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Panfilo
Aug 27, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 12 days!
Did armed protestors get the Governor of Michigan to change her policy?

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Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Panfilo posted:

Did armed protestors get the Governor of Michigan to change her policy?

No

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Grondoth posted:

I mean, are the protests really successful if conservative states open up early like they always wanted to? Astroturfing the anti-vaxxers to come out as cover for you to be "forced" to open up is kind of a net zero sum, nothing actually happens, no one actually moves. People die regardless.

They're not protesting in conservative states. For some strange reason the only states with protests have Democratic governors.

Medullah
Aug 14, 2003

FEAR MY SHARK ROCKET IT REALLY SUCKS AND BLOWS
She's lowering restrictions on a bunch of things which was always her plan but I'm sure the protesters will claim it was their influence.

And in 3 months when we're under control they'll shout that "See, the restrictions weren't even needed!"

Grondoth
Feb 18, 2011

Deteriorata posted:

They're not protesting in conservative states. For some strange reason the only states with protests have Democratic governors.

Are those states actually opening up? I know in NY the answer has been "gently caress you no," as well as in Michigan and Hawaii, and that the states opening up are conservative ones like Texas and Georgia.

Dick Trauma
Nov 30, 2007

God damn it, you've got to be kind.
I am depressed at the thought that no matter what I do to protect myself from this disease it will ultimately be worthless because so many people are trying to spread it, egged on by the President, his party, and his mouthpieces.

Panfilo
Aug 27, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 12 days!
Seems to me then the whole protesting while armed gimmick is a pointless exercise. I mean if they can't intimidate the governor into giving into their demands when they pretty much have her at gunpoint, what's the point?

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Grondoth posted:

Are those states actually opening up? I know in NY the answer has been "gently caress you no," as well as in Michigan and Hawaii, and that the states opening up are conservative ones like Texas and Georgia.

The protests are not about actually opening up the state. Their purpose is to undermine the authority of the Democratic governor so as to improve the chances of the Republican candidate winning the next election.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Deteriorata posted:

The protests are not about actually opening up the state. Their purpose is to undermine the authority of the Democratic governor so as to improve the chances of the Republican candidate winning the next election.

well they seems to have severely misjudged poo poo this time.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Dapper_Swindler posted:

well they seems to have severely misjudged poo poo this time.

Yeah, whether or not they accomplish their goal is a separate matter. They are astroturfed electoral gimmicks nonetheless.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Deteriorata posted:

The protests are not about actually opening up the state. Their purpose is to undermine the authority of the Democratic governor so as to improve the chances of the Republican candidate winning the next election.

And that’s backfiring on them for this November.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Deteriorata posted:

Yeah, whether or not they accomplish their goal is a separate matter. They are astroturfed electoral gimmicks nonetheless.

i mean i think its gonna backfire on them hard. i dont see anyone on my boomer filled facebook defending them.

LloydDobler
Oct 15, 2005

You shared it with a dick.


Someone said it upthread, but I'll repeat it. This seriously pisses me off. These are nothing but cheerleaders for the military and should be the first thing cut in a crisis. Wikipedia says the annual budget for the blue angels is $37 million a year. Where are all the right wing assholes saying HOW ARE WE GOING TO PAY FOR IT? Park the god drat planes.

Oh right, they don't actually care about spending money, they only care about making sure that poor people don't get any.

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Solkanar512 posted:

Man, I am so tired of hearing this complaint, as though every other historical emergency has had perfect record keeping. This is the real world, it doesn’t exist. Data is always dirty and hard to collect and likely incomplete for a number of reasons. There are ways to look and make educated guesses and estimates that are good enough to produce useful results.

How are the results useful if the underlying data is wrong? I get where you're coming from, but people are treating these models as if they're infallible when the fact is they're probably hurting more than they're helping.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Shooting Blanks posted:

How are the results useful if the underlying data is wrong? I get where you're coming from, but people are treating these models as if they're infallible when the fact is they're probably hurting more than they're helping.

You can still get useful results if you can make good estimates of your missing data and what it probably looks like.

It's a model, not a prophecy. It does what it does. People treating it or any other as infallible are foolish.

