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Totally normal https://twitter.com/dataeditor/status/1255896404930834435
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Apr 30, 2020 18:54
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evilweasel posted:the issue with a vaccine by the end of the year is not manufacturing (which you can always speed up to some extent by throwing money at it), but proving it's safe (which you really cannot, as it simply requires time) I wonder what percentage of the population is actually going to take a vaccine. I wonder if it's even 25%. I feel like smeared across the whole spectrum of the population almost every single person is going to find the reason why they specifically won't take this vaccine, ranging from wild kook antivax stuff to "I have reasonable concerns and will not take this" reasons. Also every different institution on earth feels like it'd just automatically make 50% of america distrust it, like if the US makes it, china makes it, israel makes it, the WHO, big pharma, bill gates foundation, it's going to just be totally discounted by huge numbers of people. I wonder if the only solution is going to have to be there being like 20 vaccines approved at different times from different origins and it'll end up being a huge culture signalling thing. And a year from now everyone is going to be like "I got the FDA fast tracked USA america patriot vaccine, not like that other guy who got the chinese developed one 8 months later because he's a commie" and the other guy talking about getting the safe medically tested outside the US one and calling the other guy's one trump juice or something. Like I feel like even beyond normal antivax stuff it's going to be so hard to market a new vaccine in the modern era, everyone is so primed to distrust basically everything in the US I can't imagine how it would come out that would satisfy a large group of americans. (and again, I'm not arguing with you, if the vaccine seems criminally rushed I might ignore medical advice and not take it right away, same as you, but man does this feel like this will become a political thing, with everyone having their own specific matrix of requirements for who and when the vaccine was made that will never line up well across the picky population)
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Apr 30, 2020 18:57
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Can't wait for the first exchange of fire between federal and state forces
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Apr 30, 2020 18:57
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I wonder what percentage of the population is actually going to take a vaccine. I wonder if it's even 25%. i will almost certainly get it when it's offered to me, because it will first have been offered to doctors and i will be able to infer from their reaction what the informed medical opinion on the subject is
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Apr 30, 2020 18:59
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In some alternate universe Trump is President in the 50s using Federal Troops to enforce segregation in the North.
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Apr 30, 2020 19:00
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What. The. gently caress.
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Apr 30, 2020 19:05
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:In some alternate universe Trump is President in the 50s using Federal Troops to enforce segregation in the North. is this kid Donnie or a timedisplaced Donnie thats been backdated born to still be the same age as now
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Apr 30, 2020 19:06
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PhazonLink posted:is this kid Donnie or a timedisplaced Donnie thats been backdated born to still be the same age as now Timedisplaced Donnie.
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Apr 30, 2020 19:08
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evilweasel posted:i will almost certainly get it when it's offered to me, because it will first have been offered to doctors and i will be able to infer from their reaction what the informed medical opinion on the subject is I imagine it'll be super positive at first then eventually the inevitable 1 in 100,000 or 1 in a million side effects will come out, that will become the narrative on what the vaccine does, then the whole thing will break down into squabbling based on whatever the origin of the vaccine was, then it'll factionalize to taking it or not based on if the origin was of the correct political alignment to the individual.
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Apr 30, 2020 19:21
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goethe.cx posted:“Nobody has immunity for any meaningful period of time, and it’s not possible to develop a vaccine” — everyone ITT Nah, I'm a known doomer and even I wouldn't go that far. There is overwhelming evidence that we do form antibodies against Covid-19. There is some evidence that mild illness does not always lead to antibody formation - this is unsurprising, but not problematic in itself. We have other ways to fight infection. How long the antibodies provide immunity and to what extent is still being investigated. Evidence is building that initial immunity is pretty strong. But we don't know how long it lasts. But even if it was weak and short-lived, it may be possible to develop a vaccine. We are, in some cases, capable of creating vaccines that trigger the immune system to develop stronger immunity than a "natural" infection would. There is some evidence that immunity may be localized to specific tissue to some extent or in some cases - as in you gain immunity in your throat, but can still get infected via the eyes. So the jury's still out on a lot of things, but so far everything points at immunity. As for a vaccine, that's anyone's guess. It didn't go so well for SARS - but now they're trying all kinds of poo poo, including the age-old inactivated virus type of vaccines. The ones were you need to farm live virus to create the vaccine - which could have some security issues if it turns out we need to do that on a global scale. I guess a good way to think of immunity, and why it's not just a binary "immunity or not", is like this: The body is constantly under assault by all kinds of poo poo pathogens, and the human immune system is pretty good at fighting off mild infection with parts of the immune system that don't require antibodies. Think of these as a mixture of border guards, regular police and really smart secret agents (that are sadly limited in number). Antibodies are what happens when the immune system decides an invader is a proper threat, manages to