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CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Mr. Nice! posted:

Hey, fuckheads, biden loving won today. Stop, take a moment, and celebrate. This is not a time for fighting. Trump loving lost. He will be gone. Yes, work must be done to fix how hosed up everything is, and there may not be a way to really get it done. Biden is going to be far less than perfect, but Trump loving lost today and will no longer be president in three months. Soak it in and enjoy something for a few hours.

I'm super excited. But now I have to prep for a Jan runoff to get two GA senators into the Senate to gently caress McConnell. So I have to go get MORE people to participate in a system they don't like.

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Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

c-spam cannot afford



I don’t have any booze so this is how I’m celebrating. I suggest you do the same and love your fellow man.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Mr. Nice! posted:

I don’t have any booze so this is how I’m celebrating. I suggest you do the same and love your fellow man.



I'm buying myself more lab sample quality radioisotopes to celebrate.

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

CommieGIR posted:

I fully apologize for missing the post where you said you did vote.

But actually: Until we get rid of First Past The Post and the Electoral College: It is the rules of the game. Its a lovely game. But its the rule.

Not really, but keep that attitude.
It's only the rules because everyone agrees to them. If people actually gave a gently caress, they wouldn't do exactly what you are doing- "You can't vote 3rd party, because they can't win!" They can't win if they don't get votes. And again, I don't have to vote. I agree first past is a broken system, but it isn't going to change in my life time. Until it does, I'll vote for what I believe.

Like I said, this is a stink I can't wash off, because all I did was vote for the white piece of poo poo over the Orange piece of poo poo. I didn't change anything. Having a gently caress who voted along Republican lines for most of his career and is already playing the decorum game isn't going to fix the issue. Plus, he chose Harris, another turd of renown. Don't act like because Trump is losing that Biden is going to right the loving ship.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

c-spam cannot afford



CommieGIR posted:

I'm super excited. But now I have to prep for a Jan runoff to get two GA senators into the Senate to gently caress McConnell. So I have to go get MORE people to participate in a system they don't like.

I'm with you, and I hope we can swing a miracle in Georgia.

Fister Roboto
Feb 21, 2008

Well hey, now that Trump is out, it means that we can all make valid criticisms of Biden without comparing him to Trump, right?

Right?

Midjack
Dec 24, 2007



Mr. Nice! posted:

I don’t have any booze so this is how I’m celebrating. I suggest you do the same and love your fellow man.



I just shot up a giant hit of insulin to cover a big piece of celebratory key lime pie.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Fister Roboto posted:

Well hey, now that Trump is out, it means that we can all make valid criticisms of Biden without comparing him to Trump, right?

Right?

Go for it, there's plenty to criticize.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

c-spam cannot afford



Fister Roboto posted:

Well hey, now that Trump is out, it means that we can all make valid criticisms of Biden without comparing him to Trump, right?

Right?

I think it is perfectly fine to criticize the president-elect. We have to hold him to account.

Fister Roboto
Feb 21, 2008

Cool, I'm really looking forward to telling anyone saying "well he's not perfect but he's better than Trump" to gently caress off.

Duzzy Funlop
Jan 13, 2010

Hi there, would you like to try some spicy products?

facialimpediment posted:

Just got an answer, basically:

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1324774892076630017?s=19

My guess is that the major players are looking for any surprises in the Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) ballots that got hosed up in the mail (wrong ballot type sent). Arizona is still taking too long, Nevada's on the doorstep of a call, and Georgia's so loving close that it's a mandatory recount.

Probably by the end of the day once PA drops more votes.

You fuckers are gonna make me sleep through another night for a result, aren't you?`

At least I'm gonna finish another rewatch of Ken Burns Vietnam War at this rate.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Duzzy Funlop posted:

You fuckers are gonna make me sleep through another night for a result, aren't you?`

At least I'm gonna finish another rewatch of Ken Burns Vietnam War at this rate.

Yeah, a bunch of pollsters are scratching their heads as to what the AP is waiting for to call this, since its a done deal even with a recount at this point.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
Pretty sure the only reason he ran is to get Trump out of office. He is only doing 1 term and is anything but dynamic. I wish he had run 4 years ago so we wouldn't be in this position. Biden barely managed to beat Trump, I have a strong suspicion Bernie would not have done any better, probably even worse as they would have been able to label him a radical and attack him with the riots.

The immediate ability to start calling for each others blood and instantly poo poo on Biden is rather amazing.

