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Next program to get shut down?
This poll is closed.
for the love of god please coach k 85 53.13%
Kansas 25 15.63%
Kentucky 21 13.13%
Some MVC team that no one cares about 29 18.13%
Total: 128 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Locked thread
SamuraiFoochs
Jan 16, 2007




Grimey Drawer

purkey posted:

0-131 isn't very high variance

That's not how what I'm talking about works.

The point is that the game of basketball is such that crazy poo poo happens.

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Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
https://twitter.com/umbcbookstore/status/974834084869541888

t a s t e
Sep 6, 2010

i don't like this ty jerome fellow, I'm glad he lost

Bird in a Blender
Nov 17, 2005

It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

SamuraiFoochs posted:

That's not how what I'm talking about works.

The point is that the game of basketball is such that crazy poo poo happens.

Basketball is actually pretty low variance. Look at the NBA, there are huge gaps in records for the best and worst teams. Baseball is super high variance with the best teams around 0.65 and the worst around 0.35 winning %.

Jagged Jim
Sep 26, 2013

I... I can only look though the window...

https://twitter.com/umbcbookstore/status/974852542743154690?s=20

pubic works project
Jan 28, 2005

No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.
https://twitter.com/littlecaesars/status/974767358584737793?s=21

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


i literally never thought this would happen

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004



crean owns, he's the most glengarry glen ross person in all of college basketball

iospace
Jan 19, 2038



https://twitter.com/littlecaesars/status/974858912745902080

pubic works project
Jan 28, 2005

No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.

Oh poo poo they're not backing out!

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

lol the orange background is so fitting

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


little ceasar's decided to offer it's product for free when, after a quick review, they determined what they had to offer was little caesar's pizza

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf
They also probably have an insurance policy on it


Some underwriter is probably gonna have a bunch of angry emails on Monday

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

R.D. Mangles posted:

little ceasar's decided to offer it's product for free when, after a quick review, they determined what they had to offer was little caesar's pizza

There is no better example of setting the correct level of expectations than the Hot n Ready. Say what you will about the pizza but it is definitely always both of those things

pubic works project
Jan 28, 2005

No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.
Dude just got some $$$$

https://twitter.com/byberkowitz/status/974857134365204480?s=21

SamuraiFoochs
Jan 16, 2007




Grimey Drawer

Bird in a Blender posted:

Basketball is actually pretty low variance. Look at the NBA, there are huge gaps in records for the best and worst teams. Baseball is super high variance with the best teams around 0.65 and the worst around 0.35 winning %.

In a SERIES. Not in single games.

Probably Magic
Oct 9, 2012

Looking cute, feeling cute.
IT WASN'T US, FUCKERSSSSSSSSSSSS

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

SamuraiFoochs posted:

In a SERIES. Not in single games.

The season is composed of a bunch of single games and the best team wins them way more often in basketball than in any other major sport

Like one game is always prone to flukey stuff but basketball generally is very low variance relative to other sports

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
not the gdt

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮

MourningView posted:

There is no better example of setting the correct level of expectations than the Hot n Ready. Say what you will about the pizza but it is definitely always both of those things

When I was in college, I got a Little Caesars at least once a week, mainly because it was cheap. So did literally everyone else in America who went to college.

AsInHowe
Jan 11, 2007

red winged angel
https://mobile.twitter.com/UCFKnights/status/974852800193728513

SamuraiFoochs
Jan 16, 2007




Grimey Drawer

MourningView posted:

The season is composed of a bunch of single games and the best team wins them way more often in basketball than in any other major sport

Right but the sport is designed such that crazy poo poo happens in a one and done situation, especially since it's 5 on 5 unlike say football where talent gaps are typically more ironclad. In hoops all it takes is one guy.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


the Miracle on Parquet

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

SamuraiFoochs posted:

Right but the sport is designed such that crazy poo poo happens in a one and done situation, especially since it's 5 on 5 unlike say football where talent gaps are typically more ironclad. In hoops all it takes is one guy.

Being 5 on 5 is a big part of what makes it low variance specifically because the best guy has a wildly outsized influence and the best teams are usually the one with the best players.

SamuraiFoochs
Jan 16, 2007




Grimey Drawer

MourningView posted:

Being 5 on 5 is a big part of what makes it low variance specifically because the best guy has a wildly outsized influence and the best teams are usually the one with the best players

I'm wrong. I'm tired. This rules. Let's focus on that instead.

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001


Little Caesars is gonna sue for that $10k

MC Fruit Stripe
Nov 26, 2002

around and around we go
Hell I can't even tell which side each of you is arguing for.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

MC Fruit Stripe posted:

Hell I can't even tell which side each of you is arguing for.

Lol your team lost

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


Korranus posted:

Little Caesars is gonna sue for that $10k

Nah, they took an insurance policy out probably, just in case.

MC Fruit Stripe
Nov 26, 2002

around and around we go

MourningView posted:

Lol your team lost
Of that I'm sure you can both agree!

e: football is the lowest variance sport, baseball the highest. you've been educated.
e2: actually you know what, I don't know if I believe that

AsInHowe
Jan 11, 2007

red winged angel
https://mobile.twitter.com/SA/status/974861938642501632

Super Jay Mann
Nov 6, 2008

Huh well what do you know

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/want-to-know-who-will-win-during-march-madness-go-back-to-the-preseason-polls/

quote:

What team might be overrated according to the preseason poll? Virginia, the No. 1 seed in the South region, tops this list, as they didn’t crack the top 25 in either preseason poll. Virginia always plays incredible defense, but this team lacks for NBA talent.

:thunk:

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

iospace posted:

Nah, they took an insurance policy out probably, just in case.

They are privately owned so it might be different, but if I recall companies have to take out insurance for these things because they can’t gamble with shareholder money.

In those cases, the business is almost always pulling for the upset so they have to “pay out.” Its better advertising.

MC Fruit Stripe
Nov 26, 2002

around and around we go
I actually wanted to like this article because statistical analysis, even of a thing I'd rather not have happened, is a good thing. But they're comparing preseason polls with RPI. Who gives a crap about RPI? Come at me with "preseason polls vs Kenpom" or SRS or tournament seeding or literally anything but RPI.

He also had to exclude any game in which the teams weren't ranked (since there's no way to compare two unranked teams). Including those would be little better than a coinflip, which would drag the poll's win% down from 71.8 toward's RPI's 69.1%.

So it's an interesting idea, but there's some flaws there that prevent us from really drawing any conclusions I think.

kayakyakr
Feb 16, 2004

Kayak is true

Got some money by whatever bigger mid-major hires him for $400k after this season.

$35k in bonuses. That's not even a blip when it comes to P5 contracts...

Troy Queef
Jan 12, 2013




it's a shame the Little Caesars by my house closed last month, I coulda used a free lunch

also, if you like podcasts:
https://twitter.com/stavvybaby/status/974851240558518272

Niwrad
Jul 1, 2008

The UMBC social media person is still talking tons of poo poo and it's great.

https://twitter.com/UMBCAthletics/status/974875962616811520

the mean lunch lady
Jun 24, 2009

went mad at sea
lots were drawn
Kroenke didn't survive
he was delicious

Troy Queef posted:

it's a shame the Little Caesars by my house closed last month, I coulda used a free lunch

also, if you like podcasts:
https://twitter.com/stavvybaby/status/974851240558518272

aw, look at his old nice head of hair

Troy Queef
Jan 12, 2013




the mean lunch lady posted:

aw, look at his old nice head of hair

hell yeah dude

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Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




That was the greatest opening round in tournament history.

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