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Nuggets also still give some minutes to Plumlee, who is a very good backup center, so you can definitely bring JaVale or Dwight in for that to give AD a rest, but also yeah I think Dwight on Jokic is fine for stretches too. Jokic is a problem for pretty much anyone to at least some extent, but Dwight can bang with him in the post and I don't think Jokic is really going to regularly cook him off the dribble or anything. He might step out and hit threes like he did against Gobert but I don't think there's much anyone can do with him when he's doing that.
MourningView fucked around with this message at 15:38 on Sep 17, 2020 |
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Sep 17, 2020 15:04
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euphronius posted:Davis at 5 isn’t really small small ball is a state of mind
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Sep 17, 2020 15:19
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The only reason they don't play Davis at the 5 more is that he hates banging around down low. Denver should go to the post often when Davis is guarding Jokic to try and wear him down.
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Sep 17, 2020 15:34
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tanglewood1420 posted:Dwight has been good this year! The Lakers definitely will give him 20-25 minutes a game against the Nuggets. Just because they ditched their centers against Houston's unique scheme doesn't mean they have shifted philosophy totally. And anyway, I'd back Howard to do at better against Jokic than Zubac (he's actually become fairly nimble and mobile this year in his slimmed down self) and way way way better than Harrell. JaVale's been good too! The JaVale lineups in the regular season were productive and accounted for 3 of the top 5 largest minutes-played lineups. You're right in that they don't really have a true "Starting" Center and just use whomever makes the most sense, and Dwight gives them a P&R weapon on offense that has been pretty effective. MourningView posted:Jokic is a problem for pretty much anyone to at least some extent, This pretty much is it, and I like that the Lakers can try to go big or "Small" and show Jokic different defenders. Most importantly I think the Lakers have people who can defend Jokic without NEEDING to double him. Jokic's still going to score and get his dimes though.
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Sep 17, 2020 15:36
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Not doubling jokic does seem like the winning play
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Sep 17, 2020 15:36
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jokic on his way to the WCF 
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Sep 17, 2020 16:04
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Proud of Murray and jokic for matching chris Paul's wcf appearance total at such a young age
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Sep 17, 2020 16:06
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Metapod posted:Proud of Murray and jokic for matching chris Paul's wcf appearance total at such a young age https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1305984620001923080
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Sep 17, 2020 16:29
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https://twitter.com/sportsradiopd/status/1306615848451346432?s=20 I don't even remember who ESPN's third color person is after JVG/Jackson and Doris, so that's nice
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Sep 17, 2020 16:33
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Metapod posted:Proud of Murray and jokic for matching chris Paul's wcf appearance total at such a young age also Carmelo Anthony's!
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Sep 17, 2020 16:33
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looks at the rider in the background looks at jokic's concerned expression jokic, you're going the wrong way!
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Sep 17, 2020 16:43
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Vivek and Joe Dumars are going to team up and launch a new cologne quote:As for Dumars’ role going forward, the Kings announced on Thursday that he will be the chief strategy officer. McNair, sources say, will report directly to Ranadive.
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Sep 17, 2020 16:48
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Jordan never made the WCF
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Sep 17, 2020 16:51
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Nothing better illustrates the death of numbers in sports than 538's forecast giving the celtics an almost 50% chance to win the finals. Did Nate sell the site to barstool or something?
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Sep 17, 2020 16:54
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I’m not sure I’m prepared to root for a player named Cade
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Sep 17, 2020 17:02
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chamois posted:Nothing better illustrates the death of numbers in sports than 538's forecast giving the celtics an almost 50% chance to win the finals. Did Nate sell the site to barstool or something? Must be what bill Simmons did with all that spotify money
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Sep 17, 2020 17:03
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chamois posted:Nothing better illustrates the death of numbers in sports than 538's forecast giving the celtics an almost 50% chance to win the finals. Did Nate sell the site to barstool or something? 538 has always had crappy basketball analysis. I think their thing really doesn't like Miami so that's why the Celtics have such an advantage, it think the Celts are going to walk in which gives them a big edge. ELO is probably not a very intuitive way of trying to predict a championship, its ok for determining a series. I don't like CARMELO either though so the whole thing is kinda bunk. Edit: Oh the RAPTOR thing is almost 60%, I dunno what that is but it also looks stupid. ELO still has the Celtics favored but in a much more realistic 34% chance which is basically ELO saying most things are a tossup beyond Denver. Lockback fucked around with this message at 17:11 on Sep 17, 2020 |
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Sep 17, 2020 17:07
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Senator Drinksalot posted:Jordan never made the WCF "At press time, analyst Stephen A. Smith suggested LeBron would never be considered great until he beat Jordan in the playoffs." chamois posted:Nothing better illustrates the death of numbers in sports than 538's forecast giving the celtics an almost 50% chance to win the finals. Did Nate sell the site to barstool or something? At it was at something like 55% before game 1. Meanwhile, I think it had the Nuggets at less than 1% when they were down 3-2 to the Clippers.
