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Sedisp posted:This is why we all drove our hybrids into work today right? A tax subsidy still needs to be approved paid for and lobbied for. Which will still cost a gently caress load of money to let rich idiots not take the bus. I'm not sure why you are making a US specific problem into some kind of general capitalist problem when there are other capitalist countries who don't have the same issues with their electrical grid or car-centric societies. The Nordic region (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) generated about 12% of their electricity from fossil fuels in 2013. I could not find a newer report right now, but it's likely slightly lower in 2019. Norway's electric grid is almost entirely (95+%) run on hydroelectric power, for example. Most cars are obviously still run on gasoline or diesel, so that's something we can work on over time. The UK went from generating about 40% of their electricity from coal in 2012 to maybe like 6% in 2018. I think a lot of that was replaced with natural gas, but it's an improvement. Of course, phasing in electric cars should ideally be done at a pace where one does not need to scrap fully working ICE cars unnecessarily while using resources to produce new electric cars, since that could potentially be worse for the environment than just replacing them when they are no longer useful and need to be scrapped either way. ryde posted:As an aside, I've wondered if a theoretical pack with a mix of batteries and super capacitors could improve the degradation story without too much range loss. I don't think there's any super capacitors suitable for cars at the moment though? Do you mean like fast charging the capacitors and then letting them slowly and relatively gently recharge the battery as you leave the charging station, or am I completely misunderstanding you?
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Aug 20, 2019 17:40
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The Glumslinger posted:I'm sure he watched plenty of "documentaries" about what happens in tokyo subways your loss buddy
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Aug 20, 2019 17:41
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Bofast posted:Do you mean like fast charging the capacitors and then letting them slowly and relatively gently recharge the battery as you leave the charging station, or am I completely misunderstanding you? Mostly with regards to smoothing out energy recharge from regenerative breaking. I'm not sure that theres any value in having the charging a battery through the capacitor at a station, but maybe there could be an option to top up the super capacitor with supercharging and leave the battery uncharged, in case you just need a little extra range and not a full charge?
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Aug 20, 2019 17:46
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ryde posted:As an aside, I've wondered if a theoretical pack with a mix of batteries and super capacitors could improve the degradation story without too much range loss. I don't think there's any super capacitors suitable for cars at the moment though? Sorry that I missed this, Super caps are in use for hybrid powertrains because they offer a much higher power density. They however rival flywheel KERS more than batteries as both systems are much more power than energy focused. Super caps and KERS are more efficient at cycling energy back and forth but offer a lower energy density so their use cases differ. Instead of carrying around a large amount of energy of which you can regenerate some through regen braking at mediocre efficiency, you carry much lower energy that you can recycle very efficient ant much higher cycle capacity. Both systems are strictly hybrid systems and don't offer significant autonomy ranges.
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Aug 20, 2019 17:49
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Bofast posted:I'm not sure why you are making a US specific problem into some kind of general capitalist problem when there are other capitalist countries who don't have the same issues with their electrical grid or car-centric societies. Because it is a capitalism problem pollution is literally the first example any economics class will use as a market failure. Also because the US is the single greatest polluter per capita and possibly in total. If the US isn't fixed the rest of the world could completely eliminate carbon emissions, it still burns. Sedisp has issued a correction as of 18:10 on Aug 20, 2019 |
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Aug 20, 2019 18:07
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Robo Taxis are Here Tesla is clearly producing a lot of white cars lately. Today I saw a picture of a truck full of identical white Model 3’s, all with standard wheels. Curious thing is that when I look at the new car inventory, I see very few white cars available. So where are they going? And then it dawned on me. The robo taxis are here. Possible Scenario: Perhaps Tesla has found an investor that wants to invest in a fleet of robo taxis. There are many deep pocketed investors out there looking to invest in ride sharing and autonomous vehicles. Or perhaps it is Tesla themselves. If Tesla can get the autonomous software working, the economics are clear. Musk has stated that the cost of FSD is going to be going up at a steady pace, so the motivation to invest early is there. Now imagine that Tesla sets aside its more automated assembly line and paint shop to only produce identical white cars, and they dedicate the “tent” to assembling all other cars. And through this simplification perhaps they can get the automated line up to a steady 5,000 cars per week, as it was originally rated, and perhaps at the same time through this simplification they can drive the cost down. From a revenue perspective, let’s assume that all of these cars are standard cars sold at $35,000. However, it would make sense to buy them all with FSD, which is currently $6,000. So the selling price of each is $41K. All the sudden you have a steady revenue stream of $10 billion per year (5,000 cars/wk x $41k/car x 50wks). I can imagine a margin on this of 20% and rising (cash generation is even higher as much of cost is non cash depreciation, so already perhaps they generate $20k/car in cash), particularly as the functionality of FSD goes up along with higher selling price. And as they become true robo taxis, they will start to sell at a “market clearing price” that could be multiples of $41k/car. Simultaneously many more people get to experience the Model 3, which will also drive sales of higher spec cars. Until FSD is working, you rent them out or use UBER drivers. Certainly enough to cover the economics of investing in the cars now. And if you buy the cars now, as the owner you participate in the upside when they become Robo taxis. Tesla could start to run auctions and sell them off in blocks of 5,000 cars to the highest bidder. Very low selling general and administrative expenses. Will also drive up demand of S & X. Boost in revenue from super chargers as all these taxis charge allows for rapid increase in super charger infrastructure. Tesla solar provides the electricity for super charges, which is bought from individual’s roof tops and stored in Tesla batteries at charging stations, which also provide grid stabilisation through distributed power storage at all stations and homes. Could be an interesting period ahead...
