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Seven Hundred Bee posted:If you want a real treat read the primary threads from 2 years ago. A large segment of this forums felt Bernie had it in the bag in early 2019, and even six months ago people were 100% convinced that Biden would gaffe himself into another loss, Trump would pull it together, etc. It's me, I'm the goon with terrible politcal instincts who thought Hillary would win in 16, Bernie would win the nomination in 20 and Corbyn would win in 19. Basically whoever I think is gonna win, won't. Doubly fun that this actually negates my previous post,  Man, what a self own of a snype this was
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Oct 31, 2020 02:51
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:If you want a real treat read the primary threads from 2 years ago. A large segment of this forums felt Bernie had it in the bag in early 2019, and even six months ago people were 100% convinced that Biden would gaffe himself into another loss, Trump would pull it together, etc. Yeah, but then we'd have to go back and laugh at posters who supported Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, etc, this primary - or, even worse, supported Clinton during 2016's primary.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:52
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Nessus posted:unless she convinced some of the others to retire; RBG probably would not Wasn't RBG specifically hoping Hillary would be the one to replace her? Or is that just apocrypha?
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Oct 31, 2020 02:54
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Nessus posted:It's an interesting exercise with considering the SCOTUS lineup. Of course Hillary would have only gotten one justice for sure, unless she convinced some of the others to retire; RBG probably would not but Breyer might. Kennedy would still be there, of course. The response would have been better but they'd scream even louder about every death even if it's "only" 100,000 while also screaming the pandemic is fake and masks feminize you by forcing you to breathe in your own estrogen. Like 1 person died if ebola in 2014 and they didn't shut up about it for months. But yeah I guess there'd be a liberal court that would uphold her pandemic response at least until Ginsburg died, if she didn't convince her to retire. Unless we got the hellworld where Hillary won but we still lost the senate. Idk I think it would have been real bad regardless.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:55
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:If you want a real treat read the primary threads from 2 years ago. A large segment of this forums felt Bernie had it in the bag in early 2019, and even six months ago people were 100% convinced that Biden would gaffe himself into another loss, Trump would pull it together, etc. That's basically what every single article that I linked above talking about electability is. It's just showing how bad peoples political instincts are.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:56
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:If you want a real treat read the primary threads from 2 years ago. A large segment of this forums felt Bernie had it in the bag in early 2019, and even six months ago people were 100% convinced that Biden would gaffe himself into another loss, Trump would pull it together, etc.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:56
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I remember a couple days before reading a collection of doomposts taken from /pol/ and cackling like a madman. Then election day happened, and I was inflicted with so much dread for the whole rest of that week that loving /pol/'s candidate won.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:56
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Grondoth posted:Bernie's got an unprecedented ground game! There's no way he won't make out like a bandit on Super Tuesday, Biden doesn't even have OFFICES in some of those states! Someone told me a ground game was worth 3 points on its own so I was shocked too.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:56
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The Secret Service would've had to stop a lot of assassination attempts from radicalized neo-Nazis who listened to Trump News 24/7.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:56
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:He's losing 2-4% of Latino voters depending on the state and voter composition (he's actually improving on Clinton's margins in Florida depending on the poll) and is running 10% higher in much larger demographics. According to the latest Telemundo poll, it's 48 Biden, 43 Trump in Florida, whereas Clinton had 62% four years ago. Biden may still win Florida (I give it 50-50, just purely as a gut check), but it's probably not going to be because his outreach to Latinos has been particularly successful. \/\/\/  \/\/\/
Majorian fucked around with this message at 03:01 on Oct 31, 2020 |
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Oct 31, 2020 02:58
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I mean the real answer to 'Biden is lagging in minority votes' is 'his coalition is massively white and suburban, which is bad longterm but for this election is very good because that was Trump's coalition too'.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:58
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VitalSigns posted:Bernie can still win Goons were arguing this when polls showed Bernie about to get dumpstered 70-30 in Florida
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Oct 31, 2020 02:58
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BTW the biggest self-own in history were the goons who convinced themselves Ron Paul would steal the Republican nomination through convention shenanigans to the point where many of them traveled to the convention.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:59
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....Remind me, was Clint Eastwood And The Chair part of the 2012 RNC? or 2016?
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Oct 31, 2020 02:59
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Spiritus Nox posted:....Remind me, was Clint Eastwood And The Chair part of the 2012 RNC? or 2016? 2012, because Obama was invisible in the chair.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:00
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:BTW the biggest self-own in history were the goons who convinced themselves Ron Paul would steal the Republican nomination through convention shenanigans to the point where many of them traveled to the convention. No, the biggest self-own is quote:Yet searing, anonymously sourced quotes from Obama kept appearing through the race. One Democrat who spoke to Obama recalled the former president warning, “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to gently caress things up.” Speaking of his own waning understanding of today’s Democratic electorate, especially in Iowa, Obama told one 2020 candidate: “And you know who really doesn’t have it? Joe Biden.” The same beliefs leading him to apparently quietly dumpster Biden in lieu of his preferred heir, Hillary Clinton! 
