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Who is the #1 Overall Pick
This poll is closed.
Anthony Edwards 17 26.98%
Cole Anthony 3 4.76%
James Wiseman 12 19.05%
LaMelo Ball 19 30.16%
Other 12 19.05%
Total: 63 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Dexo posted:

I've been reading draft poo poo.

And I am all in on this dude

Poku

You know this writer is the real deal because he factors in something I've talked about before, specificially in regards to Thon Maker, "Neck Height."

It makes you look more impressive on paper but only gives slight court vision advantages in practice and may also hinder graceful movement because the head ends up like a pendulum pulling the chest around while shooting

Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 02:07 on Aug 30, 2020

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Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
I have seen a lot of Nico, including in person and even when he has games with good numbers it often just feels like he isn’t there. The shot is really inconsistent. He is good on the drive but doesn’t seem trust it. He is a good passer though.

In a way he is Sean Miller’s masterpiece in turning a absolutely garbage defender into a decent one.

I dunno, I could see him fitting in to the right coach’s system and being a dude who has a long career or just washing out in the G league in two years.

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON
I guess I don't understand why people are not more high on Wiseman. He was the consensus top prospect coming into college, and while he only played three games in college, he absolutely owned people in those games on a per minute basis. He is a legit 7-1 with a 7-6 wingspan, very fast and athletic for his size, with a big frame that can fill out. He is only 19 years old and seems to have a huge upside.

He doesn't have much of a post up game but who cares, post up are bad offense in 2020. From day one he would be an effective screen setter, rim runner, offensive rebounder and lob finisher. His shooting form looks good for a big, and I don't see why people assume he wont be able to develop a reliable outside shot. He has at least some ability to handle the ball. And he has the potential to be really good defensively, blocking shots and defending the paint right away and presumably improving with experience. He doesn't look to have slow feet or bad instincts on defense (although like every young big man he is going to get destroyed on switches at first). I guess his passing and ability to read defenses needs improvement, but again, he's only 19.

I see a lot of vague criticism of Wiseman's "leadership" and "intangibles" but I can't find any specifics about where that is coming from. He's just out of high school and he never got in any trouble, and his teams won all the time.

I'm wondering what I am missing. This is a weak draft. The top pick, Anthony Edwards, shot 40% from the field and 29% from 3 on a bad team in a weak SEC. Cole Anthony did the same thing in a tougher league, but still - those are not good numbers. Lamelo Ball can't shoot at all and plays no defense. Deni Avidja scored 10 points per game in a low tier euro league and Killian Hayes wasn't much better. They ain't gonna be the next Luka Doncic. Okongwu and Toppin are going to be solid pros, but probably nothing more. Halliburton looks good but not fantastic, and is physically weak. There are no sure bets in this draft.

I know the center position is devalued in today's game, but it seems crazy to me that Wiseman isn't vying with Edwards for the top choice.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Gonna bullet point this because I am lazy and sleep deprived:

- most of the people who don't like him very much have watched him going back to high school and also disagreed about being the number one prospect coming out of high school. Also "number one high school prospect" is not actually as predictive as you'd think. The list of number 1 RSCI players is littered with guys like Josh Jackson, Jahlil Okafor, Shabazz Muhammad, and OJ Mayo who had nothing NBA careers. The two most recent ones are RJ Barrett and Marvin Bagley, neither of whom looks particularly great yet either. Recruiting services are trying to project college production, not NBA.

-3 games is a tiny sample, and two of them were against teams ranked in the 300s on KenPom. Beating up on those guys just proves that you are a high major caliber player. The game against Oregon was fine but hardly dominant. He struggled a lot on defense and didn't overpower the tiny Oregon front court the way you'd want a 7 footer who is supposed to be the best prospect in the world to. You need to look at lower levels and his EYBL numbers are good but hardly dominant.

-no one disputes that he is very large and looks good running the court but I do think there are athletic limitations. He doesn't looks that quick laterally and he has a very long load time on his jump that limits his defensive potential a bit. Compare how quick he is off the ground to someone like Okongwu. I think you're also very wrong about his defensive instincts, they look pretty bad to me. He also needs to get stronger because so far in his career he gets pushed around pretty easily. He's young so he easily could, but it's just one more question mark.

