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I'm positive Trump will debate. He really believes he will tear through Biden like wet kleenex. This has no bearing on reality because Trump will answer every question by saying "You have to reelect me because Biden's so feeble he doesn't even know where he is and also because he has a devious plan to destroy America which he will achieve instantly." Meanwhile Biden will perform competently, he's been debating so long that he doesn't need a brain, it's all muscle memory at this point. What I'm saying is the debates will happen and they will suck. Looking forward to the veep debate though.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:20
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sexpig by night posted:https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1301244429399924737 Who's still saying that?
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Sep 2, 2020 22:20
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:It would affect me because I feel that it would make Donald J. Trump, our favorite Big Wet President, more likely to get re elected. It won't. Maybe in the past, there was enough of a correlation between financial markets and the state of the national economy for some people to conflate the two. But those days are long gone. The stock market indexes are divorced from reality, and only affect the small slice of Americans with substantial savings in stocks. I happen to be one of them, and it won't influence my vote. The DOW could go to 40k for all I care-- I'm not voting for Trump. Its nice seeing my retirement and investment accounts go up, but its also meaningless since I'm still decades from retirement. People nearing retirement will certainly enjoy the stock market going back up, like my parents. It hasn't affected their vote either. People have mostly already decided how they are going to vote, and the stock market doesn't change that because it doesn't change you current circumstances. The stock market going up by "fill-in-whatever-number" doesn't actually make people any wealthier in an immediate cash-flow sort of way. It increases the value of your nest egg, net-worth, etc-- sure. But you have to sell assets and cash-out to actually realize those earnings or have any increase in standard of living. And then you have a smaller portfolio going forward. Aside from day traders and hedge funds, no one has really "made" any money, they just have seen their IRAs and 401ks go up-- if they are lucky enough to have one. Thats nice and a good thing for those people, sure. But it means nothing in an immediate sense. Most importantly, none of that matters if you have lost your job, had a family member get sick and die, get sick yourself, etc. If you lost your job & enhanced unemployment, and are raiding your retirement to make ends meet, the stock market going up today doesn't matter. You still have no money and are rapidly draining your savings. If anything, you are missing out more and more on potential gains-- the opportunity costs are massive. If you don't have a retirement account, are living paycheck to paycheck (like I was 8 years ago), and just lost your job, the stock market going up also doesn't matter. Trump celebrating the Dow cracking 30,000 as if that matters to anyone is very much a modern "let them eat cake" moment. Why COVID has been so disastrous for Trump is you can't gaslight a pandemic and economic crash. The stock market going up is only an overwhelmingly positive thing in favor of Trump to people who are so sufficiently privileged that their health, family, job/income, and standard of living were never affected by the disastrous events of the last nine months. Those people are plutocrats who are already voting for Trump. Its not going to change the minds of voters who have actual immediate concerns that are not addressed by the Dow Index. Trump can brag about whatever arbitrary stock index he wants-- that doesn't actually mean anything to most people, so it won't have any effect. Grayly Squirrel fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Sep 2, 2020 |
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Sep 2, 2020 22:21
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:Yes, and 2016 also showed us more than ever how loving stupid the average voter is. Ehhh, I'm not too worried about big DJI numbers changing anyone's mind. People's choices are pretty baked in at this point. Even before COVID, with the market at record highs, Trump was already facing stiff headwinds. Slowly but surely I think more people are growing to understand that the market does not reflect reality, even if they're personally doing ok because of it. I don't think anyone right now would express much confidence in the economy, no matter what the market is doing.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:22
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sexpig by night posted:https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1301244429399924737 The principled Democratic leadership we deserve.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:22
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I don't understand, who setup Pelosi doing what? Getting a haircut? What am I missing?