identify the threat and starts handing out pictures of the enemy to a specialized corps of scouts. These scouts are pretty awesome, as they can sometimes kill the enemy by themselves, but they can also tag them for destruction by other unit types. As things escalate the immune system lets out increasingly powerful troops, some of which are unfortunately really dumb and cause a lot of collateral damage. Some invaders can wear a disguise (our present enemy does this to some extent) which makes it difficult for the troopers to spot them. Other invaders can body-snatch the immune troopers, which makes the scouts rather useless, and some can even use these to attack the body. Auto-immunity is incidentally what happens when the quality of this whole process isn't good enough or some of the key actors are really dumb and/or paranoid. Sometimes the immune system goes into overdrive, either due to a out of control infection or due to being overzealous and dumb, which leads to sending out pictures of everything and everyone or sending out kill squads that only pay marginal attention to the scouts. This is a cytokine storm and can kill even othewise healthy individuals. A fun part of the immune system are mast cells - these are neurotic chonker cells that explode if they recognize and enemy, or get hurt by invaders. The contain a fun mix of soldiers, klaxons that summon soldiers and/or repair crews, gunk to kill invaders and gunk that can go scorched earth on the invaders if need be. Seriously, go look up mast cells and marvel at the variety of stuff they can do. It's incredible. If you have hayfever then you probably don't have an all too-loving relationship with them. TL;DR - We have evidence of immunity developing post-infection. The question is just how much and for how long. The "how much" is looking very good. The "how long" we'll have to wait and see about. The virus may have some ability to lurk around (like herpes) and cause trouble, and as much as that sucks it's far preferable to us not having any ability to develop immunity.
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Apr 30, 2020 19:46
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FreelanceSocialist posted:What. The. gently caress. it's called strong leadership
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Apr 30, 2020 19:48
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I was astonished at how easy it was for me to get a test in DC after showing some pretty marginal symptoms (just the COVID toes thing that has been in the news). I scheduled a telemedicine visit at 12:30 for 2:30 and by 3:45 we were through a drive-thru testing center. Fingers crossed on the results. I hope this doesn't come off wrong, but this has actually made me super upset. It just drives home how privileged my family is fortunate to be in terms of healthcare coverage and access. It's infuriating that this kind of thing is completely effortless if you're lucky enough to be covered/pay a premium and a huge struggle if you're not.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:02
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Background: Wicked Local is where small weekly town newspapers retreated to when local newspapers fell apart. To me they slant kinda rightward but nothing like to overt. This week they decided to do a series called #ConfabNE. What is this you may ask... Asking the public whether we need to reopen the economy. The answers are mostly no and why the gently caress are you asking? This question pissed me off though, why ask something like this? Why ask the common man if they feel like the economy should reopen during a loving pandemic? Why both sides this?!
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Apr 30, 2020 20:06
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I imagine it'll be super positive at first then eventually the inevitable 1 in 100,000 or 1 in a million side effects will come out, that will become the narrative on what the vaccine does, then the whole thing will break down into squabbling based on whatever the origin of the vaccine was, then it'll factionalize to taking it or not based on if the origin was of the correct political alignment to the individual. Imagine if you were so dumb you opted to take anywhere between a 1 in 1000 to 1 in 30 shot of dying from the disease (depending on age and risk factors), to avoid a 1 in 100,000 chance of adverse effects from the vaccine.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:14
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NYC is going to start closing it’s subways between 1 and 5 AM every night for cleaning which I can’t see not loving over a huge amount of poor commuters who work nights even if it’s necessary.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:14
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:NYC is going to start closing it’s subways between 1 and 5 AM every night for cleaning which I can’t see not loving over a huge amount of poor commuters who work nights even if it’s necessary. huh, earlier in the thread was how amazed the US guys were at doctor house calls, well for me a tube or public transport system the runs after midnight is its own kind of wow.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:23
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PT6A posted:Imagine if you were so dumb you opted to take anywhere between a 1 in 1000 to 1 in 30 shot of dying from the disease (depending on age and risk factors), to avoid a 1 in 100,000 chance of adverse effects from the vaccine. That's an unfair comparison - that assumes you have a 100% chance of getting it over your lifetime. The vaccine is still the better bet but the numbers are off.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:23
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Ika posted:That's an unfair comparison - that assumes you have a 100% chance of getting it over your lifetime. The vaccine is still the better bet but the numbers are off. Looking at how infectious this disease is, if you want to resume normal life where you leave the house again from time to time, you probably do have about 100% chance of getting the disease eventually in the absence of a vaccine or reasonable herd immunity provided by other people getting the vaccine.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:26
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Well NASCAR is coming back.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:33