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Sep 17, 2020 17:08
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I was critical of the Lakers roster construction all season, but come playoff time when you have Lebron and Davis you really only need your role players to be good at 1 or two things. The team is filled with guys that would be anchors on other teams but it works. I'm still rooting for more Nuggets magic but I can't see it happening.
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Sep 17, 2020 17:11
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SunshineDanceParty posted:I was critical of the Lakers roster construction all season, but come playoff time when you have Lebron and Davis you really only need your role players to be good at 1 or two things. The team is filled with guys that would be anchors on other teams but it works. I'm still rooting for more Nuggets magic but I can't see it happening. Agreed, I would rather have 2 top 5 players and a bunch of replacement level dudes then a solid deep squad in the WCF. Much as I love the nuggets and have for years and years Lakers in 5-6
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Sep 17, 2020 17:17
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Lockback posted:538 has always had crappy basketball analysis. Yeah i think it's mostly just because it hated Miami, which is reasonable if you're still heavily weighing pre-bubble where they were a five seed who was generally not playing as well as their record. They've looked way better in the bubble but you generally don't really want your model to overreact to small sample sizes, and there isn't really a good way to model a playoff environment that has literally never happened before. Since it thinks the Celtics have by far the best chance to actually make the finals and you can't win it without making it, that gives them a big edge over the western conference teams right now. It definitely has them too high (and tbh I think 538 is kinda crappy in general) but it's also weird that so many people in this thread get into such a tizzy when people say that an objectively good Celtics team is good. MourningView fucked around with this message at 17:32 on Sep 17, 2020 |
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Sep 17, 2020 17:17
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ex post facho posted:jokic on his way to the WCF I am Jokicus!
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Sep 17, 2020 17:18
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The top reply is some classic-SA-level stuff.
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Sep 17, 2020 17:24
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morestuff posted:https://twitter.com/sportsradiopd/status/1306615848451346432?s=20 It's still Hubie, I think? The regular season feels like to was 1000 years ago. Vince has been good in studio type stuff, has he called a game before? He's probably still better at it than everyone they have except Doris but I also would have said that about Chris Webber
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Sep 17, 2020 17:25
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MourningView posted:Yeah it mostly is just because it hates Miami, which is reasonable if you're still heavily weighing pre-bubble where they were a five seed who was generally not playing as well as their record. They've looked way better in the bubble but you generally don't really want your model to overreact to small sample sizes, and there isn't really a good way to model a playoff environment that has literally never happened before. Since it thinks the Celtics have by far the best chance to actually make the finals and you can't win it without making it, that gives them a big edge over the western conference teams right now. I am definitely incredibly biased by anti-Boston sentiment but I think people were mostly baffled by Boston not only being the favorite, but the favorite against the field (prior to the Game 1 loss) Now it's giving the West teams a combined 29% chance of winning the finals
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Sep 17, 2020 17:27
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Remember when Playoff Pee got locked down by Joe Ingles and they still traded a million picks for him
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Sep 17, 2020 17:28
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MourningView posted:It's still Hubie, I think? Oh yeah. Dude was alive for most of the Great Depression so probably a good time to start grooming his replacement
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Sep 17, 2020 17:32
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Away all Goats posted:Remember when Playoff Pee got locked down by Joe Ingles and they still traded a million picks for him Friend I will fondly remember Joe Ingles fearlessly poo poo talking an alleged super star for an entire playoff series for the rest of my days. That series was also funny because Russ somehow got really mad at Ricky Rubio of all people and kept trying to like full court press him and poo poo for no reason in the last two games.