Woofer
Mar 2, 2020

At the very least, the collective mental health of this country just went up a bit.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

lightpole posted:

Pretty sure the only reason he ran is to get Trump out of office. He is only doing 1 term and is anything but dynamic. I wish he had run 4 years ago so we wouldn't be in this position. Biden barely managed to beat Trump, I have a strong suspicion Bernie would not have done any better, probably even worse as they would have been able to label him a radical and attack him with the riots.

The immediate ability to start calling for each others blood and instantly poo poo on Biden is rather amazing.

Yeah, the House/Senate and State Legislatures are the real places we need wins. We could possibly stomach a Trump presidency if we had a sane legislature, we don't.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

CommieGIR posted:

Yeah, a bunch of pollsters are scratching their heads as to what the AP is waiting for to call this, since its a done deal even with a recount at this point.

They're likely freaked because of their dumb Arizona call.

Their internal models said "oh, Biden's up 8 with only mail-ins left, CALL IT" except they missed that Arizona mail-ins have been a thing in the state for Republicans forever. Donnie's bullshit didn't stop Republicans from mailing ballots, they just arrived later than Democrats' and weren't counted in the first batches.

Then, the late-earlies came back, AP/Fox didn't want to rescind the call because they thought their models were still fine (and didn't want to back down to Donnie), so now they're stuck. They don't trust the obvious (NV and PA are donezo) and GA is in automatic recountland, so they don't want to be first and potentially have to pull back a president-elect call.

Also I had my favorite sub for lunch. SUBS (slightly) BEFORE DUBS

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

lightpole posted:

Pretty sure the only reason he ran is to get Trump out of office. He is only doing 1 term and is anything but dynamic. I wish he had run 4 years ago so we wouldn't be in this position. Biden barely managed to beat Trump, I have a strong suspicion Bernie would not have done any better, probably even worse as they would have been able to label him a radical and attack him with the riots.

I think Bernie would be a better president. But also I think Bernie would have lost. It’s a position that means that both brunch libs and also red rose twitter gets angry. (I voted Bernie in the primary)

Biden didn’t really barely win. Multiple states were coin flips but he won every single one of those key coin flips. When you only need like ~2 of 6 coin flips to go your way, the math is very on your side, even if it’s nerve-wracking to watch.

Basically Nate Silver was right. He made a model that said “even if polls are underreporting Trump votes by a lot, Biden will win and it will take forever to count.” That was correct. His model was essentially if you roll a ten-sided die, Biden needs a 2-10 to win. Biden rolled a 3 or 4 and a lot of people lost it as a result.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Mr. Nice! posted:

Trump lost motherfucking Georgia.


GEORGIA

I prefer to say that Stacey Abrams won motherfucking Georgia.

Zamujasa
Oct 27, 2010



Bread Liar

lightpole posted:

Pretty sure the only reason he ran is to get Trump out of office. He is only doing 1 term and is anything but dynamic. I wish he had run 4 years ago so we wouldn't be in this position. Biden barely managed to beat Trump, I have a strong suspicion Bernie would not have done any better, probably even worse as they would have been able to label him a radical and attack him with the riots.

The immediate ability to start calling for each others blood and instantly poo poo on Biden is rather amazing.

Biden sucks poo poo.


In terms of how Bernie would have done, I honestly think the best thing to look at is Nevada's democratic caucuses. Early voting used ranked-choice forms.

Bernie nearly doubled the totals of any other candidate. After the final realignment, he won with 40% of the vote, well over the 18% Biden got in second place.


The real main challenge with Bernie or any other actual progressive is that the people who run the party are garbage, and when you have that kind of power you can do a lot to stifle any sort of change.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

c-spam cannot afford



facialimpediment posted:

They're likely freaked because of their dumb Arizona call.

Their internal models said "oh, Biden's up 8 with only mail-ins left, CALL IT" except they missed that Arizona mail-ins have been a thing in the state for Republicans forever. Donnie's bullshit didn't stop Republicans from mailing ballots, they just arrived later than Democrats' and weren't counted in the first batches.

Then, the late-earlies came back, AP/Fox didn't want to rescind the call because they thought their models were still fine (and didn't want to back down to Donnie), so now they're stuck. They don't trust the obvious (NV and PA are donezo) and GA is in automatic recountland, so they don't want to be first and potentially have to pull back a president-elect call.

Also I had my favorite sub for lunch. SUBS (slightly) BEFORE DUBS

They were right about AZ and AZ is over. There are move votes outstanding in maricopa county (which is going to biden overall) than there are in the entire rest of the state. He can't overcome the deficit. AZ doesn't matter because PA is done, but still.

