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Sky Shadowing posted:The Tesla is irrelevant, mostly; the rocket launch was going off anyways, and something needed to be loaded on to serve as ballast. Musk just chose to have fun with it, and sent a car whereas most of the time people send stuff like concrete. And even though Musk is looking more like a shithead nowadays, what he's doing with SpaceX is a very good thing in general. Besides, it went into a solar orbit, so it's not anywhere close to earth anymore. oh well all right then well there ya go here's a rich guy doing something weird and crazy with his money
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May 4, 2020 20:26
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May 4, 2020 20:45
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Ringo Star Get posted:I am jealous, in a way. We are still currently working from home during the shelter order, but our boss just put out an email singing the praises of a laid-off employee, on unemployment (possibly), going to two of our closed locations to "clean" and "check in on things". Called him a "company man" and was super passive-aggressive to all of us in the email, despite a majority of us directly explaining why we can't risk going out and getting sick. When poo poo like this happens I always wonder why there isn't complete employee insurrection where you all realize that you're the ones who do all the work, so why not just form your own company and do exactly what you've been doing but without the dumbshit owner. You could even take all his clients, who would come willingly because he wouldn't have anyone left to work for him.
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May 4, 2020 20:45
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-Blackadder- posted:When poo poo like this happens I always wonder why there isn't complete employee insurrection where you all realize that you're the ones who do all the work, so why not just form your own company and do exactly what you've been doing but without the dumbshit owner. You could even take all his clients, who would come willingly because he wouldn't have anyone left to work for him. Because capital actually is unfortunately necessary in most industries. At minimum someone has to front the initial capital for a venture. The internet may yet fix this, we will see.
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May 4, 2020 20:52
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You will also have to find a way to fend off the incoming lawsuit for IP theft, no matter how baseless it may be.
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May 4, 2020 20:53
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-Blackadder- posted:When poo poo like this happens I always wonder why there isn't complete employee insurrection where you all realize that you're the ones who do all the work, so why not just form your own company and do exactly what you've been doing but without the dumbshit owner. You could even take all his clients, who would come willingly because he wouldn't have anyone left to work for him. most mid-size companies have significant overhead and startup expenses that require more money than people are going to have on hand or have access to through loans. Ironically you do see this a ton where like the 3-5 competent employees will often leave and start their own competing business, but whole mid-size businesses (like 20-100 employees) just have too many expenses and require too much startup cash, plus if they're badly run, you wouldn't want to bring over all the dead weight relatives that the owner hired, but if you don't you'd lose all the employees who are friends with them or know that they're going to get a good deal if they stick around.
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May 4, 2020 20:56
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haveblue posted:You will also have to find a way to fend off the incoming lawsuit for IP theft, no matter how baseless it may be. Not to mention a lot of companies these days have these absurd non-compete clauses you sign as part of your pile of onboarding paperwork and I can't think of a clearer example of what it prohibits than breaking off and taking the clients with you. Dead before you even started. You guys I'm starting to think the ownership class doesn't give a poo poo about the rest of us.
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May 4, 2020 20:57
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https://twitter.com/HeidiNBC/status/1257363515792293888?s=20
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May 4, 2020 20:59
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So add this to the one in Oklahoma.
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May 4, 2020 20:59
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poo poo just got real.
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May 4, 2020 21:02
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Was that the model that had some ridiculous timeline to 0 deaths daily? Like weeks?
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May 4, 2020 21:09
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cage-free egghead posted:Was that the model that had some ridiculous timeline to 0 deaths daily? Like weeks? Yes. The only more optimistic model was the one Trump ordered his cronies to fabricate to make him feel better.
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May 4, 2020 21:11
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VitalSigns posted:oh well all right then I guess he gets some credit for Space-X accomplishments, if only because he headed the company. Landing spent rockets simultaneously like a 1950's sci-fi movie is legitimately one of the coolest things I've ever seen. In everything else he's an insufferable piece of poo poo.
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May 4, 2020 21:20
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:poo poo just got real. mission accomplished
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May 4, 2020 21:21
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cage-free egghead posted:Was that the model that had some ridiculous timeline to 0 deaths daily? Like weeks? And this model had to revise just days ago because we were blowing past its initial estimate we are now blowing past the first revision (75k) this week 135k is something we'll hit in June, most likely Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah. We're basically on track to over a million dead at this point, with recurring outbreaks until we get a vaccine. Meanwhile, if we're truly going for ~herd immunity~ strategies I don't understand how we stop at only a million deaths. Right now the virus has a US fatality rate of about 5% - 1.2 million infections vs. ~69-70k deaths as of today. Presuming that stays constant -- and that decreases in medical faculties don't occur due to massive increases in need of care and somehow those without care don't suffer higher rates of fatality -- then most of the U.S. population getting infected, around 300 million or so, results in fifteen million dead by the end. Or basically, 5m dead per 100m infected. Without massive social distancing and lifestyle intervention and survival support until a vaccine can be developed, I don't understand why we're speaking of "only" a million dead. We're on track to suffer numbers of dead equal to Soviet military losses in all of World War Two. And that's not even fear mongering, that's extremely simple extrapolation from what's going on right this second and being optimistic about it.