The fact that the Trumpists are using it to make policy is irrelevant. If the IHME model didn't exist, they'd seize on something else equally bad or have the Cato or Hoover Institute make one up for them that told them what they wanted to hear. Propagandists gonna propaganda.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

LloydDobler posted:

Someone said it upthread, but I'll repeat it. This seriously pisses me off. These are nothing but cheerleaders for the military and should be the first thing cut in a crisis. Wikipedia says the annual budget for the blue angels is $37 million a year. Where are all the right wing assholes saying HOW ARE WE GOING TO PAY FOR IT? Park the god drat planes.

Oh right, they don't actually care about spending money, they only care about making sure that poor people don't get any.

Unfortunately in this case, the money had already been spent/allocated before this crisis. It's still wasteful as gently caress and the congregations it causes/caused demonstrably make things worse.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
Pick a number, any number
Pillbug

cr0y posted:

What is the loving point of taxing the $600

Why wouldn't it be?

If you were making min wage in WA that's 480 a week (about 25k/yr), which absolutely was getting taxed. If you're on unemployment right now you're making at minimum half that + 600, so 840/wk, (about 44k/yr).

If you wanna argue the max income before taxes kick in should be higher that's one thing in general sure but I mean it feels like I'd come across as really ungrateful to whine about being taxed when I'm bringing in twice what "necessary retail employees" make while sitting on my butt playing video games.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Grondoth posted:

Are those states actually opening up? I know in NY the answer has been "gently caress you no," as well as in Michigan and Hawaii, and that the states opening up are conservative ones like Texas and Georgia.

It doesn't really matter. If blue states open, then they win. If blue states stay closed, then their exclusive control of the media allows them to control the narrative and they convince X% of the country that the Democrats are petty tyrants, so they still win.

Lambert
Apr 15, 2018

by Fluffdaddy
Fallen Rib

ArbitraryC posted:

Why wouldn't it be?

If you were making min wage in WA that's 480 a week (about 25k/yr), which absolutely was getting taxed. If you're on unemployment right now you're making at minimum half that + 600, so 840/wk, (about 44k/yr).

If you wanna argue the max income before taxes kick in should be higher that's one thing in general sure but I mean it feels like I'd come across as really ungrateful to whine about being taxed when I'm bringing in twice what "necessary retail employees" make while sitting on my butt playing video games.

Galaxy brain

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

heard some interviews on the radio today with representatives of America's meat industry. They said almost 1/3 of America's slaughterhouse capacity was unused because of coronavirus. The result will be that farmers are going to run out of room for hogs and other animals that can't be slaughtered, and will have to euthanize thousands of animals unsold. The frickin lobbyist for the hog farmers was saying consumers will likely face shortages or price increases. Jesus christ this thing is really hitting every industry.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Shooting Blanks posted:

How are the results useful if the underlying data is wrong? I get where you're coming from, but people are treating these models as if they're infallible when the fact is they're probably hurting more than they're helping.
You make estimates about the underlying reliability of the data. You make various other estimates about other factors influencing the behavior of the model. Then you run the model multiple times, varying all the uncertain parameters of the model. You then look at the spread of results following from these numerous runs of the model. Using those results, you can then make a somewhat accurate estimate of the average results and also the uncertainty of the result.

There is ONE model (IHME) that is being treated as infallible by a segment of the media and politics. This model does not use any of the normal approaches used by epidemiologists. It is instead a relatively simple curve fitting approach. However, this model has extremely long range predictions, very low error bars, and a very low number of expected total deaths.

Somebody already posted the link to an article on Vox about it above:

"This coronavirus model keeps being wrong. Why are we still listening to it? posted:

...
One analysis of the IHME model found that its next-day death predictions for each state were outside its 95 percent confidence interval 70 percent of the time — meaning the actual death numbers fell outside the range it projected 70 percent of the time. That’s not great!
...
“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to making projections about Covid-19, Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told reporters.
...
The IHME model is based “on a statistical model with no epidemiologic basis,” the Annals of Internal Medicine critique argues.
...
In the report explaining the model, the researchers write that they look at four measures: “School closures, non-essential business closures including bars and restaurants, stay-at-home recommendations, and travel restrictions including public transport closures. Days with 1 measure were counted as 0.67 equivalents, days with 2 measures as 0.334 equivalents and with 3 or 4 measures as 0.”

