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John Wick of Dogs posted:
You say that after almost rolling “666” in just five rolls?? 
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Nov 2, 2020 18:38
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I’m on the edge of a gas line And there’ll be no more fracking for you.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:38
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Boris Galerkin posted:I asked if those votes mattered in the sense of whether that district was a safe one or not. A district where 99% people vote Democratic and it’s a shoe-in for the democratic candidate can “afford” to have 100k votes tossed out. Not saying that it should happen and of course I understand there are down ballot repercussions. Biden has a chance at winning Texas. If he does it will be very close. These 100k votes could absolutely make the difference in who wins Texas. For the local races the district leans heavily dem so it would likely have less effect. Edit: To be clear, who wins Texas (and other states within those states) is based on a popular vote. It's not like a mini-electoral college where each district gets one elector or whatever. This definitely could make a big difference. D-Pad fucked around with this message at 18:44 on Nov 2, 2020 |
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Nov 2, 2020 18:42
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CommieGIR posted:Yes. They won't stop him going anywhere he wants. Well USSS wouldn’t be handling his protection anymore, it would likely be either the CIA or NSA taking over and it would be a purely covert operation. Like I have said before there are plenty of people and/or nation states that would love to kill him and the Russians aren’t going to take his security that seriously because if he is killed it is still a win for them as everyone on the planet will be convinced that we did it or there will be plenty of propaganda saying we did. For example let’s says Iran kills him in Russia. We can claim with all the evidence in the world that we had no part and Iran did it. We have very little credibility in the world from the last 25 years. You would have the Iranians denying they were involved and a ton of propaganda from multiple entities sowing disinformation about it to muddy the truth even more. Hell Russia can use their useful idiot one more time to sow more discord in the US as they can push some wackjob idea like Biden/Harris/Obama/whomever actually had Trump killed to hurt the right. I wish this was all unrealistic science fiction but it is so easy to see how it would happen now it is quite scary.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:45
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pthighs posted:What a perfect illustration of living inside an insane bubble. I mean, people certainly thought Hillary was going to win, and early on we assumed a landslide. But by the end objective reality showed it would be somewhat close, even if she was still probably going to win. And how do we deal with those people when their bubble pops?
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Nov 2, 2020 18:48
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The extra fun thing is that Nate has Biden at 90% for an ELECTORAL COLLEGE win. If you look at the extra stats down the page, you can see that this is coming from a 97% chance for him to win the popular vote, minus a 7% chance that he wins the popular vote but loses the EC. Gerrymander? Never heard of 'er.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:48
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FizFashizzle posted:In Gamechange, Sarah Palin wanted to give a concession speech because she (rightly) thought she was more popular with the base than McCain. i think it depends on what "trump" comes out if he loses. if he is shook low enegy shook trump than he will mumble some threats and poo poo and than slink off to the bunker or Florida or such. if its high enegery angry trump. we will get full rage burn them all tantrum threats, empty or otherwise. i suspect if he goes to far, his twitter is gone. the "smart" GOP ghouls at fox will probably try to keep things calm but who knows.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:48
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Djarum posted:Well USSS wouldn’t be handling his protection anymore, it would likely be either the CIA or NSA taking over and it would be a purely covert operation. Considering how disgruntled the CIA and NSA are under Trump, I wouldn't be surprised if they encouraged action against him rather than protect him.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:49
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Meatball posted:No way trump lets any of Biden's team into the whitehouse. Paperwork delays for badges for people, unresponsive when requests for info are made. They'll be lucky if trump doesn't just bar the gate. The transition is a legally mandated process, and Trump’s admin has already signed the agreements that would give Biden’s team access. Which isn’t to say Trump won’t gently caress around, just that he hasn’t yet.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:52
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So if Turmp loses are all the headlines and chyrons going to be YOU'RE FIRED!? Also tomorrow is my birthday. Sucks that its going to be so nerve wracking.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:53
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https://twitter.com/ErnestScheyder/status/1323322181628137474
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Nov 2, 2020 18:54
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i think it depends on what "trump" comes out if he loses. if he is shook low enegy shook trump than he will mumble some threats and poo poo and than slink off to the bunker or Florida or such. if its high enegery angry trump. we will get full rage burn them all tantrum threats, empty or otherwise. i suspect if he goes to far, his twitter is gone. the "smart" GOP ghouls at fox will probably try to keep things calm but who knows. It depends how much steroid speed he's still on from his bout with COVID or if they've started weaning him off that yet.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:55
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isaboo posted:So if Turmp loses are all the headlines and chyrons going to be YOU'RE FIRED!? sup fellow November 3rd birthday person. I've had people tell me that it would be hilarious/lovely if Trump wins another term on my birthday and I am slowly accepting the statistical probability that while it is a possibility, it is very unlikely.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:55
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The way we banning fracking here will make the planet safer make the country greater Save the world for later If we keep drilling more for oil will make it a disaster We'll save the planet faster Renewables are the answer
