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Subvisual Haze posted:Georgia closes polls at 7pm eastern and has likely already counted all their absentee ballots. Depends how close the margins are, but it could be called early. Ohio also was already counting ballots. They are expected to go Trump, but close margins could be a decent indicator that polls were right this year.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:28
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Subvisual Haze posted:Georgia closes polls at 7pm eastern and has likely already counted all their absentee ballots. Depends how close the margins are, but it could be called early. Wisconsin has said they're going to attempt to count all the votes tonight. They're much smaller than MI or PA so it might not take too long, especially if a lead is obvious.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:28
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048 for reference, this is the Villages, Wasserman's previous prediction is that if Trump only gets to 63% here it's a horrible sign for his chances of winning florida, and that he needs > 67% to be competetive so, pretty good news so far, especially since like 30k of those 'GOP' votes are vote by mail ballots likely to have a higher defection-to-Biden rate. there simply aren't that many votes left to turn out and trump would basically need to hugely win NPAs to get up to his 2016 numbers
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Nov 3, 2020 17:29
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Wasn't some of PA trying to head off the Trump narrative by counting mail-in ballots before day of or was that a fever dream I was having?
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Nov 3, 2020 17:29
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048?s=20 Sumter County (the villages) is currently under 69% republican, the margin Trump needs for that county. We'll see if it holds.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:30
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eke out posted:for reference, this is the Villages, Wasserman's previous prediction is that if Trump only gets to 63% here it's a horrible sign for his chances of winning florida, and that he needs > 67% to be competetive Republican ID or Trump? He could easily be hitting 67% with that NPA turnout; guess we'll see how independents swing.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:31
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eke out posted:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048 Haven't the NPAs been breaking for Biden in polling?
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Nov 3, 2020 17:31
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exquisite tea posted:Wisconsin has said they're going to attempt to count all the votes tonight. They're much smaller than MI or PA so it might not take too long, especially if a lead is obvious. Yes, Wisconsin will feed the absentee ballots into the scantron machines today. It's not really a hard process and they will do it quickly, albeit probably a little slower than normal.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:31
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weekly font posted:Wasn't some of PA trying to head off the Trump narrative by counting mail-in ballots before day of or was that a fever dream I was having? they are not counting early, but they will be segregating mail ballots received after today (even if they are postmarked today) as an insurance against Trump implying the whole set is tainted.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:32
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Republican ID or Trump? He could easily be hitting 67% with that NPA turnout; guess we'll see how independents swing. only if independents act completely differently there than they do everywhere else in the state in every poll
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Nov 3, 2020 17:32
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weekly font posted:Wasn't some of PA trying to head off the Trump narrative by counting mail-in ballots before day of or was that a fever dream I was having? That's not legal in PA. You might have heard similar things that some counties were making a large effort to try to make their counting go as quickly as possible while others were like "gently caress it, we'll do it wednesday"
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Nov 3, 2020 17:33
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Its basically a 0% chance that in-person voting in PA leans Biden, making a win clear early, right?
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Nov 3, 2020 17:34
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Republican ID or Trump? He could easily be hitting 67% with that NPA turnout; guess we'll see how independents swing. Party ID is not going to be a very predictive indicator of how The Villages will vote because they're already super Republican and it's doubtful anybody has changed their registration, just their opinion of Trump. The Villages went to Trump by 39% in 2016. If Biden can cut that back down to Obama 2012 levels, then he's in a good position for the rest of the state.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:34
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here's how you should look at the party ID numbers: right now, the best case scenario for trump (a 50/50 NPA split and 100% party loyalty based on ID) is... not great.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:35
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weekly font posted:Wasn't some of PA trying to head off the Trump narrative by counting mail-in ballots before day of or was that a fever dream I was having? Explicitly the opposite, the state GOP did not allow them to process mail ballots before today, and they are planning on counting them after in-person ballots. Several counties already announced they will not start counting mail in until tomorrow.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:35
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ryde posted:Its basically a 0% chance that in-person voting in PA leans Biden, making a win clear early, right? I mean, it could happen. It could also be that instead of a 70/30 split its more like 60/40, which yea is probably an earlier call.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:36
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Lib_Crusher posted:If you think that's bad wait until you see Southwest Florida My folks have a place in Cape Coral and every time I go I'm...stunned, that it exists (and won't for much longer).