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Sep 2, 2020 22:23
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Barr is the worst.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:23
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Manager Hoyden posted:Speaking of stocks, maybe you guys can explain a conspiracy theory to me. That isn't an actual thing. The numbers required to do something like that would be staggering. Properly absurd, given the volume it would take to move number like it has. And it would take a level of coordination that simply doesn't exist. The big players don't care about number, they care about making money, and they'll do it no matter which way number goes. MAAYYYBE such a thing might exist in some limited fashion for individual stocks with culty followings like Tesla.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:24
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Zotix posted:Dow went up 450 points today. What is driving this? There's awful GDP numbers, awful unemployment, evictions all over. What drove the market today and generally speaking up constantly? They just changed three of the 30 companies that make up the DOW the other day. They dumped Exxon, Raytheon and Pfiser, and replaced them with Salesforce, Honeywell and Amgen. Tech is booming because everyone is working from home and biopharm is booming because, well, you know, pandemics and stuff. So if you suddenly make the DOW much more tech-heavy, number will go up even if the economy is tanking. In other words, the DOW in particular is a joke. It is a lovely leftover from the 1890s, when it was too difficult to calculate how all stocks were doing so they picked 30 stocks to make it easier. And they change those 30 stonks regularly to dump the ones that are in dying industries or simply go bankrupt. No one should be paying any attention to the DOW now. The answer to the bigger question of why are stocks so high? Because there is no other place to put your money right now. Interest rates are zero and everyone is terrified of real estate. Meanwhile, 60 million people put money into 401ks on a regular basis, and that money is used to constantly buy all stocks, pretty much regardless of how the companies are actually performing. Everyone knows it's a bubble that is going to pop eventually, but hey 
predicto fucked around with this message at 22:37 on Sep 2, 2020 |
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Sep 2, 2020 22:24
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sexpig by night posted:https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1301244429399924737 She's good at twisting House Dems to do what she wants behind the scenes but that's about it.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:24
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Pick posted:If you had a lot of small cap exposure or mid-cap, for example, you're seeing a different picture. So stick with a S&P 500 index fund and hold on for the ride.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:25
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sexpig by night posted:https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1301244429399924737 Even for Pelosi that’s low
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Sep 2, 2020 22:25
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Sharks Eat Bear posted:a lot of older folks are heavily invested in the market via retirement accounts. polling from the past few months has shown really poor numbers among the elderly for trump, likely due primarily to the GOP's covid strategy basically being sacrificing the olds but maybe also the market being much weaker at the time. the latter is speculation on my part, I don't know if there's data to back up the market weakness contributing to unfavorability with elderly, but it wouldn't surprise me, and it would explain how a market recovery could play out in trump's favor even if the bigger problems of unemployment and housing insecurity persist Bear in mind older folks generally have more conservative investment portfolios. So they're not all FAANG which is driving a lot of the uptick.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:25
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this dude straight up wired $680k directly from his company's PPP account to the boat dealership https://www.justice.gov/usao-mdfl/press-release/file/1312226/download
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Sep 2, 2020 22:27
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:I don't understand, who setup Pelosi doing what? Getting a haircut? What am I missing? She didn't wear a mask, and there was a recording of it. What she did was dumb but conservative shitbags and the usual shitposters are going to run it into the ground.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:27
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YodaTFK posted:She didn't wear a mask, and there was a recording of it. What she did was dumb but conservative shitbags and the usual shitposters are going to run it into the ground. Her reply is loving atrocious.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:28
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Silly Burrito posted:So stick with a S&P 500 index fund and hold on for the ride. My own allocations are fine, I'm saying that old people don't just have SPY (and shouldn't), so they haven't seen their net worth necessarily skyrocket even on paper. Lots of olds are also mad because munis are paying super low rates and old people like muni bonds.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:29
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ReidRansom posted:That isn't an actual thing. The numbers required to do something like that would be staggering. Properly absurd, given the volume it would take to move number like it has. And it would take a level of coordination that simply doesn't exist. The big players don't care about number, they care about making money, and they'll do it no matter which way number goes. Oh yeah, I assumed it wasn't true. I guess what I was asking is if that is an actual conspiracy theory with a name.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:30
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TulliusCicero posted:Yeah it's real wierd how one malignant narcissist would make the same mistakes of the malignant narcissist he just beat, really makes you think probably both think the same way. trump legit thinks he won by a super duper majority last time and learned none of the lessons he should have (you barely won and got lucky, expand your loving base and try to or pretend to give a poo poo about others) so he hasnt learned poo poo. to sound like a dumb nerd like gladwell, he always goes with his gut and never thinks about making other choices once the intial choice has been made. oh gently caress off barr.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:31
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YodaTFK posted:She didn't wear a mask, and there was a recording of it. What she did was dumb but conservative shitbags and the usual shitposters are going to run it into the ground. it was pretty stupid and genuinely bad of her but refusing to even go 'yep I hosed up, sorry about that' and instead accusing the loving rando salon of laying a trap for her makes me not give a single gently caress about the hypocrisy and all of the trump fans getting angry about it.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:31
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:I don't understand, who setup Pelosi doing what? Getting a haircut? What am I missing? Seems like it would have been better to issue a mea culpa instead of a statement that amounts to "I didn't think anyone would tell on me."