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Oct 31, 2020 03:01
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I mean, Biden's gonna likely do dogshit numbers for minority voters, which will be funny after all the "VOTE LIKE BLACK WOMEN" poo poo white libs did, but he just kinda doesn't give a poo poo about that those voters because his whole thing has been poaching trump's very white suburban demo. Joe Biden: I'm starting to think this guy may not give a poo poo about PoC! Seven Hundred Bee posted:BTW the biggest self-own in history were the goons who convinced themselves Ron Paul would steal the Republican nomination through convention shenanigans to the point where many of them traveled to the convention. I suddenly feel less like a chump for being a generic hillaryman in 2016 then.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:03
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Spiritus Nox posted:....Remind me, was Clint Eastwood And The Chair part of the 2012 RNC? or 2016? 2012. It replaced Trump's sketch where he did an Apprentice bit with an Obama impersonator! The SEEDS were THERE
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Oct 31, 2020 03:04
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Grondoth posted:2012. It replaced Trump's sketch where he did an Apprentice bit with an Obama impersonator! Just think, we could have avoided all of this if they had just let Trump be unfunny.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:05
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:The Secret Service would've had to stop a lot of assassination attempts from radicalized neo-Nazis who listened to Trump News 24/7. I wonder if he would've run again. If his candidacy had shattered the GOP probably not, but turns out that was never going to happen at least against Hillary, and at worst he would have still outperformed Romney, so I could see him winning the GOP primary again after he only barely lost due to MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD
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Oct 31, 2020 03:06
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Majorian posted:Yeah, but then we'd have to go back and laugh at posters who supported Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, etc, this primary - or, even worse, supported Clinton during 2016's primary. As far as I can remember only a handful of SA posters came out strongly for any non-Bernie candidate in the primaries. Warren had some folks early on but once it looked like she was taking votes from Bernie the tide turned aganst her. Like, I was team Buttigieg but lord knows I wasn't going to say that here, because people pounced on everything he or his supporters said and did like it was a personal affront to their guy.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:08
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oh and I'm just throwing this out there, as a campaign strategy/image thing: obama's quirky  stuff that many of us found clever and charming at the time probably was really grating to the people who voted for him hoping they'd be able to, say, not be foreclosed on, who were left eating sand on a $7.25/hr job working 39 hours a week at the piggly wiggly
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Oct 31, 2020 03:08
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Youth Decay posted:As far as I can remember only a handful of SA posters came out strongly for any non-Bernie candidate in the primaries. Warren had some folks early on but once it looked like she was taking votes from Bernie the tide turned aganst her. Like, I was team Buttigieg but lord knows I wasn't going to say that here, because people pounced on everything he or his supporters said and did like it was a personal affront to their guy. I was very strongly pro-Warren. But I think she'd have had more trouble than Biden, and this year I really just wanted any Dem to win  .One of my siblings was hardcore Klobuchar, and my parents were both strong Biden.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:09
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VitalSigns posted:I wonder if he would've run again. I'm not counting out a 2024 run from Trump at this point.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:11
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A buddy of mine from when I worked at an oil company you've heard of was despairing when Biden won the nomination. "They just gave Trump 4 more years.", and I believed him. I mean in January when Covid started trickling in, I despaired, as all Trump had to do to win by 10 was talk about how great our serious and competent pandemic response team is, and bask in the "rally around the flag" effect like W did after 9/11. It's amazing how much he's lit himself on fire every opportunity he had. bobjr posted:I'm not counting out a 2024 run from Trump at this point. This is going to be spectacular if he loses Texas. TwoQuestions fucked around with this message at 03:16 on Oct 31, 2020 |
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Oct 31, 2020 03:11
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Youth Decay posted:As far as I can remember only a handful of SA posters came out strongly for any non-Bernie candidate in the primaries. Warren had some folks early on but once it looked like she was taking votes from Bernie the tide turned aganst her. Like, I was team Buttigieg but lord knows I wasn't going to say that here, because people pounced on everything he or his supporters said and did like it was a personal affront to their guy.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:11
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TwoQuestions posted:A buddy of mine from when I worked at an oil company you've heard of was despairing when Biden won the nomination. "They just gave Trump 4 more years.", and I believed him. a deadly disease from CHYYYYYNA was the ultimate softball however, we're talking mr. "it's a bible" here
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Oct 31, 2020 03:12
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Biden is at 90% chance to win the EC on 538 which I believe is also the typical threshold to switch a candidate from "favored" to "clearly favored"
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Oct 31, 2020 03:12
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Fojar38 posted:There is basically no credible Numbers Person who is bullish on Trump at this point, and it's largely pundits that are the ones suggesting a horse race. This is a stark contrast to 2016, where the pundits were sitting back waiting for Clinton to cruise to victory while the Numbers People were blowing airhorns about the approaching fucktrain On Earth-2, President Hillary Clinton is tied with Ted Cruz in New York and Washington State, but over at Reverse Something Awful, tons of people are utterly convinced she will pull a rabbit out of her hat just like in 2016.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:13