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Mooseontheloose posted:Background: Wicked Local is where small weekly town newspapers retreated to when local newspapers fell apart. To me they slant kinda rightward but nothing like to overt. This week they decided to do a series called #ConfabNE. What is this you may ask... The purpose of most mass media, at least in the modern age, is not to inform the public, but to shape opinion. Their jobs are to steer public opinion towards the stated goals of the owners of the media, who are primarily capitalists and/or right wing ideologues. And while there are outliers, they are just that, outliers. Discourse in the media by talking heads, writers, etc strike me as having a kind of showmanship to it akin to professional wrestling. People swore up and down it was real for years beyond all sense and reason. That wrestling was real when others said it was fake. And one day back in the...I want to say late nineties or early two-thousands, you had arch enemies hug on stage, breaking what was internally called "kayfabe", or the portrayal within the industry that the events are real, that they are not staged or crafted work. There there is no storyline. That all behavior is real and true. And in an instant, they destroyed kayfabe. They destroyed that seeming of being real. Now wrestling being "fake" in terms of story doesn't mean that there's not real craft, talent and heart going into each show. There's tons of work that goes into it. They're just not doing the thing people imagined them to be doing. It wasn't the real lives of wrestlers, but an elaborate carnie act that required real physical and acting skill while staying true to the character at basically all times. And it had to be done every week with a constantly emerging story-line in real time. That's hard and most media doesn't do that with the exception I'd say, of the news media, which I fully treat as just as "fake" as wrestling, a carnie act. This is a good, not perfect, but good analogy for the news media. They're not there to inform us of the truth. Not unless the truth suits their purposes. Their purpose is to shape opinion to cause people around the world to conform to a range of acceptable thought and suppress thought which they feel is unacceptable. Trump calls it "Fake News", but it was never fake, just not doing the thing we all think it's doing. Even if a story is true, completely and totally, propaganda done well is about selectively highlighting certain truths to push a narrative while ignoring other truths. And this can be done to the good of all, and we call that journalism, which is good. But the very ideas popularized by the media now is that they need to be "balanced" and "fair". That they need to accommodate the widest audience possible and that means platforming people who are deeply toxic, thus legitimizing their views because some viewers have those views and the media wants their eyes to sell poo poo to them. And then, under faux reasonability, they find truth "somewhere in the middle", as if compromise is how you arrive at truth when that is on its face laughable. Truth is where it is and it does not conform to any kind of political ideology. Truth is not inherently fair and balanced. In fact it is often incredibly unfair and imbalanced. I open my window and extend my hand. News flash, it's raining. But wait! Let's get some experts on who have something to say about that. They say it's bright and shiny outside. But my hand, it's drenched in rain. I can even show the droplets. We go back and forth while a liar tells me that my hand isn't wet and is allowed to try and gaslight me and everyone else listening, which deeply abusive if you've ever been in one of those relationships before. I know that it is raining and they are saying it is not. Then, gravely, as if trying to arbitrate, the fair and balanced talking head asks if it might only be drizzling, pleasing exactly no one, but gets to act as final arbiter of truth when my hand, is in fact, drenched with rain. And they have platformed liars and capitulate to those liars on a daily basis. News media by and large does not tell the truth, or it is a very selectively crafted truth that suits their purposes. Each talking head is there not because they are experts, because you cannot really be an expert on more than a few things. Let's say two to three technical things you can know deeply if you're extremely accomplished. But you have a panel of familiar handpicked "experts" who aren't, but give off the feeling of being expert because they fit a certain look while pushing the rhetoric they were hired to push. It is a carnie act and a shameless one and people will forever claim that it is real, just like they claimed wrestling is real. Kayfabe is alive and well and it is in the corporate news sphere. Most news media today is absurd on its face if you stop and consider it. Yet we still listen even though it's a method of control, a colonizing force, to launder the abuses of the rich and powerful to become acceptable to enough people to render their abuses socially acceptable. That's why they're telling you to go back to work. They're desperately trying to craft opinion that we all should go back to work early even though that's going to kill a shitload of people. Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Apr 30, 2020 |
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Apr 30, 2020 20:34
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Well NASCAR is coming back. I mean it's not like anyone went to the races in the first place so it shouldn't be a huge difference.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:35
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Jagged Jim posted:I mean it's not like anyone went to the races in the first place so it shouldn't be a huge difference. No fans allowed anyway, so it's hard to see how it's much of a concern.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:36
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evilweasel posted:i will almost certainly get it when it's offered to me, because it will first have been offered to doctors and i will be able to infer from their reaction what the informed medical opinion on the subject is And let’s be honest, given the 80%+ positive view of just staying home, people understand that this poo poo is serious and won’t socially tolerate anyone claiming to have “reasonable concerns”. It’s one thing to tolerate anti-vax assholes because almost no one has direct experience to other polio or measles, but this is completely different.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:40
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Giodo! posted:I was astonished at how easy it was for me to get a test in DC after showing some pretty marginal symptoms (just the COVID toes thing that has been in the news). Do I even wanna know what covid toes are
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Apr 30, 2020 20:42
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460 people died in NJ over the last 24 hours. The model projected 191. That state is the new hotspot.
