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Jagged Jim posted:Welp. ReindeerF posted:Thanks for jumping in there and taking the heat off of Texas, Florida. We can always count on you.  FlamingLiberal posted:Feels like Texas is going to be the next shitshow, maybe worse than us here in FL Edit: First GIS result for Texas Florida Dog tax... 
Cable Guy fucked around with this message at 07:11 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 07:09
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florida man, the dog
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Apr 6, 2020 07:14
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enraged_camel posted:i can tell you with 100% confidence that some of us will at least try 
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Apr 6, 2020 07:21
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Nonsense posted:We need a state shutdown, we will be extremely lucky if Abbott does it. Extremely lucky but it is likely too late. We got one, but only last week. The big cities were ahead of the curve by two-three weeks, but it might not be enough.
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Apr 6, 2020 07:21
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Status update: stapled a roll of barbed wire to the top of the privacy fence. Started sitting on the porch on warm days and make a show of cleaning a toy shotgun with the orange caps ripped off while glaring at passersby. Won't do much in a real invasion scenario, but every bit of scare tactics help. Folks inside are starting to go stir crazy, but I have ways to pursuasively enforce the lock-in. No one's leaving the premises on my watch without drat good reason. Anyone got any tips for tamping down other people's wanderlust? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 6, 2020 08:03
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Your posts are getting more and more  and I feel bad for the people stuck with you
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Apr 6, 2020 08:08
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FlamingLiberal posted:Feels like Texas is going to be the next shitshow, maybe worse than us here in FL Wow you just just easily see when they started testing. Looks like they just started reporting hospitalizations for real today.
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Apr 6, 2020 08:09
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Kerning Chameleon posted:Status update: stapled a roll of barbed wire to the top of the privacy fence. Started sitting on the porch on warm days and make a show of cleaning a toy shotgun with the orange caps ripped off while glaring at passersby. Won't do much in a real invasion scenario, but every bit of scare tactics help. If you're trolling, gently caress off to the C-SPAM thread and compete with the other ones. Pretty sure at the rate they were going before I unfollowed the thread, this virus will kill all of us thrice over. If you're not trolling, get help.
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Apr 6, 2020 08:12
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Kerning Chameleon posted:Status update: stapled a roll of barbed wire to the top of the privacy fence. Started sitting on the porch on warm days and make a show of cleaning a toy shotgun with the orange caps ripped off while glaring at passersby. Won't do much in a real invasion scenario, but every bit of scare tactics help. siri how do I report this maniac to the authorities
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Apr 6, 2020 08:12
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Deviant posted:siri how do I report this maniac to the authorities if you send an email to tips@nytimes.com they will write an article about how maybe this is a good way for everyone to act.
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Apr 6, 2020 08:18
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Kerning Chameleon posted:Anyone got any tips for tamping down other people's wanderlust? Maybe if you left they wouldn't want to?
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Apr 6, 2020 08:19
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That IHME model that lots of people said was too optimistic was updated. It's gotten more optimistic. 81.7k dead in the US, down from 95k. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
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Apr 6, 2020 08:21
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Stereotype posted:if you send an email to tips@nytimes.com they will write an article about how maybe this is a good way for everyone to act. are you kidding, that looks like featured editorial material, to me
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Apr 6, 2020 08:25
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Kerning Chameleon posted:
Just break their legs. This will make them think twice before moving around to much. Seriously though, you sound insane and I can totally see how everyone wants to get away from you. They can't even go out on the porch, because there's a madman glaring at them. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 08:37 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 08:27
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Kerning Chameleon is a lunatic who has already been probated itt many times for posting insane bullshit, just ignore them
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Apr 6, 2020 08:31
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runoverbobby posted:That IHME model that lots of people said was too optimistic was updated. Colorado's gone from busting way out of its capacity for beds and ICU in a week to... the peak was yesterday and everything is cool. Wow will my sister be awfully glad to hear that. Her next shift is tomorrow night so it'll be interesting to get a feel for how it is on the ground.
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Apr 6, 2020 08:52
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This is fine. https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/status/1246946006933127168?s=19
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Apr 6, 2020 08:55
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keep punching joe posted:This is fine. Are these... the ones Rihanna paid for
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Apr 6, 2020 08:58
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Steve Yun posted:Are these... the ones Rihanna paid for It doesn't look like it. quote:While five devices donated from Barbados-born international pop star Rihanna would reach the island soon.
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Apr 6, 2020 09:01
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To inject some levity into this (kinda), a group of local elders in the milanese countryside has hatched a diabolical plan: at dawn, they got out of their places in secret to stash a table and some chairs in the local woods; later that day, each of them eluded friends and family with an excuse and reached the designated hideout. Then, they started playing cards. The only issue: they were swearing so hard and loud that people living close to the woods heard them, and called the police on them. https://www.sportlegnano.it/2020/04/imprecazioni-e-bestemmie-scoperti-mentre-giocano-a-briscola-lungo-il-canale-villoresi/267042/
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Apr 6, 2020 09:21
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keep punching joe posted:This is fine. Isn't the US kind of asking for retaliation in kind, or at least torching a lot of good will - not just now but over the next 6-9 months? It's going to seriously piss off a lot of people around the world if they can't get the medical supplies they need because of a sloppy President.