In other words, the model has a built-in assumption that once three of those measures have been put into place, cases will rapidly fall to zero. No new data can change that assumption, which is why the model continues to project zero deaths by mid-May in any area that hasn’t lifted social distancing restrictions, even though case numbers have only plateaued rather than declined in many areas.
...
Alex Merz, a microbiologist at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, has written that “@IHME_UW’s overly optimistic modeling projections contributed to this debacle” of the coronavirus’s rapid spread in the US, and condemned their “amazing shrinking error band that, preposterously, constricts to zero uncertainty in mid-June. That is not only bad science communication — it is bad science.”
...

In that article are links to some other models:
https://reichlab.io/covid19-forecast-hub/
https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/
From the Texas model:


Note the rapidly rising uncertainty at the end. And also note that is only predicts four weeks into the future. After that everything is simply too uncertain to be useful.
This one also seems interesting:
https://covid19-projections.com/

How much more comfortable is a model that gives you a 100% certainty that everything will be done by the end of May.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 00:50 on May 3, 2020

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Squalid posted:

heard some interviews on the radio today with representatives of America's meat industry. They said almost 1/3 of America's slaughterhouse capacity was unused because of coronavirus. The result will be that farmers are going to run out of room for hogs and other animals that can't be slaughtered, and will have to euthanize thousands of animals unsold. The frickin lobbyist for the hog farmers was saying consumers will likely face shortages or price increases. Jesus christ this thing is really hitting every industry.

The lobbyist for hog farmers is going to tell you that we will run out of food unless you pay them lots of money literally no matter what.

Tenasscity
Jan 1, 2010




This might be the wrong place to ask this and if so, I apologize. Do you know if the new unemployment rules apply if you're under employed? I'm working 48 hours a week but only pulling in about $300 due to contract bullshittery.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Tenasscity posted:

This might be the wrong place to ask this and if so, I apologize. Do you know if the new unemployment rules apply if you're under employed? I'm working 48 hours a week but only pulling in about $300 due to contract bullshittery.

Doesn't sound like it, which is honestly a big loophole in the reopen governors' plan to force everyone to work so to not payout unemployment.

ArbitraryC
Jan 28, 2009
Pick a number, any number
Pillbug

Squalid posted:

heard some interviews on the radio today with representatives of America's meat industry. They said almost 1/3 of America's slaughterhouse capacity was unused because of coronavirus. The result will be that farmers are going to run out of room for hogs and other animals that can't be slaughtered, and will have to euthanize thousands of animals unsold. The frickin lobbyist for the hog farmers was saying consumers will likely face shortages or price increases. Jesus christ this thing is really hitting every industry.

I realize this is an overly simplistic stemlord level of hottake but couldn't we just not kill the animal for a bit? I can understand running into issues with already slaughtered animals/the meat getting hung up and going bad somewhere in the supply chain cause it spoils easily but a living cow isn't really going to go bad that quick. Do they just not have room for them because of the other animals they're raising?

sheri
Dec 30, 2002

For pigs once they get too big they don't fit through the processing equipment.

Also I'm sure they have littler pigs that need to move to bigger pigs space, etc.

Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost
Also, I’m not going to give a single gently caress as to what a pork lobbyist has to say about the food supply chain and I don’t think anyone else should either.

If they really wanted that meat to go through, they would sell larger/commercial cuts and tell Americans to butcher down themselves. This is nothing more than a play for money and exemptions from safety regulations.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

ArbitraryC posted:

I realize this is an overly simplistic stemlord level of hottake but couldn't we just not kill the animal for a bit? I can understand running into issues with already slaughtered animals/the meat getting hung up and going bad somewhere in the supply chain cause it spoils easily but a living cow isn't really going to go bad that quick. Do they just not have room for them because of the other animals they're raising?

What does that get you? You still have the exact same problem just pushed back a step. You hold onto this years pigs and then you can't plant next years pigs because these old pigs are in the spot they are supposed to go and you just end up with the same thing but delayed a season.

