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space marine todd
Nov 7, 2014



Cygni posted:

Yeeeeeeah, thas not really proven to be the case. The 480/580 was often faster than the 1060 and was consistently significantly cheaper to boot... the 1060 outsold it like 6 to 1. Same with the 5700/5700XT. And the Vega 56 and its comically huge discounts late in life.

Remember that the Ryzen transition in the market took years to really start moving, even when they were offering considerably better value than the Skylake/Kabylake Intel competitors. It took a few years for people to forget the shameful construction cores, and after the driver debacles with Navi and Vega, I think AMD still has a big mountain to climb in GPUs.

And this was before DLSS and Nvidia Broadcast. I am sure some people (maybe even a lot of people!) will switch to AMD due to Ampere stock issues, but Nvidia has some serious value props that AMD can't answer for.

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The Gadfly
Sep 23, 2012
I wonder how much people would be willing to pay for a 20gb version versus how much it is actually worth. I wouldn't be surprised to see nvidia sell them for >$100 plus because they anticipate huge demand. If I were buying one, then about $50 plus would be the max that I would consider spending for what I would get in return.

spunkshui
Oct 5, 2011



redreader posted:

I just realised one possibility as to why this is being kept very secret: Stock prices. If people find out (I am not saying this is the case, but my guess is, this IS the case) that Nvidia has massive demand and very low supply, that they had the market in the palm of their hand and hosed it up massively and only sold ? 10k or 20k? 3080's and 1k 3090's, since the expected sales and profits are really high, the stock price would tank, "didn't meet expected earnings!". They're going to have to give a q3 earnings at some point and they'll have to tell the truth then, but they'd rather it was kept secret for now.

Again, I may be wrong but time will tell. I don't have any nvidia stock and I don't follow their announcements and all that, but yeah it could be a thing that is happening. And of course they'd be threatening the board manufacturers with 'don't leak numbers or you'll get on the poo poo list, we'll give you the worst-binned chips we currently reserve for ZOTAC from now on' (the zotac bit was a joke)

Its this.

Nvidia wanted TSMC this year because of next gen consoles and AMD GPU this year.

TSMC sold their capacity and/or didn’t like the numbers talk with Nvidia, so Nvidia went with Samsung this year.

Nvidia has already announced 2021 they will be back at TSMC and I think we all know why.

Cygni posted:

Yeeeeeeah, thas not really proven to be the case. The 480/580 was often faster than the 1060 and was consistently significantly cheaper to boot... the 1060 outsold it like 6 to 1. Same with the 5700/5700XT. And the Vega 56 and its comically huge discounts late in life.

Remember that the Ryzen transition in the market took years to really start moving, even when they were offering considerably better value than the Skylake/Kabylake Intel competitors. It took a few years for people to forget the shameful construction cores, and after the driver debacles with Navi and Vega, I think AMD still has a big mountain to climb in GPUs.

Cant buy what doesn’t exist.

Zero VGS
Aug 16, 2002
ASK ME ABOUT HOW HUMAN LIVES THAT MADE VIDEO GAME CONTROLLERS ARE WORTH MORE
Lipstick Apathy

spunkshui posted:

AND will absolutely sell a gently caress ton of cards if they have supply and its good.

People had no problem switching from intel gaming cpus to AMD.

There's a lot of Joe Basics who will walk into Microcenter and not really care, but anyone who does cursory research into expensive poo poo they're buying is going to notice AMD does have DLSS which is a big one. For me I'm pretty much locked out from AMD because I rely on Moonlight Game Streaming to play MtG Arena on my phone, and I have a G-Sync 21:9 monitor at home. Nvidia has been smart about packing in a lot of critical features.

For CPU sure, I'm probably gonna switch to Ryzen 3 for the efficiency improvements.

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

The Gadfly posted:

I wonder how much people would be willing to pay for a 20gb version versus how much it is actually worth. I wouldn't be surprised to see nvidia sell them for >$100 plus because they anticipate huge demand. If I were buying one, then about $50 plus would be the max that I would consider spending for what I would get in return.

It'll more realistically be +$200, minimum. GDDR6X isn't cheap; no one's sure exactly how expensive it is, but GDDR6@14Gbps was ~$11.50/GB from Micron the last time I saw a sales sheet. So $115 just for GDDR6, plus some premium above that for being 6X. +$200 would thus probably be close to selling it at-cost, once you add in the extra costs required for altered production lines, packaging, etc.

