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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

The big question is if all these swings are front-loaded in like Dublin and the border counties or further afield - that TG4 Galway poll hasnt made me feel overly confident about their chances further out from commuterland but i'm just a natural pessimist on this stuff really. SF getting all their first prefs frontloaded on solo run candidates would be good for the other left leaning parties if they transfer down properly but could mean they underperform in total.

Should expect to see them overcome their transfer toxicity i'd expect

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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1223753771521597440

it's happening

However notable collapse in S-PBP votes there, weird Aontu numbers - doesn't make an SF lead coalition of the other seem viable compared to the last numbers

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Election is now officially gonna get well mental for the last week

Southpaugh
May 26, 2007

Smokey Bacon


these are some loving crazy numbers man, no way it goes that well for the sinners on polling day

PowerBeard
Sep 4, 2011
So I was at the Local Candidate meeting on Friday night where we had practically all the Candidates there, except for Sinn Fein because she thought it wise to go on holidays than answer any questions that weekend. The following is a rough breakdown of their performance:

  • Social Democrats - She did well on her questions, seemed well capable of coming up with strong solutions. Not setting the world on fire though.
  • Green Party - Christ, they aren't even trying in our constituency, are they? The guy was far too young and lacked any basic knowledge of the subjects other than "I played rugby in the area and played against that town that was recently absorbed into Kildare South..." and then just trails off without answering what he would do to help them or anything. He had injured his leg on the night before, so maybe he was just tired, but by the end of it was barely able to say anything note worthy on the Environment... you know, the thing the Greens should loving own bones on.
  • People before Profit - Felt like she made a wrong turn and ended up at the debate by accident. Her answers were crazy and left people shaking their heads. Quote of the night went to her on the issue of Drugs: "Ask yourselves, why do people take drugs? (pauses for effect) For Escapism... (pauses for effect) from Capitalism... (whole room pauses wondering what the hell is going on). She then spent the whole night shouting "Don't vote Fianna Fail or Fianna Gael"" while other candidates tried to answer questions.
  • Aontú - A person comprised entirely of hatred and tears, she wants to see more Drug enforcers (instead of rehabilitation or treatment of drug users) so they can finally get the people who they know are dealing and take their cars and homes. She also claimed that Almond milk is more environmentally damaging than regular milk production and got shouted down by all the Green reps in the room.
  • Fianna Fail - Two representatives, one acted as a lighting rod for all the horrible questions on housing issues and other talked up just how amazing their Government will be once they finally get back into power. The lightning rod proceeded to get loving bodied by the local social housing co op that was told that they couldn't own their own homes and that ended in a shouting match where she told those families that "they weren't lying, just that they were misinformed and misconstruing the truth...". The other guy just smiled and waved knowing that he'd probably get in before the lightning rod because he has connections.
  • Fianna Gael - Probably the best talker / most informed of the night, but promptly got shouted down when he said €100k had gone to funding the local Daycare centre, but a local pointed out that it was only €46k and the room went dead silent as he rushed to his phone soon after. He apologised later that night after discovering where the rest of the money went...
  • Independent - Now he may just be a simple country gentleman, salt of the earth, former soldier, now a family doctor and he has the simple answers you need to fix all your worries and do it all in the first 100 days. Like sell off the voting machines to get our navel ships running again to combat drug ships coming to Ireland which accounts for 99% of all the drugs in Ireland... Admitted that 3 of the 4 seats would go to Fianna Fail / Fianna Gael and asked us to get someone in who would hold them accountable. Likeable but might not be ready for how hard it is to effect real change in legislation.
  • Labour - A Council representative who dealt with local families and seemed have some good policies on the night. Surprised how good he was overall.
  • Sinn Fein - Was not present, but the room was kind of pissed with them because they didn't give two fucks about the smaller towns for the last few years and actually voted against key issues that effected them.

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

Where did that 50+ go?

