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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

THS posted:

no run off? good

projections have a run-off

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PERPETUAL IDIOT
Sep 12, 2003

i say swears online posted:

projections have a run-off

Apparently the projected run-off is between Arauz and a Green-type Indigenous rights guy, Yaku Perez. The right-wing candidate didn't even make it.

FrancisFukyomama
Feb 4, 2019

drat, Lenin Moreno really hosed up his party’s electoral prospects by being a pussy lib, huh

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

PERPETUAL IDIOT posted:

Apparently the projected run-off is between Arauz and a Green-type Indigenous rights guy, Yaku Perez. The right-wing candidate didn't even make it.
That's just based on the quick count though. The full results still aren't out.

Even a right wing exit polling firm had Arauz at 36% (needs 40 to avoid a runoff) so it's still possible he takes it in round one. but the race for second is extremely tight so it's really hard to say who'll be running against Arauz in the 2nd round

The election was a US-level mess with huge crowds and lines at all the polling stations. Rumors were the right (who, including lenin moreno himself, were in the US the days before the election) was planning to force Arauz into a second round and then wanted to delay the 2nd round indefinitely or something.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Also Haiti now has their own good Guaido. Everyone hates the fake puppet president who won a sham election and declared his term ended yesterday even though the Biden administration is insisting there's another year before his term ends. There have been street protests for years now and violent reprisals and black ops kidnappings in response. So now Haitians have sworn in some judge to be the new president but the old president is still there.

FrancisFukyomama
Feb 4, 2019

Fast Luck posted:

Also Haiti now has their own good Guaido. Everyone hates the fake puppet president who won a sham election and declared his term ended yesterday even though the Biden administration is insisting there's another year before his term ends. There have been street protests for years now and violent reprisals and black ops kidnappings in response. So now Haitians have sworn in some judge to be the new president but the old president is still there.

didn’t the last time Haitians had a good President hillary immediately couped him? or was that for the min wage vote?

Echo Chamber
Oct 16, 2008

best username/post combo

FrancisFukyomama posted:

didn’t the last time Haitians had a good President hillary immediately couped him? or was that for the min wage vote?
I thought Hillary hand picked a winner of an election, not outright couped. And Hillary sort of killed a minimum wage hike there I think.

The most famous recent coup in Haiti was 2004 under Bush I think.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Yeah, when the United States literally kidnapped the president JB Aristide and renditioned him to Africa. Just absolutely insane. US-trained insurgents came across the border from the DR and then the US claimed they kidnapped the president for his own protection and for the good of Haiti basically.

Aristide ruled too, he's a liberation theologist and was building hospitals and poo poo. He was probably the first and last truly democratically elected president of Haiti since the dictatorship.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

rofl these leaked cables just lay bare everything about capitalism and imperialism you need to know:

quote:

In a 2008 United States embassy cable, former U.S. ambassador to Haiti Janet Sanderson emphasized that: "A premature departure of MINUSTAH would leave the [Haitian] government...vulnerable to...resurgent populist and anti-market economy political forces—reversing gains of the last two years. MINUSTAH is an indispensable tool in realizing core USG [U.S. government] policy interests in Haiti."

At a meeting with U.S. State Department officials on 2 August 2006, former Guatemalan diplomat Edmond Mulet, then chief of MINUSTAH, "urged U.S. legal action against Aristide to prevent the former president from gaining more traction with the Haitian population and returning to Haiti".

At Mulet's request, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan urged South Africa’s president Thabo Mbeki "to ensure that Aristide remained in South Africa".

U.S. ambassador James Foley wrote in a confidential 22 March 2005 cable that an August 2004 poll "showed that Aristide was still the only figure in Haiti with a favorability rating above 50%".

wonder how long before a phillip cross type comes through and cleans up this wikipedia entry.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

mbeki with the good hair

Maximo Roboto
Feb 4, 2012

Wyclef should've ran again

FrancisFukyomama
Feb 4, 2019

Fast Luck posted:

Yeah, when the United States literally kidnapped the president JB Aristide and renditioned him to Africa. Just absolutely insane. US-trained insurgents came across the border from the DR and then the US claimed they kidnapped the president for his own protection and for the good of Haiti basically.