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Nov 2, 2020 18:56
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I wanna frack them like they do in Texas please, Frack em, let me pack the courts, baby vote for me
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Nov 2, 2020 18:57
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Ratspeaker posted:The extra fun thing is that Nate has Biden at 90% for an ELECTORAL COLLEGE win. If you look at the extra stats down the page, you can see that this is coming from a 97% chance for him to win the popular vote, minus a 7% chance that he wins the popular vote but loses the EC. Yeah it's a sad state of affairs, but I am pretty much in agreement with Dave Wasserman on this point. If Biden wins the popular vote by 3% or less (like last time), it is quite likely that the electoral college will give Trump the win. If Biden wins by greater than 3% as basically every poll suggests he will, his victory should be fairly certain. Since the Republicans and Trump operate purely on projection, what are the odds they haven't stuffed the mail in vote with millions of illegal ballots for Trump? I think it's at the point where not even the courts will "give" him the election, he will need to actively cheat the ballots to win.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:57
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Honestly, given the demographics of who owns cars vs who doesn't, I'm a bit surprised that drive through voting isn't something that generally favors Republicans. Maybe in a normal year, it would.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:57
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Ratspeaker posted:The extra fun thing is that Nate has Biden at 90% for an ELECTORAL COLLEGE win. If you look at the extra stats down the page, you can see that this is coming from a 97% chance for him to win the popular vote, minus a 7% chance that he wins the popular vote but loses the EC. I don't think gerrymandering really has anything to do with the discrepancy between those two results unless you are talking about state legislators taking matters into their own hands to challenge or overturn statewide numbers.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:58
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https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1323314067575111681?s=21 This might be a bit obscure, but Trump’s attitude to Twitter makes me think of the Roman emperor Honorius who executed the general Stilicho after the latter had spent many years ensuring that Honorius could remain at his seat as western emperor.
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Nov 2, 2020 18:58
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Trump's final messages: Lady Gaga will ban fracking I could beat up Biden No one's going to vote for me cause I'm down in the polls It's super cool that one of you guys tried to ram a Biden bus off the road Hillary's e-mails Obama
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Nov 2, 2020 18:59
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https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1322969722875502593 https://www.statesman.com/news/20201101/texas-court-rejects-bid-to-toss-127000-harris-county-votes-but-fight-isnrsquot-over edit: I have been owned by tweet dates. scuz fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Nov 2, 2020 |
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Nov 2, 2020 19:00
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scuz posted:https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1322969722875502593 That is from yesterday and today is the currently-ongoing appellate hearing correct?
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Nov 2, 2020 19:01
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This is why play by play of oral arguments by journalists is dumb and silly. This does nothing to inform anyone, has no context, and just further adds fuel to "gently caress lawyers lol."
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Nov 2, 2020 19:02
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scuz posted:https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1322969722875502593 This is yesterday's state court ruling, today the case is in federal court. Beaten of course, but still: check datestamps on tweets, folks.
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Nov 2, 2020 19:02
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https://www.newyorker.com/news/us-journal/will-trumps-broken-promises-to-working-class-voters-cost-him-the-election I haven't seen this article posted yet (if you haven't used up your free New Yorker articles this month), but it's a good read. It does a good job summarizing how both parties have largely abandoned organized labor, but Trump made inroads by talking a good game (even if he didn't follow through in actual policy). It's got some good details on manufacturing issues and tariffs if it's something that you aren't very familiar with. It also makes me somewhat hopeful in that most of the people in the article seem to have realized that. It really brings home how deep a problem the death of manufacturing is. People in that industry are understandably angry, but I don't think there's anything we could do to bring it back even if we had the political will, I think it's just gone, and with it the path to solid middle class life non-college people had available to them.
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Nov 2, 2020 19:03
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FlamingLiberal posted:Final House forecast showing more Dem gains It's looking good for the Democrats all across the board. There's always going to be a few surprises, but nothing that should affect the House outcome. If everything breaks the way it should, even the Senate will flip. Biden is almost assured of winning the popular vote, no matter what. 538 has Biden up by 9% nationally, that is effectively a blowout of historical proportions. Of course things can radically change on election day when all of those undecideds and independents finally become decided. Many those always lean Republican and in states like Iowa, Michigan and Ohio it could be the tipping point from a lean-D to an R-win. The real worry among Democratic pollsters is that their internal polling may be completely off and fear a last-second electorate just gaming them and pulling a reversal at the ballot box. Cautiously optimistic is the feeling and are trying hard to make sure that every single vote for them actually gets in, it would be the difference between a win and a loss.
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Nov 2, 2020 19:03
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smoobles posted:I wanna frack them like they do in Texas please,
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Nov 2, 2020 19:04
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scuz posted:https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1322969722875502593 Probably because they can't be sure they're not all Dem votes.