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May 4, 2020 21:28
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-Blackadder- posted:When poo poo like this happens I always wonder why there isn't complete employee insurrection where you all realize that you're the ones who do all the work, so why not just form your own company and do exactly what you've been doing but without the dumbshit owner. You could even take all his clients, who would come willingly because he wouldn't have anyone left to work for him. I was actually part of a coup like this. You know what happened? We ended up reforming into something nearly identical just with different people at the top. And then we learned that just because you want to run a company doesn't mean you're capable of running one. So yeah, that company didn't last very long.
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May 4, 2020 21:30
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:poo poo just got real. It was always going to be like this. America has a federal system and governors have a lot of power. If there was strong, effective leadership from the executive branch we could have avoided the worst of this, but we don't have that and may never have it again. This means that the governors are left to their own devices and they're running extreme deficits and facing extreme pressure from donors and voters and activist during an election year. I'd hoped that we'd have a lull in summer, but we're just going to have to have a shitload of people die. From the new data, cloth masks worn by everyone would get the rate of infection to manageable levels and you could go outside and the number of infections would fall over time. Americans don't want to do that and so you're going to have hundreds of thousands of people die over the summer. Not just the official numbers, but unofficially we're way past 100k and it's likely we won't know how many people died when until months from now. So we'll sustain high infection rates until fall and as things cool down into winter, death rates are going to explode where it wasn't managed and the states that did manage well will be infected by other states unless they institute travel bans. The number of dead will balloon if we relax standards even for a week or two because covid is incredibly contagious. It doubles in size every 2.5 days if no precautions are taken. And while people have changed their behavior, the amount of sick who already exist are large and the number will balloon and a shitload of people will die. 130k dead imagines that we stop covid and in some states it flat out won't happen. I'd say in some of states, mostly Southern, there will be no leveling off for at least a few more weeks, maybe a month. Maybe never. And you could have scenarios where the state just stays open and it's accepted that people die. Where the curve doesn't level off until you have actual herd immunity. I don't think it'll get that far though, but that will be the plan. What you'll actually have will be mass graves and that's going to be jarring once that hits the news and they run out of body bags and wooden coffins and just start rolling dead people into trenches. And the people filling those miserable, dishonored graves will be the have nots. Since it's only the poor, minorities, homeless, prisoners, sex workers, etc that are dying, the haves will keep on doing what they do. But I think what will actually make them take notice will be when local industry shuts down because it's just too dangerous. When the poor simply have had enough. When their jobs are killing their extended families. And when it happens enough that it creates heartache for everyone, that heartache turns to rage, turns to action, turns to labor organizing. Because it's literally organize or die. Not for everyone, because some businesses aren't as vulnerable and some are taking precautions, but these careless business owners are going to create seriously bitter feelings and those feelings will sour. Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 21:35 on May 4, 2020 |
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May 4, 2020 21:31
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SpaceDrake posted:And this model had to revise just days ago because we were blowing past its initial estimate I thought we were supposed to be massively under-testing and that the reported infections were a small fraction of the actual total infections? Colorado has been ramping up their testing and saying that the actual infection number is likely 10x greater than what we've seen through tests. Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 21:34 on May 4, 2020 |
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May 4, 2020 21:31
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SpaceDrake posted:Right now the virus has a US fatality rate of about 5% - 1.2 million infections vs. ~69-70k deaths as of today. It's 5% because we're badly undertesting and strongly biased towards people who already have it (symptomatic or high risk). Other countries with good responses aren't seeing numbers that high.
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May 4, 2020 21:35
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https://wamu.org/story/20/05/01/how-does-transportation-and-commuting-change-in-a-post-coronavirus-world-we-asked-experts/ No way public transit returns to "normal" any time soon.
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May 4, 2020 21:38
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gently caress the beach, I'm born and raised in Cali and I say gently caress the beach!! It's boring, drying off in the sun sucks, you step on poo poo that hurts you, if it's my birthright I don't want it!