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Aug 20, 2019 18:15
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Discendo Vox posted:Link please? So he posted a lot of wacky poo poo in the thread but this was the one that was a real standout. At least for me. (Sorry for the derail) https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3877653&pagenumber=1&perpage=40#post490927604 Edit: The whole "gangbangers scratching windows isn't poo poo compared to what goes down on Japanese subways" cracked me up as someone who's spent several years in Japan. The poo poo that goes down is mostly people sleeping. Because you know what people do when they are in a place that makes them feel they are in danger. They sleep. Escape From Noise has issued a correction as of 18:24 on Aug 20, 2019 |
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Aug 20, 2019 18:16
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*sees box full of diet coke bottles but none on the shelves* guys, autonomous drinks are here!
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Aug 20, 2019 18:16
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Intel&Sebastian posted:Are there any other accounts about what happens when you buy a used tesla, account/software -wise? All I've seen was the guy who bought one with the IOU-1-FSD phantom coupon attached and they invalidated it. no reason to believe it'll work any different than video game DLC. it's attached to your personal account, not the vehicle itself. Why would they pass up an opportunity to double dip? EDIT: oh yeah and the stories of people selling their cars and the new owner changing the vehicle account password but not the billing info lol idk how that stuff works tho bring back old gbs has issued a correction as of 18:20 on Aug 20, 2019 |
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Aug 20, 2019 18:16
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CharlestheHammer posted:what do you think happens in a Walmart the poors stare and whisper to one another about the man wrapped in tissue paper and leaking hand sanitizer i'm guessing Siljmonster posted:They film porn on every subway on would be much more impressive than in
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Aug 20, 2019 18:18
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I just take the Vengabus everywhere.Happy Noodle Boy posted:Robo Taxis are Here Lol, these cars are being buried in the desert like Atari ET cartridges, and Tesla is putting each one on the books as a sale.
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Aug 20, 2019 18:26
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Dezinus posted:
the part about text updates is especially laffo it's like they jumped from a car in the 80s to a Tesla today with no idea that there've been improvements in between
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Aug 20, 2019 18:54
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ah, the arcane technomancy of online service appointments. Known only to the select few archCEOs of Silica
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bring back old gbs posted:no reason to believe it'll work any different than video game DLC. it's attached to your personal account, not the vehicle itself. Why would they pass up an opportunity to double dip? It's worse than dlc though. If I smash my phone and then buy a new one all the apps transfer over and it's fine. It was posted here about a guy who totalled his tesla with FSD and when he bought a replacement he had to pay for the FSD again.
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Aug 20, 2019 18:58
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Combat Theory posted:That will never be a thing at the required battery sizes. is that more of a "we need to bake it into the chassis to make it safe" kind of thing, where it's unfeasible to swap them out without basically stripping the whole car down? I could see battery replacements as a long-term scheduled service thing (like after several years) and there's a bunch of research going on into recycling batteries to recover the lithium etc, but if it's too difficult to replace them in all the cars... this is probly a stupid question, but is it really that hard to make them accessible from under the car? no way of adding access panels in a way that doesn't compromise the structural integrity? a lot of the renders for various EVs make it look like you can just slot in a tray full of batteries, and obviously it's more complicated than that but... is it though??? I'm guessing yeah it is but how come?
