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HookShot
Dec 26, 2005

PT6A posted:

I get that, but I'm just not sure about the "they make more money/lose less money staying closed" part. They probably won't be making money at 25% capacity, but they might be losing less money than if they were closed but still on the hook for rent.

On top of all of the other reasons tons of people have already given you, restaurants that were ordered closed can collect on business interruption insurance. As soon as they're ordered to reopen, at 25% capacity, they lose the ability to collect that insurance, and now have to run at a major loss.

HookShot fucked around with this message at 04:25 on Apr 30, 2020

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Aeka 2.0
Nov 16, 2000

:ohdear: Have you seen my apex seals? I seem to have lost them.




Dinosaur Gum
Like Coronavirus is listed in their policy, lol.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS
Don’t most insurances not cover things that are catastrophic, like earthquakes, or similar events that would cause everyone to make a claim?

sheri
Dec 30, 2002

HookShot posted:

On top of all of the other reasons tons of people have already given you, restaurants that were ordered closed can collect on business interruption insurance. As soon as they're ordered to reopen, at 25% capacity, they lose the ability to collect that insurance, and now have to run at a major loss.

Almost every single insurance company out there is going to have a virus, disease, and pandemic exclusion for business interruption coverage. They aren't getting paid anything from insurance from business interruption coverage.

I know this because I work in insurance and am currently dealing with the requirements coming in from all the states telling us we have to notify our customers again that their BI coverage doesn't apply here due to said exclusion.

3rdEyeDeuteranopia
Sep 12, 2007

All of the places within 2 miles of me, over a dozen locations including 4x Asian restaurants, switched to takeout / delivery. Only a pita place has closed.

3rdEyeDeuteranopia
Sep 12, 2007


I ordered one. We'll see how they turn out. Worst case, the profits get donated.

Only registered members can see post attachments!

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005
Well, the business owners near me who are all complaining that their insurance won't pay out without a "you must be closed" order are all wrong, I guess.

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Insurance policies aren’t one size fits all and if they go to court, and there’s an ambiguous provision that could go either way, it’s construed against the insurer. Of course that presupposes you have the money to fight about it

sheri
Dec 30, 2002

HookShot posted:

Well, the business owners near me who are all complaining that their insurance won't pay out without a "you must be closed" order are all wrong, I guess.

Keep in mind they are likely hearing this from their agents, who are salespeople and want to tell them whatever they can to make them happy but they don't have the money to pay claims.

The claims reps, underwriters, legal and compliance groups working for insurance companies will make the coverage determination and right now the industry is definitely on "nope, absolutely not" because you can't underwrite and price a global pandemic. Hence the exclusion being very standard across the industry.

It'll likely get taken to court all over the country but the standard form that most big and small in the industry use clearly excludes BI for this situation. So...even if they do get paid they'll be waiting years and years.

C2C - 2.0
May 14, 2006

Dubs In The Key Of Life


Lipstick Apathy

HookShot posted:

Well, the business owners near me who are all complaining that their insurance won't pay out without a "you must be closed" order are all wrong, I guess.

The CEO for my restaurant, who is also the president of the National Restaurant Association, explained the concept behind why business interruption insurance isn't likely to pay out for Covid-19. He'd already checked with our insurers, who basically said "Nope". The reason is that usually business interruption insurance is used for a very localized situation, either in a neighborhood, a city, or a state....maybe in a region. When it kicks in, everyone else is still paying into the system while the affected businesses aren't. But with a pandemic (which isn't listed as a valid reason to receive payout), all of the sudden everyone with the insurance is making a claim. The insurers would go broke overnight if they paid out every claim.

grack
Jan 10, 2012

COACH TOTORO SAY REFEREE CAN BANISH WHISTLE TO LAND OF WIND AND GHOSTS!
IDK if this has been posted already, but here's Mike Pence's official reason for not wearing a mask during his Mayo Clinic visit:

quote:

“And since I don’t have the coronavirus, I thought it’d be a good opportunity for me to be here, to be able to speak to these researchers, these incredible health-care personnel, and look them in the eye and say, ‘Thank you.’”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/29/sweet-god-where-are-mike-pences-eyes/

sheri
Dec 30, 2002

Also a lot of BI coverage is tied to property damage for a covered property as well. So if there isn't any physical damage to covered property it wouldn't kick in anyway.

