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Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

charms posted:

That would make sense, though. He had a nightkill, he just needed someone to use it on.

Flushing out Byzantium by lying about his role seems like a bad move whether he had the nightkill or not, but that's what he was doing, so I don't think it's right to assume optimal gameplay from CapitalistPig.

Actually that would seem to sort of indicate he did have a nightkill because he would have been able to shoot whoever responded that night

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hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

xiw I think you're a bit over enamoured with your theory. you're operating under the assumption I was given the vig and it looks like you're trying to make everything fit back to that theory.

do you not believe my role claim? because my night action is one that can be verified.

my theory came from your post and then me thinking about my n1 target action in light of that. maybe he didn't try to give me the vig, but if so who did he try give it to? who did he give night 2 vig to? both scum? we've not heard anything about either of the vig he gave out, hence my theory that maybe he got it back and died and didn't give out a second vig.

if I really received the vig and used it, why would I have posted my theory and outted my n1 target as cpig as opposed to idk just shutting up about it?

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

Hal Incandenza posted:

Actually that would seem to sort of indicate he did have a nightkill because he would have been able to shoot whoever responded that night

this is actually another good point for why he was trying to find his target nation. he could have resolved it himself with his vig.

charms
Oct 14, 2012


Let's say that CapitalistPig got his own vig returned to him by hambeet's ability. He tries to out his upgrade target, but that goes nowhere, so he has to come up with someone. Unless there were four or more kills in play, or the magic of Role Madness caused him to target himself twice in a row, he would have had to go after either Mr. Steak or one of his charges...

CapitalistPig posted:

I would vig lumpen and hand my friend hambeet the vig

This theory is convoluted, and I think the "Allies got the first vig" scenario is more likely. But it all fits.

Lumpen
Apr 2, 2004

I'd been happy, and I was happy still. For all to be accomplished,
for me to feel less lonely,
all that remained to hope
was that on the day of my execution
there should be a huge crowd of spectators and that they should
greet me with howls of execration.
Plaster Town Cop
I believe hambeet's claim and it fits the evidence. I think CPig got his own Vig back N1, then went fishing for his upgrade, then tried to kill me N2.

Xiw's initial case seemed like a stretch to me but probably sincere, and now he seems tunneled. Binus' vote looks highly opportunistic to me.

Lumpen
Apr 2, 2004

I'd been happy, and I was happy still. For all to be accomplished,
for me to feel less lonely,
all that remained to hope
was that on the day of my execution
there should be a huge crowd of spectators and that they should
greet me with howls of execration.
Plaster Town Cop

Leith Maclaine posted:

Making sure this is the right thread this time.

Idea, and this idea may suck but I do not have much else to contribute with my lack of information.

There were probably 4 scum originally, minus penny, means 3 left.

Can we make a list of 3-4 players that we are pretty sure are town to concentrate on the ones that are left?
Leith, hambeet, Hal, Charms.

Mr. Humalong
May 7, 2007

I'm sorry I have re-discovered why I don't like playing in two games at the same time.

Opopanax
Aug 8, 2007

I HEX YE!!!


Pig getting his vig back seems like a big stretch, not sure how I feel about how readily everyone is running with it

xiw
Sep 25, 2011

i wake up at night
night action madness nightmares
maybe i am scum

Cpig Haiku contest 2020 winner

hambeet posted:

xiw I think you're a bit over enamoured with your theory. you're operating under the assumption I was given the vig and it looks like you're trying to make everything fit back to that theory.

do you not believe my role claim? because my night action is one that can be verified.
[quote]

I didn't start off thinking 'maybe hambeet was given the vig', i was looking for clues in cpig's posts for that, and I found what look pretty clear evidence that it was you. Then everything else I looked at provided evidence in that direction. fwiw i didn't really have any particular scummy views about you until then (more worried about lumpen and Hum)

Your role claim might be true and provable but you could easily have done the N1 nightkill instead of using a power - given the setup, your scum partners might have had more important roles to use.

