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Draft picks, even very high “pro ready can’t miss” ones, bust all the drat time though. So if their plan is really that they can just draft a billion dudes in the first three rounds and have a stable of studs around Tua (who might bust himself for all we know)... that seems, uh, optimistic and reckless.
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Sep 18, 2019 03:50
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Also plenty of turnarounds worked without doing a mega purge.
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Sep 18, 2019 03:54
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Docjowles posted:Draft picks, even very high “pro ready can’t miss” ones, bust all the drat time though. So if their plan is really that they can just draft a billion dudes in the first three rounds and have a stable of studs around Tua (who might bust himself for all we know)... that seems, uh, optimistic and reckless. the dolphins hit on their picks pretty consistently (not perfectly but above average); it’s signing them to a second contract where things usually go awry
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Sep 18, 2019 03:56
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Even if they hadn’t purged the roster it still wouldn’t be good enough AND they wouldn’t have Tua AND they’d still need to hit on their draft picks and free agents they’d just have less flexibility to do so. There’s a reason 90% of Dolphin fans are totally cool with it all. We’ve been mediocre for 35 years. I’d rather risk building it from the ground up and fail than continue to tread water. You can say “look at what happened with Luck!” And that’s fine but he also took a barren team to 11-5 the next 2 years after the tank and the main problem is that they didn’t put anyone around him in that time span (or a couple more years after that) not so much the original horrible roster he was drafted on to.
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Sep 18, 2019 04:02
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The new roster is going to consist of tons of rookies thrust into starting roles and overpaid vets that couldn't get signed anywhere else. Tua would be hosed. They're tanking too hard.
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Sep 18, 2019 04:09
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fsif posted:The new roster is going to consist of tons of rookies thrust into starting roles and overpaid vets that couldn't get signed anywhere else.  )Even if Tua is good and isn't ruined by being buried in poo poo, the Dolphins won't be competitive for a while. Nobody is going to want to sign with the Dolphins next year if they go 2-14 or worse.
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Sep 18, 2019 04:15
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NutShellBill posted:So... what is the strategy in Miami right now? Kiko was traded a while ago. Lol
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Sep 18, 2019 04:27
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I think there was a bunch of factors that were invariably going to naturally push the Dolphins towards a "rebuilding" year, probably most notable one involving a roster full of bad Mike Tannenbaum contracts that would have necessarily restricted their ability to do anything all that meaningful in free agency. You had a bunch of players that weren't playing up to their contracts, weren't useful in new schemes, and came with dead cap penalties. The alternative was to be able to spend like $15-20m total in acquiring players, many of whom would have likely had to have been bad/worthless stop-gap players whose biggest merits were some basic scheme fit and would have only continued to reinforce the same problem. On top of that, it was a pretty poo poo year for them to try and rebuild the units they really needed to fix with players who fit who weren't just space-fillers to be replaced later. What they're doing now is certainly not without risks, but your opportunity cost here pretty well sucked rear end too.
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Sep 18, 2019 04:33
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Tunsil will no longer be cost controlled by the time the Dolphins might be remotely competitive and they probably wouldn’t pay him what he was likely to get on the market. The Fitzpatrick thing was far less defensible but he also wanted out, it’s not like they were shopping him before he demanded a trade.
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Sep 18, 2019 04:38
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Docjowles posted:Draft picks, even very high “pro ready can’t miss” ones, bust all the drat time though. So if their plan is really that they can just draft a billion dudes in the first three rounds and have a stable of studs around Tua (who might bust himself for all we know)... that seems, uh, optimistic and reckless. Thats a fair point but the more draft picks you have, the greater the chance of hitting on at least some of them. I think the Dolphins personnel strategy is good but the coaching makes me think they're gonna gently caress it all up
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Sep 18, 2019 09:08
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I think all the Dolphins moves make sense in isolation, with the possible exception of Fitzpatrick, but the overall effect has been much more damaging than expected I do think the cap space will be helpful, as the Jags showed the effect you can have buying paying the bad team premium in the form of first year bonuses and generally front loaded contracts. The only issue will be if there are actually players worth signing in free agency
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Sep 18, 2019 09:45
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btw Chris Grier straight up said they didn’t plan to trade Tunsil or Minkah. The Tunsil offer was just too good to pass up and Minkah demanded a trade. But those moves weren’t originally part of “the plan”.
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Sep 18, 2019 10:48
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Oh yeah, no doubt. The Tunsil move made sense in isolation, it just lead to the Minkah issue and the combined loss of talent means that we'll have no idea how good Rosen, any of the RBs or any of thy WRs are because our line is even more of a tire fire than the last fifty times our line was a tire fire.
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Sep 18, 2019 11:12
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Two weeks in and I gotta say, I'm really happy with the Mitch Morse signing, he's shown a great ability to anchor the line and getting him out in space he's a mobile people mover. Just gotta hope his noggin holds up because that's a constant health scare at this point.