Foul Ole Ron
Jan 6, 2005

All of you, please don't rush, everyone do the Guybrush!
Fun Shoe
Looks like little to no recovery or development outside of urban centres has finally bitten FG on the arse (two polls is pretty telling). I'm certainly opposed to the idea of "anyone but FG" but I am glad they are looking to loose out here.

PowerBeard
Sep 4, 2011

lemonadesweetheart posted:

Where did that 50+ go?

He claimed that it went to the restoration of the derelict Community Centre, which got a paint job recently. But a €50k+ revamp didn't sit well with the crowd because the Daycare is currently operating out of the GAA Club and was for years...

Foul Ole Ron posted:

Looks like little to no recovery or development outside of urban centres has finally bitten FG on the arse (two polls is pretty telling). I'm certainly opposed to the idea of "anyone but FG" but I am glad they are looking to loose out here.

There feels like a massive shift in opinion, I honestly hope that it doesn't just become the FF show with a party that just nods and waves their way into another Recession.

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

Foul Ole Ron posted:

Looks like little to no recovery or development outside of urban centres has finally bitten FG on the arse (two polls is pretty telling). I'm certainly opposed to the idea of "anyone but FG" but I am glad they are looking to loose out here.

My problem is that I really hate how FG just don't give a poo poo about the homeless or the hospital waiting lists. And that RCI/DMP "commemoration" really felt like boot licking of the Empire.

But on the flip side, I will always blame FF for how so many of my friends had to emigrate.

I just wish both could lose really hard.

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

I just saw a canvassing poster for Michael Healy Rae outside Brittas village in South County Dublin. I feel like I'm losing my mind.

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/BenGilroy11/status/1223668953064648713?s=20

He's at it again.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

I was greatly disappointed to discover he wasn't some hurling old boy trying to remind everyone he used to play county but rather just a run of the mill insane right winger

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Also looks like FG might be pushing Coveney to the front on the campaign to offset Leo Leoing all over the place

https://twitter.com/FineGael/status/1224020528622600192?s=19

The Question IRL
Jun 8, 2013

Only two contestants left! Here is Doom's chance for revenge...

kustomkarkommando posted:

I was greatly disappointed to discover he wasn't some hurling old boy trying to remind everyone he used to play county but rather just a run of the mill insane right winger

He was one of these insane “Freemen of the land” types. But worse because he went around offering his services to represent people in court in a manner similar to being a lawyer, without actually being a lawyer.
(Obviously lawyers didn’t like this. Lawyers spend years training to be given the privilege of being able to act as an advocate for others in court. Gilroy took a system designed to help people in family law cases, McKenzie friends, and abused it.)
Well he did up until he got a court order banning him from representing anybody else in court.

He also got jailed for contempt of court for constantly ignoring court orders in house repossession cases, often ones where he was representing other people.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224359304372932610?s=19

RTE climbing down? Argument to be made that staying clear of the Leo/Martin slagging match is helping them to position outside of the mudslinging establishment but could also help position them as a major "party of government"

I imagine it's gonna be none stop attack SF though

Foul Ole Ron
Jan 6, 2005

All of you, please don't rush, everyone do the Guybrush!
Fun Shoe

Pretty much, the seem rattled.

Edit: FF played the minority government well, Martin let leo (et al ) push the FG agenda.... which it seems has pissed off people (who would of thought that fiscal conservatism would do that?)... That and the homeless man being hurt in Cork.

It's anyone's chance now, the greens and Labour had their chance, could it be the Shinners now?

Foul Ole Ron fucked around with this message at 19:20 on Feb 3, 2020

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
Mary Lou being on the debate is going to make it great viewing. Both FF and FG will be prioritizing targeting her, but shes the best debater of the 3 so should get some good digs back at them. And it'll presumably have better moderation than that disastrous Virgin Media debate. Should be very entertaining.