Shimrra Jamaane fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Apr 30, 2020 |
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Apr 30, 2020 20:43
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Giodo! posted:I was astonished at how easy it was for me to get a test in DC after showing some pretty marginal symptoms (just the COVID toes thing that has been in the news). I scheduled a telemedicine visit at 12:30 for 2:30 and by 3:45 we were through a drive-thru testing center. Fingers crossed on the results. Out of interest - did that just show up in one toe, just one foot, or all of em?
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Apr 30, 2020 20:49
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Mooseontheloose posted:Background: Wicked Local is where small weekly town newspapers retreated to when local newspapers fell apart. To me they slant kinda rightward but nothing like to overt. This week they decided to do a series called #ConfabNE. What is this you may ask... The news media's job is not to accurately or responsibly report the news. News media's job is to make money. This goes for any other business under a capitalist system. A grocery store is not meant to provide you with groceries, it is mean to make money via making groceries available to the public for a price. Etc etc. News media thus tries to package and deliver news in a way that will get the most viewers or clicks. If people were demanding factual, accurate, responsibly reported news, that's what we'd be getting. But the vast majority of this country don't want that - they want news that confirms their preexisting biases. Which is how you get to a point where Fox News is a rightwing propaganda machine that blatantly lies about very provable facts, MSNBC was able to ignore the Tara Reid allegations vs Biden for months when every other major news firm acknowledged them, and the NYT's is at least initially both-sides'ing drinking bleach to cure COVID-19. For your specific example, they almost certainly both-sides'd reopening because they figured that would get the largest amount of people to buy the paper.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:50
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Solkanar512 posted:And let’s be honest, given the 80%+ positive view of just staying home, people understand that this poo poo is serious and won’t socially tolerate anyone claiming to have “reasonable concerns”. It’s one thing to tolerate anti-vax assholes because almost no one has direct experience to other polio or measles, but this is completely different. Also, a lot of anti-vaxxers are going to change their tune when they're not allowed in their favorite bar or restaurant and not invited to anyone's post-quarantine party because they don't have proof of vaccination. They think they're socially ostracized now...
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Apr 30, 2020 21:04
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I was *just* reading about this guy. He sourced a ton of tests from S. Korea through negotiations by his wife who is Korean. They flew them in on otherwise idling Korea Air planes, he personally met the planes at the airport, and escorted them to their "secret" warehouse. All to keep the US Federal Gov't from intercepting the shipments. He's an R governor, has made no bones about how much contempt he holds trump in, and has intimated (maybe jokingly) he'll be voting D in the presidential election. Apparently he wrote-in his father for president in the last one. He also has really high approval ratings from both republicans and democrats in state.
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Apr 30, 2020 21:07
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Proteus Jones posted:I was *just* reading about this guy. He sourced a ton of tests from S. Korea through negotiations by his wife who is Korean. They flew them in on otherwise idling Korea Air planes, he personally met the planes at the airport, and escorted them to their "secret" warehouse. All to keep the US Federal Gov't from intercepting the shipments. He operates under an otherwise completely democratic government. We have absolutely no view to how he would govern otherwise. Typically republicans and democrats in split governments have high approvals, because those populations at that time value those splits. You tend to see it in the New England and North/East generally. For now he's harmless and just making a name for himself as a never Trumper, but come a different set of circumstances?