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May 4, 2020 21:38
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haveblue posted:It's 5% because we're badly undertesting and strongly biased towards people who already have it (symptomatic or high risk). Other countries with good responses aren't seeing numbers that high. yeah the actual death rate is like 2% at most
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May 4, 2020 21:39
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Nazzadan posted:gently caress the beach, I'm born and raised in Cali and I say gently caress the beach!! It's boring, drying off in the sun sucks, you step on poo poo that hurts you, if it's my birthright I don't want it! Yeah, that's the funny thing: most California beaches are awful. When I lived in SoCal, every single beach I went to was full of trash, anything from nylon bags to little bits of plastic that hurt like hell if you stepped on them.
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May 4, 2020 21:42
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Sky Shadowing posted:The Tesla is irrelevant, mostly; the rocket launch was going off anyways, and something needed to be loaded on to serve as ballast. Musk just chose to have fun with it, and sent a car whereas most of the time people send stuff like concrete. And even though Musk is looking more like a shithead nowadays, what he's doing with SpaceX is a very good thing in general. Besides, it went into a solar orbit, so it's not anywhere close to earth anymore. The car he launched was supposed to go to the original founder of Tesla but Musk hated him and that's why he launched it into space
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May 4, 2020 21:42
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haveblue posted:It's 5% because we're badly undertesting and strongly biased towards people who already have it (symptomatic or high risk). Other countries with good responses aren't seeing numbers that high. WHO's crude estimates place it around 3-4 percent, which is way, way higher than the flu, but they also have the same caveat that there isn't enough testing to determine that definitively. The reason that our numbers look as high as they do proportionally is that it's easy to test a dead body for CoV-2, so our fatality numbers are skewed at least a little to look worse than they actually are -- with full population testing it'll be lower, but how much lower isn't known just yet. So good news, not 15 million dead in the US. But ... probably still way more than we would have if we'd handle it better.
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May 4, 2020 21:42
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BardoTheConsumer posted:Because capital actually is unfortunately necessary in most industries. At minimum someone has to front the initial capital for a venture. Pretty much that - it'd be difficult to start up our own company to do the things we want, but the other side of it is that our competitors and clients in the market want businesses like ours to open. We run the risk of losing money and/or becoming so incredibly backlogged that we fall behind and performance fails. Not to mention if we lose any employees from opening up too early against their own health wishes. The challenge we are also looking at is lack of cleaning supplies - if we can't keep our locations clean and disinfected, then we're going to shut down.
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May 4, 2020 21:50
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SpaceDrake posted:And this model had to revise just days ago because we were blowing past its initial estimate Boy, yesterday was all about "let's not lose our heads here, let's keep things in perspective" and today it's back to WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE. Dude, you're playing VERY loosely with facts to the point where I'd call this corona fanfic, not factual analysis. Nazzadan posted:gently caress the beach, I'm born and raised in Cali and I say gently caress the beach!! It's boring, drying off in the sun sucks, you step on poo poo that hurts you, if it's my birthright I don't want it! Agreed.
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May 4, 2020 21:57
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This is insane, another outbreak at a food plant. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/index.html quote:More than 370 workers at a pork plant in Missouri tested positive for coronavirus. All were asymptomatic I wonder if they are all asymptomatic or just pre-symptomatic.
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May 4, 2020 22:00
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3rdEyeDeuteranopia posted:This is insane, another outbreak at a food plant. I would think that some of them have to be pre-symptomatic. There are a lot of totally asymptomatic cases but I'm skeptical that none out of over 300 people will ever show symptoms
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May 4, 2020 22:08
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Has anyone done a decent write up explaining the CDCs provisional data report and why it has a different number than their front page? Something more in-depth than this: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/cdc-death-figures
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May 4, 2020 22:08
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goethe.cx posted:I would think that some of them have to be pre-symptomatic. There are a lot of totally asymptomatic cases but I'm skeptical that none out of over 300 people will ever show symptoms I suspect many of them were "asymptomatic" in that they were obviously sick but working anyway and their bosses deliberately ignored it.
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May 4, 2020 22:10
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Religious Man posted:Has anyone done a decent write up explaining the CDCs provisional data report and why it has a different number than their front page? The entire reason is linked and bolded in the Snopes article: CDC posted:It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks. These are death certificates reported to the CDC and the reporting system lags by at least one week, usually more. Go back to the official counts from two weeks ago and we're at ~37k confirmed deaths. The CDC's official current death count is still 69k and rising. E: Anyone claiming that the CDC "revised their numbers" doesn't understand what's being reported or (more likely) is a lying sack of poo poo. Stickman fucked around with this message at 22:26 on May 4, 2020 |
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May 4, 2020 22:11
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goethe.cx posted:while I don't think that our current circumstances will last in perpetuity--we're going to have concerts, restaurants, and movie theaters again--i do think we'll see an uptick in hygienic practices. more frequent hand-washing, wearing masks while you're sick, things like that. Yeah I totally agree. I just don’t think that constitutes a major societal change. Also I live in Atlanta where people aren’t even doing the bare loving minimum so my faith in humanity is pretty much shattered at this point.
