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Casually checking this was a pretty busy debate for this far in the primary. By this point it's usually two candidates, but 2004 it was 4, 2000 it was 3, and 1992 it was 6. Dunno about earlier.
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Feb 26, 2020 05:47
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Speaking time breakdown which may also have effected Bernie's positive results: Bernie: 15:03 Everyone Else Except Tom: 11:44 - 13:29 Tom Steyer: 7:00 (Steyer has spent the most time and money in South Carolina)
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Feb 26, 2020 05:48
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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:Amy and Pete will stick around until Bernie locks it up on the off chance they'll get enough delegates to be prize pigs in a contested convention. I highly doubt she drops out prior to Super Tuesday unless she runs out of money first. She's already on the ballot and has poured time and resources into several of them, and sunk cost bias is a hell of a drug. If she fails to have any respectable showings on Super Tuesday though then yeah, I think she folds. I'd also like to think that Amy will fold as well once it becomes clear that somebody who she considers "qualified" in terms of experience is the front runner, and not an upstart line jumper like Pete. If Biden loses SC he has to drop out I think, otherwise he's going to stick around long term. We're stuck with Bloomberg until the convention no matter how pathetic his results end up being.
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Feb 26, 2020 05:50
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PotatoManJack posted:Speaking time breakdown which may also have effected Bernie's positive results: ok but subtract the time buttigieg was squeaking over bernie and see how much time he actually got
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Feb 26, 2020 05:50
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Sydin posted:I'd also like to think that Amy will fold as well once it becomes clear that somebody who she considers "qualified" in terms of experience is the front runner, and not an upstart line jumper like Pete. if amy's sticking around purely to spite buttigieg then you know what, good on her
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Feb 26, 2020 05:51
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Sydin posted:I highly doubt she drops out prior to Super Tuesday unless she runs out of money first. She's already on the ballot and has poured time and resources into several of them, and sunk cost bias is a hell of a drug. If she fails to have any respectable showings on Super Tuesday though then yeah, I think she folds. I'd also like to think that Amy will fold as well once it becomes clear that somebody who she considers "qualified" in terms of experience is the front runner, and not an upstart line jumper like Pete. If Biden loses SC he has to drop out I think, otherwise he's going to stick around long term. We're stuck with Bloomberg until the convention no matter how pathetic his results end up being. I think Biden and everyone else is in through Super Tuesday regardless of their performance in SC. It's literally three days later. Dropping out the Sunday before Super Tuesday doesn't actually get you anything except less delegates than you would have gotten otherwise.
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Feb 26, 2020 05:51
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ColonelMuttonchops posted:This debate sucked poo poo, but Bernies still gonna win. Going to volunteer for Bernie tomorrow based on pure spite. Because gently caress all of those losers. Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 05:57 on Feb 26, 2020 |
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Feb 26, 2020 05:52
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Rubio doing a great job of advertising a literal utopia for us here.
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Feb 26, 2020 05:56
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droll posted:I don't think you have been reading the past few months debate threads because Warren did spectacularly last debate and the thread agreed. Same with tonight. Warren doesn't matter, though. The only performances that are remotely meaningful (and that's a stretch given that debates don't matter much anyway) are Bernie's and Biden's, especially going into SC. Bloomberg would matter if he wasn't such a disaster. Everyone else is just a weird distraction at this point. edit- This was the problem with people in this thread freaking out about Warren's debate performance before Nevada. It didn't matter at all, because she wasn't competitive in Nevada. She's not competitive in SC either, so her debate performance is a non-issue. You don't swing 12 points on a debate. You're lucky if a stellar debate performance gives you a 1-2% boost. Paradoxish fucked around with this message at 06:02 on Feb 26, 2020 |
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Feb 26, 2020 05:57
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PotatoManJack posted:Speaking time breakdown which may also have effected Bernie's positive results: The speaking time table needs an eighth row: crosstalk.