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Sep 18, 2019 12:03
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I woke up one morning and was so fatigued that I passed out for two hours after summoning enough energy to pick up the phone and call in sick. Later it took everything I had just to go to the kitchen and get water. The whole thing was scary and weird. Next day, felt fine, like nothing happened. I always wondered what that was about. Maybe it was mono?
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Sep 18, 2019 14:00
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CubanMissile posted:I woke up one morning and was so fatigued that I passed out for two hours after summoning enough energy to pick up the phone and call in sick. Later it took everything I had just to go to the kitchen and get water. The whole thing was scary and weird. Next day, felt fine, like nothing happened. I always wondered what that was about. Maybe it was mono? it's just being a fan of an AFC east team
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Sep 18, 2019 14:06
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BIG-DICK-BUTT-gently caress posted:Thats a fair point but the more draft picks you have, the greater the chance of hitting on at least some of them. I think the concern is that some of them isn't enough considering how many holes there now are. I don't know enough about the 'phins depth, so I'm prepared to be corrected, but it seems like they need to hit starters on almost all of them. Ehud posted:btw Chris Grier straight up said they didn't plan to trade Tunsil or Minkah. As tarbrush pointed out, they may not have been part of the plan but they are somewhat a consequence of it. I'm interested to see how this plays out. If it works will it lead to other teams going bonkers tank mode? Or will we see that there is a real lower limit to tanking?
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Sep 18, 2019 14:36
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PFF, etc. but I’m kind of relieved Leonard Williams has been dogshit this season. He is not worth the $17m/year or whatever that the Jets would have paid him had he continued his “pretty good, but not great” trajectory. https://twitter.com/nickspano/status/1174297370496045056?s=21
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Sep 18, 2019 14:42
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I really don't think it's unrealistic to think Miami can go from terrible to below average in one offseason. off the top of my head here is a checklist of the bare minimum that we should accomplish this year to pull things out of the toilet and turn us into a 5 or 6 win team with a foundation to build off of: - Draft whatever QB we like best. - Draft or sign 3 new starters on the offensive line. - Draft or sign 2 edge rushers. We still won't be good, but that likely gets us from historically bad to below average. If Grier cannot make those 3 things happen with all those draft picks and $160m in cap room then he shouldn't be the GM.
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Sep 18, 2019 14:53
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Imo you need at least a legit receiver so the QB (lol watch them take Herbert first overall) has an outlet. At least one solid side of the line is crucial though. Honestly you could justify spending the entire draft on offense and doing the same for defense the following year.
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Sep 18, 2019 14:56
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Professor Funk posted:PFF, etc. but I’m kind of relieved Leonard Williams has been dogshit this season. He is not worth the $17m/year or whatever that the Jets would have paid him had he continued his “pretty good, but not great” trajectory. What is with the Jets and drafting super talented defensive linemen that end up completely phoning it in near the end of their tenure?
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Sep 18, 2019 14:57
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Raku posted:Imo you need at least a legit receiver so the QB (lol watch them take Herbert first overall) has an outlet. At least one solid side of the line is crucial though. yeah I thought about including WR in my list even if you include WR though, we're talking about finding 6 starters (1 QB, 3 OL, 2 edge, 1 WR) with all those draft picks and cap room. That should not be that difficult. It's not like they all have to be studs either. We just need capable NFL starters lol
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Sep 18, 2019 14:59
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Ehud posted:- Draft or sign 3 new starters on the offensive line. So now you're overpaying for mid-level free agents or using premium picks on guys that have a 50% hit rate on being a reasonably successful NFL starter. Repeat for 3-4 years until you have decent enough depth to compete. By that time you can only hope that your rookie contract QB is good enough to get extended for $35m per. Basically, all hope is lost. Bad teams will remain bad. gently caress the Patriots forever.
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Sep 18, 2019 15:53
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I don't think they'll target key positions in FA for exactly that reason. I think they'll go after LBs, WRs in FA and then address the high leverage positions in the draft. I wouldn't be surprised to see both extra first rounders go on tackles.