-no one who doesn't like him gives a poo poo that he can't post up. I think most people think he can be a fine rim runner and lob threat (though possibly not an elite one because of the load time issue I mentioned above), but do you need to spend a top 5 pick to get one of those?

-his shot shows some promise but it's still very much theoretical. He had a tendency to take really dumb jumpers at lower levels so it could easily be a Embiid case where it gets just good enough that it hurts him because he tries too many contested jump shots and doesn't make them a great rate.

-i haven't seen anyone be critical of his intangibles. Maybe someone is mad about him getting paid in college high school? I don't give a poo poo about that and no one who I trust that is down on him does either. People are critical of him strictly as a basketball player.

-the position thing matters! Good centers are available for trade or on the scrape heap all the time because it's hard to play them in the playoffs. Unless you're KAT you have to be absurdly good on defense to be worth a heavy investment like a top 5 pick as a center. He looks like he could be an okay defender but probably not great one. This is why I actually dispute the huge upside thing. I think his most likely outcome is solidly above average starting center, but I don't think he's going to be a star. Think someone like Whiteside or Drummond, both guys who teams basically gave away. Edwards, who I don't particularly like but have much higher, theoretically fills a much more valuable and difficult to fill role as a primary perimeter creator.

Anyway all of this is just people on the internet talking mostly, everyone who talks to NBA teams has him as like Top 3 and the only reason no one talks about him as the top pick now is because a team with a good center got the pick. He's almost certainly going like top 5 in the actual draft, the debate is just whether or not he will be worth it.

MourningView fucked around with this message at 14:53 on Aug 30, 2020

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

wiseman is very athletic, but he can’t rotate on defense and isn’t a very good help defender; he’ll block a tom of shots but in transition and on pick and rolls he’s gonna get eaten alive, and most of his value on that end is going to come from blocks on the weak side as opposed to post defense or forcing bad shots in the paint

he can’t pass and he has an okay but not great handle, his jumper is actually pretty good but his strength is going to be playing on the inside to clean up the glass

he plays like anthony davis but his skillset is more in line with jarrett allen (with more upside of course)

he’s fine but he wouldn’t be a top pick in most drafts, he’s just sort of there by default and the twolves don’t need a center

e: welp make sure you refresh before you post declan jeez

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
From what I've seen and correct me if I'm wrong because I'm not much of a basketball scout but Wiseman seems really solid but nothing special. A big guy that can do everything you want but won't be an offensive force on his own. Seems like the issue is guys like that go in the mid lottery instead of undisputed #1.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Doltos posted:

From what I've seen and correct me if I'm wrong because I'm not much of a basketball scout but Wiseman seems really solid but nothing special. A big guy that can do everything you want but won't be an offensive force on his own. Seems like the issue is guys like that go in the mid lottery instead of undisputed #1.

Yeah this is where I am. He's fine, I would just try to swing on some guys who have a harder to find skillset or who I think will hold up better in a playoff series first. I have him in the late teens/early 20s because I do have some real questions about the defense, but back of the lottery would be fine.

Declan MacManus posted:

he can’t pass and he has an okay but not great handle, his jumper is actually pretty good but his strength is going to be playing on the inside to clean up the glass

Passing is a good point I couldn't work in. He's a pretty bad decision maker. When he gets the ball it's usually going up. Hopefully for a dunk but too often at lower levels that meant an awkward fadeaway jumper.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
The first line from this bit about Desmond Bane on the Prospect Development patreon killed me.

"Bane is a comically good shooter, despite a shot selection that is in the Young Thug Tha Leak echelon of exploring the studio space. Bane’s jumper is a little funny, it is a 2 motion shot that generates a great deal of power from the shoulders.In the ideal form, there wouldn’t be as much effort from the upper body and the release angle would be up instead of out. But, when there is this level of success, tinkering is for the true BLESH believers. To the synergy stats."

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌
IDC how good he is or who he plays for Im buying a bane jersey

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
Nesmith being universially regarded as a possible lottery pick while Bane might be a second rounder is really weird to me. I think Bane is the clear best shooter in the draft. He could actually dribble in college, and he's also a much better passer and defender. I guess he's older and not quite as big but doesn't seem like enough of a difference to matter.

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy

MourningView posted:

Nesmith being universially regarded as a possible lottery pick while Bane might be a second rounder is really weird to me. I think Bane is the clear best shooter in the draft. He could actually dribble in college, and he's also a much better passer and defender. I guess he's older and not quite as big but doesn't seem like enough of a difference to matter.

