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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Meh, Ronny got through Iran Contra without a scratch without Fox News. But I don't disagree in general. Trump is going to get away with this just like Reagen got through Iran Contra.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:32
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Prester Jane posted:At this point the first thing a massive blue wave in 2020 is gonna accomplish is to force us all to find out exactly what happens when Trump refuses to abdicate and a significant portion of our population* supports him. At this point I would expect a 2020 blue wave to result in a pretty significant outbreak of (violent) civil unrest. This isn't going to happen because the moneyed class has vastly more to lose from a national collapse than they do to gain, and Trump is nothing without their backing. America's 1% obviously prefers Republicans, but they prefer a functional country to a collapsed one even more, and they know their interests are still mostly served under a Democratic administration. empty whippet box posted:This is a totally reasonable take on a report we know next to nothing about. Totally. Your brain is whole and unbroken Next to nothing? We have the top-line conclusion that is going to be the overwhelming public takeaway: Mueller did not find evidence of collusion/conspiracy, and no one else is going to jail. Regardless of the smaller embarassing poo poo that'll be in the report, that top-line is far and away the most important thing. Like, of course we don't have the full report, but it's insane to act like we don't have the most important 80%.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:34
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empty whippet box posted:This is a totally reasonable take on a report we know next to nothing about. Totally. Your brain is whole and unbroken Again I emphasize that the actual contents of the report are totally irrelevant at this point- what really matters is the narrative about what's in the report. (This isn't a high school debate contest, facts don't matter in the loving slightest) I would argue that the (naive) belief that the actual contents of the report will counteract the established narrative about the report is what is "broke brained"- especially in light of the events of the past three years.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:37
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Prester Jane posted:Trump firing Mueller would have been so much better of an outcome than what just happened. (Basically the worst-case scenario occurred today.) I am genuinely kind of struggling to come up with a worse realistic scenario than what actually just took place. The combined GDP of the areas and states that would "rebel" in such an event make some of the Eastern European Bloc countries economies look absolutely robust. The military besides the Marines can't stand the orange chucklefuck. The police on the other hand I'll give you for most, as it seems fascism has spread hard along with a gang culture of good old white boys. I like your compaction cycle theory, but a lot of the red states would dry up in a month without the government and the successful states to leech off of; it's why their "civil war II" fantasy is so loving laughable TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Mar 25, 2019 |
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Mar 25, 2019 04:37
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TulliusCicero posted:It does make me think if Nixon had just held his ground like a petulant child could he have stuck it out? He didn't have Fox News and the right wing machine to be fair Nixon was going to be impeached and that impeachment trial was going to convict him. Congress in 1974 had enough shame to do its job. Fox News was created specifically to prevent this from happening again.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:38
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Ronald Reagan got lucky that HW was elected and pretty much shut down the Iran-Contra investigation.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:38
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Prester Jane posted:Trump firing Mueller would have been so much better of an outcome than what just happened. (Basically the worst-case scenario occurred today.) I am genuinely kind of struggling to come up with a worse realistic scenario than what actually just took place. You predicted something similar for 2018.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:38
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Z. Autobahn posted:Next to nothing? We have the top-line conclusion that is going to be the overwhelming public takeaway: Mueller did not find evidence of collusion/conspiracy, and no one else is going to jail. Regardless of the smaller embarassing poo poo that'll be in the report, that top-line is far and away the most important thing. nitpicking here, but it's not that mueller didn't find evidence, he just didn't find enough evidence to convince a reasonable jury that trump & co were guilty of russia-related crimes. republicans are already pushing the narrative that the report affirmatively states that no collusion occurred, when really we already have evidence of collusion, and mueller may have found more, but it wasn't enough
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Mar 25, 2019 04:38
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GreyjoyBastard posted:You predicted something similar for 2018. She predicts something similar for every day ending with 'y'.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:39
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Captain Oblivious posted:You've literally never advocated for a position in this thread, only attacked the notion of Trump being connected to Russia/Putin in any way. Do you have any actual opinions or is that it? What is it you actually believe Of course he's guilty, but it'll never catch up to him, because that's capitalism. He's a symptom, not the disease.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:41