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Aug 20, 2019 19:12
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Yes it's complicated not just due to accessibility but due to the required amount of rigidity between the chassis structure and the battery. You can't just hang it in with some quick connects. You are basically looking at 3 options: welding the battery tray in, using a combination of rivets and glue (this is a preferred method for general chassis construction of dissimilar or heat sensitive material) or bolts bolts bolts Bolting is to be avoided because it's expensive as hell and opens up corrosion problems and paths for water ingress but it's a common method in early designs and first gen vehicles (you know when some engineers had the thumb down during development about the possibility that these batteries may fail under warranty). As soon as you are looking at a riveted, glued or welded pack, forget it. Also regardless of construction style, the entire interior from front to rear has to come out which alone means labour costs in the 4 digits and is something no OEM wants to do because of the huge risk of damaging interior pieces or painted surfaces. Combat Theory has issued a correction as of 19:48 on Aug 20, 2019 |
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Aug 20, 2019 19:21
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battery swaps don't make much sense when the battery is most of the cost of the car
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Aug 20, 2019 19:25
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The 40 kwh Leaf battery is about 7000 € before taxes and without labour but I didn't ask if that's with or without dealer margin. Its also the easiest swappable pack on the market right now as it's air cooled architecture kinda dictates a very open design from below. Also cheaper than a liquid cooled pack obviously
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Aug 20, 2019 19:40
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Combat Theory posted:There won't a single universal powertrain solution for automotive mobility. They all have pros and cons and should be optimized for specific roles and cases that play into their strengths. this is one of the single hardest things to get people to understand, in my experience. Everyone thinks their own special edge case (I am poor itinerant on-call grandfather clock delivery technician with no off-street parking place to recharge my car) is a complete dealbreaker for everyone else too.
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Aug 20, 2019 19:41
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Combat Theory posted:Yes it's complicated not just due to accessibility but due to the required amount of rigidity between the chassis structure and the battery. You can't just hang it in with some quick connects. You are basically looking at 3 options: welding the battery tray in, using a combination of rivets and glue (this is a preferred method for general chassis construction of dissimilar or heat sensitive material) or bolts bolts bolts  I was wondering about bolting it in solidly so the corrosion thing makes sense I guess I was hoping for a system that's most accessible from underneath - I guess almost like putting batteries in a toy car, where there's a reinforced space to mount it, and the connectors run in through a port so you can do all the work without needing to disassemble anything inside. I get that the batteries are kinda crammed into the floor space on most cars now, but say they improved battery density to the point where you didn't need to use all available space (assuming they don't go the MOAR RANGE route) - would it be possible to build that kind of accessible-underneath system at all? what about some kind of tray that slides in from the side? (maybe when you open a door, so at least a little protected from the elements) I don't know cars so these are probably bad questions, I'm just wondering if swappability (as a major servicing job at least) could ever be practical
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Aug 20, 2019 20:04
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Most batteries are swappable as a major service job as is pretty much every component in a personal vehicle. The question is more, is it worth it to change? If you get your 7 or 8 years worth of life out of the car that you bought new for around 30k and the residual value with a new battery is barely 10k, is it worth it investing about the same amount? Regarding the technical questions, energy density can not be significantly increased. Again batteries are very simple for that matter. The way to cram more energy in is to thin out the insulating membrane, cell casing or in general squeezing more electrode and electrolyte material into the same volume and if you do that you reduce the mechanical and thermal safety reserves of the cell accordingly. Said otherwise, if you again want to prevent sudden incarceration, you can only get so much energy density out of it. Energy density is balanced against power density so if you want to make a cell that holds a lot of energy you can't charge it as fast as a balanced cell design and neither power as big of a motor with it. The general solution of the industry was therefore to rather simply build bigger packs which means designs like the leaf where you can actually access the traction battery at a relatively high convenience will give way to more of the tesla design where the battery is just an integral chassis part. Oh have I mentioned that gross vehicle weight is the absolute number 1 killer for energy conservation? Good thing that we essentially doubled our vehicle weight in the last 40 years. Fuuuutuuuureeee E: im sounding pretty gnarly about the matter and I did some large effort posts in YOSPOS about automotive powertrain engineering but please don't think I'm trying to preach that EVs are the devil. They have their definitive place in the automotive mix of the future and it will be significant, but I much rather would like to see economic EV developments for low prices, short ranges with little weight and cheap to replace batteries because before even thinking about co2 the urban centers need to get breathable atmosphere again and that won't happen with an entry price to the EV market that rivals an apartment on the countryside and a non existent second hand market because of the horrendous parts cost. And waiting for public transportation improvements with our current government is... Let's say a daring gamble.... Combat Theory has issued a correction as of 20:28 on Aug 20, 2019 |