Which is basically to say that it's highly unlikely to be a price-wise purchase unless you like keeping your cards for 5+ years. And even then, throwing the $200 into the stock market for 5 years and using that to help fund a replacement would probably get you better performance anyhow.

spunkshui
Oct 5, 2011



Zero VGS posted:

There's a lot of Joe Basics who will walk into Microcenter and not really care, but anyone who does cursory research into expensive poo poo they're buying is going to notice AMD does have DLSS which is a big one. For me I'm pretty much locked out from AMD because I rely on Moonlight Game Streaming to play MtG Arena on my phone, and I have a G-Sync 21:9 monitor at home. Nvidia has been smart about packing in a lot of critical features.

For CPU sure, I'm probably gonna switch to Ryzen 3 for the efficiency improvements.

G-Sync is doing a depressingly good job of locking me in too. Didnt expect Nvidia to pull something like this to buy time.

5ghz overclocks strapped to derpy midrange cards from 2016 has already been annoying for months of pandemic gaming.

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know
It's funny, in the weeks/months before launch all we had were twitter rumors and lovely WCCFTech articles.

Now it's like a month AFTER launch and if anything there are even more ridiculous rumors along with a new class of Illuminati-did-it level economic and supply theories.

"I hear Saudi Arabia bought half the supply and are scalping them all on ebay bro, but slowly, to keep prices high"

"My cousin works at Plantronics and their audio supplier said Nvidia sold only 40 graphics cards so far"


Cygni posted:

Yeeeeeeah, thas not really proven to be the case. The 480/580 was often faster than the 1060 and was consistently significantly cheaper to boot... the 1060 outsold it like 6 to 1. Same with the 5700/5700XT. And the Vega 56 and its comically huge discounts late in life.

Remember that the Ryzen transition in the market took years to really start moving, even when they were offering considerably better value than the Skylake/Kabylake Intel competitors. It took a few years for people to forget the shameful construction cores, and after the driver debacles with Navi and Vega, I think AMD still has a big mountain to climb in GPUs.

For me it's just software. Nvidia's biggest software bets have been in development for years and are just now paying off... and that's with a giant budget and corporate focus.

If AMD can pull a rabbit out of its hat, and have great drivers, a DLSS competitor sometime soon or at least a very clear demonstration of what that solution will be and a timeline (along with hopefully some other value adds to compete with things like Broadcast), then good on them, but I'm not touching their stack until they can work all of this out.

People can say what they want about DLSS not being adopted on everything but I'll say one thing for sure: when people are playing CP2077 and getting a fraction of the frames they could be, it's going to feel like poo poo no matter what.

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

spunkshui posted:

Nvidia has already announced 2021 they will be back at TSMC and I think we all know why.

It'll be real interesting to see if it's actually crappy Samsung yields or if it's just that running on 7NP they can shave 50W off the package and be able to push clocks higher.

We have no direct evidence that Samsung yields are actually the bottleneck--we're just guessing, and while it's not an insane guess, it's still just a guess. GDDR6X at this point could just as easily be the bottleneck (and arguably is more likely to be the issue, since Samsung at least had 8nm as a more or less proven process for a bit, while GDDR6X is 100% brand new with Ampere).

We do have pretty direct evidence that Ampere on 8nm is running balls to the wall with basically no real room to stretch further. That alone would justify a move to TSMC for the 3080Ti/Super, assuming that porting the designs can be done economically.

repiv
Aug 13, 2009

https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/news/october-2020-rtx-blockbuster-and-indie-game-update/

DLSS coming to a bunch of smaller titles soon

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008


WoW is getting ray tracing? Huh?

exquisite tea
Apr 21, 2007

Carly shook her glass, willing the ice to melt. "You still haven't told me what the mission is."

She leaned forward. "We are going to assassinate the bad men of Hollywood."


I was playing WoW when Legion was the newest expansion and it still managed to stress my 980ti at 1440p, the game is far more demanding than you'd think for something that came out 16 years ago.

repiv
Aug 13, 2009

hobbesmaster posted:

WoW is getting ray tracing? Huh?

it's pretty underwhelming from the beta comparisons i saw, you get softer shadows but it mostly looks better by comparison because their traditional shadowmapping makes no attempt to soften shadows at all

still the shadows are a bit more detailed so it's an option if you have gpu power to spare i guess

spunkshui
Oct 5, 2011



exquisite tea posted:

I was playing WoW when Legion was the newest expansion and it still managed to stress my 980ti at 1440p, the game is far more demanding than you'd think for something that came out 16 years ago.