Zamujasa
Oct 27, 2010



Bread Liar
To expand on my previous post one of the signs that makes me think Bernie would've done better are results like Florida. Progressive policies like the $15 minimum wage passed easily, and those are policies that Bernie champions.

Also consider AOC's tweet thread earlier in which the progressive side of the party actually did fairly well everywhere, while the more moderate Ds floundered.

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

https://twitter.com/news6wkmg/status/1324788390160715777?s=19

Somewhere in the bowels of the White House, Trump feels one upped for his presser perfectly timed for National newscasts which most of them gave up on part way through.

As Nero Danced
Sep 3, 2009

Alright, let's do this

CBJSprague24 posted:

https://twitter.com/news6wkmg/status/1324788390160715777?s=19

Somewhere in the bowels of the White House, Trump feels one upped for his presser perfectly timed for National newscasts which most of them gave up on part way through.

Once again, addressing a nation but dedicated to an audience of one.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Zamujasa posted:

Biden sucks poo poo.


In terms of how Bernie would have done, I honestly think the best thing to look at is Nevada's democratic caucuses. Early voting used ranked-choice forms.

Bernie nearly doubled the totals of any other candidate. After the final realignment, he won with 40% of the vote, well over the 18% Biden got in second place.


The real main challenge with Bernie or any other actual progressive is that the people who run the party are garbage, and when you have that kind of power you can do a lot to stifle any sort of change.

Yeah, DCCC and DNC keep being surprised that the people they push over progressives lose, and their god damned response after this election is "We need to be more moderate"

Yeah. More Moderate. In an Overton window shifted right. DCCC and DNC seem to think that appealing to Republicans is somehow going to win them the day, and then lose.

Soylent Pudding
Jun 22, 2007

We've got people!


My accumulated hot takes. The national Dems loving suck at campaigning and I'm not sure the polls were that wrong as opposed to succdems being that bad at winning elections. Pelosi et al would rather lose than work with effective campaigners who also work with leftists.

I also think the GOP has an easier time motivating their base because they're united in white grievance politics but the Dems are a big tent coalition of everyone outside that who don't necessarily agree on anything else. Anyway Stacy Abrams is a force to be reckoned with in Georgia and I hope for the Senate races the national Dems shut the gently caress up and follow her lead on how to make them happen.

I feel like going forward is a three part strategy of 1) trying to pull every primary left, 2) sticking with voting blue in general elections to never cede ground to fascists, and 3) agitating for structural reforms. Getting rid of the electoral college may be a nonstarter but something like nationwide tanked choice voting seems essential. Our level of partisan hatred scares the poo poo out of me and our janky beta version of democracy is probably going to go continue to be deadlocked and underperforming while we're stuck in a first past the post two party system.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

As Nero Danced posted:

Once again, addressing a nation but dedicated to an audience of one.

Pretty sure it'll work just like last time. Trumple Thinskin is just incapable of not rising to the bait so buckle up for another whacked out "perfect" presser.

Wrong Theory
Aug 27, 2005

Satellite from days of old, lead me to your access code

CBJSprague24 posted:


Somewhere in the bowels of the White House, Trump feels one upped for his presser perfectly timed for National newscasts which most of them gave up on part way through.

Zamujasa
Oct 27, 2010



Bread Liar

Soylent Pudding posted:

I also think the GOP has an easier time motivating their base because they're united in white grievance politics

The GOP also has a literal propaganda news network in FNC. The Dems have nothing of the sort; a lot of people argue that "well, CNN and MSNBC are the liberal news media" or whatever, but both of them are more centrist "truth is in the middle" "both sides" trash.

The biggest problem is that mainline / party leader Dems do not want progressive policy at all.


Soylent Pudding posted:

nationwide tanked choice voting

:guinness:

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

lmao 5.56 ammo prices are up another 40% since yesterday

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Mr. Nice! posted:

They were right about AZ and AZ is over. There are move votes outstanding in maricopa county (which is going to biden overall) than there are in the entire rest of the state. He can't overcome the deficit. AZ doesn't matter because PA is done, but still.

Disagree (they got lucky), agree though. The Maricopa remainder ain't good for Biden, but it's good enough not-good to be enough.

... I really just wrote this post to say that Arizona is coming.

https://twitter.com/cableknitjumper/status/1324789462291771393?s=19

not caring here
Feb 22, 2012

blazemastah 2 dry 4 u
You imagine what being around trump must be like right now?