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Apr 6, 2020 09:40
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SecretOfSteel posted:Isn't the US kind of asking for retaliation in kind, or at least torching a lot of good will - not just now but over the next 6-9 months? It's going to seriously piss off a lot of people around the world ... This section of your post has been applicable to every foreign policy story of the Trump administration. Plus most US foreign policy since the Monroe Doctrine was abandoned
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Apr 6, 2020 09:44
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https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-moguls-rupert-and-lachlan-murdoch-stockpile-attorneys-against-coronavirus-lawsuits Please
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Apr 6, 2020 10:11
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Kerning Chameleon posted:Anyone got any tips for tamping down other people's wanderlust? Have you seen the movie Misery?
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Apr 6, 2020 10:35
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Speaking of wet markets and westerners being able to report on whats happening on China, the Youtube channel Chinese Cooking Demystified released a video on the topic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whbyuy2nHBg
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Apr 6, 2020 11:16
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Adenoid Dan posted:https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-moguls-rupert-and-lachlan-murdoch-stockpile-attorneys-against-coronavirus-lawsuits The notion that news outlets can be held accountable for bad poo poo happening because people acted on their misinformation opens a fantastic can of worms. I wonder if we're going to have a talk about yelling "FIRE!" in a crowded theater...
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Apr 6, 2020 11:17
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HolHorsejob posted:The notion that news outlets can be held accountable for bad poo poo happening because people acted on their misinformation opens a fantastic can of worms. I wonder if we're going to have a talk about yelling "FIRE!" in a crowded theater... This went pretty much out the window when the FCC eliminated the fairness doctrine in 1987. If this was still in play you might have a case, but not when biased media is normalized like now.
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Apr 6, 2020 11:23
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SecretOfSteel posted:Isn't the US kind of asking for retaliation in kind, or at least torching a lot of good will - not just now but over the next 6-9 months? It's going to seriously piss off a lot of people around the world if they can't get the medical supplies they need because of a sloppy President. lol yeah of course everyone is going to absolutely hate us after this if they dont already.
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Apr 6, 2020 11:34
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runoverbobby posted:That IHME model that lots of people said was too optimistic was updated. A good way to understand why the model should be questioned is to think of it this way: it predicts only ~1,500 deaths between May 16th and August 4th:  As we have said many times before, all of our models are garbage. What is important to realize however is that we don't have a way of concluding that this particular model is the least garbage one among them. Note that IMHE has not released details on the methodology, the assumptions, the specific numbers and percentages used for R0, or how the data is collected. All they have released are some pretty charts. Slow News Day fucked around with this message at 11:45 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 11:39
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runoverbobby posted:That IHME model that lots of people said was too optimistic was updated. The outlook for Ohio in these projections has gotten significantly better over the last week or so. Now it says cases will peak in about two days and they only think 544 deaths will occur by August. Didn't Columbus stop reporting confirmed cases, though?
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Apr 6, 2020 11:49
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The current R0 of Corona in Norway appears to be under 1. (In Norwegian) Pretty awesome news. However, it is not really clear where we should go from here. I guess we should ease up on some of the restrictions at some point, but we're still really vulnerable to new flare-ups. I imagine it is going to be pretty difficult to publicly justify keeping the schools/kindergartens closed for much longer, no matter how necessary it might be. Finding the right amount of measures that keep the hospitals busy without overwhelming them is not an easy task.
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Apr 6, 2020 11:50
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NofrikinfuN posted:The outlook for Ohio in these projections has gotten significantly better over the last week or so. Now it says cases will peak in about two days and they only think 544 deaths will occur by August. The other thing to look at is Texas. We are the second most populous state, and our entire state is supposed to peak at 72 deaths a day, two weeks from now?
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Apr 6, 2020 11:58
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Re IHME, Someone pointed out that the new model is already broken out the gate, as it overstates the number of hospitalizations that occurred in New York on April 5. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1247010068148731904?s=19 Also, they're pointing to the fact that Washington and Oregon have felt comfortable passing their ventilators on to New York to suggest that the worst is over/never was that bad outside of the NYC outlier. Obviously, you know something worked if it feels like an overreaction in hindsight, but I really don't know what to think right now. EDIT: The actual figure is within the stated margin of error, but that's a wide-rear end margin of error. I think we'll see some policy changes as a result, I just don't know if that's a good thing.
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Apr 6, 2020 12:02
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enraged_camel posted:A good way to understand why the model should be questioned is to think of it this way: it predicts only ~1,500 deaths between May 16th and August 4th: How many deaths is the right number? Why is your gut feeling the right number models have to be judged against?
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Apr 6, 2020 12:04
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:How many deaths is the right number? Why is your gut feeling the right number models have to be judged against? Look at the tweet The Modern Leper posted above. Predictive models are only as useful as their prediction capabilities, and this one can't even get today right? edit: one of the replies caught this: https://twitter.com/emilysuvada/status/1247015258058665984
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Apr 6, 2020 12:09
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To be honest it seems like the model is pretty close to actual in an almost unpredictable situation. Maybe the USA, or at least some states, really do have this under control.
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Apr 6, 2020 12:13
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It’s a model, not a magic psychic mirror. Predicting 142 when the answer is 167 is totally reasonable.
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Apr 6, 2020 12:15
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:It’s a model, not a magic psychic mirror. Predicting 142 when the answer is 167 is totally reasonable. It's not 142 vs 167. The 167 is only for New York City.
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Apr 6, 2020 12:17
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Bottom Liner posted:Your posts are getting more and more
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Apr 6, 2020 12:18
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html NY hit 594 deaths yesterday according to this. The model says 713, so again, pretty close.
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Apr 6, 2020 12:18
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