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Kiel and Berlin were army builds, so in theory, England and Germany are at peace. They clearly cooperated to exchange those territories. I don't understand why it happened. Germany was in a very inferior position at the start of the year, and England had successfully gotten Austria and Turkey to infight. An English solo was within reach. Anyway, it'll be very interesting to hear what the players have to say for themselves.
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May 4, 2020 08:09
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I'm wondering if all the thread talk about an English steamroll didn't spook somebody - either England getting paranoid about a triple alliance against it, or Germany switching sides for the promise of a 2-player draw.
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May 4, 2020 08:47
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Is Germany going to win now? Sort of feels like people are letting Germany get strong.
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May 4, 2020 08:51
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Lemniscate Blue posted:the promise of a 2-player draw. No such thing: there are 35 SCs total so any division of the board where only two players remain means someone will get 18 or more SCs and win outright. The smallest draw is a 3-way. Intentionally, I assume, since this fact tends to force dynamic allies. The English solo has been a stretch the entire time and has probably not been in the cards since Germany recovered in '13. England never really had superiority on either the med or northern front and needed errors, an unexpected stab and blitz, or a divided opposition. There was an opportunity to try to run in front with a small stab on Germany in '12 I think, but that was still not a very strong stab and might not have been worth it diplomatically even if they'd have been stronger locally. England could still have played more aggressively for the last few turns with little risk of ultimately being removed from the game for it, but I don't think it would've necessarily put them any closer to an outright win than scaling down so they can diplomance. Driving a wedge between Turkey and Germany is also a very strong play if they can do it, since England will be the big winner if either of those is weakened. It's easy for us in the peanut gallery to assume a spherical Austria-Hungary in a vacuum when analyzing moves -- I certainly do it -- but the game is really driven by players' perception of how other players will jump. Giving up SCs to encourage someone to jump favorably isn't necessarily a bad idea in a deadlock, and in this case Germany did not immediately build a very large number of boats so short term it seems like a correct read. If it's better long term is hard to say, certainly those are a lot of boats to lose. Germany now has a lot of options and not all of them are great for England, even with them all being army builds.
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May 4, 2020 11:26
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Austra-Hungary will never die, just the people that play them 
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May 4, 2020 11:34
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Xerophyte posted:a spherical Austria-Hungary in a vacuum As a former physics major I just wanted to say that I love this!
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May 4, 2020 14:39
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ProfFrink posted:As a former physics major I just wanted to say that I love this! He forgot frictionless though. 6.5/10, keep the effort up.
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May 4, 2020 15:04
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It's 34 supply centers total, not 35. the current standings have UK, Germany and Ottomans at a three way tie with 10 each and AH with a poor 4.
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May 4, 2020 15:21
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England accepted that it lost its chance at a solo win, so now they're angling for a three way draw. To convince Germany that they're sincere they withdrew from a lot of territory. Now they will gang up on Austria-Hungary.
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May 4, 2020 15:45
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Spring 1916  The UK and Germany do some troop shuffling. Of note, the UK convoys Germany's Belgian army to Norway. Germany A Bel - Nwy - via convoy A Ber - Sil F Den - Kie A Kie - Mun A Mos - Sev A Mun - Boh F Nwy - Nrg F Ska - Den   Further south, the lines hold in Italy, but Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire do some tradesies for provinces. It remains to be seen if they switch hands by the end of fall... Austria-Hungary A Bud S Tri - Ser A Tri - Ser A Ukr - Rum (failed) A Ven S Tri (inconsistent order) United Kingdom A Bur H F Nrg - Nat F Nth C Bel - Nwy A Par - Gas A Pie S Ven A Rom H F Spa south coast - Mar F Tun S Tyn F Tus S Rom F Tyn S Rom Ottoman Empire F Adr S Apu F Aeg S Ion A Alb - Tri A Apu S Nap A Con - Bul F Ion S Nap F Nap S Apu A Rum S Ser - Bud (support cut) A Ser - Bud (failed; retreat: A Ser R Gre) A War - Urk (failed)  But while the Ottoman's are otherwise engaged, Germany slips into Sevastapol.  League Chat is silent.