Aristide ruled too, he's a liberation theologist and was building hospitals and poo poo. He was probably the first and last truly democratically elected president of Haiti since the dictatorship.

there are so many leaders in the region who have biographies that begin with stuff like “as a young priest he frequently slept in the rain, having opened his parish to the destitute of the city” and end with “couped by US”

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

PERPETUAL IDIOT posted:

Apparently the projected run-off is between Arauz and a Green-type Indigenous rights guy, Yaku Perez. The right-wing candidate didn't even make it.

There may be some tactical voting in the runoff, Perez has been pushing a "softer" tone and maybe more amenable to the Ecuadorian conservatives.

Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010



Ardennes posted:

There may be some tactical voting in the runoff, Perez has been pushing a "softer" tone and maybe more amenable to the Ecuadorian conservatives.

Would be interesting to see to find out what the right wing hates the most, socialism or indigenous people

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Cao Ni Ma posted:

Would be interesting to see to find out what the right wing hates the most, socialism or indigenous people

They are probably fine with whatever keeps the current system in place.

CharlestheHammer
Jun 26, 2011

YOU SAY MY POSTS ARE THE RAVINGS OF THE DUMBEST PERSON ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH BUT YOU YOURSELF ARE READING THEM. CURIOUS!
you think so but if the coupers had been a little more subtle Bolivia might not have fallen apart

instead they tried to punish all their enemies at once

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

CharlestheHammer posted:

you think so but if the coupers had been a little more subtle Bolivia might not have fallen apart

instead they tried to punish all their enemies at once

Ultimately, they simply didn't have enough public support to hold the country and once protestors could cut supply lines then the battle was over.

This is a more tricky situation where Perez really hasn't clearly said what side of the fence he is really on and there is the possibility of another Moreno situation. He runs as left-wing(ish) and then more or less keeps the system going as is when he is in power. The question is if the right-wing/center is going to line up for him like they need to, to beat Arauz.

There is some back and forth that Pachakutik (Perez's party) may have backed the 2010 coup attempt against Correa.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 22:18 on Feb 8, 2021

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011
covid's done a number on cuba

https://www.ft.com/content/3956b50f-621a-4289-90c3-247a2762fae2


Cuba has announced a big expansion of the private sector as the communist government struggles to deal with the worst economic crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union.


Only weeks after devaluing the peso and scrapping a dual currency system, President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s government said over the weekend it would open up most of the economy to private businesses.

Labour Minister Marta Elena Feito Cabrera said that instead of allowing private participation in 127 professions, the government would permit it in more than 2,000, reserving only 124 areas partly or wholly for the state. She did not specify which.


The decision was taken as the Caribbean island confronts rising inflation after the currency devaluation, the first since the 1959 revolution. The government also plans to end subsidies to some state companies, even if that leads to bankruptcies.


Both the monetary reform and the decision to free up the private sector are considered politically risky by analysts. The devaluation has led to increases in the price of most goods, services and utilities, triggering vocal popular complaints despite big rises in state wages and pensions.


Cuba’s fragile economy was already reeling from a tightening of economic sanctions ordered by the Trump administration when Covid-19 hit. The pandemic has cut off most tourism revenue, leaving the import-dependent island desperately short of foreign exchange.


The economy shrank by 11 per cent in 2020 after stagnating for years and imports collapsed by a third, leaving creditors empty-handed and Cubans queueing for hours to purchase everyday goods.

The vital tourism industry saw a close to 80 per cent drop in visitors last year. In November the airports reopened, and a trickle of tourists returned, but a surge in Covid-19 cases appears to be undermining hopes of a rebound.


Cuban economist and reform advocate Ricardo Torres said the move to open up the economy would help create jobs and control inflation.


“It gives the authorities a greater margin of freedom to advance in the restructuring of state companies and reduces the discretion of the bureaucracy,” he said.


The Cuban government is hoping that US president Joe Biden will reverse some of the punitive sanctions imposed by the Trump administration — which in its final days designated Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism — and return to Obama-era detente.


John Kavulich, president of the US-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, said that if Havana successfully pushed through exchange rate liberalisation and expanded the private sector, this would create incentives for Washington to engage.