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Feb 26, 2020 05:57
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Brony Car posted:Has this gotten shared yet? I'd like to know your thoughts on it as I remember some of you guys talking about how promising early voter turnout in some of the Super Tuesday states has been. Fyi the author of this article is married to a Bain capital VP
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Feb 26, 2020 05:59
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Ice Phisherman posted:Going to volunteer for Bernie tomorrow based on pure spite. Because gently caress all of those losers. This is the attitude we need.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:00
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I put on an audio feed of MSNBC for my nightly walk and, y'all, James Carville is so loving dumb. Jesus Christ.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:01
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Brony Car posted:Has this gotten shared yet? I'd like to know your thoughts on it as I remember some of you guys talking about how promising early voter turnout in some of the Super Tuesday states has been. It’s mainly true but doesn’t mean Bernie can’t win, just that he’ll win along normal Dem lines with the normal dem coalition, and not at the head of a mass movement. Bear in mind we’ve had literally one normal loving election at this point too, so things could change.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:05
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Cabbit posted:I put on an audio feed of MSNBC for my nightly walk and, y'all, James Carville is so loving dumb. Jesus Christ. Oh my lord, what's he saying now?
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Feb 26, 2020 06:05
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rubin literally has no idea what life is like outside of DC
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Feb 26, 2020 06:05
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Wicked Them Beats posted:Primary turnout and general election turnout aren't really related. People have also said in this thread that turnout was low for 2016 and it was actually higher than 2012. If Bernie has the same turnout percentage but changes the demographics of that turnout it would be good.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:07
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Cabbit posted:Where do you live that has local news like that, because I want to live there too. Northampton, MA. Our crosswalks are pride flags. Edit: Wait, when the gently caress did Chris Christie start not giving a gently caress and having actual good takes on things.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:10
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Every turnout estimate also has to deal with the fact that 2008 was a colossal spike in turnout, Obama and all, that’s unlikely to be replicated. Turnout during primaries could also mean a bunch of things, including a large chunk of voters that are basically fine with all or most of the candidates. If turnout remains relatively low on Super Tuesday, then maybe start worrying about the general.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:11
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Paradoxish posted:Never, ever trust people in these threads to accurately gauge how a debate is going. I've been reading stupid D&D live posting debate threads for like a decade and a half and people always assume their candidate did horrible and always think it's going to be the end of them. Watching it go down in real time it seemed like that one bad answer and the shady audience triggered a wave of panic that all was lost and Bernie was hosed tonight. It took a while before the thread came back to its senses (and for some real OGs in the audience to pick up on what was happening and start screaming back.) It makes sense, I was nervous too, but it was all 'fine', fine as it could be given the circumstances. My personal feeling is it's really not gonna matter, the weapons they're bringing out against Bernie are the things that would convince someone not to vote for him who was always going to vote Trump anyway. It's just my feeling, and based on growing up in an always blue union family, but even my grandparents can pick up on the bullshit. Honestly the more obvious the bullshit is might be for the better, subtle ratfucking gets picked up by Twitter and the terminally online, but this stuff, the whole primary season not just the debate, gets picked up by everyone who's even half paying attention. And we see it, Bernie's winning.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:12
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BrainDance posted:Watching it go down in real time it seemed like that one bad answer and the shady audience triggered a wave of panic that all was lost and Bernie was hosed tonight. It took a while before the thread came back to its senses (and for some real OGs in the audience to pick up on what was happening and start screaming back.) i mean the CBS group thought bernie was the best to go against trump and did the best in the debate. bernie sticks to his guns and says smart and right stuff.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:14
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Paradoxish posted:Warren doesn't matter, though. Everyone said Bernie did great last debate in the live thread. Paradoxish posted:Never, ever trust people in these threads to accurately gauge how a debate is going. I've been reading stupid D&D live posting debate threads for like a decade and a half and people always assume their candidate did horrible and always think it's going to be the end of them. So this is nonsense, as it applies to the 2019/2020 debates. I mean, anyone following the primary threads knows that Warren for example received a significant bump in both donations and polling data after her good performance knifing Bloomberg. Bernie too. You're talking poo poo from 2015/2016 like it means something now.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:18
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droll posted:Everyone said Bernie did great last debate in the live thread. People in the Nevada debate thread were convinced that Warren was going to surge and ruin Bernie’s lead in Nevada.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:20
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1 or 2 people. Cool story. It's meaningless. The overwhelming majority said Bernie did great. You're gonna need to back up your claims with some data if you want to pursue this further.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:21
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Paradoxish posted:People in the Nevada debate thread were convinced that Warren was going to surge and ruin Bernie’s lead in Nevada. yeah. i think warren is gonna stick around until after super tuesday than drop. Bernie did well for the most part tonight and won for it. biden did well enough tonight too.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:22
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droll posted:I mean, anyone following the primary threads knows that Warren for example received a significant bump in both donations and polling data after her good performance knifing Bloomberg. She got a bump in donations, her polling bump was minimal at best and has quickly faded and didn't help her at all in Nevada
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Feb 26, 2020 06:23
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Look, I pendulum swing wildly and seemingly at random. I'm a total lightweight and I appreciate having this place as an outlet for my flailing, even if it isn't that healthy. 
