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They've been POUNDING Nehls with ads highlighting what a poo poo cop he was, I'm not in his county but I get bleedover, all the anti-Nehls ads are 'this loving freak got fired for tampering with evidence and abusing people, then he covered up abuse as sheriff, gently caress this guy' and the pro-Kulkarni ads are all highlighting his service to the country and family (and mentioning Sam Houston is apparently his great uncle or something). Meanwhile all the anti-Kulkarni ads are generic 'he hates cops and loves communist healthcare' with a hilarious splash of 'he went to a drug filled desert party (I guess Burning Man)' to make him seem ~crazy~
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Oct 20, 2020 02:52
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Riptor posted:Is it true to say the polls in 2016 were wrong or was it just a matter of sentiment having changed dramatically due to the Comey announcement and them being out of date as a result A combination of that and there being an unusually high proportion of "undecideds" that mostly turned out to be Trump voters. A lot of polls were fairly accurate at forecasting Hillary's share of the vote but understated Trump's share. How much of that was due to sentiment breaking towards Trump at the last minute due to Comey is 
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Oct 20, 2020 03:02
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Gotcha. So is it accurate to say that the methodology was more or less fine but the group of people being polled was uniquely atypical for an election
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Oct 20, 2020 03:05
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It’s also worth noting that we have this amazing system called the Electoral College, where you can win but actually lose. For 2016, it meant national polls were mostly good, but state polling was pretty spot and failed to predict the Orange Dawn. Basically, Hillary was doing in better in already safe states, and worse in battlegrounds. Obviously this has caused state polling to take a decent bump up in quality, although it still varies (I hear Ohio is still not great polling wise).
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Oct 20, 2020 03:12
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It was three things: - problems with the polls: both methodological and a lack of good state polls at the end - comedy letter - Hugh undecideds breaking late for trump
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Oct 20, 2020 03:13
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Straight White Shark posted:A combination of that and there being an unusually high proportion of "undecideds" that mostly turned out to be Trump voters. A lot of polls were fairly accurate at forecasting Hillary's share of the vote but understated Trump's share. Right. That's a fundamental flaw of polls, even if their sampling is accurate, they are always just a snapshot of a specific moment in time. A poll taken 3 days before the election can be accurate for that moment, but still fail to predict the final result if enough voters change their mind between the poll and voting. Which is why I'm not particularly worried about the polls being wrong this election. Not only have almost a quarter of voters nationally already voted (and thus are unable to change their votes at the last minute), but polling shows very few undecided or 3rd party voters relative to 2016. The possibility that Trump can persuade enough voters to flip gets smaller every day as more early votes get locked in.
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Oct 20, 2020 03:24
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People forget that just this year we had pretty substantial polling misses for Super Tuesday because there wasn't enough time to capture all of the undecided/late movement to Biden after South Carolina.
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Oct 20, 2020 03:25
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Riptor posted:Gotcha. So is it accurate to say that the methodology was more or less fine but the group of people being polled was uniquely atypical for an election There were a handful of state polls that were really off. Going off of 538's election day numbers, Wisconsin was projected to be 49.6% Clinton - 44.3% Trump. Actual was 46.5% C - 47.2% T. It was a total of a 6% swing. Ohio was pretty bad too, projected 45.8% C - 47.7% T. Actual was 43.6% C - 51.7% T. Then you look at PA, FL, and MI, and the polls weren't too far off for Clinton, generally overestimated her by about 1%. They way underestimated Trump though, by 1.5-3%. So you saw this big swing towards Trump from undecided voters at the last minute, ultimately had like a 3-4% swing in these states. The big difference you see now is that Biden is polling above 50% in a bunch of swing states, where Clinton never really touched 50%. Meanwhile, Trump is polling in the mid-40s. There are way less undecided or 3rd party voters. They have generally moved towards Biden, while Trump's numbers reflect his 2016 results. Here's some examples: PA - Projected 52.7% Biden - 46.6% Trump (48.2% for Trump in 2016) FL - 51.2% Biden - 48.0% Trump (49.0% for Trump in 2016) WI - 52.9% Biden - 46.2% Trump (47.2% 2016) So you're seeing this 1% drop for Trump across the board, but like 6% added to Biden. Now Trump may recover that 1% come actual voting time, but that is nowhere near enough to overcome Biden, obviously since he is over 50%. Even if you discount Biden by 1%, similar to what happened to Clinton, he is still clearing 50% in all three of those states. I think barring an even bigger polling error this time around (which seems hard to fathom), or outright vote rigging/suppression by Republicans, Biden has a pretty firm grasp on this election. He would have to screw something up huge to lose. I hate to be this optimistic because that caused me a lot of grief in 2016 to lose, but the numbers are just way better for Biden than they ever were for Clinton. Bird in a Blender fucked around with this message at 03:30 on Oct 20, 2020 |
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Oct 20, 2020 03:28
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There's always time for things to change, but that's a real and legitimate reason that the 538 model has significant uncertainty the further out the election is. There's always time for something to happen, but every day is one fewer day for that to be it.