Cabbages and VHS
Aug 25, 2004

Listen, I've been around a bit, you know, and I thought I'd seen some creepy things go on in the movie business, but I really have to say this is the most disgusting thing that's ever happened to me.

ArbitraryC posted:

I realize this is an overly simplistic stemlord level of hottake but couldn't we just not kill the animal for a bit? I can understand running into issues with already slaughtered animals/the meat getting hung up and going bad somewhere in the supply chain cause it spoils easily but a living cow isn't really going to go bad that quick. Do they just not have room for them because of the other animals they're raising?

combination of that plus as sheri mentioned -- we have bioengineered many meat animals to do horrific things if not killed on time

my cousin's wife raised donated meat turkey chicks for years; the end result were horrific Dr. Moreau things that couldn't really move or breathe well under their own power

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Yeah, it’s more or less an ecosystem built around a large chunk of the population being culled by humans every year. If that step is taken out the whole thing is disrupted. You can’t keep them for next year and you can’t just let them go so there’s nothing to do but slaughter them and dispose of the carcasses because butchery isn’t available.

Smeef
Aug 15, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!



Pillbug

Cabbages and Kings posted:

my cousin's wife raised donated meat turkey chicks for years; the end result were horrific Dr. Moreau things that couldn't really move or breathe well under their own power

Are you sure they were turkeys and not Trump rally attendees?

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Solkanar512 posted:

Also, I’m not going to give a single gently caress as to what a pork lobbyist has to say about the food supply chain and I don’t think anyone else should either.

If they really wanted that meat to go through, they would sell larger/commercial cuts and tell Americans to butcher down themselves. This is nothing more than a play for money and exemptions from safety regulations.

That's what a meat producer did near my parents in South Carolina. Plucked and cleaned chickens (not divided into cuts), roughly 40lbs for $20. Between that and venison they now have enough meat in the chest freezer to last nearly a year.

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

Solkanar512 posted:

Also, I’m not going to give a single gently caress as to what a pork lobbyist has to say about the food supply chain and I don’t think anyone else should either.

If they really wanted that meat to go through, they would sell larger/commercial cuts and tell Americans to butcher down themselves. This is nothing more than a play for money and exemptions from safety regulations.

the average person does not have the loving capacity to accept and butcher a half cow or pig. what are you talking about?

Huggybear
Jun 17, 2005

I got the jimjams

Dick Trauma posted:

I am depressed at the thought that no matter what I do to protect myself from this disease it will ultimately be worthless because so many people are trying to spread it, egged on by the President, his party, and his mouthpieces.

And enabled by the police and justice system who passively observe even though they are technically an implementation of the government

so many people who theoretically don't protest also just don't give a gently caress. I have to walk an extra half hour to get groceries elsewhere because my usual store across the street is always teeming with older people/boomers who don't try to honor any of the new distancing etiquette, and if you speak up they get extremely vicious. They even have their own designated time to shop.

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.

Seven Hundred Bee posted:

the average person does not have the loving capacity to accept and butcher a half cow or pig. what are you talking about?


You just need like willpower and some knives.

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

yea those dumb spoiled americans!! not even owning a walk in freezer or a band saw.

can this thread please avoid the painful aggressive hot takes about how common and reasonable things are Actually Bad because America is Bad. we already had a "I don't understand the purpose of paper towels" discussion.

Outpost22
Oct 11, 2012

RIP Screamy You were too good for this world.
Why do just go vegetarian for a while?

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Water those almonds with pigs blood then you tyrants

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

The lobbyist for hog farmers is going to tell you that we will run out of food unless you pay them lots of money literally no matter what.

also lol at the 'we will be in a shortage of meat' 'also there will be too much meat, euthanize all the animals'

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Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Solkanar512 posted:

Also, I’m not going to give a single gently caress as to what a pork lobbyist has to say about the food supply chain and I don’t think anyone else should either.

If they really wanted that meat to go through, they would sell larger/commercial cuts and tell Americans to butcher down themselves. This is nothing more than a play for money and exemptions from safety regulations.

i buy meat primals and take them apart myself and what on earth are you talking about. Still need slaughter houses to break down carcases.

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