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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I mean among goon diagnoses. People who absolutely did not have it saying whatever the last random illness they had was "probably" this I had a beer too many on Saturday and felt really groggy and had a mild headache on Sunday so I've bought 400 reams of toilet paper, a bunch of canned chilli and started a new Witcher III save to ride this out.
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Mar 2, 2020 21:05
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Soooo the numbers of deaths as compared to confirmed cases in the US would seem to mean that there are a TON of undiagnosed cases out there...
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Mar 2, 2020 21:08
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4 more people died in Washington State according to CNN
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Mar 2, 2020 21:09
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Bardeh posted:Soooo the numbers of deaths as compared to confirmed cases in the US would seem to mean that there are a TON of undiagnosed cases out there...
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Mar 2, 2020 21:14
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Bardeh posted:Soooo the numbers of deaths as compared to confirmed cases in the US would seem to mean that there are a TON of undiagnosed cases out there... That's what the gene sequencing of one of the Washington cases suggests. Based on mutation speed, it's been in Washington for at least six weeks. Tends to suggest that there are a lot of mild cases, not just the catastrophic ones. In other news, there's been a case announced in my county i'm going to diiiiiieee
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Mar 2, 2020 21:15
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtulL3oArQw it's a pretty good song
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Mar 2, 2020 21:17
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All the US deaths still older people?
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Mar 2, 2020 21:19
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Rinkles posted:All the US deaths still older people? So far.
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Mar 2, 2020 21:20
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Arsenic Lupin posted:That's what the gene sequencing of one of the Washington cases suggests. Based on mutation speed, it's been in Washington for at least six weeks. Tends to suggest that there are a lot of mild cases, not just the catastrophic ones. That's what I read too, Washington state has had it for a long time. Six weeks put roughly around the complete lock down of Wuhan iirc.
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Mar 2, 2020 21:20
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Rinkles posted:All the US deaths still older people? Specifics not announced but people in long term nursing, so probably.
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Mar 2, 2020 21:21
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Arsenic Lupin posted:That's what the gene sequencing of one of the Washington cases suggests. Based on mutation speed, it's been in Washington for at least six weeks. Tends to suggest that there are a lot of mild cases, not just the catastrophic ones. Six weeks with unchecked doubling (since no real measures were in place) could mean 2^12= 4096 cases in Washington, assuming starting with one case six weeks ago, no other incoming patients, and doubling time 3.5 days (2-5 days for doubling was suggested in earlier research). Of course that's a pretty lousy prediction, based on really really basic assumptions, but if it's remotely accurate WA is dealing with numbers that could be tracked and contained.
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Mar 2, 2020 21:23
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We closed schools because someone's someone had a possible tested case, they're cleaning everything with a surface in the schools and bus pool so... I guess we're back tomorrow? Maybe? Forever closed.
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Mar 2, 2020 21:31
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Number is going up though, so that's good.
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Mar 2, 2020 21:32
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ma i married a tuna posted:Six weeks with unchecked doubling (since no real measures were in place) could mean 2^12= 4096 cases in Washington, assuming starting with one case six weeks ago, no other incoming patients, and doubling time 3.5 days (2-5 days for doubling was suggested in earlier research). Of course that's a pretty lousy prediction, based on really really basic assumptions, but if it's remotely accurate WA is dealing with numbers that could be tracked and contained. This could be off by an order of magnitude in either direction. Those average doubling rates really only apply to larger populations. If the first person in WA was a super spreader they could have infected hundreds of people before they got sick.
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Mar 2, 2020 21:36
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It has been incredibly useful for identifying sociopaths, though!
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Mar 2, 2020 21:36
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Rinkles posted:All the US deaths still older people? And one guy in his 50s with "underlying conditions"
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Mar 2, 2020 21:40
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Yeah it's not like that death church in Korea was only doubling every 3-4 days, those numbers exploded very rapidly because doubling rates are only a rough approximation of how this poo poo works in sufficiently-large sample sizes.
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Mar 2, 2020 21:40
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A reminder that one of the hot spots in WA is an assisted living home that would naturally have a higher mortality rate than average. I'm guessing most of the deaths in the next few days will be coming from there.
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Mar 2, 2020 21:42
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I saw in the news the Number went back up, Trump must be winning
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Mar 2, 2020 21:50
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the market has spoken: coronavirus is good bet it'll go down another 2000+ points later this week tho
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Mar 2, 2020 22:01
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Mozi posted:the market has spoken: coronavirus is good Based on some of the stuff coming out of china it's likely not to tank like it did last week, probably not a bad time to pick up some cheap stocks on the bump.