Its definitely an embarrassing climb down for RTE and their ridiculous "leaders debate" criteria, too.

kustomkarkommando posted:

Also looks like FG might be pushing Coveney to the front on the campaign to offset Leo Leoing all over the place

https://twitter.com/FineGael/status/1224020528622600192?s=19

If Coveney had won the FG leadership race I think they would be in a much, much better position right now. Under him the party probably would have been centerist enough to at least intervene partially in the housing crisis in 2017. Not enough to fix it mind you, but enough so they wouldn't look completely incompetent as they do now after persisting with Leo's hands-off neoliberal approach for far too long.

And obviously Coveney actually being capable, and having substance/character, would stand to him a lot more so than Leo's PR obsessed, vacuous, approach.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Foul Ole Ron posted:

It's anyone's chance now, the greens and Labour had their chance, could it be the Shinners now?

Part of me is reminded of the big labour swell in 2011 where people just said "gently caress it lets try something different" - the potential unsubstainability of that in the long run I think should make the Shinners a bit cautious, I think their candidate startegy (which is actually pretty sound considering their past results and aims for modest yet still significant gains) shows even they are a bit unprepared for the big jump in polling numbers being shown.

Foul Ole Ron
Jan 6, 2005

All of you, please don't rush, everyone do the Guybrush!
Fun Shoe

Blut posted:


If Coveney had won the FG leadership race I think they would be in a much, much better position right now. Under him the party probably would have been centerist enough to at least intervene partially in the housing crisis in 2017. Not enough to fix it mind you, but enough so they wouldn't look completely incompetent as they do now after persisting with Leo's hands-off neoliberal approach for far too long.

And obviously Coveney actually being capable, and having substance/character, would stand to him a lot more so than Leo's PR obsessed, vacuous, approach.

As my partner said, the last thing people want is to see Leo's face when they are living at home with their parents trying to scrape a mortgage.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Also lol looks like government formation may be getting delayed as Tipp is being postponed

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224399444017283072?s=19

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

kustomkarkommando posted:

Also lol looks like government formation may be getting delayed as Tipp is being postponed

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224399444017283072?s=19

What a dumb electoral system we have

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

I mean what else do you do if one of the candidates dies?

mehall
Aug 27, 2010


If you're an independent, the UK doesn't give a poo poo and just rolls on, with you removed from the ballot if it's more than a few days beforehand.

If it's a party candidate the election gets pushed to give time for the party to nominate someone else.

Azza Bamboo
Apr 7, 2018


THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021
Is this a true independent or is it one of the wacky "we're not a party but a group of independents working together" things?

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

https://twitter.com/serentrippety/status/1224442549911244806?s=19

Holy poo poo

Skull Servant
Oct 25, 2009

How so? It does two things - first it prevents the possibility of a region electing a deceased person and having to go straight back to the polls for a by-election, and secondly it allows the family of the deceased breathing room to grieve while not having to be constantly reminded of their passing.

We had all the local candidates come into the college today to talk about student issues. Only 7 out of the apparent 15 arrived, with most of the South Louth based candidates skipping it. However, the FG candidate for here also didn't show his face, which was really odd/funny because his entire platform is "I'm young!" Another absence was Nash, which was weird. I understand his focus is on Drogheda but he doesn't have another Labour mate to clash with.

It was actually an interesting enough forum. Learned about some of the independents that are running here. None are amazing, but they're not entirely awful. A yank is running on the platform of "extreme localism" (a direct quote) where she would work to devolve more powers to the county councils and town councils. Not an awful idea in theory, but very doubtful it will work in any way. The other one was a guy who would only talk about mental health. Almost certainly means well, but when you are specifically asked how you would address the funding of third level education and you divert immediately into talking about mental health concerns...

SF's candidate for here was very good, honestly. He was well spoken and comfortable in front of the crowd. Got a few laughs too, which was good. PBP's one had a good stump speech and did well talking about things that weren't exactly education related while linking them to education - free transport would reduce the cost of attending college, fixing housing and rents will allow students more independence, ect. Green Party candidate was a good speaker too and actually gave me confidence in listing them as a numbered preference. It will probably be fourth, but I was legitimately considering leaving him out completely.