[quote]
if I really received the vig and used it, why would I have posted my theory and outted my n1 target as cpig as opposed to idk just shutting up about it?

because this theory clears you and if you just shut up then the evidence points at you? am i missing something?

Why did you target cpig n1 and steak n2?

I just can't believe cpig targetting you specifically, getting an action bounced back, and then not saying a word about the target fuckery going on.

xiw
Sep 25, 2011

i wake up at night
night action madness nightmares
maybe i am scum

Cpig Haiku contest 2020 winner
Messed up the quote tags, attempt #2:

hambeet posted:

xiw I think you're a bit over enamoured with your theory. you're operating under the assumption I was given the vig and it looks like you're trying to make everything fit back to that theory.

do you not believe my role claim? because my night action is one that can be verified.

I didn't start off thinking 'maybe hambeet was given the vig', i was looking for clues in cpig's posts for that, and I found what look pretty clear evidence that it was you. Then everything else I looked at provided evidence in that direction. fwiw i didn't really have any particular scummy views about you until then (more worried about lumpen and Hum)

Your role claim might be true and provable but you could easily have done the N1 nightkill instead of using a power - given the setup, your scum partners might have had more important roles to use.

quote:

if I really received the vig and used it, why would I have posted my theory and outted my n1 target as cpig as opposed to idk just shutting up about it?

because this theory clears you and if you just shut up then the evidence points at you? am i missing something?

Why did you target cpig n1 and steak n2?

I just can't believe cpig targetting you specifically, getting an action bounced back, and then not saying a word about the target fuckery going on.

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

xiw posted:

because this theory clears you and if you just shut up then the evidence points at you? am i missing something?

What evidence? A couple of posts by cpig? Is that your evidence I got the vig? Your initial theory had me announcing the gambit because I was worrying about some obscure communication or masonry before any was even announced. so you dropped it when I pointed that out, yet stuck with your original theory based on even less information?

you then also stuffed up twice in saying I visited humalong, and that I had not claimed and active ability. These mistakes look like you're in a rush to validate your theory, not trying to find out the truth.

quote:

Why did you target cpig n1 and steak n2?

cpig because i had no idea of his alignment. if I was targeted with anything other than a night kill it'd bounce off to him and I'd learn more about both cpig AND whoever tried to use the action on me later when people started claiming actions.

(I think that's the best way to use my role, personally, to be able to try validate two people.)

steak i targeted because I didn't believe he was town, as per my earlier casing, and I didn't want him using a power on me. so i redirected it back to him and not anyone else (because I didn't know what he was going to do).

quote:

I just can't believe cpig targetting you specifically, getting an action bounced back, and then not saying a word about the target fuckery going on.

I'm not saying my theory is fact though, where you seem to be pretty sure yours is. You're only reading into your interpretations of cpigs posts, but ignoring what charms and hal have pointed out too. That's cherry picking.

To spell it out again, cpig lied to find out who Byzantium was. That's a fact because we can see his powers. You even already said that yourself:

xiw posted:

*snip*
CPig's target was byzantium so this was just trying to get them killed i guess - they have no investigative role.

*snip*

So what was his next step going to be? He couldn't have then tried to lead a lunch on me because that would be a bit too obvious.

if he had the vig, like I'm suggesting he may have, that explains his reason for lying.

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before
Beet has been at -4 (2 votes) all day. I would think that if he were town then some of the scum would have voted him by now. That hasn’t happened

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib

b-minus1 posted:

Beet has been at -4 (2 votes) all day. I would think that if he were town then some of the scum would have voted him by now. That hasn’t happened

Hmmmmmm

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

b-minus1 posted:

Beet has been at -4 (2 votes) all day. I would think that if he were town then some of the scum would have voted him by now. That hasn’t happened

you already did though.


seriously b-minus, you've been calling me scum for half the game now without placing a single vote on me nor making one proper case against me. that's scummy.


yet as soon as someone hastily slaps a case together you've jumped on it, without adding anything to it and finally voted me. you're hiding behind xiws case to vote me and a that's scummy play.

b-minus1 posted:

Nice catch. I think we got a live one. ##vote beet

you had promised to do some case work yesterday and when you finally did you cased your second scummiest pick, not your first (me), and all it amounted to was humalong's "scum slip".

b-minus1 posted:

I will try to get some casework done over the next day. Deadline isn’t until tomorrow night thankfully.