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May 4, 2020 22:15
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Aeka 2.0 posted:Riverside County in California is mandating masks. You cannot function without one, most businesses will ask you to leave without one. Why the rest of the state or even country doesn't do this I don't know. Most people are complying here. When I go to work in Orange County most people aren't wearing them or give a poo poo. Probably because trying to get people to comply with mask orders gets you shot in the loving face.
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May 4, 2020 22:18
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enraged_camel posted:Yeah, that's the funny thing: most California beaches are awful. When I lived in SoCal, every single beach I went to was full of trash, anything from nylon bags to little bits of plastic that hurt like hell if you stepped on them. Most LA beaches are very nice, even dockweiler is clean. I love the beach and grew up spending my summers there and still go regularly, it is a huge part of LA culture, but there is no reason to put peoples lives at risk over it. Right now there are bio-luminescent waves at night, have lived here my whole life and never heard of that here and still I won't go out and see it (although I am on legit quarantine because I tested positive).
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May 4, 2020 22:19
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Ershalim posted:WHO's crude estimates place it around 3-4 percent, which is way, way higher than the flu, but they also have the same caveat that there isn't enough testing to determine that definitively. The reason that our numbers look as high as they do proportionally is that it's easy to test a dead body for CoV-2, so our fatality numbers are skewed at least a little to look worse than they actually are -- with full population testing it'll be lower, but how much lower isn't known just yet. So good news, not 15 million dead in the US. But ... probably still way more than we would have if we'd handle it better. There seem to be enough randomized antibody studies now to establish that the actual fatality rate is probably around 1-2% at most, and possibly a bit lower assuming adequate capacity exists in hospitals. (It's probably a lot higher if adequate capacity doesn't exist, e.g. BoJo probably wouldn't have pulled through without oxygen.) But even if you assume that it's .5% that's still obviously really loving bad. 15 million people aren't going to die of this but if we continue to gently caress this up horribly then 1-2 million seems possible. There's probably a point where the body count would get so staggering that keeping the economy open would be viewed as insane and pointless though. If 500k americans are dead from Covid then I can't imagine any politician who wants to get reelected would oppose lockdowns. And if that many people are dead, no one is going to patronize any of the businesses that are open. Old people, though responsible for most of the problems in our country due to voting reliably republican, are not going to willingly sacrifice themselves en masse for Dow Jones, and they're not going to vote for politicians who want to sacrifice them either. That's why Trump is probably hosed and the democrats will take the senate; his approval is plummeting among his most reliable constituency. You'll probably see a similar dynamic play out in states that abandon social distancing. Politicians tend to want to get re-elected.
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May 4, 2020 22:20
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3rdEyeDeuteranopia posted:This is insane, another outbreak at a food plant. Every single time one of these 'hundreds of asymptomatic people found' it ends up being that someone suspected an outbreak in a population after a few earlier cases, ran some tests and, yup, found an early outbreak. Deteriorata posted:I suspect many of them were "asymptomatic" in that they were obviously sick but working anyway and their bosses deliberately ignored it. Any time someone runs tests on a group of hundreds of people connected to something it's because they suspect there was an outbreak/substantial exposure. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:27 on May 4, 2020 |
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May 4, 2020 22:24
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SpaceDrake posted:
I think even in this kind of projection we have to assume that the US numbers are wildly inaccurate due to lack of testing, and the actual fatality rate is something closer to .5% based on the Diamond Princess and South Korean numbers, which would mean 500k per 100 million and a total U.S. death count of around 1.5 to 2 million.
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May 4, 2020 22:26
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https://twitter.com/MichaelDoudna/status/1257049515946725376 https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1257389793123631104 https://twitter.com/MattPStout/status/1257380934787137536
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May 4, 2020 22:27
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I think even in this kind of projection we have to assume that the US numbers are wildly inaccurate due to lack of testing, and the actual fatality rate is something closer to .5% based on the Diamond Princess and South Korean numbers, which would mean 500k per 100 million and a total U.S. death count of around 1.5 to 2 million. I wouldn't use something as small or as demographically far from the mean as the diamond princess to inform an actual guess of the fatality rate. Also SK found a 2% fatality rate and there hasn't been particularly compelling evidence from anywhere else yet to put that into question. IMO more significant than even the precise fatality percent is the certainty that this kills the absolute gently caress out of old people. Like if you give this to someone over 75, there's a very significant chance you killed them. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:33 on May 4, 2020 |
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May 4, 2020 22:28
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