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May 7, 2020 06:04
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Work hit me hard this week. We are once again behind--I can never seem to keep up! But I have a bunch of free time tomorrow, so I will attempt to rapid-fire some updates.
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May 7, 2020 06:04
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Germany, now is the time to seize edi
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May 7, 2020 08:45
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Fall 1916  The UK and Germany continue to shuffle their units around up north. Of note, the UK launched an attack on the German fleet in the Norwegian Sea.  Germany does not claim Sevastapol, and with the Ottoman Empire's help, is back in Moscow. In the process, this blocks an Austrian move.  Lots going on down south. The Ottoman Empire launches an offensive on Austria-Hungary, and now neatly occupy much of their territory. Germany begins moving south too, with British support.  This does not bode well for Austria-Hungary. Austria-Hungary A Bud-Tri (failed; retreat: burnt) A Ser - Rum A Ukr - Mos (failed) A Ven S Bud - Tri (support cut; retreat: burnt) - A Ukr United Kingdom A Bur H A Gas - Mar F Mar - Spa(sc) F Nat S Nth - Nrg F Nth - Nrg A Pie S Mun - Tyr A Rom H F Tun S Tyn F Tus S Rom F Tyn S Rom Germany A Boh - Vie F Den H F Kie - Hel A Mun - Tyr F Nrg H (retreat: burnt) A Nwy - Stp A Sev - Mos A Sil - Gal + A Ber + A Kie + A Mun Ottoman Empire F Adr S Apu - Ven F Aeg S Ion A Apu - Ven A Bul S Gre - Ser A Gre - Ser F Ion S Nap F Nap S Ion A Rum - Bud A Tri S Rum - Bud A War S Sev - Mos + A Con + F Smy  League Chat is ominously silent.
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May 7, 2020 19:29
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It's a shame that Austria's gone now. I would have liked to have seen them survive a few more turns, if only to mess with people's perfectly reasonable bets!
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May 7, 2020 19:33
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Ottomans are now technically in the driver's seat with 12 SCs Germany in 2nd with 11 UK maintains at 10 A-H left with one We may see this going to a three way draw but, it may not as the Ottomans and Germany have a vast front with which they might tussle over. The UK is technically the weakest of the three, but the lines with which they must defend against are relatively smaller and primarily naval, effectively making chokepoints against the other two.
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May 7, 2020 20:15
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With that intentional burning of the German fleet, it looks like Germany and England are angling for a two-way draw, but that could easily slide into a German solo
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May 7, 2020 20:35
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Everyone else might as well surrender now, Austria-Hungary has got this.
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May 7, 2020 21:03
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I'm impressed Germany has come back like this. They got beaten up real bad in the first fights but have come back and rapidly expanded.
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May 7, 2020 21:26
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ilmucche posted:I'm impressed Germany has come back like this. They got beaten up real bad in the first fights but have come back and rapidly expanded. The Ottomans similarly came back from near destruction to become a contender. This game has been a good demonstration that it's not over until it's over.
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May 7, 2020 21:55
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Conskill posted:This game has been a good demonstration that it's not over until it's over.
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May 7, 2020 23:09
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It may look like AH is in a bad spot, but Turkey and Germany have made a crucial error by leaving them with Romania as their only SC, allowing AH to take advantage of the rarely seen Dracula Rule.
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May 8, 2020 01:14
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My hope is that the players are going for a 3-way draw with Austria being defeated. Perhaps the players are rather bored of the game. It's either that or we're in for a very long slog. Noteworthy: - Turkey built a fleet in smy, but just like before, that fleet has nowhere to go. I'd have expected an army or a fleet in ank. Since England now has 4 fleets in the Mediterranean, it's very unlikely that they can gain more than Rome at this point. - England displaced the German fleet to allow them to disband it. Germany got another army build and solidified their non-aggression pact.