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Aug 20, 2019 20:17
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Combat Theory posted:The 40 kwh Leaf battery is about 7000 € before taxes and without labour but I didn't ask if that's with or without dealer margin. This is where I fall over laughing at 3Os talking about 10 y/o EVs trickling down. Batteries will fail. Motors will fail. Without significant changes in engineering, design, and manufacture I can't imagine how EVs or Hybrids will be able to supplant ICE vehicles especially when you start talking about 'used'. For a huge subset of the population spending more than $3k on a car is impossible let alone 7k for a new battery pack. Which goes back to the most obvious point....EVs barely address any of the issues with transportation and in this particular instance exacerbate pre-existing socioeconomic disparities. This is even ignoring the $500 poo poo box market which environmental impacts aside a tank of fuel is a tank of fuel and if your shitbox goes you're getting there. An EV that can't hold charge though? Welp hope you like dying on the side of the road/middle of traffic/10 feet out of your driveway.
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Aug 20, 2019 20:33
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The argument for lower weight cars is a losing one as long as people use safety performance like IIHS tests as a purchasing criteria. Heavier vehicles are safer in crashes. re: bolting in the battery pack, I learned something very interesting today but you have to wait until September 4th before we’re allowed to say anything. I found out last night I will get to drive the Taycan a month from now. I’m very excited.
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Aug 20, 2019 20:37
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rex rabidorum vires posted:This is where I fall over laughing at 3Os talking about 10 y/o EVs trickling down. Batteries will fail. Motors will fail. Without significant changes in engineering, design, and manufacture I can't imagine how EVs or Hybrids will be able to supplant ICE vehicles especially when you start talking about 'used'. For a huge subset of the population spending more than $3k on a car is impossible let alone 7k for a new battery pack. Which goes back to the most obvious point....EVs barely address any of the issues with transportation and in this particular instance exacerbate pre-existing socioeconomic disparities. This is even ignoring the $500 poo poo box market which environmental impacts aside a tank of fuel is a tank of fuel and if your shitbox goes you're getting there. An EV that can't hold charge though? Welp hope you like dying on the side of the road/middle of traffic/10 feet out of your driveway. what if you spend $1500 on the car and $1000 on a diesel generator you run in the trunk to keep the battery topped up?
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Aug 20, 2019 20:40
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I was thinking more about battery costs coming down, and recycling becoming more viable so it makes sense to swap out a battery and reprocess it. So maybe the idea of replacing batteries and being less wasteful (I know batteries are already environmentally bad but still) could become an industry standard, so cars are designed around that instead of being junked because it's cheaper I've read a lot of youre posts so I get the sense the industry isn't, uh, totally mindful of making neat serviceable machines, just blue sky thinking here like our good buddy elon! Same with the battery density really, I was thinking more next-gen batteries with more efficient chemistry, and solid-state design for the safety aspect, that kind of thing. More as a "what if" than "it's just around the corner!" maybe they should just get to regulating a class of small short-range car that uses a minimal battery, make it serviceable like this, and give tax breaks because it's at least more environmentally friendly than a road trip tank actually just invest in public transport... h-hello?? Combat Theory posted:E: im sounding pretty gnarly about the matter and I did some large effort posts in YOSPOS about automotive powertrain engineering but please don't think I'm trying to preach that EVs are the devil. They have their definitive place in the automotive mix of the future and it will be significant, but I much rather would like to see economic EV developments for low prices, short ranges with little weight and cheap to replace batteries because before even thinking about co2 the urban centers need to get breathable atmosphere again and that won't happen with an entry price to the EV market that rivals an apartment on the countryside and a non existent second hand market because of the horrendous parts cost. And waiting for public transportation improvements with our current government is... Let's say a daring gamble.... oh nah I've seen you say smaller EVs are at least a decent tradeoff for now, and Big ICE for longer journeys so you're not dragging phat batts all over the country baka kaba has issued a correction as of 20:45 on Aug 20, 2019 |
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Aug 20, 2019 20:40
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drgitlin posted:The argument for lower weight cars is a losing one as long as people use safety performance like IIHS tests as a purchasing criteria. Heavier vehicles are safer in crashes. the taycan press drip on ars is pretty funny
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Aug 20, 2019 20:41
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Combat Theory posted:Bolting is to be avoided because it's expensive as hell what if we use 2 bolts and a plastic clip
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Aug 20, 2019 20:43
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baka kaba posted:actually just invest in public transport... h-hello?? And have to ride a bus? Next to all those filthy menials?! I mean sure the world is burning but let's not go crazy here!