FF's Breathnach was initially well spoken, but he was challenged by two members of staff on his and FF's record and began to lose his temper. Was very visibly annoyed which I was a bit shocked at. It didn't take much at all for him to tilt - first person specifically said that the pay disparity that is at the root of tomorrow's strike action is because of the inaction of both FG and FF in "coalition". He got worked up trying to explain that confidence and supply is actually different than coalition because... Pretty fun to watch honestly.

Fitzpatrick was last and god he was a complete mess. He couldn't string a sentence together and kept going from one thing to another while saying he was the "REAL INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE FOR LOUTH". This ticked me off to the point where I actually stopped him and asked if he is a real independent who will criticize the government why he was part of FG for so long. He first responded by saying that he did some soul searching (Which apparently took seven and a half years but okay) and this makes him honest. He might be a bit too honest, because he then went on to say that he didn't seek out FG, that the party approached him. He joined the party without ever believing in them. He actually said that. I almost lost it completely!

Providing nothing major changes between now and Saturday, I've now solidified my vote completely. Glad I went!

Skull Servant
Oct 25, 2009


:chanpop:

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Stanley Kubrick's the shinning

Foul Ole Ron
Jan 6, 2005

All of you, please don't rush, everyone do the Guybrush!
Fun Shoe

Jesus christ imagine a sinner government lads. HA!

gently caress you Leo, your a tofffffffffff!

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Azza Bamboo posted:

Is this a true independent or is it one of the wacky "we're not a party but a group of independents working together" things?
Change UK - The Independent Group with some hastily crossed out stationary.

Foul Ole Ron
Jan 6, 2005

All of you, please don't rush, everyone do the Guybrush!
Fun Shoe
Speaking of independents, I have from a good source that Danny Healy-Rae is notorious for destroying the Dáil Jacks after a shite.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Foul Ole Ron posted:

gently caress you Leo, your a tofffffffffff!

as a trinity graduate I don't think a party led by a private schoolgirl from churchtown who went to TCD should start calling people toffs

but also gently caress leo

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1224449175829401601?s=19

SF out in clear front for every age bracket under 50

Foul Ole Ron
Jan 6, 2005

All of you, please don't rush, everyone do the Guybrush!
Fun Shoe

kustomkarkommando posted:

as a trinity graduate I don't think a party led by a private schoolgirl from churchtown who went to TCD should start calling people toffs

but also gently caress leo

Tbh I'm going to vote green, still... from working in mental health and seeing the devastation FG have caused, I'm laughing my hole off at these poles.

Chuka Umana
Apr 30, 2019

by sebmojo
I'm not going to be tricked into having hope.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
That latest poll is great.

I'm not an SF voter, and would have some worries about an SF only government, but if somehow the numbers worked out for a coalition with them/LAB/Greens/SocDems it'd be fantastic for the country. Almost 100 years after independence finally a government without FF or FG. Its pretty unlikely mathematically though sadly.

I wonder what way FF and FG will play the debate tonight. Do they both focus on attacking SF since they're surging, and risk making themselves look united and SF the agent of change? Do they attack each other, and risk both parties bleeding to SF if any hits land?

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

Is leader of the opposition based on seats won? Be hilarious if FF/FG manage to lose and get the same number of seats.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

lemonadesweetheart posted:

Is leader of the opposition based on seats won? Be hilarious if FF/FG manage to lose and get the same number of seats.

Technically the Dail has Leaders In Opposition with flexible speaking rights, it is based on seats won but if someone is dead even they would just get the same rights as each other

Skull Servant
Oct 25, 2009

He's got my vote!

https://twitter.com/electionlit/status/1224319959658041345?s=19

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lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010


Make Harry and Meghan king and queen of Ulster?

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