C2C - 2.0
May 14, 2006

Dubs In The Key Of Life


Lipstick Apathy

grack posted:

IDK if this has been posted already, but here's Mike Pence's official reason for not wearing a mask during his Mayo Clinic visit:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/29/sweet-god-where-are-mike-pences-eyes/

Thing is, I expect Pence to be an idiot. I didn't expect the folks at Mayo to not only bow to (and thus perpetuate) the idiocy, but also completely ignore the rest of the population in the facility.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

sheri posted:

Almost every single insurance company out there is going to have a virus, disease, and pandemic exclusion for business interruption coverage. They aren't getting paid anything from insurance from business interruption coverage.

I know this because I work in insurance and am currently dealing with the requirements coming in from all the states telling us we have to notify our customers again that their BI coverage doesn't apply here due to said exclusion.

what i really hate about this is the implication insurance people were totally aware of the risks and implications of a modern pandemic, even when political leaders were apparently oblivious.

sheri
Dec 30, 2002

Squalid posted:

what i really hate about this is the implication insurance people were totally aware of the risks and implications of a modern pandemic, even when political leaders were apparently oblivious.

Yup.

This became industry standard really quick after SARS.

Niwrad
Jul 1, 2008

Most small restaurants will be out of business by the time this is over. Hoping takeout and 25% capacity will keep them afloat for a year or so seems really optimistic.

Cable Guy
Jul 18, 2005

I don't expect any trouble, but we'll be handing these out later...




Slippery Tilde

3rdEyeDeuteranopia posted:

....Worst case, the profits get donated.

Good luck with that.

Peaceful Anarchy
Sep 18, 2005
sXe
I am the math man.

Squalid posted:

what i really hate about this is the implication insurance people were totally aware of the risks and implications of a modern pandemic, even when political leaders were apparently oblivious.
Just the implications. You don't need to be aware of the risk if the implications are so big that you decide not to insure against it. If the implications are big enough it doesn't matter if the risk is one in a million one in 10000 or one in 100, the cost to cover even the smallest risk is so big that it's not worth considering because pricing it out is too uncertain and no one would pay the premium you'd need to bring you certainty. Political leaders, for the most part, were also aware of the implications, they just don't have the ability to exclude themselves from the issue. They also consider risk on a lot political dimensions.

phydeaux
Jul 29, 2003
Nose Army. Jigsaw. Smellsign.

HookShot posted:

Well, the business owners near me who are all complaining that their insurance won't pay out without a "you must be closed" order are all wrong, I guess.

I’m a small business owner in NYC and within days of everyone starting to perk their ears up about this I received a notice in the mail from my insurer reminding me about the exclusion for pandemics. It’s like something from a cartoon where there’s a guy with a giant net full of these notices just waiting to pull the lever that drops them directly to the post office.

Tenchrono
Jun 2, 2011


1glitch0 posted:

That's horrific. From what I watched on a CNN the other day (so take it with a grain of salt) the Coranovirus appears weirdly connected to that disease and no one seems to know how and why it's happening in little kids. Hopefully it's nothing.

However, I would recommend the new thread title being: Coronavirus: My dick almost fell off

It gets a big yikes from me if it is somehow causing it in children. When I was growing up the leading consensus was that somehow cleaning chemicals caused it. My mom was a big clean freak when I was younger and I’m sure theres a ton more people spraying god knows what to clean and disinfect things so maybe its linked that way. :shrug: I just know shits going to turn south if the virus mutated enough to cause it. There isnt a great wealth of information about Kawasaki last I checked, especially compared to other diseases as less than 20,000 kids get it each year and if not caught early enough it can have a fairly high mortality rate, especially if the hospitals are struggling already,

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Squalid posted:

what i really hate about this is the implication insurance people were totally aware of the risks and implications of a modern pandemic, even when political leaders were apparently oblivious.

Same as the military having plans for war with Canada or whoever- they made it someone's job to think of everything.

runoverbobby
Apr 21, 2007

Fighting like beavers.

Squalid posted:

what i really hate about this is the implication insurance people were totally aware of the risks and implications of a modern pandemic, even when political leaders were apparently oblivious.