My top scum picks right now are beet, xiw, hum and charms, in roughly that order. I’m neutral on Hal and RF. Sal, lumpen and steak are my town reads. I’ll actually construct some posts tonight or tomorrow morning.

b-minus1 posted:

Cpig quoted some leith posts:

hum's response:

potential scumslip?

later hum voted leith.

I like humalong for scum

b-minus1 posted:

sure why not, i'll ##vote humalong

b-minus1 posted:

maybe this post got AA killed

b-minus1 posted:

Humalong is absolutely scum

b-minus1 posted:

I’m 99% sure that humalong scumslipped

when I called you out on that case you just deferred it back to me to ask my opinion of humalong.

hambeet posted:

so i guess this is the extent of the "case" work so far?

i thought your ranking had me as most scummiest, so why did you "case" hum first?

b-minus1 posted:

I don’t see why thst matters. I’m attempting to get back in the game and saw some humalong posts that made me :raise:. Since we are on the topic, what is your take on humalong?

I then respond exactly why it matters, and you ignore it.

hambeet posted:

oh and it matters because this is mafia and words and intent are part of the game.

you've dropped that you think i'm scummy with no follow up reasoning, you then say i'm your scummiest read out of four others, but go on to phone in this "case" on hum which solely seems to built on this perceived scum slip.

it's like you've been coasting by all game on your role in the 2penny lynch, not looking really interested in scum hunting since then. that's definitely not pro-town. that's scummy.

and now you're trying to find reasons to keep painting me as scum, while still having no case of your own on me.


##vote b-minus

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before
Nice

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

I'd have responded with "you mad" or "shook" personally.

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before
I have been coasting since d1, I won’t deny that

xiw
Sep 25, 2011

i wake up at night
night action madness nightmares
maybe i am scum

Cpig Haiku contest 2020 winner
Hambeet's responses feel very 'oh poo poo caught .... wait town isn't leaping in on this, let's try and save myself' to me. The claim meshing perfectly to clear you when you'd carefully avoided a single mention of your abilities before then feels so fake.

(also this is my very first straight catch of a scum from first principles in mafia so i'm pretty psyched yes)

Also also. You spent 30 minutes thinking about your fakeclaim here:

Feb 3, 2020 13:16 xiw: cpig gave hambeet a vig N1 who used it to kill, also some byzantium stuff
Feb 3, 2020 13:23 hambeet: i'm byzantium
Feb 3, 2020 15:54 hambeet: oh wait I redirected myself to cpig, maybe he gave himself a vig

imagine being hambeet here thinking about the gamestate and knowing that you're a redirector and that you'd redirected cpig night 1. is your first thought 'i'm byzantium'

instead this looks so much more like 'uh i can explain the byzantium bit' and then thinking up an excuse in that followup half an hour.

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before
I missed these posts.

Mr. Humalong posted:

sure are a lot of watchers in this game



hambeet posted:

are you claiming too here?

unless I missed it Humalong never answers beet. Has humalong claimed anything?

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

xiw posted:

Hambeet's responses feel very 'oh poo poo caught .... wait town isn't leaping in on this, let's try and save myself' to me. The claim meshing perfectly to clear you when you'd carefully avoided a single mention of your abilities before then feels so fake.