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May 8, 2020 02:08
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Spring 1917  Not fooling anyone about their ceasefire, UK and Germany continue to reshuffle their adjacent forces.  In Italy, the UK is able to make progress into Naples. They also attempt to take Venice with Germany's help, but to no avail. Germany tries for Trieste as well, but is repulsed. United Kingdom A Bur - Mar A Mar - Spa F Nat - Nrg F Nrg - Edi A Pie - Ven (failed) A Rom - Nap F Spa(sc) - Wes F Tun - Ion (failed) F Tus - Rom F Tyn S Rom - Nap  But over here we have some potential for SC changes. Germany moves into Warsaw, while the Ottoman's take Romania, while Austria-Hungary moves into the unguarded Sevastapol. Austria-Hungary A Rum - Sev Germany A Ber - Pru F Den - Ska A Gal - War F Hel - hol A Kie - Ruh A Mos S Gal - War A Mun - Sil A Stp - Liv A Tyr S Pie - Ven A Vie - Tri (failed) Ottoman Empire F Adr S Ven F Aeg - Gre A Bud S Bul - Rum A Bul - Rum A Con - Bul F Ion S Nap (support cut) F Nap S Ion (support cut; retreat: F Nap R Apu) A Ser - Alb F Smy - Aeg A Tri S Bud (support cut) A Ven H A War - Ukr  League Chat is dead.
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May 8, 2020 21:29
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So... Finland's gonna stay neutral in all this?
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May 8, 2020 21:33
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CAN'T KILL WHAT YOU CAN'T CATCH BOYEEE
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May 8, 2020 21:33
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AnAnonymousIdiot posted:So... Finland's gonna stay neutral in all this? More like no one cares enough about Finland to take it. Same with North Africa.
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May 8, 2020 21:48
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Okay, I guess we're picking the long slog option. With the loss of Naples, both England and Turkey are stuck Mediterranean-wise for a while longer. The unit that took Naples was an army instead of a fleet, so ION and apu will serve as chokepoints. Venice is also unpushable for now due to the unbreakable Adriatic Sea fleet defense. - England: +1/0 Naples - Turkey: +2/-3 Gain Rumania and Vienna but lose Naples, Warsaw, and Sev - Germany: +1/-1 Gain Warsaw but lose Vienna - Austria: +1/-1 Survive by clinging onto Sev - I think Germany will troll Turkey by support-defending Austria in Sev, so Austria only loses if they want to lose. - Turkey can use Trieste (with Budapest support and Venice support cutting tyr) to take Vienna. (Venice is not at risk because apu + ADR could double attack into it, and Trieste isn't at risk due to Albania) - Naples cannot be reclaimed due to the TYN support-defense. - In preparation for taking Venice, England should support into Tuscany. Piedmont would be 0 risk, but if they take the brave option of convoying Spain to Tuscany, then Naples will have a chance of being displaced. NeoRonTheNeuron fucked around with this message at 09:00 on May 11, 2020 |
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May 8, 2020 22:13
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The Tuscany convoy is free since Rome is enough to support Naples and hold the line.
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May 8, 2020 22:50
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I thought of that too, but Venice could attack Rome to break that support. Then ION + apu (with ION attacking or convoying) could take Naples.
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May 8, 2020 23:11
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Austria's life is basically entirely in Germany's hands. I'm not super sure what the current alliance web looks like, but all that needs to be done to kill them now is to dislodge them from Sev this turn. Whether that can be done without Turkey getting torn to shreds, I don't know.
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May 9, 2020 01:25
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NeoRonTheNeuron posted:- I think Germany will troll Turkey by support-defending Austria in St. Petersburg, so Austria only loses if they want to lose. Hey! I resemble that.
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May 11, 2020 06:08
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Fall 1917  Germany holds on Warsaw and helps Austria-Hungary take Sevastapol. As the Ottomans take Romania, this keeps A-H afloat. Still, the Ottoman's are able to push Germany out of Vienna. Austria-Hungary A Sev S War Ukr Germany F Hol H A Lvn - War A Mos S Sev A Pru - Sil A Ruh - Mun A Sil - Gal F Ska - Nwy A Tyr - Tri (failed) A Vie S Try - Tri (support cut; retreat: A Vie R Boh) A War - Ukr + A Ber  The Mediterranean is still a mess--though the UK has made progress in the Italian peninsula, taking hold of Naples. United Kingdom F Edi H A Mar - Pie A Nap H F Nrg H A Pie - Tus F Rom S Pie - Tus A Spa H F Tun - Ion (failed) F Tyn S Nap F Wes - Gol + F Lon Ottoman Empire F Adr - Ven (failed) F Aeg - Ion (failed) A Alb - Tri (failed) F Apu S Ion - Nap A Bud S Tri - Vie A Bul - Ser F Gre S Aeg - Ion F Ion - Nap (failed) A Rum S Ukr - Sev A Tri - Vie A Urk - Sev (failed; retreat: burnt) A Ven - Tyr (failed) Retreat move:  
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May 11, 2020 06:27
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Finally a turn that went as expected.  It gets easier with fewer people and fewer stabs.- Austria: It's not very nice, but they can wander into Turkey's backline. Sev -> Arm -> Ank or Smy. The Austria player was allied with Italy to take out Turkey, IIRC. Doing something like that would basically be the end of Turkey. - England and Germany should be capable of taking Vienna and Venice. I expect at least 1 more SC to fall to Germany, like Budapest or Sev. - Turkey should get England and Germany to turn on each other. While neither is well-positioned to pull off a stab, Germany will be in a position to win the game on its own if England doesn't do something about it.
