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https://twitter.com/MaryPatHector/status/1324715902395437056 I intend to learn more about these folks since Abrams is popular in this thread.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:17
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Grouchio posted:I still think we'll start seeing vaccines pop up by this spring. I think there will be vaccines fairly soon as well but also the distribution, messaging, compliance, dealing with non-compliers, all that poo poo is going to be a big factor for the next election, in my o.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:18
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Red posted:https://twitter.com/MaryPatHector/status/1324715902395437056 It also sounds like a good core to help start up a proper progressive 50-state agenda.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:18
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The White House status report on CNN right now is that Mark Meadows is coddling Trump while everyone else is looking for jobs.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:23
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https://twitter.com/aaronblake/status/1324757741315989505?s=21 Lol
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Nov 6, 2020 19:23
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Everyone loves an astronaut. Name one astronaut who ran for office and lost - ya’ can’t. Dems need to recruit more astronauts. 
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Nov 6, 2020 19:26
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How likely is it that Biden will get to a margin of 38k or higher in PA? That seems to be the point where he gets over the .5% needed to stop a recount.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:27
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wilderthanmild posted:How likely is it that Biden will get to a margin of 38k or higher in PA? That seems to be the point where he gets over the .5% needed to stop a recount. He will win PA by nearly 200k when everything’s settled.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:28
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wilderthanmild posted:How likely is it that Biden will get to a margin of 38k or higher in PA? That seems to be the point where he gets over the .5% needed to stop a recount. Every estimate said "At least 80k" and Biden blew past most of those estimates already so uh yeah
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Nov 6, 2020 19:28
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Also, I know we talked about it a lot before and at this point now it doesn't really matter, but to give some perspective on the breaks in ballots being counted in Maricopa, this is why: https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324738637146120192 Most of the map is Maricopa County, and so you can see why some areas would have ballots that would skew more heavily for Trump. The question then mostly gets down to whether they were processing ballots from the further precincts or from the more central core. It sounds like they've also probably cleared out those further precincts and what we're starting to see are the same-day drop offs and ones that were more centralized, which is why it's trending back to a more equal split between them.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:28
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So McSally is Arizona’s Martha Coakley
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Nov 6, 2020 19:28
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I kind of assume that a McSally needs to become the informal name for something
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Nov 6, 2020 19:28
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wilderthanmild posted:How likely is it that Biden will get to a margin of 38k or higher in PA? That seems to be the point where he gets over the .5% needed to stop a recount. From what I've seen, very likely. He'll end up leading between 70-100k (likely more) I'd guess.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:28
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https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1324770257840590850?s=21wilderthanmild posted:How likely is it that Biden will get to a margin of 38k or higher in PA? That seems to be the point where he gets over the .5% needed to stop a recount. He’s expected to be up around 2% in PA when the counting is done.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:28
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JT Jag posted:https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1324768465354395649 Clearly we just need to always assume the polls are off by that same amount every time and then they'll be perfectly serviceable.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:31
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Delthalaz posted:So McSally is Arizona’s Martha Coakley ...who is Massachusetts’s Hillary Clinton. 
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Nov 6, 2020 19:31
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To be clear, I'm not saying this is good. It's just baked in at this point. Biden can't stop the politicization of control measures that Trump started. Sanders wouldn't be able to. FDR wouldn't be able to. If any of them were in charge when this started, maybe. Presidents get electorally punished and rewarded for all kinds of poo poo they have nothing to do with.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:31
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Fivey is dreaming of their off-in-a-corner-of-the-woods lakeside cabin, a recliner and comfy blanket, and some hot cocoa, but there's still some wrap-up to do.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:31
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LabyaMynora posted:Everyone loves an astronaut. Name one astronaut who ran for office and lost - ya’ can’t. Counterpoint
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Nov 6, 2020 19:32
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SourKraut posted:It also sounds like a good core to help start up a proper progressive 50-state agenda. It is! Unfortunately, there's little chance it will happen. The 2018 Governor's race in Georgia sparked a strong progressive organization effort whos efforts and goals were endorsed and enacted by the Democratic party officials where possible. These huge margins in and around Atlanta are a direct result of this alliance. There was a lot of anger between these groups and elected officials over the summer during the George Floyd protests, but less so compared to other cities, and they kept up their efforts. But throughout the country, even in swing states and districts, Democratic officials are typically indifferent, if not downright hostile, to progressive organizations. And the House Democrats conference call yesterday straight up blamed the downballot struggles on the efforts and demands of many of these groups.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:34
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Kavros posted:I kind of assume that a McSally needs to become the informal name for something A "McSally" is a full bowling game comprised of nothing but gutterballs or a golf score 1000x par for the course.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:34