Similar to what Peaceful Anarchy said - they weren't aware of the risk, only the implications.

You can scope-out something with catastrophic implications even if you think it will never happen.

Jack2142
Jul 17, 2014

Shitposting in Seattle

Squalid posted:

what i really hate about this is the implication insurance people were totally aware of the risks and implications of a modern pandemic, even when political leaders were apparently oblivious.

Insurance is an evil industry controlled by sentient vampire squids and their actuaries.

Snowy
Oct 6, 2010

A man whose blood
Is very snow-broth;
One who never feels
The wanton stings and
Motions of the sense



So with all this herd immunity talk going around, do we actually know that anyone is immune? I thought it still wasn’t known for sure if it was possible to catch it again, and that antibody tests couldn’t confirm anything for sure yet.

I admittedly haven’t been keeping up with all the updates

I did find this nice morel

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Snowy posted:

So with all this herd immunity talk going around, do we actually know that anyone is immune? I thought it still wasn’t known for sure if it was possible to catch it again, and that antibody tests couldn’t confirm anything for sure yet.

I admittedly haven’t been keeping up with all the updates

I did find this nice morel


“Nobody has immunity for any meaningful period of time, and it’s not possible to develop a vaccine” — everyone ITT

WaltherFeng
May 15, 2013

50 thousand people used to live here. Now, it's the Mushroom Kingdom.

Jack2142 posted:

Insurance is an evil industry controlled by sentient vampire squids and their actuaries.

The benefits are good and I was promised a painless death

:cthulhu:

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Snowy posted:

So with all this herd immunity talk going around, do we actually know that anyone is immune? I thought it still wasn’t known for sure if it was possible to catch it again, and that antibody tests couldn’t confirm anything for sure yet.

I admittedly haven’t been keeping up with all the updates

I did find this nice morel


Everybody who’s caught it has immunity for some period of time that remains to be determined

We don’t know if it’s more than a year because it’s April

Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 06:42 on Apr 30, 2020

Ratoslov
Feb 15, 2012

Now prepare yourselves! You're the guests of honor at the Greatest Kung Fu Cannibal BBQ Ever!

Fallom posted:

Everybody who’s caught it has immunity for some period of time that remains to be determined

Yeah, we haven't done long-term testing because that is literally impossible.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
This seems like a good use of plastic and industrial molding at the moment!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/us/mattel-heroes-toys-trnd/index.html

I mean, not like Mattel couldn't retool. :cripes:

If people with basic 3D printers can churn out face shield holders and miscellany, what should Mattel be able to do with their facilities? Sure, $15 out of every $20 goes to an organization that supports health care workers, but hey, might as well take $5 profit for our trouble! :v:

BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 07:38 on Apr 30, 2020

Tacier
Jul 22, 2003

Delorence Fickle posted:

Early on in March, several DC bars and restaurants tried that. The mayor was not having it.

https://twitter.com/MurielBowser/status/1239511799847936000

Can't operate when the city pulls your liquor and operating licenses.

This is a barbershop, and an MMA gym just opened in the next town over. Not sure any local authorities will do anything in a rural area with a conservative local government.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Snowy posted:

So with all this herd immunity talk going around, do we actually know that anyone is immune? I thought it still wasn’t known for sure if it was possible to catch it again, and that antibody tests couldn’t confirm anything for sure yet.

We are reasonably sure, based on experience with similar viruses and through tests on animals and because we are not seeing reinfection cases.

Nobody knows how long it may last.

Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost

Squalid posted:

what i really hate about this is the implication insurance people were totally aware of the risks and implications of a modern pandemic, even when political leaders were apparently oblivious.

The thing is, lots of politicians were aware of this. They just aren’t the same ones that run the White House.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

EightFlyingCars posted:

I'm a dumbo that hasn't seriously read scientific literature since I graduated from college, could you explain what this means in dumb people words for me?

This is super-simplified, but okay: the trial depends on separating people into two groups, with one group getting the treatment and one group getting a placebo, right? The groups are supposed to be controlled, meaning that differences in outcomes between the two groups can be attributed to which group they were assigned to, and not to other things that were already different between the two groups (like, say, one group got all the overweight people). The groups are supposed to be large enough that any differences between people assigned to them mostly average out - if you randomly assign enough people between the two, the average weight will be the same between them. Another way to talk about it is having bigger, randomly assigned groups means that you are controlling for the latent variance that occurs in people.