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Nov 2, 2020 19:04
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evilweasel posted:To put the level of extra uncertainty in the model in context, the economist model gives Biden a 96% chance. That’s the model that Silver thinks understates uncertainty. Silver’s model is heavily discounting geographic correlations and adds several extra uncertainty fudge terms over Morris’ model. They both have to deal with the fact that there are several factors at play that just don’t have data or reasonable methods of accurate modeling. All said, I think Morris/Gelman have the better model, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will turn out to be closer to what actually happens... Personally I’m just calling it 50/50 until the packed SCOTUS sings. GreyjoyBastard posted:https://twitter.com/ErnestScheyder/status/1323311106539085824 They also have to argue that it actually violates Texas election law, which explicitly allows for curbside pickup if there is risk of serious physical injury if then voter is required to enter the premises. It sounds like the judge is a chud who might rule against that, but in a sane court it would be a slam dunk. Stickman fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Nov 2, 2020 |
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Nov 2, 2020 19:06
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Grayly Squirrel posted:This is why play by play of oral arguments by journalists is dumb and silly. This does nothing to inform anyone, has no context, and just further adds fuel to "gently caress lawyers lol." nah it owns sorry the context of it would be whether or not the temporary tents that the BOE erected to serve as de factro voting booths were consistent with code
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Nov 2, 2020 19:06
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Grondoth posted:Trump's final messages: this whole thing feels like the endgame it is. to make a comparison that i heard, it's like the scene in "Thrones" when Littlefinger runs out of schemes and slowly realizes he's about to die and no one will save him. trump doesn't know how to act outside his own nature, he can only do the same stupid motions and hope people buy into it again because he doesn't realize why he won and how nixon won.
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Nov 2, 2020 19:06
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Rincewinds posted:drat it, Dick. Is this a Vice quote about dick cheney shooting that guy
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Nov 2, 2020 19:08
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And here I thought former presidents were only titled to 10 years of Secret Service protection after their term/s because of that law passed back in 1994 or so, but apparently Obama signed a law in 2012 that reversed that, so they're back to lifetime protection? And Nixon is apparently the only one to relinquish that protection, so there's precedent for shithead presidents in that case 
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Nov 2, 2020 19:10
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Didn't know Lady Gaga was Joe's true VP pick (be a lot cooler if she was though)
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Nov 2, 2020 19:10
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TwoQuestions posted:Previously I was thinking the GOP was too incompetent to execute something like this, but now it's looking like they're getting their act together. I'm not worried about Election Day violence. Or at the very least it doesn't play much into their strategy because they expect their base to show up election day after months of being told how bad mail-in ballots are and that Covid isn't a big deal. I am still worried about poo poo being started in solid blue districts, but election day might be the one day the police feel obligated to stop the blockade parade. But the days after are another story. Their strategy is basically a national version for Florida 2000, only instead of a recount, it's a count of all mail-in ballots that they're aiming to disrupt while court cases wind through to invalidate them. At that point the endgame is to delay the counting long enough that courts can halt the recount before anyone knows what the outcome is, or trying to force the states to certify an incomplete result. My chief worry is a blockade of Trump supporters preventing ballot counters from showing up in the ensuing days that the cops oddly enough don't feel the need to stop. Or ballot counters "protested" (read: intimidated) until the only ones showing up are Trumpers and a ballot for Biden can be rejected for any number of bullshit reasons ("signature didn't look exact enough for me"). Early voting totals are at 66% of the 2016 ballot total; some don't start counting until the day after. Unless Trump gets soundly beaten on election day proper (which, given the above reasons, isn't likely) the real shitshow is going to start the day after because the advance/mail-in ballots are the decider here.
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Nov 2, 2020 19:10
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Antifa and Soros strike again!
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Nov 2, 2020 19:11
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bobjr posted:My dad is telling me a lot of his republican supporting workers are taking tomorrow off to celebrate, as they think it’s going to be a landslide Trump win. Are they, uh, aware that they won't hear any results until after they get off work anyway
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Nov 2, 2020 19:11
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Dapper_Swindler posted:this whole thing feels like the endgame it is. to make a comparison that i heard, it's like the scene in "Thrones" when Littlefinger runs out of schemes and slowly realizes he's about to die and no one will save him. trump doesn't know how to act outside his own nature, he can only do the same stupid motions and hope people buy into it again because he doesn't realize why he won and how nixon won. That was really a sudden reversal. This is a creeping doom thats been coming for four years: Trump's position as President is unassailable until he faces reelection, since impeachment requires 2/3rds of the senate. We're at that moment and until now all he's faced has been at most a setback and we're used to him wriggling out of situations or just powering through on the basis of his executive authority. Everyone is so used to him escaping consequences, including himself, that we're fixated on the few ways he can win, no matter how unlikely.
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Nov 2, 2020 19:13
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Data Graham posted:Are they, uh, aware that they won't hear any results until after they get off work anyway That isn't going to stop them from being two cases of light beer in by the time the results start coming in. Of course, we won't really know the results until days later, but hey.
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Nov 2, 2020 19:15
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Dapper_Swindler posted:this whole thing feels like the endgame it is. to make a comparison that i heard, it's like the scene in "Thrones" when Littlefinger runs out of schemes and slowly realizes he's about to die and no one will save him. trump doesn't know how to act outside his own nature, he can only do the same stupid motions and hope people buy into it again because he doesn't realize why he won and how nixon won. Also like Littlefinger, Trump mostly seeks power so that he can molest teenage girls
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Nov 2, 2020 19:17
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