“The key is the Biden administration must believe the Díaz-Canel administration is serious about restructuring the economy,” he said. “The only way to show that seriousness is to endure the pains of transformation.”


Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba has grappled with how much space to allow private initiative, severely limiting and regulating it.


Authorities appear to have problems uttering the words “private sector”, which is referred to as the “non-state” sector, and “private businesses” which are referred to as the “self-employed”. State media reports of the ministers meeting referred to the latest measure as the “perfecting of self-employment”.


Only in the last few months have private businesses been granted access to wholesale markets and allowed to import and export, though they must use state companies, and they can now partner with foreign investors. A long-promised law granting them company status and putting their rights on par with other economic actors has yet to materialise.


The non-state sector is composed mainly of small private businesses and co-operatives, their employees, artisans, taxi drivers and tradesmen. In agriculture, there are hundreds of thousands of small farms but they must buy inputs from the state and sell their produce to the state.


The labour minister said there were more than 600,000 people in the private sector, some 13 per cent of the labour force and an estimated 40 per cent of them depended mainly on the tourism industry or worked in public transport.


Pavel Vidal, a former Cuban central bank economist who teaches at Colombia’s Universidad Javeriana Cali, said freeing up private business was key to the success of monetary reform that would force restructuring of state businesses and some bankruptcies.


“The self-employed are not going to have it easy in this new beginning due to the complex environment in which they will operate, with few dollars and inputs in the economy, but they will rise little by little,” he said.

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

mila kunis posted:

covid's done a number on cuba

https://www.ft.com/content/3956b50f-621a-4289-90c3-247a2762fae2


Cuba has announced a big expansion of the private sector as the communist government struggles to deal with the worst economic crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union.


Only weeks after devaluing the peso and scrapping a dual currency system, President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s government said over the weekend it would open up most of the economy to private businesses.

Labour Minister Marta Elena Feito Cabrera said that instead of allowing private participation in 127 professions, the government would permit it in more than 2,000, reserving only 124 areas partly or wholly for the state. She did not specify which.


The decision was taken as the Caribbean island confronts rising inflation after the currency devaluation, the first since the 1959 revolution. The government also plans to end subsidies to some state companies, even if that leads to bankruptcies.


Both the monetary reform and the decision to free up the private sector are considered politically risky by analysts. The devaluation has led to increases in the price of most goods, services and utilities, triggering vocal popular complaints despite big rises in state wages and pensions.


Cuba’s fragile economy was already reeling from a tightening of economic sanctions ordered by the Trump administration when Covid-19 hit. The pandemic has cut off most tourism revenue, leaving the import-dependent island desperately short of foreign exchange.


The economy shrank by 11 per cent in 2020 after stagnating for years and imports collapsed by a third, leaving creditors empty-handed and Cubans queueing for hours to purchase everyday goods.

The vital tourism industry saw a close to 80 per cent drop in visitors last year. In November the airports reopened, and a trickle of tourists returned, but a surge in Covid-19 cases appears to be undermining hopes of a rebound.


Cuban economist and reform advocate Ricardo Torres said the move to open up the economy would help create jobs and control inflation.


“It gives the authorities a greater margin of freedom to advance in the restructuring of state companies and reduces the discretion of the bureaucracy,” he said.


The Cuban government is hoping that US president Joe Biden will reverse some of the punitive sanctions imposed by the Trump administration — which in its final days designated Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism — and return to Obama-era detente.


John Kavulich, president of the US-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, said that if Havana successfully pushed through exchange rate liberalisation and expanded the private sector, this would create incentives for Washington to engage.


“The key is the Biden administration must believe the Díaz-Canel administration is serious about restructuring the economy,” he said. “The only way to show that seriousness is to endure the pains of transformation.”


Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba has grappled with how much space to allow private initiative, severely limiting and regulating it.


Authorities appear to have problems uttering the words “private sector”, which is referred to as the “non-state” sector, and “private businesses” which are referred to as the “self-employed”. State media reports of the ministers meeting referred to the latest measure as the “perfecting of self-employment”.