Would this be similar to the Hield vs Murray situation in their draft?

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Kibner posted:

Would this be similar to the Hield vs Murray situation in their draft?

I don't think either of them has the same ceiling Murray does, and the age difference isn't as extreme as that one was. Murray is one of the youngest guys ever drafted in the one and done era and Buddy is like 45.

look at this king

https://twitter.com/w_a_morris/status/1300013989653553152?s=19

MourningView fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Aug 30, 2020

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

MourningView posted:

Gonna bullet point this because I am lazy and sleep deprived:

- most of the people who don't like him very much have watched him going back to high school and also disagreed about being the number one prospect coming out of high school. Also "number one high school prospect" is not actually as predictive as you'd think. The list of number 1 RSCI players is littered with guys like Josh Jackson, Jahlil Okafor, Shabazz Muhammad, and OJ Mayo who had nothing NBA careers. The two most recent ones are RJ Barrett and Marvin Bagley, neither of whom looks particularly great yet either. Recruiting services are trying to project college production, not NBA.

-3 games is a tiny sample, and two of them were against teams ranked in the 300s on KenPom. Beating up on those guys just proves that you are a high major caliber player. The game against Oregon was fine but hardly dominant. He struggled a lot on defense and didn't overpower the tiny Oregon front court the way you'd want a 7 footer who is supposed to be the best prospect in the world to. You need to look at lower levels and his EYBL numbers are good but hardly dominant.

-no one disputes that he is very large and looks good running the court but I do think there are athletic limitations. He doesn't looks that quick laterally and he has a very long load time on his jump that limits his defensive potential a bit. Compare how quick he is off the ground to someone like Okongwu. I think you're also very wrong about his defensive instincts, they look pretty bad to me. He also needs to get stronger because so far in his career he gets pushed around pretty easily. He's young so he easily could, but it's just one more question mark.

-no one who doesn't like him gives a poo poo that he can't post up. I think most people think he can be a fine rim runner and lob threat (though possibly not an elite one because of the load time issue I mentioned above), but do you need to spend a top 5 pick to get one of those?

-his shot shows some promise but it's still very much theoretical. He had a tendency to take really dumb jumpers at lower levels so it could easily be a Embiid case where it gets just good enough that it hurts him because he tries too many contested jump shots and doesn't make them a great rate.

-i haven't seen anyone be critical of his intangibles. Maybe someone is mad about him getting paid in college high school? I don't give a poo poo about that and no one who I trust that is down on him does either. People are critical of him strictly as a basketball player.

-the position thing matters! Good centers are available for trade or on the scrape heap all the time because it's hard to play them in the playoffs. Unless you're KAT you have to be absurdly good on defense to be worth a heavy investment like a top 5 pick as a center. He looks like he could be an okay defender but probably not great one. This is why I actually dispute the huge upside thing. I think his most likely outcome is solidly above average starting center, but I don't think he's going to be a star. Think someone like Whiteside or Drummond, both guys who teams basically gave away. Edwards, who I don't particularly like but have much higher, theoretically fills a much more valuable and difficult to fill role as a primary perimeter creator.

Anyway all of this is just people on the internet talking mostly, everyone who talks to NBA teams has him as like Top 3 and the only reason no one talks about him as the top pick now is because a team with a good center got the pick. He's almost certainly going like top 5 in the actual draft, the debate is just whether or not he will be worth it.

Ok that makes a lot of sense. Thanks. And thanks to you too Declan

Probably Magic
Oct 9, 2012

Looking cute, feeling cute.

MourningView posted:

I don't think either of them has the same ceiling Murray does, and the age difference isn't as extreme as that one was. Murray is one of the youngest guys ever drafted in the one and done era and Buddy is like 45.

look at this king

https://twitter.com/w_a_morris/status/1300013989653553152?s=19

Admirable sweatshirt choice.

I can't get over how a good 90% of overseas draft prospects look like threads that could break even on a windless day and then end up being fairly dominant. NBA conditioning is lovecraftian magic at this point.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

Probably Magic posted:

Admirable sweatshirt choice.