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Oct 20, 2020 03:29
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Those PA polls are worrying. Ipsos had Biden at +6/+7 for the Oct 6-11 polls. Ipsos Oct 13-19 has him at +4/+4. Insider Advantage had Biden at +3 last week. If some high quality polls come out soon and have similar results then hoo boy. That's when it's time to start panicking.
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Oct 20, 2020 03:30
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Vorik posted:Those PA polls are worrying. Ipsos had Biden at +6/+7 for the Oct 6-11 polls. Ipsos Oct 13-19 has him at +4/+4. Insider Advantage had Biden at +3 last week. If those polls on average are correct than that sounds fine to me either way.
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Oct 20, 2020 03:37
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You have no control over what happens. Whether you approach the election day with absolute confidence, bland apathy or endless neurosis doesn't loving matter.
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Oct 20, 2020 03:39
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Shammypants posted:If those polls on average are correct than that sounds fine to me either way. The 2016 Scars make everybody spot Trump 5 points, so Biden +4 is actually Trump +1 in their eyes.
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Oct 20, 2020 03:40
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many of us tralf out of trauma
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Oct 20, 2020 03:41
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Shammypants posted:If those polls on average are correct than that sounds fine to me either way. We are still two weeks out from election. That's plenty of time for Biden's lead to keep shrinking. PA is crucial for Biden. If both FL AND PA are in tossup range then it's anybody's night on the 3rd. You also have to brace for possible early win declaration fuckery and bogus fraud claims from Trump and state level GOP. There are a lot of unknowns that could tip this election.
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Oct 20, 2020 03:42
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Vorik posted:We are still two weeks out from election. That's plenty of time for Biden's lead to keep shrinking. PA is crucial for Biden. If both FL AND PA are in tossup range then it's anybody's night on the 3rd. Eric Cantonese posted:Why is it tightening in Pa more than in other states? Is it because the demographics are more favorable to Trump in Pa?
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Oct 20, 2020 03:44
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Vorik posted:Those PA polls are worrying. Ipsos had Biden at +6/+7 for the Oct 6-11 polls. Ipsos Oct 13-19 has him at +4/+4. Insider Advantage had Biden at +3 last week. Why is it tightening in Pa more than in other states? Is it because the demographics are more favorable to Trump in Pa?
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Oct 20, 2020 03:44
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Eric Cantonese posted:Why is it tightening in Pa more than in other states? Is it because the demographics are more favorable to Trump in Pa? We don’t know if it is yet
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Oct 20, 2020 03:51
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Eric Cantonese posted:Why is it tightening in Pa more than in other states? Is it because the demographics are more favorable to Trump in Pa? That's the problem we can't tell for certain since, as has been pointed out before, there is currently a lack of high quality state polling. Right now it just looks like a worrying trend but we won't be able to know for sure until we get results from some better pollsters. Grouchio posted:We already know this and we already know where you're going with this. Your neurosis is going to ruin you more than the actual results. The one thing we've noticed the past few weeks is that there is a discrepancy between national and state polls. That's what I'm going by.
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Oct 20, 2020 03:54
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I'm pretty relaxed because I drove around West Virginia the other day, Jefferson County and nearby. My family counted 14 properties with Trump signs and 3 Biden. In 2016, this place was Trumpland USA. Flags, signs, a 20 foot cutout of Trump. There were 5 times as many Sheriff election signs than Trump signs. To me this is a bellweather for the region of Pennsylvania Trump is counting on for support because if Trump isn't killing it in WV, then he isn't killing it in Pennsyltucky. If you don't believe me and you're close, go for a drive there and see.
Shammypants fucked around with this message at 03:57 on Oct 20, 2020 |
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Oct 20, 2020 03:55
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Vorik posted:That's the problem we can't tell for certain since, as has been pointed out before, there is currently a lack of high quality state polling. Right now it just looks like a worrying trend but we won't be able to know for sure until we get results from some better pollsters. State polls always differ from national polls. What discrepancy are you talking about?
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Oct 20, 2020 03:56
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Subvisual Haze posted:You have no control over what happens. Vote harder!! Don’t let up! That’s how Trump wins he feeds on your certainty!
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Oct 20, 2020 03:56
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E: wrong thread
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Oct 20, 2020 04:03
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did 538 do the percentage chance thing back in 2012? i remember checking literally every morning in my dorm room but for some reason I don't remember the percentage chance being shown, only the poll average. edit: it's possible that i was checking the RCP average morseo. but I knew of 538 and feel like i would have been following it
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Oct 20, 2020 04:10
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Vorik posted:That's the problem we can't tell for certain since, as has been pointed out before, there is currently a lack of high quality state polling. Right now it just looks like a worrying trend but we won't be able to know for sure until we get results from some better pollsters. One data point does not make a trend.