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Z. Autobahn posted:This isn't going to happen because the moneyed class has vastly more to lose from a national collapse than they do to gain, and Trump is nothing without their backing. America's 1% obviously prefers Republicans, but they prefer a functional country to a collapsed one even more, and they know their interests are still mostly served under a Democratic administration. Given that Trump went on TV and admitted collusion and obstruction, this really was the best case scenario for them. It's drat upsetting.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:44
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Z. Autobahn posted:This isn't going to happen because the moneyed class has vastly more to lose from a national collapse than they do to gain, and Trump is nothing without their backing. America's 1% obviously prefers Republicans, but they prefer a functional country to a collapsed one even more, and they know their interests are still mostly served under a Democratic administration. IMO you are assigning a level of self-awareness and rational long term thinking to the moneyed class that they simply do not possess. You are also ignoring the huge portion of the monies class that is actively fueling/manipulating Narrativists in furtherance of their own agendas. (E.g. the Koch bros, Betsy DeVos, the Council for National Policy, etc) The moneyed class is not going to save society from fascism out of a collective sense of their own enlightened self interest. If anything they will clambor over the piles of corpses to try and crown themselves the new King.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:44
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Gaunab posted:Ronald Reagan got lucky that HW was elected and pretty much shut down the Iran-Contra investigation. Looking the other way from rampant criminality is one of the true bipartisan triumphs of US governance.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:46
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Prester Jane posted:Again I emphasize that the actual contents of the report are totally irrelevant at this point- what really matters is the narrative about what's in the report. The narrative will follow what's in the report, at least to some degree. If there's enough poo poo in the report to make Trump look even more guilty than he does now but not guilty enough to straight up indict, the narrative will be different from what it would be if the report straight up says "yeah we didn't find poo poo". What's in the report will matter. How much is where we hopefully can disagree amicably.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:49
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Midgetskydiver posted:If there's enough poo poo in the report to make Trump look even more guilty than he does now but not guilty enough to straight up indict, this is literally the case, per the barr letter. and that's the most favorable gloss barr could put on it
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Mar 25, 2019 04:50
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I'm hoping Mueller goes in history as the guy who couldn't make an obstruction case against the dude who admitted to firing Comey to protect himself. Instead he'll get Mark Fuhrman's job at Fox News and will be treated like he's the grandmaster of being fair and balanced because the GOP hated him for a year.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:50
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GreyjoyBastard posted:You predicted something similar for 2018. For 2018 I predicted a rising wave of "popcorn kettle" terrorism- random attacks by lone wolf's (and eventually small groups) that would rise in frequency until they became an indecipherable background roar (much like how popcorn in a kettle starts out as a few isolated pops until they rise in frequency to the point where they are an indistinguishable background roar). I also predicted that McConnel was clearly unconcerned about losing his power. I do not recall predicting that the midterm elections would result in anything but an a accekeration of the ongoing popcorn kettle terrorism. (Feel free to quote me stating otherwise though) Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 04:55 on Mar 25, 2019 |
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Mar 25, 2019 04:51
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Prester Jane posted:What I call "Cooperators" will never under any circumstances pursue any course of action that they believe would jeopardize their personal status quo/their personal control over societies resources. The DNC (and the oldschool RNC establishment) is dominated by the Cooperator This sounds like someone halfway towards developing class consciousness on weed.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:51
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Midgetskydiver posted:The narrative will follow what's in the report, at least to some degree. If there's enough poo poo in the report to make Trump look even more guilty than he does now but not guilty enough to straight up indict, the narrative will be different from what it would be if the report straight up says "yeah we didn't find poo poo". It won't matter in the slightest IMO. The narrative has already been set and that's pretty much the game as far as the Mueller report goes.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:52
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Z. Autobahn posted:Next to nothing? We have the top-line conclusion that is going to be the overwhelming public takeaway: Mueller did not find evidence of collusion/conspiracy, and no one else is going to jail. Regardless of the smaller embarassing poo poo that'll be in the report, that top-line is far and away the most important thing. At this point, I guess it doesn't matter - the headlines say "no collusion" - and if any "correction" happens, it will fall on overhwelmingly deaf ears.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:53
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I have only heard bad news for detractors of the president so that gold star family must be going through absolute dog poo poo right now.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:54
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Also I doubt the report is coming out in any form that doesn't waste a whole cartridge full of black ink on black bars, even to congress. Hell, the thing might be shredded by now.