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May 11, 2020 09:14
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Germany just wiping its rear end all over that map and turning it brown.
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May 11, 2020 10:00
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Xelkelvos posted:It's 34 supply centers total, not 35. the current standings have UK, Germany and Ottomans at a three way tie with 10 each and AH with a poor 4. Huh, so it is. I feel like I need to hand in my Diplomacy nerd card or something; I was sure that it was 35. Alright, so a 2-way tie can happen if two powers manage to split the map exactly on one of the 17 SC stalemate lines. That's unlikely, which explains why I don't think I've ever seen one (although that one 3-way I was in were I only owned tun in the end must've been close). I don't think it's possible for Germany and England to end up on a line like that from this position. Far as I'm aware there are only two 17 SC stalemate lines and both go through the Mediterranean, so GE can only arrange such a 2-way stalemate if Germany get fleets into the Med. That seems far fetched. I'd be happy to be proven wrong though. I'm not entirely sure what to expect at this point. I don't think a GE tie is possible. England need to attack Germany's northern centers to win even if England get all of the mediterranean, while Germany can win just by taking land from Turkey. The compensation is that England are in a slightly better position to stab, but not by much since they've made (been forced to make?) so many concessions on how their northern forces are placed. It's not unreasonable for both Germany and England to keep going since they will make gains, but the further they go the more I expect the board will favor Germany. I don't think it's possible for them to take out Turkey without letting Germany just win: at some point either Germany gets so far ahead or -- less likely -- England gets a really nice stab and the weaker party will have to ally the Turks. Maybe if they successfully shenanigan Austria-Hungary to take the south-east, but that also seems really hard to engineer without someone else just winning. Incidentally, Turkey not getting in to tri is a big deal: it means that they likely cannot hold vie or rum against the Germans this year. England, in contrast, will only maybe get ven if Germany decides they want to be nice.
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May 11, 2020 10:43
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Xerophyte posted:Incidentally, Turkey not getting in to tri is a big deal: it means that they likely cannot hold vie or rum against the Germans this year. England, in contrast, will only maybe get ven if Germany decides they want to be nice. Yep. Spoiler alert - I'm hosed
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May 11, 2020 14:58
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Honestly using Austria to finish of Turkey would be a decent way to stave of the alliance collapsing. Since every Turkish SC Austria takes is that much closer to them being eliminated, but it doesn't put any risk of Austria bouncing back and being a threat so long they don't get any of their home centers back.
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May 11, 2020 17:03
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England and Germany can't possibly be crazy enough to be attempting a 3 way draw with a single SC third, can they? They're both holding steady at 11 SCs each. Austria is primed now to run around into Turkey's rear and force them to make a choice between giving up the Balkans or protecting its home SCs, but without Austria having control of its home SCs, it's can't actually build anything.
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May 11, 2020 18:05
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Zengetsu posted:England and Germany can't possibly be crazy enough to be attempting a 3 way draw with a single SC third, can they? There may just be a few more surprises left in this game!
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May 11, 2020 18:22
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| # ? May 6, 2024 12:52 |
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I have to admit I'm amazed: Austria has one army left yet they're still a notable force on the board. I'll admit I wrote them off several turns ago, and now I understand how that led to my downfall.
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May 11, 2020 20:10
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