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Mar 2, 2020 22:13
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I want that number to die so bad. That being said, the number surged on promised stimulus.
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Mar 2, 2020 22:14
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Seph posted:This could be off by an order of magnitude in either direction. Those average doubling rates really only apply to larger populations. If the first person in WA was a super spreader they could have infected hundreds of people before they got sick. You're right. This is total amateur speculation, but since the professionals aren't speculating I figure I'd give it a shot. I didn't post this in order for people to start saying "there's definitely 4k infections in WA", but as a way of giving some *possible* idea of the scale of the actual problem.
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Mar 2, 2020 22:14
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bomb posted:Based on some of the stuff coming out of china it's likely not to tank like it did last week, probably not a bad time to pick up some cheap stocks on the bump. I hope my fund manager did, I held steady.
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Mar 2, 2020 22:15
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can anyone please explain what the gently caress was going on in Italy to be a supercenter?
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Mar 2, 2020 22:21
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Ah, so you haven't seen the crowds of Chinese tourists all over Italy's sights then...
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Mar 2, 2020 22:24
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TheBuilder posted:can anyone please explain what the gently caress was going on in Italy to be a supercenter? every time someone in Italy cooked a meal or tasted a well-cooked meal, they would bring their fingers to their lips and kiss them. as we now know, this kind of behavior is precisely what the CDC recommends against
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Mar 2, 2020 22:24
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TheBuilder posted:can anyone please explain what the gently caress was going on in Italy to be a supercenter? it's a massive tourism hub
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Mar 2, 2020 22:25
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I mean among goon diagnoses. People who absolutely did not have it saying whatever the last random illness they had was "probably" this
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Mar 2, 2020 22:27
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Pick posted:It has been incredibly useful for identifying sociopaths, though!
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Mar 2, 2020 22:29
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TheBuilder posted:can anyone please explain what the gently caress was going on in Italy to be a supercenter? Tourism Remember this poo poo happened during Chinese New Year when a gently caress ton of them went on vacation.
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Mar 2, 2020 22:30
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hallelujah posted:i'm side-eyeing any goon that calls it "corona-chan" Who has said this? This isn't a thing is it? You know what I don't want to know
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Mar 2, 2020 22:30
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lol my mum's first emergency shopping list was like handwash, bleach, toilet paper, tinned tomatoes... smoked salmon, cream cheese, box chardonnay we also have three different types of rice stockpiled. delicious brown basmati will see me through the end times
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Mar 2, 2020 22:31
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pixaal posted:Who has said this? This isn't a thing is it? You know what I don't want to know https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bKr6YYr6y8
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Mar 2, 2020 22:31
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UnknownTarget posted:I want that number to die so bad. but it doesn't make sense. the fed cutting rates is not going to help where there is both a supply and demand shock. it's just bullshit on bullshit on bullshit and it's going up because some pharma group says they are making progress or some poo poo. still gonna be at least a year+ for a vaccine! the only way this remotely makes sense is that smarter people are still grifting idiots somehow
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Mar 2, 2020 22:31
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pixaal posted:Who has said this? This isn't a thing is it? You know what I don't want to know
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Mar 2, 2020 22:32
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Grift
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Mar 2, 2020 22:32
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Bonaventure posted:every time someone in Italy cooked a meal or tasted a well-cooked meal, they would bring their fingers to their lips and kiss them. 
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Mar 2, 2020 22:33
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Mozi posted:but it doesn't make sense. the fed cutting rates is not going to help where there is both a supply and demand shock. it's just bullshit on bullshit on bullshit It's the stock market. It's not an estimate of market fundamentals. It's an accurate estimate of the average beliefs of the investor class, and investors are still people. People who can fall for some ridiculously dumb group-think just like any other large group of people. The past few decades should have taught you that rich does not equal smart does not equal unemotional and MBA does not equal smart does not equal unemotional.
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Mar 2, 2020 22:35
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golden bubble posted:It's the stock market. It's not an estimate of market fundamentals. It's an accurate estimate of the average beliefs of the investor class, and investors are still people. People who can fall for some ridiculously dumb group-think just like any other large group of people. Once there are hard numbers like from an earnings report people tend to shift to a more realistic number in the market. Most companies already reported Q1 and don't report until the end of April next. Until then it's just speculation on what their earnings will be. Not that the stock price is strictly tied to earnings, a bad or good report does tend to move the price of a stock.
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Mar 2, 2020 22:37
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