Wow his the cpu very very hard in raids and battlegrounds. Are you sure it was the 980ti that was crying?

Its why your FPS tanks in major cities.

Daedalus1134
Sep 14, 2005

They see me rollin'


Finally got my Dell delay confirmation, all the way out to January 12th. RIP.

exquisite tea
Apr 21, 2007

Carly shook her glass, willing the ice to melt. "You still haven't told me what the mission is."

She leaned forward. "We are going to assassinate the bad men of Hollywood."


Sure just imagine I said the thing I meant to say!

VorpalFish
Mar 22, 2007
reasonably awesometm

Daedalus1134 posted:

Finally got my Dell delay confirmation, all the way out to January 12th. RIP.

Holy poo poo, that's awhile. If it makes you feel any better those of us that got delayed to dates in November will probably be delayed again (and again).

Fantastic Foreskin
Jan 6, 2013

A golden helix streaked skyward from the Helvault. A thunderous explosion shattered the silver monolith and Avacyn emerged, free from her prison at last.

VorpalFish posted:

You will eventually be able to buy the gpus....

You can buy the jpgs.

VorpalFish
Mar 22, 2007
reasonably awesometm

Some Goon posted:

You can buy the jpgs.

I would be willing to bet that you will be able to walk into a store and buy 5 3080s at retail before a star citizen build is released that they don't call an alpha or beta. Interested?

The Gadfly
Sep 23, 2012

DrDork posted:

It'll more realistically be +$200, minimum. GDDR6X isn't cheap; no one's sure exactly how expensive it is, but GDDR6@14Gbps was ~$11.50/GB from Micron the last time I saw a sales sheet. So $115 just for GDDR6, plus some premium above that for being 6X. +$200 would thus probably be close to selling it at-cost, once you add in the extra costs required for altered production lines, packaging, etc.

Which is basically to say that it's highly unlikely to be a price-wise purchase unless you like keeping your cards for 5+ years. And even then, throwing the $200 into the stock market for 5 years and using that to help fund a replacement would probably get you better performance anyhow.

:stonklol:

Yeah that just doesn't seem worth it to me. The only way I would spend $200 more for it would be if my use case frequently needs more than 10gb of vram. I think it would only be needed for a small fraction of games, or heavy video editing tasks.

It still might be a better value proposition than a 3090 though.

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know
Wow so I just tried ray traced shadows in WoW after seeing people talk about it.

The good news:

It's in there, and it makes a difference I guess

The bad news:

With a 3090 and a 5k2k ultrawide my FPS dropped from 65 fps to 40 fps in Orgrimmar with ray traced shadows on high (max settings, resolution scale 125%). That's a rough estimate, it's hard to get a good read because there's so many characters running around and whatnot so there's fluctuations but that's about what I saw.

The actual difference visually is... uh... not much at all. Maybe it makes a bigger difference in actual Shadowlands? You can see the difference for sure, if you toggle it on and off, the problem is, the shadows aren't necessarily way better, just slightly improved and different. The art style itself just doesn't really depend on accurate shadows.

Pretty bad so far. Also why do something borderline unneeded like ray traced shadows instead of DLSS.... I have a lot of questions about why this was even added.

Taima fucked around with this message at 00:01 on Oct 21, 2020

Fauxtool
Oct 21, 2008

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Taima posted:

Wow so I just tried ray traced shadows in WoW after seeing people talk about it.

The good news:

It's in there, and it makes a difference I guess

The bad news:

With a 3090 and a 5k2k ultrawide my FPS dropped from 70 fps to 40 fps in Orgrimmar with ray traced shadows on high (max settings, resolution scale 125%).

The actual difference visually is... uh... not much at all. Maybe it makes a bigger difference in actual Shadowlands?

Pretty bad so far. Also why do something borderline unneeded like ray traced shadows instead of DLSS.... I have a lot of questions about why this was even added.

yeah the shadows are for you know, the shadowlands. Wow is still running on its ancient piece of poo poo engine. Anything new is added on top and will hinder performance.

spunkshui
Oct 5, 2011



People posting “fake launch” on the nvidia subreddit in a thread with 14000 comments after seeing the dell news.

Nvidia started removing comments just now.