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Apr 30, 2020 21:09
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Shammypants posted:He operates under an otherwise completely democratic government. We have absolutely no view to how he would govern otherwise. Typically republicans and democrats in split governments have high approvals, because those populations at that time value those splits. You tend to see it in the New England and North/East generally. For now he's harmless and just making a name for himself as a never Trumper, but come a different set of circumstances? Yeah, but that's a rabbit hole of madness. You can only judge someone on their actions and statements, not on what they *might* do or say. I mean, I find most of our politicians in this country repulsive oxygen wasters, but from what I've read so far I can't fault his response to the pandemic (especially hiding resources from Trump and his son in law). Of course, I'm also not an MD resident, so there may be a whole lot of stuff I'm unaware of with this guy too.
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Apr 30, 2020 21:15
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PT6A posted:Imagine if you were so dumb you opted to take anywhere between a 1 in 1000 to 1 in 30 shot of dying from the disease (depending on age and risk factors), to avoid a 1 in 100,000 chance of adverse effects from the vaccine. well there's also the chance of never getting the disease, not everyone is going to get it a 1 in 100,000 chance of adverse effects is actually pretty high when you're giving it to everyone, hopefully the vaccine will be less dangerous than that
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Apr 30, 2020 21:19
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I wonder what percentage of the population is actually going to take a vaccine. I wonder if it's even 25%. I dunno whether this is me being way too paranoid or not, but I'm gonna be pretty wary of anything that gets fasttracked through Trump's FDA for this poo poo. I figure I can keep doing what I'm doing for at least a few months past when it's widely available just in case there are some serious side effects that didn't make it into the reports. Edit: Not like 1 in 100,000 issues or whatever, but serious, widespread issues. Kreeblah fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Apr 30, 2020 |
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Apr 30, 2020 21:20
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cr0y posted:Do I even wanna know what covid toes are There are reports of people with mild or asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 developing rashes on their toes that look similar to frostbite. Edit: There are also increasing reports of COVID causing kidney damage. grack fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Apr 30, 2020 |
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Apr 30, 2020 21:26
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Kreeblah posted:I dunno whether this is me being way too paranoid or not, but I'm gonna be pretty wary of anything that gets fasttracked through Trump's FDA for this poo poo. I figure I can keep doing what I'm doing for at least a few months past when it's widely available just in case there are some serious side effects that didn't make it into the reports. the study data will be public. you'll be able to read what other peoples' take on if the data is good enough is.
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Apr 30, 2020 21:29
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I feel like I’ve come around on the idea of reopening parks, beaches, and places like golf courses. Not that I think it’s a good idea in a vacuum because I don’t think it is but I feel we’re reaching the point across the country where a bunch of states need to release some of the pent up pressure that people are feeling with the lockdown. Polling is still decidedly on the side of the shutdowns but to be proactive I think we need to give a little, even if it makes the situation somewhat worse, to be able to hold firm on the larger scale idea of keeping people home for at least another month.
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Apr 30, 2020 21:42
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I feel like I’ve come around on the idea of reopening parks, beaches, and places like golf courses. Not that I think it’s a good idea in a vacuum because I don’t think it is but I feel we’re reaching the point across the country where a bunch of states need to release some of the pent up pressure that people are feeling with the lockdown. Polling is still decidedly on the side of the shutdowns but to be proactive I think we need to give a little, even if it makes the situation somewhat worse, to be able to hold firm on the larger scale idea of keeping people home for at least another month. NYC never even closed its larger parks, like Central Park. Of course it's absolutely packed on nice days but it definitely helps with sanity
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Apr 30, 2020 21:46
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goethe.cx posted:NYC never even closed its larger parks, like Central Park. Of course it's absolutely packed on nice days but it definitely helps with sanity California has closed most stuff though. They might need to ease up.
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Apr 30, 2020 21:48
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evilweasel posted:does that avoid the potential problems where a vaccine causes an overactive immune response where the body basically starts attacking itself? Im not an immunologist but from what I understand yes - which is why it's already approved for a very large scale clinical trial in the UK instead of a smaller one. Because the "sheath" that the vaccine uses is exactly the same and the payload itself is all thats different, a lot of the safety issues and testing is taken care of. This is all from an article I read about this vaccine from the Oxford group, so, I could be wrong, but I think that's why its approved for such a large clinical trial already.
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Apr 30, 2020 22:05
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goethe.cx posted:Also, a lot of anti-vaxxers are going to change their tune when they're not allowed in their favorite bar or restaurant and not invited to anyone's post-quarantine party because they don't have proof of vaccination. They think they're socially ostracized now... One more point - I think you might even see society classify refusing to vaccinate your kids without a medical reason as child abuse.
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Apr 30, 2020 22:22
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