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Sep 18, 2019 15:59
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I think you guys are exaggerating the effects of the FA tax and how long it takes for a team to turn it's prospects around with good coaching. The Seahawks jettisoned most of their roster in the early Carroll days and hit the ground running thanks to good drafting and coaching.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:03
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Diva Cupcake posted:My issue with stripping a team bare is that free agency takes place prior to the draft and the 2020 UFA class is pretty barren when comes to either of these positions. You're looking at the Robert Quinn, Zeke Ansah, Greg Robinson, Seantrel Henderson tier of players. It's a stopgap tier and you're going to be competing with 31 other teams picking those clean unless you significantly overpay. The Jets have to deal with the bad team tax as well. It sucks. I really don't think you can plan this specifically yet. There are too many moving parts in one offseason. I think Miami's goal is to have as much flexibility as possible. Just for the offensive line, Miami could sign a free agent, trade for another guy, then spend a first on another guy. There's 3 dudes right there. And if they want to shore the unit up more they still have a jillion more dollars in cap room and a bunch of other picks 
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Sep 18, 2019 16:16
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The problem is that to actually get three good dudes you generally need to draft or acquire six. And the draftees may not be ready right away. And there will be a LOT of positions to fill. It really just comes down to whether you believe the Dolphins front office and coaching staff is capable of executing this "vision." I'm skeptical
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Sep 18, 2019 16:23
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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:The Seahawks jettisoned most of their roster in the early Carroll days and hit the ground running thanks to good drafting and coaching. If they were actually that much better at identifying and drafting talent or even coaching them up than everyone else, they've done a pretty terrible job of it in the last 7 years. 2015 gave them Lockett and Frank Clark. The rest is a wasteland.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:26
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What Miami is doing is unprecedented so it's hard to make an informed guess on how it will turn out. The closest analog I can think of is Cleveland, but they didn't shed nearly amount of talent Miami has and they still only had one win over two seasons.Ehud posted:Just for the offensive line, Miami could sign a free agent, trade for another guy, then spend a first on another guy. There's 3 dudes right there. And if they want to shore the unit up more they still have a jillion more dollars in cap room and a bunch of other picks Virtually no tackles of even average caliber hit free agency, the trade market price for a decent tackle was just set at two first-rounders, and the hit rate for tackles in the draft isn't that high.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:26
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Diva Cupcake posted:The Seahawks had an unprecedented run of drafting Pro Bowl level players from 2010-2012 that owes a lot to dumb luck. The Colts went from the 2011 wasteland to an 11-5 playoff team with one good season of drafting. Even mediocre drafting was able to keep them in contention a few seasons before Luck died.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:31
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The 2011 Colts are looking like a significantly more talented team than the 2019 Dolphins, though.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:33
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You guys are thinking about this totally differently than me. I'm not talking about finding the guys who are good long-term solutions to each position. I'm talking about Miami finding enough players to go from historically bad to below average. I simply want a QB, several human beings who can put together halfway competent performances on the offensive line and two more human beings who have the potential to put pressure on the other team's QB. I'm making this argument in opposition of this notion that somehow Miami is tanking so hard that there is no way back. To me, the first step is to get back up to like a 5 win team. That is absolutely doable in one offseason.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:33
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I do agree with whomever said that if possible they should just spend all those top picks on the offense next year. Get Tua, the best OL left on the board and a receiver or another OL by the end of the 2nd round and you can hopefully plug in enough stuff to let them develop. If they do go 0-16 I think you have to flush the leadership though, because that many toys to play with should be really enticing to a GM / coach who has the opportunity to bring in all their own guys, and immediately be liked by the survivors in the locker room for simply not being part of hell world.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:40
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Kalli posted:I do agree with whomever said that if possible they should just spend all those top picks on the offense next year. yeah, honestly the more I think about it, I like this approach. First round: Tua OL OL/WR and keep building out the supporting cast (especially OL) with other picks and free agents. There is nothing more important than getting the QB as much help as possible in year one. The entire point of this is to come out of the depths with a franchise QB.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:43
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Ehud posted:You guys are thinking about this totally differently than me. I'm not talking about finding the guys who are good long-term solutions to each position. I'm talking about Miami finding enough players to go from historically bad to below average. Right, I don't think I'm misunderstanding your point, I just don't agree with it. I don't think you can find enough decent stopgap players in one offseason to get the Dolphins to five wins. You have to assume you hit on every single draft pick and that the free agency crop of 2020 is unusually fertile AND that you can convince even borderline talents to come to Miami before a five-win team is feasible.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:44
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Let me re-frame this: is there an example in NFL history of a deliberate helltank that actually resulted in a team becoming a Super Bowl contender? Not to be all  but if you're just going for "watchable" then tanking is really pointless.I was going to say Jimmy Johnson with the Cowboys, but I didn't realize he was taking over a 3-13 toilet roster anyway, and his rebuild required pulling off the biggest trade in league history to work.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:47
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fsif posted:Right, I don't think I'm misunderstanding your point, I just don't agree with it. I don't think you can find enough decent stopgap players in one offseason to get the Dolphins to five wins. that may be, but at least I never slept with lumbergh
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Sep 18, 2019 16:47
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sean10mm posted:Let me re-frame this: is there an example in NFL history of a deliberate helltank that actually resulted in a team becoming a Super Bowl contender? Not to be all I'm talking about the goals for a single offseason.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:48
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Raku posted:Imo you need at least a legit receiver so the QB (lol watch them take Herbert first overall) has an outlet. At least one solid side of the line is crucial though. Honestly we’ve got a decent receiving corps even without Stills. I believe if they get improved play by the line, we’ll see more routes that match their abilities.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:51
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Ehud posted:I'm talking about the goals for a single offseason. Right, I'm just wondering if the "burn everything down" thing ever actually worked in the long term beyond "they're fine I guess." I'm not trying to be an rear end, I genuinely don't know and can't think of any obvious examples.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:56
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