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Feb 26, 2020 06:24
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Majorian posted:Oh my lord, what's he saying now? Some garbage about how actually every poll Bernie ever cited was useless and everyone knows it but his supporters are a cult, or something like that. I switched over to CNN in disgust because it was that bad and proceeded about the business of bleaching that memory.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:26
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droll posted:1 or 2 people. Cool story. It's meaningless. The overwhelming majority said Bernie did great. You're gonna need to back up your claims with some data if you want to pursue this further. Please see volume 42 issue 7 of the Journal of Something Awful studies for a full breakdown of the data
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Feb 26, 2020 06:26
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If tonight's debate did anything to nudge polls I'd be shocked. Particularly in SC where Bernie and Biden are considered the only candidates who could win it anyway.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:31
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah. i think warren is gonna stick around until after super tuesday than drop. Bernie did well for the most part tonight and won for it. biden did well enough tonight too. Yeah. I think the only way this debate could have mattered in even a marginal way is if someone really hurt Biden. Apparently Biden's obvious signs of dementia aren't enough to turn off voters, so it's probably all a wash.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:32
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mutata posted:Look, I pendulum swing wildly and seemingly at random. I'm a total lightweight and I appreciate having this place as an outlet for my flailing, even if it isn't that healthy. Just keep the Mac-10 holstered, please 
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Feb 26, 2020 06:32
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No one's dropping out before super tuesday, that would make absolutely no sense. I imagine in their speeches after the counts two of Warren/Buttigeig/Klobuchar will drop will out if Sanders does well. Steyer will likely also drop out if super tuesday shows a clear leader. Bloomberg is a poo poo who will stay. Biden will likely stay. Whichever of Buttigeig/Warren/Klobuchar outperforms will stay.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:33
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https://twitter.com/TurncoatD/status/1232537806964064257?s=19 it's time. Bernie knows the fix is in and he's gotta fight the DNC
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Feb 26, 2020 06:35
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BrainDance posted:Please see volume 42 issue 7 of the Journal of Something Awful studies for a full breakdown of the data Yes please, do not tarnish this thread’s stringent empirical standards. Speaking of stats shitposting, this is a useful way to frame things to anyone you know who likes bernie but is worried about electability: https://twitter.com/JakeMGrumbach/status/1231313734099857408 Fill Baptismal fucked around with this message at 06:40 on Feb 26, 2020 |
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Feb 26, 2020 06:35
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well, not getting those hours of my life back. let this be a lesson to me: choose video games. choose life
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Feb 26, 2020 06:36
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Why would anyone on the ballot for Super Tuesday drop out before then, it's upon us already? Even if you're sure you were dead and didn't have any money to spend? Unless you just don't want to endure some big humiliating losses to preserve a future political career? (Looking at you, Pete)
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Feb 26, 2020 06:36
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:well, not getting those hours of my life back. let this be a lesson to me: choose video games. choose life Yah I watched 15 minutes then went to play board games and do not regret that decision. gently caress the dnc and these networks. Giving Bernie another $20.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:39
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Just found out I got a AV, but I don't know from who and why. I suspect it was related to a Bernie-related-gifting-spree months ago, so I'm gonna make my first ever political donation to Bernie.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:39
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RazzleDazzleHour posted:https://twitter.com/TurncoatD/status/1232537806964064257?s=19  Call them out on their bullshit.
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Feb 26, 2020 06:39
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