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Nov 3, 2020 17:37
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:here's how you should look at the party ID numbers: right now, the best case scenario for trump (a 50/50 NPA split and 100% party loyalty based on ID) is... not great. yeah a "safe' assumption about defections based on polling, last time i checked, is something like - biden wins 96% of dems - trump wins 92% of republicans but the first number is a LOT more sure than the second and a whole lot will depend on if "GOP" vote-by-mail ballots really are as democratic-slanted as polls suggest
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Nov 3, 2020 17:38
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323655599553466370
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Nov 3, 2020 17:38
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So literally everything appears to be going as expected.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:40
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Nov 3, 2020 17:41
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Both Steve Schale and Nate Silver have said Biden will need to win Independents by about 6% to comfortably win Florida in as much as a GOP+3 environment, assuming R defection rates are accurate. Schale has said to look to Duval and potentially Pinellas flipping blue early to see if Biden's got a shot in the state.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:41
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exquisite tea posted:Both Steve Schale and Nate Silver have said Biden will need to win Independents by about 6% to comfortably win Florida in as much as a GOP+3 environment, assuming R defection rates are accurate. yep, and most polls have assumed around R+2-4 samples and found a lead bigger than 6% with independents, so like everywhere else the big question is going to be "were the polls basically right or not"
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Nov 3, 2020 17:42
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If we assume that Biden has a 4% defection rate and Trump 10% (net 6% gain for Biden) and that NPA's are going Biden 55/45, that would five Biden a 727k vote lead going into election day. If the NPA split is more like 53/47 and the defection rate more like 4% net to Biden, its more like 575k.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:43
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https://twitter.com/Sweetfancymosez/status/1323656645847752706 Can anyone confirm or deny this?
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Nov 3, 2020 17:43
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wilderthanmild posted:https://twitter.com/Sweetfancymosez/status/1323656645847752706 Lol no one browsing this thread knows poo poo. Everything we know is what Dave tells us.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:47
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Let's do a little more math: Florida has 14 million registered voters and 9 million have already voter (64% - although 75% of "active" voters). If we say that this election has the highest turnout, ever, and another 2 million people vote, then Trump will need to make up between 500k - 700k votes within that 2 million total.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:49
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I posted this in the GE liveposting thread, but figured maybe people here would benefit, if y'all didn't know this stuff already. Places to watch in Florida (ie, where the giant concentrations of Dem voters are to run up the score in): South Florida: Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties (includes Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and West Palm) West coast: Hillsborough & Pinellas counties (Tampa and St. Petersburg) Northeast: Duval county (Jacksonville) Central: Orange county (Orlando) If you see a big blue dot in north central FL, that's Alachua county, which gets a honorable mention (it's where UF is located). There's also the southwest corridor (Collier, Lee, and Sarasota) and Treasure/Space Coasts (central eastern area) that are full of old white Republicans.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:49
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:So literally everything appears to be going as expected.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:49
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Grouchio posted:Is that good or bad news for Florida flipping? Exceedingly good.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:51
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Grouchio posted:Is that good or bad news for Florida flipping? The polls are the most reliable number at this point, but also its Florida. Everyone is reading tea leaves.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:51
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Zero_Grade posted:I posted this in the GE liveposting thread, but figured maybe people here would benefit, if y'all didn't know this stuff already. Places to watch in Florida (ie, where the giant concentrations of Dem voters are to run up the score in): also, if you believe district level polls, some particular counties to watch: - polk county (south central), trump +15 in 2016 - sarasota county (just below tampa bay), trump + 11 in 2016 - pinellas (st. pete and clearwater), trump +1 if the first two end up being more like trump +single digits, it'd be a sign polls are right about the suburbs and we probably won
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Nov 3, 2020 17:51
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:Let's do a little more math: Thinking on the low end of that estimated deficit, 1.25 to .75 million is a 63% vote share of those two million.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:52
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If everything appears to be going according to expectations it implies that the polling isn’t radically wrong. Which is obviously good for Biden.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:52
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:So literally everything appears to be going as expected. I think Wasserman had FL red on his map, so things going as he expects probably means the state stays red.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:53
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illcendiary posted:Thinking on the low end of that estimated deficit, 1.25 to .75 million is a 63% vote share of those two million. Its all gonna depend on turnout and margin. If Florida is lower turnout than... yea, I think Trump just runs out of votes. Seven Hundred Bee fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Nov 3, 2020 |
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Nov 3, 2020 17:54
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TyrantWD posted:I think Wasserman had FL red on his map, so things going as he expects probably means the state stays red. Cook's reasoning was, almost verbatim, "the data suggests this is going to the democrats, but they keep coming up short when the data suggests it's going to the democrats, so gently caress it we're calling it red" So you can't quite do this logic (which would generally make sense).
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Nov 3, 2020 17:55
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:If everything appears to be going according to expectations it implies that the polling isn’t radically wrong. Which is obviously good for Biden. Not targeted at you, but around what time did people start to realize that Clinton was about to have a bad night? I'm talking day off, not the alarm bells from Congressional districts.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:55
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Pook Good Mook posted:Not targeted at you, but around what time did people start to realize that Clinton was about to have a bad night? I'm talking day off, not the alarm bells from Congressional districts. Early VA returns at like 7:15 PM.
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Nov 3, 2020 17:56
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Pook Good Mook posted:Not targeted at you, but around what time did people start to realize that Clinton was about to have a bad night? I'm talking day off, not the alarm bells from Congressional districts. Very quickly. That night was very https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LTgNVwfMAE
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Nov 3, 2020 17:56
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