Then they locked it lol

https://reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/j7qgw3/rtx_3080_3090_launch_thread_part_5/

Totally a demand problem, nothing to see here.

repiv
Aug 13, 2009

Taima posted:

Pretty bad so far. Also why do something borderline unneeded like ray traced shadows instead of DLSS.... I have a lot of questions about why this was even added.

Does WoW still not have TAA? If so then adding DLSS would potentially be a lot of work compared to other games

Dunno why they went with shadows though

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know

Fauxtool posted:

yeah the shadows are for you know, the shadowlands. Wow is still running on its ancient piece of poo poo engine. Anything new is added on top and will hinder performance.

I uh, is that a joke? Because it's a good joke but as far as I can tell the ray tracing is working globally. You can see the difference on a variety of situations, it's just not very compelling. Who knows though, maybe the architecture in Shadowlands casts more shadows or something.


repiv posted:

Does WoW still not have TAA? If so then adding DLSS would potentially be a lot of work compared to other games

Dunno why they went with shadows though

I don't think it does.

spunkshui
Oct 5, 2011



“If someone else got a card, be happy for them. Being a dick and downvoting them is dumb. Jealousy is stupid for a product that's not limited. Change your point of view -- for every person who got their card, that's 1 less person competing with you. Everyone who wants one will get one. Food for thought.”

“Product thats not limited”

Rusty
Sep 28, 2001
Dinosaur Gum

spunkshui posted:

People posting “fake launch” on the nvidia subreddit in a thread with 14000 comments after seeing the dell news.

Nvidia started removing comments just now.

Then they locked it lol

https://reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/j7qgw3/rtx_3080_3090_launch_thread_part_5/

Totally a demand problem, nothing to see here.
Pretty sure this is all community run and not affiliated with nvidia at all.

I mean, it's clearly a demand problem, more people want them than they can produce. I think the issue is nvidia should just be more transparent. There is definitely unprecedented demand for tech right now but no one will believe that if you're not transparent on what your supply is. It's not like nVidia doesn't want the sales, I'm sure they are doing everything they can.

MikeC
Jul 19, 2004
BITCH ASS NARC

repiv posted:

Does WoW still not have TAA? If so then adding DLSS would potentially be a lot of work compared to other games

Dunno why they went with shadows though

That's a negative. From the videos I saw, it literally does nothing, especially from the behind-overhead view that 99% of gameplay takes place in. As in if you didn't tell me whether it was on or off, I couldn't tell the difference.

Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

TEAM NVIDIA:
FORUM POLICE

spunkshui posted:

People posting “fake launch” on the nvidia subreddit in a thread with 14000 comments after seeing the dell news.

Nvidia started removing comments just now.

Then they locked it lol

https://reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/j7qgw3/rtx_3080_3090_launch_thread_part_5/

Totally a demand problem, nothing to see here.

They moved to a new megathread, they close the old ones when they’re done. Pretty standard since the reddit format doesn’t work well for ongoing discussions, you just end up with a couple upvoted posts at the top and all the new comments get stuck in new with nobody ever seeing them or responding to them.

https://reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/jf0rkb/rtx_3080_3090_launch_thread_part_6/

It’s really unfortunate that you were unable to :justpost: for five minutes, it strains the conscience to think of all the invigorating content that was lost to time

Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Oct 21, 2020

Fauxtool
Oct 21, 2008

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Taima posted:

I uh, is that a joke? Because it's a good joke but as far as I can tell the ray tracing is working globally. You can see the difference on a variety of situations, it's just not very compelling. Who knows though, maybe the architecture in Shadowlands casts more shadows or something.

I answered exactly the question you asked, "Maybe it makes a bigger difference in actual Shadowlands?"

You said you couldnt tell a difference in Org. Thats because the RTX shadows arent implemented well anywhere but the new zones in shadowlands. The lighting in most old zones is not nearly as dynamic and with a lot fewer light sources.

Sorry I forgot who I was dealing with and should not have engaged with "Mr thinks Taiwan is kinda sorta actually belongs to China."

spunkshui
Oct 5, 2011



Rusty posted:

Pretty sure this is all community run and not affiliated with nvidia at all.

I mean, it's clearly a demand problem, more people want them than they can produce. I think the issue is nvidia should just be more transparent. There is definitely unprecedented demand for tech right now but no one will believe that if you're not transparent on what your supply is. It's not like nVidia doesn't want the sales, I'm sure they are doing everything they can.