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Oct 20, 2020 04:13
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Deteriorata posted:State polls always differ from national polls. What discrepancy are you talking about? There shouldn't be such a large discrepancy. You have double digit national polls while a bunch of states are in toss up range or in the 3~5 range and trending down. IIRC Nate talked about how the difference could be explained by already blue states turning out even higher number of voters as well as solid red states, which although had a large shift towards biden, they will still remain solid red. Those are two scenarios which could be skewing the national polls and which won't actually mean anything for the electoral college. Vorik fucked around with this message at 04:20 on Oct 20, 2020 |
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Oct 20, 2020 04:13
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https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/dems-in-absolute-panic-as-early-data-shatters-narrative-in-key-states/ This is the new hotness chuds keep pushing. Is it anything of concern?
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Oct 20, 2020 04:14
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https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1318353748339564545 In PA hopefully not too many people forget the secrecy envelopes. And after Barrett is seated next week they will probably just try again and get the extended deadline reversed.
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Oct 20, 2020 04:15
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WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW posted:https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/dems-in-absolute-panic-as-early-data-shatters-narrative-in-key-states/ the campuses thing strikes me as BS. the person seems uh...... partisan asf https://twitter.com/TopTradeGuru1/status/1317956854383783937
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Oct 20, 2020 04:17
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WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW posted:https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/dems-in-absolute-panic-as-early-data-shatters-narrative-in-key-states/ You tell me if an obvious RW propaganda blog should be taken seriously.
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Oct 20, 2020 04:21
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Eh I can't read what the charts say, but it's not to be trusted either waty. Shammypants fucked around with this message at 04:25 on Oct 20, 2020 |
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Oct 20, 2020 04:23
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Vorik posted:There shouldn't be such a large discrepancy. You have double digit national polls while a bunch of states are in toss up range or in the 3~5 range and trending down. IIRC Nate talked about how the difference could be explained by already blue states turning out even higher number of voters as well as solid red states, which although had a large shift towards biden, they will still remain solid red. Those are two scenarios which could be skewing the national polls and which won't actually mean anything for the electoral college. Are you basing this downward trend on literally a single poll?
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Oct 20, 2020 04:38
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Vorik posted:There shouldn't be such a large discrepancy. You have double digit national polls while a bunch of states are in toss up range or in the 3~5 range and trending down. IIRC Nate talked about how the difference could be explained by already blue states turning out even higher number of voters as well as solid red states, which although had a large shift towards biden, they will still remain solid red. Those are two scenarios which could be skewing the national polls and which won't actually mean anything for the electoral college. I'm not sure it makes sense to say "a bunch of states are in toss up range" on the basis of one poll where Biden was winning Pennsylvania by 4 points, but if you want to do that: https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1318008453340811265
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Oct 20, 2020 04:39
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WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW posted:https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/dems-in-absolute-panic-as-early-data-shatters-narrative-in-key-states/ Complete and utter poo poo that defies absolutly everything true about what has been going on in voting so far
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Oct 20, 2020 04:40
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It's unfortunate that we only have a couple of B or greater polls for Pennsylvania the last week but I dunno what to make of Surveymonkey making GBS threads out like 8 polls that have Biden up by 7
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Oct 20, 2020 04:49
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WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW posted:https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/dems-in-absolute-panic-as-early-data-shatters-narrative-in-key-states/ The author probably used inspect element to modify the plots. You can use the same source and they don't look like the version in the article.
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Oct 20, 2020 04:55
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James Garfield posted:The author probably used inspect element to modify the plots. You can use the same source and they don't look like the version in the article. Ok I was right, he definitely hosed with numbers.
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Oct 20, 2020 04:56
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Shammypants posted:I'm pretty relaxed because I drove around West Virginia the other day, Jefferson County and nearby. My family counted 14 properties with Trump signs and 3 Biden. In 2016, this place was Trumpland USA. Flags, signs, a 20 foot cutout of Trump. There were 5 times as many Sheriff election signs than Trump signs. To me this is a bellweather for the region of Pennsylvania Trump is counting on for support because if Trump isn't killing it in WV, then he isn't killing it in Pennsyltucky. If you don't believe me and you're close, go for a drive there and see. Jefferson is one of the less deep-red counties in the state on account of the DC transplants, but it definitely feels different than usual over there and in the rest of eastern WV/western VA.
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Oct 20, 2020 05:09
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With regards to EV counting, Pennsylvania's top election official has stated it should have most of them counted by Friday, 11/6.
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Oct 20, 2020 05:19
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Hopefully Trump gets smashed so badly that PA's delay won't even matter. Having PA be pivotal and undeclared for a week will be very annoying. Even if all signs point to Biden winning, I don't want to hear him whining about PA forever.
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Oct 20, 2020 05:35
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