(also this is my very first straight catch of a scum from first principles in mafia so i'm pretty psyched yes)

Also also. You spent 30 minutes thinking about your fakeclaim here:

Feb 3, 2020 13:16 xiw: cpig gave hambeet a vig N1 who used it to kill, also some byzantium stuff
Feb 3, 2020 13:23 hambeet: i'm byzantium
Feb 3, 2020 15:54 hambeet: oh wait I redirected myself to cpig, maybe he gave himself a vig

imagine being hambeet here thinking about the gamestate and knowing that you're a redirector and that you'd redirected cpig night 1. is your first thought 'i'm byzantium'

instead this looks so much more like 'uh i can explain the byzantium bit' and then thinking up an excuse in that followup half an hour.

lol because I'm at work, not because I'm busy making up fake claims.

now you're really stretching.

I answered I'm Byzantium because your whole case seemed predicated on the idea of my "nice gambit post', not that you were wedded to this idea of me getting the vig.

so then i start typing my claim post, commented on a couple of other posts in the mean while and then thinking back to what steak said came up with the theory "hey what if cpig did try give me the vig."



Xiw me not agreeing with your theory doesn't mean I'm lying, it could also mean you're just wrong.

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

xiw posted:


(also this is my very first straight catch of a scum from first principles in mafia so i'm pretty psyched yes)


also it’s good you’ve admitted this because now at least we all know you’re not going to shake from you’re entrenched position that I must be scum, regardless of what arguments have or will be presented.

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

b-minus1 posted:

I have been coasting since d1, I won’t deny that

you’ve actually not denied anything else in my post either.

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

b-minus1 posted:

I missed these posts.



unless I missed it Humalong never answers beet. Has humalong claimed anything?

no just his targets, and that it was a good thing he tried on me (when he was jailed).

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

xiw, where’s the other vig? the one cpig should have given out night 2 as his only night action. no one claimed getting the night 1 or night 2 vig, or using them.

so did he give them both to scum?



alao, if cpig gave out a vig and saw that no one in thread commented on receiving one, don’t you think he’d pick up on that too and flag with everyone “hey I gave beet a vig and he didn’t mention it”.

Yet he didn’t.

He just tried to find his upgrade target instead.

Leith Maclaine
Mar 2, 2018

Adventure comes from insufficient planning.
My 4 town;

Me, Lumpen, Hal, Charms

Vote tracking is off kilter since the modkill on ETR.

Leith Maclaine
Mar 2, 2018

Adventure comes from insufficient planning.

Leith Maclaine posted:

My 4 town;

Me, Lumpen, Hal, Charms

Vote tracking is off kilter since the modkill on ETR.

Correction because I confused Amni :)

Vote counting is off kilter since the modkill on ETR.

Leith Maclaine
Mar 2, 2018

Adventure comes from insufficient planning.

SalTheBard posted:

##vote 2 penny

Wish this was Lumpen instead

Hey Sal,


Why did you drop the hammer on 2 penny saying you wish this was Lumpen but not giving a justification for why you voted 2 penny?

The only complaint you had about Lumpen was that he did Content Game which really isn't enough to generate angst on D1.

votefinder
Jul 6, 2010

scoop scoop
Votecount for Day 4

hambeet (2): xiw, b-minus1
b-minus1 (1): hambeet
xiw (1): SalTheBard
SalTheBard (0): Lumpen, Lumpen

Not Voting (6): charms, Hal Incandenza, Leith Maclaine, Lumpen, Mr. Humalong, Retro Futurist

With 10 alive, it's 6 votes to execute. The current deadline is February 04th, 2020 at 8 p.m. CST -- that's in about 23 hours, 7 minutes.

The current day's mod post count is: 2

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib

Leith Maclaine posted:

Hey Sal,


Why did you drop the hammer on 2 penny saying you wish this was Lumpen but not giving a justification for why you voted 2 penny?

The only complaint you had about Lumpen was that he did Content Game which really isn't enough to generate angst on D1.

I think I've made my feelings on Lumpen pretty clear. I also said I thought 2 Penny was scum.

SalTheBard posted:

Lumpen - Generating "content" but really its just white noise

2 Penny - This post is pretty scummy or just willful ignorance, I can't decided which is which

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

xiw posted:

The other half of this, and the damning half for me, is that the new claim suddenly meshes with a flipped Cpig vig-provider.