Pretty sure its still locked. Pretty fast locking for a chill community space.

Its a supply problem because of Samsung.

10-15 cards to each of microcenter’s whopping 25 stores across America cant be normal.

Rusty
Sep 28, 2001
Dinosaur Gum

spunkshui posted:

Pretty sure its still locked. Pretty fast locking for a chill community space.
I don't know what this means, all I was saying was nvidia doesn't run that subreddit. If you want the non locked thread, look a couple posts up.

https://reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/jf0rkb/rtx_3080_3090_launch_thread_part_6/

spunkshui
Oct 5, 2011



Paul MaudDib posted:

They moved to a new megathread, they close the old ones when they’re done.

https://reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/jf0rkb/rtx_3080_3090_launch_thread_part_6/

Standard “11 day” thread cycle, of course.

Hackan Slash
May 31, 2007
Hit it until it's not a problem anymore

Rusty posted:

I mean, it's clearly a demand problem, more people want them than they can produce. I think the issue is nvidia should just be more transparent. There is definitely unprecedented demand for tech right now but no one will believe that if you're not transparent on what your supply is. It's not like nVidia doesn't want the sales, I'm sure they are doing everything they can.

Sure there's a large demand, but all indications are that there's no supply.

The biggest tell is that that EU store that posted they'd received 7%? of the 3080's ordered across all suppliers.

Anecdotally, the three Microcenters in the small hamlet of NYC got thirteen 3080's combined on launch day.

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know

Fauxtool posted:

I answered exactly the question you asked, "Maybe it makes a bigger difference in actual Shadowlands?"

You said you couldnt tell a difference in Org. Thats because the RTX shadows arent implemented well anywhere but the new zones in shadowlands. The lighting in most old zones is not nearly as dynamic and with a lot fewer light sources.

Sorry I forgot who I was dealing with and should not have engaged with "Mr thinks Taiwan is kinda sorta actually belongs to China."

I don’t get why you’re mad but ok? I wasn’t poking fun, I was just trying to understand.

VorpalFish
Mar 22, 2007
reasonably awesometm

spunkshui posted:

Pretty sure its still locked. Pretty fast locking for a chill community space.

Its a supply problem because of Samsung.

10-15 cards to each of microcenter’s whopping 25 stores across America cant be normal.

Or it's a demand problem because of a pandemic that has a lot of tech workers doing very well desperate for an outlet buying tech at absolutely unprecedented rates combined with the biggest launch price:performance increase we've seen since pascal.

Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

TEAM NVIDIA:
FORUM POLICE

spunkshui posted:

Standard “11 day” thread cycle, of course.

yes

Rusty
Sep 28, 2001
Dinosaur Gum

Hackan Slash posted:

Sure there's a large demand, but all indications are that there's no supply.

The biggest tell is that that EU store that posted they'd received 7%? of the 3080's ordered across all suppliers.

Anecdotally, the three Microcenters in the small hamlet of NYC got thirteen 3080's combined on launch day.
But what if the orders are 90% higher than expected?

Pivo
Aug 20, 2004


spunkshui posted:

Its a supply problem because of Samsung

why does everyone keep repeating this?

there is zero evidence at all that it's a yield problem on the GPU dies. there are tons of things that could be constraining supply. even if there were no constraints and it is just a matter of unprecedented demand, you can't spend millions in capital to boost production for a peak lasting a quarter or two. it's not like you can just spin up fabs and assembly overnight and you wouldn't do it even if you could.

threads get stupid when speculation starts getting repeated as fact.

spunkshui
Oct 5, 2011




Welp.

Did not see that coming.

Ill take off the tinfoil hat.

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pzy
Feb 20, 2004

Da Boom!
Hello I have a story:

I have a good friend who can and does spend a lot of money on his gaming passion, and sometimes I buy his old hardware.

Somehow he ended up with 2 3090s, and since SLI is a joke even when your gaming budget is unlimited, he sold me his Founders edition. I believe the second one is an EVGA.

Basically he took the Founders edition out of the box, saw it wouldn't line up for SLI, and then stuck it in another box to ship to me along with some other things.

Perhaps you can guess the problem... his installed 3090 uses regular ATX power connectors, but the Founders edition uses the new smaller 12-pin connector.

He is not one to keep packaging and boxes around, so the adapter is long gone, along with the box.

Here I sit with an art piece 3090 until a small company in the UK can build and ship me the cable I need to power it.

Feel bad for me etc

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