I can't get over how a good 90% of overseas draft prospects look like threads that could break even on a windless day and then end up being fairly dominant. NBA conditioning is lovecraftian magic at this point.

i think it has a lot to do with american food culture; tall guys especially who are training for sports full time are going to be working off of a caloric deficit and unless you’re specifically eating to bulk up you’ll be skinny proportionally

in the us food is just sort of shoved in your face

i’m just spitballing though

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.
Also getting to like NBA level means the teams will literally provide you with food guide and you make enough money to do eat

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

MourningView posted:

Nesmith being universially regarded as a possible lottery pick while Bane might be a second rounder is really weird to me. I think Bane is the clear best shooter in the draft. He could actually dribble in college, and he's also a much better passer and defender. I guess he's older and not quite as big but doesn't seem like enough of a difference to matter.

This is strongly prejudiced by me reading the B A N E thing on the prospect development patreon about 12 hours ago, but Bane being an extremely late second rounder vs Nesmith mid-lottery only because the standstill guy is 1.3 years younger? Is it because Nesmith has an imagined 6'10 wingspan and Bane has a 6'4 wingspan (he definitely needs a new measurement). Stats and stat-istics?

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Dejan Bimble posted:

This is strongly prejudiced by me reading the B A N E thing on the prospect development patreon about 12 hours ago, but Bane being an extremely late second rounder vs Nesmith mid-lottery only because the standstill guy is 1.3 years younger? Is it because Nesmith has an imagined 6'10 wingspan and Bane has a 6'4 wingspan (he definitely needs a new measurement). Stats and stat-istics?

Nesmith isn't strictly a standstill guy, he's a killer off movement shooter, which is valuable. Stackhouse ran a lot of NBA sets to get him running off screens for jumpers. He just can't really do much off the dribble or attack closeouts. It's possible Bane is too limited as an athlete to do much off the dribble in the NBA too, but at least he's shown it, and he's just as good as Nesmith off screens or on catch and shoots. But yeah Nesmith is also bigger which is probably part of it. I do think he's a first rounder because teams will find room for a wing sized guy who shoots, but he and Bey both seem high to me relative to Bane.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


in regards to Bane, why would you draft a shooter if you're about to throw him out of a plane????

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

MourningView posted:

Nesmith isn't strictly a standstill guy, he's a killer off movement shooter, which is valuable. Stackhouse ran a lot of NBA sets to get him running off screens for jumpers. He just can't really do much off the dribble or attack closeouts. It's possible Bane is too limited as an athlete to do much off the dribble in the NBA too, but at least he's shown it, and he's just as good as Nesmith off screens or on catch and shoots. But yeah Nesmith is also bigger which is probably part of it. I do think he's a first rounder because teams will find room for a wing sized guy who shoots, but he and Bey both seem high to me relative to Bane.

My mistake, it's been too long since I watched Nesmith. Add that to whatever his wingspan is 6'8 or 6'10, and all the other stuff he does and I get why he's up in the lottery.

This draft is weird with the role players in the lottery and potentially better players scattered all the way past 60.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Dejan Bimble posted:

My mistake, it's been too long since I watched Nesmith. Add that to whatever his wingspan is 6'8 or 6'10, and all the other stuff he does and I get why he's up in the lottery.

I think my issue is that I'm not sure he does much other stuff? He's a great shooter who has the size to hypothetically be a decent defender but he doesn't actually play very good defense yet. So many guys who get classified as "3&D" are really more like "3 or D" which is what makes someone like Vassell special

tanglewood1420
Oct 28, 2010

The importance of this mission cannot be overemphasized
For draft prospects, "3 and D" almost always means "D... and 3?"

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
Yeah Okoro also gets it even though he shot like 20% on all shots not at the rim and spent most of his conference season being dared to shoot.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

calling okoro 3&d is really loving stupid, considering that his biggest strength on offense is that he's good with the ball in his hands and can pass pretty well so pretty much the opposite of a low usage catch and shoot guy

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

MourningView posted:

I think my issue is that I'm not sure he does much other stuff? He's a great shooter who has the size to hypothetically be a decent defender but he doesn't actually play very good defense yet. So many guys who get classified as "3&D" are really more like "3 or D" which is what makes someone like Vassell special

My "other stuff" was the off ball movement you brought up, nuffing else. Whereas Bane can do all sorts of stuff with the Ball and has all these avenues of development.