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Sep 2, 2020 22:32
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ReidRansom posted:That isn't an actual thing. The numbers required to do something like that would be staggering. Properly absurd, given the volume it would take to move number like it has. And it would take a level of coordination that simply doesn't exist. The big players don't care about number, they care about making money, and they'll do it no matter which way number goes. Like most conspiracy theories, it misses the forest for the trees. If they wanted to buy securities directly, they would do it openly. They don't need to. What is actually happening is the Fed is not only buying up US Treasuries to keep interest rates low (like it did after the Great Recession), but it is also quite openly buying corporate bonds in an open ended and unprecedented way. By doing so, they are essentially printing money and cheaply pushing it into the economy. Without the Fed buying program, interest rates would be set by supply and demand. Interest rates on safe government bonds would increase, making them an attractive alternative to investments in stocks. Interest rates on corporate debt would also skyrocket, as an open market would start to price in the real risk that many of these companies are going bottoms-up/brankrupt if demand does not pick back up. The combination of the two would quickly spark a vicious cycle liquidity crisis, resulting in another Great Recession type implosion-- if not another Great Depression. Instead, with the feds buying treasuries, and corporate america kept afloat by artificially cheap bonds, there really is nowhere to put your money except for stocks. So stocks keep going up. This can't go on forever, obviously. But it can go on longer than a lay person would think, and certainly long enough to ride out the current economic circumstances-- so long as there is a vaccine and recovery by the Spring.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:32
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The Fed cannot buy stock directly, legally. That's part of the federal reserve act. However, laws
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Sep 2, 2020 22:33
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Wilbur Swain posted:I'm positive Trump will debate. He really believes he will tear through Biden like wet kleenex. This has no bearing on reality because Trump will answer every question by saying "You have to reelect me because Biden's so feeble he doesn't even know where he is and also because he has a devious plan to destroy America which he will achieve instantly." Meanwhile Biden will perform competently, he's been debating so long that he doesn't need a brain, it's all muscle memory at this point. What I'm saying is the debates will happen and they will suck. biden will do fine maybe even good. i suspect he is just going to play the reagan act and pull some 2012 type burns. he will also come off as empathetic while trump makes fearmongering bullshit and weird personal attacks. VP debates will be fun though.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:34
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sexpig by night posted:it was pretty stupid and genuinely bad of her but refusing to even go 'yep I hosed up, sorry about that' and instead accusing the loving rando salon of laying a trap for her makes me not give a single gently caress about the hypocrisy and all of the trump fans getting angry about it. But see, she's SAVVY and this was a SAVVY political move because she MANAGES her caucus in the house and is an EXPERT in Getting Things Done lafoikemfpoodmwioiqp[,alfmregutweomawk aslk sjginergerwd,apmfwoigm etc etc etc gently caress Pelosi, agreed. Put her out to loving pasture already.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:36
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So the feds are now charging a woman for throwing a helmet at a city cop during a protest. Federal charges for throwing a helmet at a city cop. Seems like a big over step. Charge is civil disorder if you’re curious. https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/20...d-protests.html quote:A Seattle man is accused of launching a ball bearing with a slingshot during a downtown demonstration in July and striking a Portland Fire Bureau medic.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:36
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Pick posted:The Fed cannot buy stock directly, legally. That's part of the federal reserve act. However, laws If there’s one thing I’ve learned from this administration, laws mean absolute dick now.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:37
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Manager Hoyden posted:Oh yeah, I assumed it wasn't true. I guess what I was asking is if that is an actual conspiracy theory with a name. Oh, yeah I have no idea if there's a name for it other than dumb nonsense Grayly Squirrel posted:Like most conspiracy theories, it misses the forest for the trees. If they wanted to buy securities directly, they would do it openly. They don't need to. And also this, yeah. Cus I mean, if you're buying a security you're buying a security, number and price don't care why and no one is going to ask.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:37
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https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1301268382348726274 wow, when you go to far even for barr.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:37