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Aug 20, 2019 20:45
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^^^ what if the bus was like a fancy restaurant on wheels (reservations only of course)BMan posted:what if we use 2 bolts and a plastic clip "lose the clip or you're fired"
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Aug 20, 2019 20:45
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BMan posted:what if we use 2 bolts and a plastic clip Hold up, that sounds expensive and time consuming to assemble, what if we skip the bolts?
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Aug 20, 2019 20:45
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Baka kaba small disclosure here, I took my personal consequences and quit my job in the automotive industry because of the disgraceful politics that are going down in the powertrain sector at the moment and in the forseeable future on both an industrial and political level (and to a degree the customer that equals "big and heavy" with "better") so at one point in my life I decided that no, we aren't going down any route that I see yields a responsible and wise guidance for individual mobility. So while yes there's some shinies in the bowl of crap like batteries that don't explode when you poke them a bit, overall I just don't feel like dealing with it anymore. Maybe I'm overly negative due to that and those questions are better answered by a level minded person.
Combat Theory has issued a correction as of 21:04 on Aug 20, 2019 |
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Aug 20, 2019 21:01
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baka kaba posted:^^^ what if the bus was like a fancy restaurant on wheels (reservations only of course) it would go out of business, every single time
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Aug 20, 2019 21:02
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BMan posted:what if we use 2 bolts and a plastic clip The bolts mean we don't need the clip and the clip means we don't need the bolts so remove them all.
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Aug 20, 2019 21:26
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ianmacdo posted:It's worse than dlc though. If I smash my phone and then buy a new one all the apps transfer over and it's fine. It was posted here about a guy who totalled his tesla with FSD and when he bought a replacement he had to pay for the FSD again. 
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Aug 20, 2019 21:36
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https://twitter.com/PlainSite/status/1163907853544857600?s=19 Lol at this whole thread
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Aug 20, 2019 21:41
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pissing Walmart off lmao good loving job I actually did construction inspection for Walmart’s for a couple of years up in Michigan. they absolutely and I genuinely mean absolutely DO NOT gently caress around with their buildings. they have a single overbuilt design that’s used nationwide so it accounts for everything. all work is inspected locally and by Walmart construction division. my notes needed to be loving perfect and they’d pick up on poo poo happening in the background of photos I was taking when inspecting. their smooth concrete floor slabs are loving awesome with pretty much no tolerance for error when being poured. Happy Noodle Boy has issued a correction as of 21:53 on Aug 20, 2019 |
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Aug 20, 2019 21:50
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https://twitter.com/kernelofwisdom/status/1163910320315916288
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Aug 20, 2019 21:52
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Tesla taking a strong anti-Walmart stance should ingratiate them to their target Three Olives demo
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Aug 20, 2019 22:02
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why does everything elon touches catch fire
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Aug 20, 2019 22:07
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Waldens better stay away from all clearly marked emergency vehicles for the time being. Or not.
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Aug 20, 2019 22:10
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Combat Theory posted:Baka kaba small disclosure here, I took my personal consequences and quit my job in the automotive industry because of the disgraceful politics that are going down in the powertrain sector at the moment and in the forseeable future on both an industrial and political level (and to a degree the customer that equals "big and heavy" with "better") so at one point in my life I decided that no, we aren't going down any route that I see yields a responsible and wise guidance for individual mobility. So while yes there's some shinies in the bowl of crap like batteries that don't explode when you poke them a bit, overall I just don't feel like dealing with it anymore. Maybe I'm overly negative due to that and those questions are better answered by a level minded person. nah man it's cool, you're a v good poster and it's good to get some insider knowledge, especially if you're not inclined to paint a positive picture of everything, y'know? hope you're doing good though bud and I mean, a lot of this is hypothetical anyway because our habits are gonna have to change real quick whether we like it or not
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Aug 20, 2019 22:14
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