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Sep 17, 2020 17:34
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MourningView posted:Yeah i think it's mostly just because it hated Miami, which is reasonable if you're still heavily weighing pre-bubble where they were a five seed who was generally not playing as well as their record. They've looked way better in the bubble but you generally don't really want your model to overreact to small sample sizes, and there isn't really a good way to model a playoff environment that has literally never happened before. Since it thinks the Celtics have by far the best chance to actually make the finals and you can't win it without making it, that gives them a big edge over the western conference teams right now. It's not just that- their RAPTOR model thinks Miami is 45% to make the finals but 27% to win them, whereas the Lakers are 56% to make the finals but 16% to win them. I have no rational explanation for why it thinks the Heat are better than the Lakers Edit: their model seems self-contradictory?? It gives the Lakers a higher % chance to make the finals than the Celtics (56 vs 55%) but it favors the Lakers only half a point over the Nuggets while the Celtics it gives 2.5 points over the Heat. Nonsense.
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Sep 17, 2020 17:35
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kingcobweb posted:It's not just that- their RAPTOR model thinks Miami is 45% to make the finals but 27% to win them, whereas the Lakers are 56% to make the finals but 16% to win them. I have no rational explanation for why it thinks the Heat are better than the Lakers Okay then yeah that's just loving dumb. Nate Silver is a goober who should go away forever, I don't really know why I bothered trying to defend him lol
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Sep 17, 2020 17:37
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Riven posted:The top reply is some classic-SA-level stuff. I love the double down after someone points out that this is from the Onion: https://twitter.com/Brendelbored/status/1305986492184104961 Honestly can't tell if he's serious or not. It's exquisite.
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Sep 17, 2020 17:38
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he's joking
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Sep 17, 2020 17:40
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It's completely SA to point out the joke as an ironic way to make humor even though it's not funny still is what I think Riven is saying
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Sep 17, 2020 17:45
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MourningView posted:Okay then yeah that's just loving dumb. Nate Silver is a goober who should go away forever, I don't really know why I bothered trying to defend him lol Stat predictions kind of fall apart as well when you factor in that in real life once Denver goes down 3-1 their chances of winning are 100%. Those kinds of models just aren't built to use the RMF (Reverse Momentum Factor, a new advanced stat I just created). Since 538 has the Lakers at 60-40 for the first few games, all the following games should be 70-30 Nuggets. Riven fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Sep 17, 2020 |
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Sep 17, 2020 17:48
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Doltos posted:It's completely SA to point out the joke as an ironic way to make humor even though it's not funny still is what I think Riven is saying Yeah, about the time he starts calling things "cromulent" it's clear that the initial reply was a joke drier than the headline.
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Sep 17, 2020 17:49
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Miami has really turned into a different beast inside the bubble. Dragic playing like an all star again certainly helps.
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Sep 17, 2020 18:03
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MourningView posted:Okay then yeah that's just loving dumb. Nate Silver is a goober who should go away forever, I don't really know why I bothered trying to defend him lol That’s Election Nate for you bb
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Sep 17, 2020 18:26
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I know many of you fantasize about grinding Hubie Brown's spectacles to dust with your jackboot heel, but I'll be sad when he retiresPapes posted:That’s Election Nate for you bb "Trump winning was technically built into the model," I wail as the Signal (my bully) dips my head into the Noise (the toilet) i'm sleep deprived today big boi fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Sep 17, 2020 |
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Sep 17, 2020 18:29
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It could also just be that if the Nuggets win the entire thing, it's an outcome that you'd expect less than once in 100 times. Like, give them 60% odds for each of the final three Clippers games, then 60-40 odds to beat the Lakers and Heat/Celtics. That's still just a 7% chance to win the title, and I don't think anyone disagrees with saying that's generous odds. If it's more like 40% for each of those events, it's about a 1% chance.Riven posted:Yeah, about the time he starts calling things "cromulent" it's clear that the initial reply was a joke drier than the headline. Dang, they got me.
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Sep 17, 2020 18:54
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538 has bad basketball stats; i’ve railed against them before so i’ll spare you all but what it boils down to is trying to create all in one stats are doomed to fail, and ones that try to incorporate regression for a predictive model are even worsePapes posted:That’s Election Nate for you bb i don’t think we should shame anyone for their physical appearance except for nate because jesus christ that loving hairline just shave it dude please
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Sep 17, 2020 19:10
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