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Blind Pineapple posted:What would even be the point of trying to prep Donald Trump for a debate? It would be like trying to teach your dog to play chess. I think a pigeon is more apt. It would knock all the pieces over, poo poo on the board, and then strut around like it won. A doggo would just be a very good boy/girl who wanted to lick your face and make you feel better.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:39
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https://twitter.com/toddzwillich/status/1301266559747395586 jesus christ bill, why don't you just say it.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:41
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ReidRansom posted:Oh, yeah I have no idea if there's a name for it other than dumb nonsense Its called the Plunge Protection Team. Like all conspiracy theories, there is a kernel of truth viewed through a distorted lens of Dunning-Kruger ignorance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets
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Sep 2, 2020 22:43
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301249968091455488 If you combine this tweet with 1. The S&P 500 is at the 4th highest overvaluation ever recorded 2. The Fed has over the past 6 months procured over 30% of all the outstanding mortgage backed securities 3. And also acquired 4 Trillion in corporate debt You will see that this is a threat and not actually a comment on Wall Streets feelings about Biden.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:44
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Murgos posted:If you combine this tweet with the fed isn't going to torpedo the economy to help trump
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Sep 2, 2020 22:45
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Trump moderator list he submitted
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Sep 2, 2020 22:51
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How many of those people work for OANN.
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Sep 2, 2020 22:52
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YodaTFK posted:She didn't wear a mask, and there was a recording of it. What she did was dumb but conservative shitbags and the usual shitposters are going to run it into the ground. You don't get to position yourself as the opposition leader, repeatedly criticizing the President for his mismanagement of a pandemic and refusal to adhere to basic scientific protocols like wearing a mask in public, and then decide to flout the rules when it is convenient for you to undertake your personal errands. Why should anyone take her seriously when she advocates for wearing a mask in public in the future? Also the "Well yeah I was wrong but the real culprits are the people who snitched on me, they must be out to get me and taking advantage of my trusting nature for some nefarious political agenda" bullshit is a straight up Trump move. Edit: The follow-up is even worse: https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1301245578949668864 I just got my dreads retwisted last week and wore a mask the entire time, including during the hair wash. Just weak "the law is for thee, not for me" poo poo from start to finish. Mat Cauthon fucked around with this message at 23:02 on Sep 2, 2020 |
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Sep 2, 2020 22:54
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Trump moderator list he submitted Hoda Kotb? Cmon this is just those fake names from that Japanese baseball game
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Sep 2, 2020 22:54
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PBA card chat: I have an in-law in New Jersey with a card and who's used it. I've gotten a full breakdown of how it works, and it's truly an alternative justice system for cops and their friends and family. For NJ, there are two tiers of cards: silver and gold. A cop gets something ridiculous like 24 silver cards to give out per year: these will get you out of some minor traffic violations. When pulling someone over, a cop has some discretion on whether or not to accept this card, although not accepting it will likely get you some angry calls from the issuing cop. But this depends on the cop, and they can ignore it if they want. They can also take it away afterwards--I believe the cop can then re-pick it up and give it back to the person, but I'm not sure. A gold card, on the other hand, is legit "get outta jail free." These are supposed to only go to the cops immediate family, and they only get a few to give out. This is what my in-law has. If you get pulled over and present this card--the cop will get in some major poo poo if they don't accept it. Like "retaliation and harassing the cops family" bad. These are never to be taken away--a cop can call to confirm they're real, but they can't take it away. Speeding? No ticket. Running through red lights? No ticket. Drunk driving? Escort home, no ticket. Although it's going to make it back to the cop who gave you the card. My in-law was pulled over at a speed trap, and pulled out the gold card--the cop was real pissed. Called in, confirmed it was legit, and then angrily sent them on their way. Now, this is only really supposed to work with local PD--I don't think the cards will work with state police. But the further away you get from the issuing precinct, the less effective it's going to be. But they're just as bad as they sound. Insurrectum fucked around with this message at 22:59 on Sep 2, 2020 |
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Sep 2, 2020 22:55
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Bobson Dugnutt or bust
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Sep 2, 2020 22:55
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