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The primaries really were crazy this year. Bernie won the first three states (if you include Iowa shenanigans) and seemed to have it on lock. I even remember some poll that had him surging ahead of Biden in South Carolina. Of course, had Bernie won, it would indeed be a very different election. He would not be getting massive Super PAC donations for one (like Bloomberg dumping $100m into Florida), and how would he handle those $27 donations from people who are now jobless due to COVID? Also there’s no way he would have done the smart thing that Biden has done the past few months, which is to just lay low and let Trump ruin his own chances.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:13
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nah posted:The primaries really were crazy this year. Bernie won the first three states (if you include Iowa shenanigans) and seemed to have it on lock. I even remember some poll that had him surging ahead of Biden in South Carolina. Sanders would have had trouble with Biden's secret powerful message
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Oct 31, 2020 03:15
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bobjr posted:I'm not counting out a 2024 run from Trump at this point. You shouldn't, although him losing is going to be a big blow to his profile. Fascists tend to do well as long as they're winning. When that stops, they often start hemorrhaging support.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:15
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sexpig by night posted:I mean the real answer to 'Biden is lagging in minority votes' is 'his coalition is massively white and suburban, which is bad longterm but for this election is very good because that was Trump's coalition too'. It may not be the worst thing. With the GOP heading more into qanon territory, and dumb/boring fascists like Cotton, the Democrats can probably hold on to a lot of the suburban vote. Trumps biggest gain with Hispanics is among younger voters, which is concerning, but the Hispanic vote will probably start to mirror the white vote eventually, and it had to start somewhere.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:16
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TheOneAndOnlyT posted:Speaking of 2015-16, does anyone remember how D&D was feeling around this time in 2016? I know there were plenty of people outside the forums sounding alarm bells, but I honestly don't even remember what it was like on the forums. There was a period of "this is in the bag" arrogance after the Access Hollywood tape, but things did get pretty tense after Comeygate. In the span of two weeks people went from talking about blue Texas and Georgia like we're doing now to arzying the gently caress out watching Hillary's lead evaporate until it was just hanging on to the blue wall states for dear life. I remember seeing the exit poll data from 2016, black turnout and youth turnout were bad, yet polls said everything was fine. The assumption was that unaffiliated women were making up the difference, and then they totally weren't. People kept finding good data points to cope until it became quite clear on election night that the lid to the handbasket was closing. I'm still cautious now because I think counting on unaffiliated white suburban seniors to vote democratic when they say they will is as naive as counting on young voters to vote at all when they say they will. I'm not convinced that it's just them hating Hillary. They rejected Gore, Kerry, and Obama as well. From where I'm sitting, it is totally logical to try to look for a candidate that motivates young voters and minorities the same way, because that is what has worked. Biden bucks that trend but the pandemic makes things weird. Fumbling a major national crisis is the main way one-term presidents are made, and that is one of the few things historically that can get those flaky fuckers to vote for a democrat.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:18
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Final Iowa poll by Selzer(!) dropping tomorrow at 6:30pm Central. I feel like all the TX/FL/PA brouhaha has taken the spotlight away from some very promising polls for Greenfield in the Senate Race and Biden. Those EVs could be crucial. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/iowa/ https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1322221986194620417?s=20 MaoistBanker fucked around with this message at 03:24 on Oct 31, 2020 |
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Oct 31, 2020 03:19
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TyrantWD posted:It may not be the worst thing. With the GOP heading more into qanon territory, and dumb/boring fascists like Cotton, the Democrats can probably hold on to a lot of the suburban vote. Nah man as soon as they get someone who can keep from screaming a racial slur for ten minutes the suburban whites will go for them, just like they usually do, the dems need to energize non-voters, especially people of color.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:19
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TyrantWD posted:It may not be the worst thing. With the GOP heading more into qanon territory, and dumb/boring fascists like Cotton, the Democrats can probably hold on to a lot of the suburban vote. I'm curious what the gender split is with Hispanics. There's been a general trend worldwide where the male and female vote are diverging significantly.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:22
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TyrantWD posted:It may not be the worst thing. With the GOP heading more into qanon territory, and dumb/boring fascists like Cotton, the Democrats can probably hold on to a lot of the suburban vote. I think the Dems should fight for underprivileged minorities (including Latinos) because it's the right thing to do and also because it is a smart electoral strategy.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:24
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existential anger posted:I'm curious what the gender split is with Hispanics. There's been a general trend worldwide where the male and female vote are diverging significantly. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/briefing/pope-francis-russia-iran-purdue.html quote:It’s not just the public polls. Recent private polls conducted by political campaigns are filled with bad news for President Trump. He is doing eight to 10 percentage points worse in many congressional districts than he did in 2016, Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report writes.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:24
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existential anger posted:I'm curious what the gender split is with Hispanics. There's been a general trend worldwide where the male and female vote are diverging significantly. I remember someone putting up a poll earlier in the thread that suggested that the split was very much based on gender and young males are the portion of minorities that Trump is cutting into the most. Toxic masculinity is extremely potent brain poison
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Oct 31, 2020 03:25
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