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Astronauts are a cut above the rest of us and dems should absolutely get more of them, this has been my Ted Talk.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:35
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I wonder if McSally will try again in 2022 since this was just a special election for the remaining two years.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:35
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Biden, appoint Sinema to Transportation and see if McSally can pull off the three peat
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Nov 6, 2020 19:36
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LabyaMynora posted:...who is Massachusetts’s Hillary Clinton. Whoa whoa whoa, let's not say things we can't take back.  Good burn. Ganon posted:I wonder if McSally will try again in 2022 since this was just a special election for the remaining two years. I kinda doubt it; she's lost too many times. They'll get someone new, would be my bet.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:36
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Majorian posted:I kinda doubt it; she's lost too many times. They'll get someone new, would be my bet. And yet Robby Mook remains gainfully employed
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Nov 6, 2020 19:37
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It tells you a lot about our system that Biden is going to coast to a big-rear end PV win once California et. al. are actually 100% counted in a week or whatever, and that his EC total is going to at least be fairly large (like probably 306)... but that arrived through a series of terrifying individual races that could have easily gone the wrong way. We all know this, but: goddamn this is a loving stupid system.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:37
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When does prime time programming start? That's likely to be the Dem friendly call time so they can segue into the victory speeches
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Nov 6, 2020 19:37
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Also, Kelly has an identical twin who is also an astronaut. What’s not to love? More seriously, he’s been pushing for harsher gun control laws, so he’s a gud’un.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:38
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A McSally is like a cousin to a Trump, where one proves loathesomely insufficient in all regards but still gets to fail upwards for at least one election, but the other is ultimately just a charity case in all conceivable realms
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Nov 6, 2020 19:38
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Doccykins posted:When does prime time programming start? That's likely to be the Dem friendly call time so they can segue into the victory speeches Its 6-8 pm EST, right?
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Nov 6, 2020 19:38
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My chud colleagues suddenly very concerned about executive orders.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:38
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Hellblazer187 posted:Yes, but the virus recovery will also happen under Biden. Even if it's nothing more than 80% of the country having had the drat thing and herd immunity kicking in. To get there without Italy-style crushing of the health system will take at least 3-4 years (of consistent record breaking case numbers and deaths).
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Nov 6, 2020 19:39
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cr0y posted:My chud colleagues suddenly very concerned about executive orders. I can't wait until the republican party is now very concerned about the power the executive branch holds.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:41
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Is literally anyone going to believe any of the polling for the GA runoffs? I don’t believe that polling is now a dead science, I think they’ll be able to figure out what doesn’t work and fix things but that’s gonna be a long years long process that won’t be relevant until the midterms. But for an election in a couple months nothing is gonna be somehow all fixed.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:41
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sean10mm posted:It tells you a lot about our system that Biden is going to coast to a big-rear end PV win once California et. al. are actually 100% counted in a week or whatever, and that his EC total is going to at least be fairly large (like probably 306)... but that arrived through a series of terrifying individual races that could have easily gone the wrong way. Yeah, I feel like our collective disappointment here has a lot to do with the way the results are trickling in. And also the really misleading polling. I can't help but wonder what the reaction would have been if the polling had correctly shown a close race, and we had gotten the results all at once on Election Day.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:42
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DaveWoo posted:Yeah, I feel like our collective disappointment here has a lot to do with the way the results are trickling in. And also the really misleading polling. Would I trade 3 months of higher anxiety for one night of 2016 PTSD, followed by 3 days of unease? Hard to say.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:43
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Is literally anyone going to believe any of the polling for the GA runoffs? I don’t believe that polling is now a dead science, I think they’ll be able to figure out what doesn’t work and fix things but that’s gonna be a long years long process that won’t be relevant until the midterms. But for an election in a couple months nothing is gonna be somehow all fixed. I think national Dems should stay the gently caress out of it and let the same team that delivered a blue Georgia run the runoff. I also think that we that don't live there should be cautious about donating, I heard some speculation among SC democrats that the nationalization of that Senate race and the (correct) perception that millions in out-of-state dollars flowing into Harrison's coffers hurt him more than it helped him. McGrath too, but I don't think she needed any help losing. Basically there's an amount of money that's useful to win a given race, and everything above that is pointless, especially in a runoff, where extra money can't be used to help downballot.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:43
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lol holy poo poo how have I lived my life this long and never seen this before...
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Nov 6, 2020 19:45
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zoux posted:I think national Dems should stay the gently caress out of it and let the same team that delivered a blue Georgia run the runoff. I also think that we that don't live there should be cautious about donating, I heard some speculation among SC democrats that the nationalization of that Senate race and the (correct) perception that millions in out-of-state dollars flowing into Harrison's coffers hurt him more than it helped him. McGrath too, but I don't think she needed any help losing. Possibly what happened with Gideon in Maine.
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Nov 6, 2020 19:45
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