I don't like when guys are labeled as defenders based on +wingspan alone. Schröder was supposed to be the new Rondo, because he had long arms. It took about 6 years for Dante Exum to show a lot on defense while not developing anything else, Frank Ntilikina figured out defense but can't play basketball.

In Nesmith vs Bane, Bane can do off ball stuff, he can work off pnrs, he can dribble a little bit, and makes it when he does get to the rim, and his defense is great now. I get the Nesmith shooting 50% on threes over 14 games and the measurables, I've just been swayed hard to Bane.

I just stumbled upon this stepien article about the 3&D archetype that ends as an endorsement for Jarron Cumberland as the most underrated senior and best 3&D man in the draft. I'll admit that came as a suprise. But why the hell not, why the helllllll not
https://www.thestepien.com/2019/10/25/draft-notes-unreliability-especially-jump-shot-unreliability-3d-archetype/

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
Oh man a gigantic weird Ben Rubin article, I miss those since he got hired by an NBA team. I would not endorse drafting Jarron Cumberland, personally, but teams have done weirder things with second round picks.

I am not going to pretend I am amazing at this but I am confident I'm much better than Sam Smith

https://twitter.com/chicagobulls/status/1300780450684612609?s=19

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming
A weird amount of mocks I've seen has Charlotte taking Advija or Toppin despite PF being the only position they're sort-of OK at

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
No way they take Deni but you have to admit everything else about Toppin screams Hornets draft pick. And he should probably play a lot of center though I don't think there's anywhere you can put him where the defense won't be a big problem.

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming

MourningView posted:

everything else about Toppin screams Hornets draft pick.

Yeah, absolutely. I am in denial

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

MourningView posted:

Oh man a gigantic weird Ben Rubin article, I miss those since he got hired by an NBA team. I would not endorse drafting Jarron Cumberland, personally, but teams have done weirder things with second round picks.

I am not going to pretend I am amazing at this but I am confident I'm much better than Sam Smith

https://twitter.com/chicagobulls/status/1300780450684612609?s=19

je sus christ that’s one hell of a take

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy

MourningView posted:

Oh man a gigantic weird Ben Rubin article, I miss those since he got hired by an NBA team. I would not endorse drafting Jarron Cumberland, personally, but teams have done weirder things with second round picks.

I am not going to pretend I am amazing at this but I am confident I'm much better than Sam Smith

https://twitter.com/chicagobulls/status/1300780450684612609?s=19

A Pels blogger I follow said that Toppin is a six-months younger, but worse, version of Jason Collins. I haven't watched hardly any of either player so I can't say how right or wrong that is. lol

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Kibner posted:

A Pels blogger I follow said that Toppin is a six-months younger, but worse, version of Jason Collins. I haven't watched hardly any of either player so I can't say how right or wrong that is. lol

Do you mean John Collins? because he's extremely good. jason collins is retired and 41 so the alternative here is that toppin is almost buddy hield level of old

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
Yeah I assume he meant John. John Collins is a decent comp for him. He will be a good offensive player but he's even worse than Collins on defense and Collins is an issue on that end.

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy
Yeah, I meant John Collins. My bad.

Salvor_Hardin
Sep 13, 2005

I want to go protest.
Nap Ghost
What could have been.

https://twitter.com/thejasonkirk/status/1300833752453648384

Carlosologist
Oct 13, 2013

Revelry in the Dark

Doesn’t PJ Washington do the same things as Toppin but better?

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch


http://hawkchill.com/people/more-than-an-athlete-slam-dunkley/

he’s actually a cool person too, drat, why would he deny destiny like that

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming

Carlosologist posted:

Doesn’t PJ Washington do the same things as Toppin but better?

I mean I guess he shoots the three. Washington basically plays like a third Morris twin.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Carlosologist posted:

Doesn’t PJ Washington do the same things as Toppin but better?

Obi has like 3 inches on him and is a way better vertical athlete but I think PJ was a better prospect yeah.

MourningView fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Sep 1, 2020

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Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.
https://fansided.com/2020/09/03/aleksej-pokusevski-nba-draft-mystery/



edit:


https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2907034-how-to-spot-an-nba-draft-bust

quote:


spotting a draft bust.

22-Year-Old Cutoff for Lottery Picks
The Late Riser
Low-Assist Wings
Low-Block Bigs
No Bankable Skill

Dexo fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Sep 3, 2020

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