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Mar 25, 2019 04:54
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Prester Jane posted:For 2018 I predicted a rising wave of "popcorn kettle" terrorism- random attacks by lone wolf's (and eventually small groups) that would rise in frequency until they became an indecipherable background roar (much like how popcorn in a kettle starts out as a few isolated pops until they rise in frequency to the point where they are an indistinguishable background roar). I also predicted that McConnel was clearly ubxoncerbed about losing his power. I do not recall predicting that the midterm elections would result in anything but an a celebration of the popcorn kettle terrorism. (Feel free to quote me stating otherwise though) What is the distinction between that and your new prediction? edited to be less dismissive
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Mar 25, 2019 04:56
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Just think. Mueller and Comey the two heroes of thousands of G men and the paragons of truth justice and the American way are two of the most effective handmaidens of American fascism.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:03
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GreyjoyBastard posted:What is the distinction between that and your new prediction? For 2018 I predicted a steadily rising wave of right-wing terrorism. (And was dismissed just as breezily then as I am being dismissed now) Now I am predicting something along the lines of a full-blown breakdown in civil order if there is a blue wave in 2020. To be specific I am predicting that if Trump loses re-election he will refuse to abdicate power and will be supported by a pretty substantial portion of our population as well as most of Law Enforcement and a non-trivial portion of the military. This will be well beyond a simple constitutional crisis and would veer dangerously close to "civil war" territory. So for 2018 I was predicting more-or-less exactly what actually happened in terms of stochastic terrorism- but those were largely the isolated (albeit frequent) acts of uncoordinated cells. What I am talking about now is a period of time where right wing militia's will be operating checkpoints with the full blessing of local law enforcenent. I'm not taking any stabs whatsoever on how that whole mess ultimately pans put mind you- at this point it just seems really obvious to me that something like that is where we are headed right now.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:09
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mcmagic posted:Just think. Mueller and Comey the two heroes of thousands of G men and the paragons of truth justice and the American way are two of the most effective handmaidens of American fascism. You're really enjoying wallowing in your pessimism about this, aren't you?
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Mar 25, 2019 05:10
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Kobayashi posted:Of course he's guilty, but it'll never catch up to him, because that's capitalism. He's a symptom, not the disease. What does that have to do with Capitalism? Why are you people talking about a civil war? Do you actually think this way?
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Mar 25, 2019 05:10
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https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/1110007022089572352
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Mar 25, 2019 05:12
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Prester Jane posted:For 2018 I predicted a steadily rising wave of right-wing terrorism. (And was dismissed just as breezily then as I am being dismissed now) Now I am predicting something along the lines of a full-blown breakdown in civil order if there is a blue wave in 2020. You think Trump losing in 2020 and instituting full fascism in response would be close to civil war territory?
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Mar 25, 2019 05:12
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Prester Jane posted:For 2018 I predicted a steadily rising wave of right-wing terrorism. (And was dismissed just as breezily then as I am being dismissed now) Now I am predicting something along the lines of a full-blown breakdown in civil order if there is a blue wave in 2020. I think this proposition is highly unlikely and veering way too much in the direction of Climactic Confrontation Between Good And Evil, but it is at least more falsifiable than "there will be right wing terrorist attacks". Okay! Maybe we'll revisit this in two years!