Also a power that lets you prevent 3 nks on yourself in a row while also protecting other people is pretty good.

Also an excuse to not try out the 3 votes thing is pretty useful if you did actually get triple voting on one person or something like that as your actual power - this could all be a smokescreen to stay alive to use that to win. Pretty scary.

xiw i note that you also tried to shoe-horn the vig thing in on steak's claim too, as being too convenient after c-pig's flip.

you seem to be a little bit fascinated by cpig's vigs.

hambeet
Sep 13, 2002

anything you want to share with the class?

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before
Lumpen where are you

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

hambeet posted:

xiw i note that you also tried to shoe-horn the vig thing in on steak's claim too, as being too convenient after c-pig's flip.

you seem to be a little bit fascinated by cpig's vigs.

Don't forget he was jailed and there was no kill! GUILTY!

oh wait...

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

4 town people (not including me, that is dumb)

charms, and uhhh... probably Sal at this point, less strong town feels from Lumpen and Leith

b- is giving me scummy vibes, 2penny vote not withstanding. I think beet hasn't looked great today. Oh an RF, that guy is scummy! In fact let me ##vote RF

Lumpen
Apr 2, 2004

I'd been happy, and I was happy still. For all to be accomplished,
for me to feel less lonely,
all that remained to hope
was that on the day of my execution
there should be a huge crowd of spectators and that they should
greet me with howls of execration.
Plaster Town Cop
Day 4 LumpenList

I think hambeet is Town and I don't like the push on him. Xiw and b-minus1 could be collaborating, but Xiw's case seems sincere but mistaken, and I suspect b-minus1 is pushing an opportunistic bandwagon on it while Sal and Humalong quietly hang back.

I really doubt that there is a Lightning Rod or a Nexus or a Gravedigger, I think it's much more likely Sal is a lying Secret Alliance and used his MegaJail last night. I don't know why he would posture with a vote on Xiw, and I don't see the angle in even using the MegaJail as Secret Alliance, but I think if there was a Town who was responsible they would claim it. I would think that Sal would openly claim it as Secret Alliance for Townie cred, but I guess that's WIFOM.
##vote Sal

Leith Maclaine
Mar 2, 2018

Adventure comes from insufficient planning.
I can see voting Sal, RF, or B-

B- was the initial 2 penny vote and I can see that as scum not being able to back away from it cleanly and leaving it there.

Sal was the final vote without much of a justification. I think it was a scum distancing.

RF, didn't vote for Penny and did not for the other town nk.

I'm not sure I can make a case on anyone else.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib

Lumpen posted:

##vote Sal

You confuse the gently caress out of me.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib

Leith Maclaine posted:


Sal was the final vote without much of a justification. I think it was a scum distancing.


fine, gently caress it, vote for me. Hope town loving loses.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib

Lumpen posted:

Why would Secret Alliance Sal pop the Superjail and then pretend not to have done it? I don't see the angle. I can't see any possible reason Town Sal would do it and then lie about it either though. And he would be busted as a liar if there's no Jail in future days.

Secret Alliance Sal might be motivated to do the Superjail to free him up to do kills on future nights without having to account for a missing Jail, but then there wouldn't be any reason to deny doing it.

Any other explanation seems really unlikely though, I just can't imagine a scenario where this would be a good play for Sal regardless of alignment. Doing it and lying seems like it would just be inconceivable and totally pointless as Town, but maybe clumsy or crafty for some reason I can't see, if Secret Alliance.

Lumpen, what happened to this post? How did it go from this to your current vote?

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SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib

Leith Maclaine posted:

Sal was the final vote without much of a justification. I think it was a scum distancing.

I voted for 2 Penny the same reason that pretty much everyone else voted for 2 Penny, which was his scummy posts. I can't decide, who in this moment, is scummier, you or Lumpen.

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