That fat son of a bitch is facing a 120 mil tax bill adjudication, likely as he walks out the door. Legal problems of varying severity most likely until the day he dies. Half a bil of personally guaranteed debt coming due in 2 years.

But he's got Rudy Giuliani to help him out.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

not caring here posted:

You imagine what being around trump must be like right now?

That fat son of a bitch is facing a 120 mil tax bill adjudication, likely as he walks out the door. Legal problems of varying severity most likely until the day he dies. Half a bil of personally guaranteed debt coming due in 2 years.

But he's got Rudy Giuliani to help him out.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

His debts are also coming due as soon as he walks out the door, and Deutsch Bank is kinda done with him.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Zamujasa posted:

In terms of how Bernie would have done, I honestly think the best thing to look at is Nevada's democratic caucuses. Early voting used ranked-choice forms.

Why? NV demographically doesn’t look very much like the rest of the nation and ranked choice is neat but not how the GE is done.

It seems like a kind of outlier and unique state to select as a national bellwether.

not caring here
Feb 22, 2012

blazemastah 2 dry 4 u

CommieGIR posted:

His debts are also coming due as soon as he walks out the door, and Deutsch Bank is kinda done with him.

I thought he was good with deutsch bank for 2 more years?

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice
Guess the IRS audit's about to end. Gonna be fun watching the house of cards burst in to flames.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Alright, I don't usually do this kind of thing and I highly suggest you spoof your poo poo or use burners.

https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1324720968988794880?s=19

But if you're bored (and the line isn't completely dead), gl hf go report some fraud.

Zamujasa
Oct 27, 2010



Bread Liar
Ranked choice gives much better insight into candidate preference and debunks the utterly asinine "electability" myth.

"XXXXXX isn't electable!": People can still pick their real preference first, then the "safe" choice second (or third or...). Then it turns out the actual preferred candidate wins and all the "but electability!" stuff was nonsense.

As for demographics, the US is huge and I have to ask what state you would consider a good demographic representation for the majority of the US.

But most of the reason was that it was one of the few early primaries caucuses when most of the candidates were still in and it had ranked-choice votes.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

mlmp08 posted:

I think Bernie would be a better president. But also I think Bernie would have lost. It’s a position that means that both brunch libs and also red rose twitter gets angry. (I voted Bernie in the primary)

Biden didn’t really barely win. Multiple states were coin flips but he won every single one of those key coin flips. When you only need like ~2 of 6 coin flips to go your way, the math is very on your side, even if it’s nerve-wracking to watch.

Basically Nate Silver was right. He made a model that said “even if polls are underreporting Trump votes by a lot, Biden will win and it will take forever to count.” That was correct. His model was essentially if you roll a ten-sided die, Biden needs a 2-10 to win. Biden rolled a 3 or 4 and a lot of people lost it as a result.

This is a fair assessment but I view it as being much closer than it should have been. Trump still won 47-48% of the vote. I also went Bernie/Biden.



Zamujasa posted:

Also consider AOC's tweet thread earlier in which the progressive side of the party actually did fairly well everywhere, while the more moderate Ds floundered.

AOC was pretty clear with her post so you should probably reread it. Its not a progressives/moderates thing but a how did you reach out to your supporters, did you put in the effort, spend the resources, on the right media, did you utilize 21st century media, etc. AOC has worked to make connections with the younger generation and used modern forms of communication to get her message out so people see it.

I really have no idea how Bernie would have done. The right wing have their propaganda apparatus and the ability to make him into an axe murderer if they wanted. There is a very solid ceiling of around 60ish% support for anything outside of Trumpism or Fox News talking points. Progressive ideas have good popularity even though their candidates struggle in red states.

Milo and POTUS
Sep 3, 2017

I will not shut up about the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers. I talk about them all the time and work them into every conversation I have. I built a shrine in my room for the yellow one who died because sadly no one noticed because she died around 9/11. Wanna see it?

not caring here posted:

You imagine what being around trump must be like right now?

That fat son of a bitch is facing a 120 mil tax bill adjudication, likely as he walks out the door. Legal problems of varying severity most likely until the day he dies. Half a bil of personally guaranteed debt coming due in 2 years.

But he's got Rudy Giuliani to help him out.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

We're going to see the mother of all gofundmes

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Milo and POTUS
Sep 3, 2017

I will not shut up about the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers. I talk about them all the time and work them into every conversation I have. I built a shrine in my room for the yellow one who died because sadly no one noticed because she died around 9/11. Wanna see it?
Btw, it'll succeed too

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