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Mar 25, 2019 05:14
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empty whippet box posted:You're really enjoying wallowing in your pessimism about this, aren't you? lots of people are
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Mar 25, 2019 05:15
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Nonsense posted:I have only heard bad news for detractors of the president so that gold star family must be going through absolute dog poo poo right now. Which gold star family? He's shat on several so far.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:17
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I think this proposition is highly unlikely and veering way too much in the direction of Climactic Confrontation Between Good And Evil, but it is at least more falsifiable than "there will be right wing terrorist attacks". There was a steady rise in right-wing terror attacks throughout 2018. If there had not been you would be trumpeting that my predictions had been falsefied. Similarly KM and I basically made a two woman stand against this thread when we asserted in late November 2016 that Trump's election would precipitate a significant increase in hate crimes. That was a fully falsifiable prediction that has since been vindicated a dozen times over.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:18
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With the Changing of the Guard, so to speak, with Generations, I see an interesting pattern. Traditionally important topics diminish. There are very few people in my age bracket who care about gun rights, for example. But they certainly is a lot of people who care about copyright law. Outside of AOC, I've see very few people really recognize this fact. I'm interested in how things will go 4 or 5 elections from now. By that point the Old Guard will be almost completely dead. I won't expect a push leftward or rightward, as it's not as if the political breakdown has changed dramatically. They'll be more liberal policies with acceptance of certain groups, but I wouldn't expect a humongous shift. But I am interested to see when the dialogue changes. With the shrinking religious demographic, it will be interesting to hear last people talk religion and then so many other people talk about student debt. I guess I'm just saying is I'm curious how gradual the change will be and who is going to be left behind and not realizing that the old tricks don't work.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:20
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If Trump loses he will piss and moan about it and probably say it's rigged, but will ultimately leave office because he can make more money in selling his whining to whoever will listen. Remember, he loving *hates* being President by all accounts, and doesn't want to be stuck there anymore.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:20
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GreyjoyBastard posted:lots of people are Tell me about it. I'm glad that I'm in a more emotionally stable place today than I was in late 2017-early 2018, when this thread was instrumental in keeping me from a complete emotional breakdown in many ways. If me then was reading todays thread I'd be really worried about what I might do. Like, jesus christ people, take a week off from politics and go squeeze a nerf ball into oblivion or something. This isn't healthy.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:21
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Prester Jane posted:There was a steady rise in right-wing terror attacks throughout 2018. If there had not been you would be trumpeting that my predictions had been falsefied. There’s been a steady rise in right wing terrorism for at least a decade. And while it’s certainly possible that hate crimes have increased as well, we don’t really know that because the methods of data collection are extremely flawed.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:27
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Sanguinia posted:Tell me about it. I'm glad that I'm in a more emotionally stable place today than I was in late 2017-early 2018, when this thread was instrumental in keeping me from a complete emotional breakdown in many ways. If me then was reading todays thread I'd be really worried about what I might do. Yeah, ironically working 80 hours a week right now for tax season is helping me deal right now. I am so drained from being a worker drone who is literally working 9 to 8 p.m. Monday to Friday and 9 to 7 p.m. Saturday and 9 to 1 p.m. on Sunday that I can't actually manage to be worried about these things. Not saying everyone should get a job in this industry to alleviate their stress, but I am saying having things to take their mind off stuff will definitely help.
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Mar 25, 2019 05:27
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Koalas March posted:Wait do some goons actually believe NO COLLUSION despite the mountains of evidence to the contrary or do they just want this to go away because they don't want to see rich people punished for their actions Lmfao (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 25, 2019 05:31
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Covok posted:With the Changing of the Guard, so to speak, with Generations, I see an interesting pattern. Traditionally important topics diminish. There are very few people in my age bracket who care about gun rights, for example. But they certainly is a lot of people who care about copyright law. Outside of AOC, I've see very few people really recognize this fact. I'm interested in how things will go 4 or 5 elections from now. By that point the Old Guard will be almost completely dead. I won't expect a push leftward or rightward, as it's not as if the political breakdown has changed dramatically. They'll be more liberal policies with acceptance of certain groups, but I wouldn't expect a humongous shift. But I am interested to see when the dialogue changes. With the shrinking religious demographic, it will be interesting to hear last people talk religion and then so many other people talk about student debt. I guess I'm just saying is I'm curious how gradual the change will be and who is going to be left behind and not realizing that the old tricks don't work. This is something I'd be for. Lots of people, especially younger to middle aged people who make their living in media and art, are getting slowly edged out and nickel and dimed by how much worse copyright law has been getting. Every few months it or something related to it blows up as a topic on social media.
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