However, there's at least one possible problem with the inclusion criteria that could mean that some people in the study are much healthier, or maybe don't even have the virus. This increases the range of variance of people being assigned. If these people aren't evenly split between the groups, their much shorter hospital stays will ruin the results.

Again, that's a simplification based on really limited information from the clinical trials website- but in practice, there are a thousand things like this that can throw off the results of a big complicated study. This is what makes peer review and formal publication so important. Getting expert, critical perspectives from people with knowledge/experience in the subject means you can trust the results more, because the results survived that criticism.

Right now we're getting press releases. We need to wait for the data and publication.

enraged_camel posted:

Makes one wonder why the actual White House has not denounced them

lol just kidding

This entity has actually been a problem for multiple administrations; without getting too far into the details, they've arranged so it would be very expensive and time-consuming to litigate.

jingo
Jul 11, 2002

C2C - 2.0 posted:

Thing is, I expect Pence to be an idiot. I didn't expect the folks at Mayo to not only bow to (and thus perpetuate) the idiocy, but also completely ignore the rest of the population in the facility.

I mean, yeah it's not setting a good example for the plebs or anything, but it's not like anyone was put at risk. If anyone can be know for sure that they aren't an asymptomatic carrier, it's going to be the person second in the chain of succession. They've got to be tested frequently.

Ika
Dec 30, 2004
Pure insanity

Discendo Vox posted:

This is super-simplified, but okay: the trial depends on separating people into two groups, with one group getting the treatment and one group getting a placebo, right? The groups are supposed to be controlled, meaning that differences in outcomes between the two groups can be attributed to which group they were assigned to, and not to other things that were already different between the two groups (like, say, one group got all the overweight people). The groups are supposed to be large enough that any differences between people assigned to them mostly average out - if you randomly assign enough people between the two, the average weight will be the same between them. Another way to talk about it is having bigger, randomly assigned groups means that you are controlling for the latent variance that occurs in people.

However, there's at least one possible problem with the inclusion criteria that could mean that some people in the study are much healthier, or maybe don't even have the virus. This increases the range of variance of people being assigned. If these people aren't evenly split between the groups, their much shorter hospital stays will ruin the results.


Isn't the point of double blind being that people are assigned to the pool of candidates, and then its completely random whether they get the placebo or the real thing? That won't remove selection bias to create the group, but will within the subgroups. Then you are limited by the variance inherent in N=500



Yesterday somebody was mentioning the limited production capacity of the oxford vaccine candidate: Today they announced a partnership to manufacture it in large quantities as not for profit, if it pans out.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Double blind means neither the participants nor the people conducting the experiment knows who's in what group. A third party not involved in the daily execution of the trial does the randomisation.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

jingo posted:

I mean, yeah it's not setting a good example for the plebs or anything, but it's not like anyone was put at risk. If anyone can be know for sure that they aren't an asymptomatic carrier, it's going to be the person second in the chain of succession. They've got to be tested frequently.

I mean Pence was put at risk, but that could only be a good thing

Kaiju Cage Match
Nov 5, 2012




3rdEyeDeuteranopia posted:

I ordered one. We'll see how they turn out. Worst case, the profits get donated.



You'd be better off donating directly.

C2C - 2.0
May 14, 2006

Dubs In The Key Of Life


Lipstick Apathy

jingo posted:

I mean, yeah it's not setting a good example for the plebs or anything, but it's not like anyone was put at risk. If anyone can be know for sure that they aren't an asymptomatic carrier, it's going to be the person second in the chain of succession. They've got to be tested frequently.

It was in direct contravention to the rules Mayo has in place & it normalized (or at least legitimized) Pence's behavior. It was bullshit.

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Beachcomber
May 21, 2007

Another day in paradise.


Slippery Tilde

Jack2142 posted:

Insurance is an evil industry controlled by sentient vampire squids and their actuaries.

Let's not go slandering innocent cephalopods.

Vampire squids are named for their appearance, not their diet. They mostly eat detritus that has fallen from above. They're pretty remarkable because they live in an area of the ocean with no light and very little oxygen where most complex organisms can't survive.

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