Only in the last few months have private businesses been granted access to wholesale markets and allowed to import and export, though they must use state companies, and they can now partner with foreign investors. A long-promised law granting them company status and putting their rights on par with other economic actors has yet to materialise.


The non-state sector is composed mainly of small private businesses and co-operatives, their employees, artisans, taxi drivers and tradesmen. In agriculture, there are hundreds of thousands of small farms but they must buy inputs from the state and sell their produce to the state.


The labour minister said there were more than 600,000 people in the private sector, some 13 per cent of the labour force and an estimated 40 per cent of them depended mainly on the tourism industry or worked in public transport.


Pavel Vidal, a former Cuban central bank economist who teaches at Colombia’s Universidad Javeriana Cali, said freeing up private business was key to the success of monetary reform that would force restructuring of state businesses and some bankruptcies.


“The self-employed are not going to have it easy in this new beginning due to the complex environment in which they will operate, with few dollars and inputs in the economy, but they will rise little by little,” he said.

RIP to a real one.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

I think that story is somewhat overblown. As it says in the article,

quote:

Authorities appear to have problems uttering the words “private sector”, which is referred to as the “non-state” sector, and “private businesses” which are referred to as the “self-employed”. State media reports of the ministers meeting referred to the latest measure as the “perfecting of self-employment”.
They're not saying private sector because allowing people to work for themselves isn't the same thing as opening up to big business. Cuba has allowed self-employed in the past as well, they're just opening it up to more arenas, and historically they pare that entepreneurship back down again once they've pushed through the crisis. It's sad to see any capitulation to market-based solutions of course but we can only hope they're careful and know what they're doing as they face down this big economic challenge.

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

FrancisFukyomama posted:

didn’t the last time Haitians had a good President hillary immediately couped him? or was that for the min wage vote?
aristide was couped twice
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Haitian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Haitian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat

bill clinton practically supported bush sr's coup when he took over while pretending he was against it

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/madanboukman/status/1358845338979868677?s=19

Pomeroy
Apr 20, 2020

Ardennes posted:

Ultimately, they simply didn't have enough public support to hold the country and once protestors could cut supply lines then the battle was over.

This is a more tricky situation where Perez really hasn't clearly said what side of the fence he is really on and there is the possibility of another Moreno situation. He runs as left-wing(ish) and then more or less keeps the system going as is when he is in power. The question is if the right-wing/center is going to line up for him like they need to, to beat Arauz.

There is some back and forth that Pachakutik (Perez's party) may have backed the 2010 coup attempt against Correa.

https://www.liberationnews.org/will-the-left-return-to-power-in-ecuador/

"Pérez presents himself as a left wing environmentalist and a representative of the country’s Indigenous movement. But he and his political movement have in fact been close allies of Ecuador’s right wing that represents the country’s traditional oligarchy. Pérez has said he is open to trade deals with the United States and has openly courted U.S. officials. He is an avowed opponent of many of the leaders targeted for regime change by the United States, having supported the fascist coup against Evo Morales in Bolivia in 2019 and attempts to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela. Perez’s movement played a role in an unsuccessful coup attempt to remove Rafael Correa from office in 2010."

https://thegrayzone.com/2021/02/06/yaku-perez-pachakutik-ecuador-us-coup/

"Pérez’s ostensibly progressive ideology is filled with contradictions. While the Correista candidate Arauz has proposed giving $1000 checks to one million working-class Ecuadorian families, Pérez has attacked the plan on the grounds that poor citizens would spend all the money on beer in one day."

'The party of Pérez, Pachakutik, identifies as “ecosocialist” and claims to represent Ecuador’s Indigenous communities. But like the candidate that leads it, it employs left-wing rhetoric to paper over regressive goals.'

'Pachakutik is closely linked to NGOs funded by Washington and EU member states. The party’s leaders have been trained by the US government-funded National Democratic Institute (NDI), a CIA cutout that operates under the auspices of the National Endowment for Democracy.'

'In the past, Pérez and Pachakutik helped lead protests against Ecuador’s former President Correa, forming an unspoken alliance with the country’s right-wing oligarchs in a bid to destabilize and overthrow the socialist president. In fact, Pachakutik played a significant role in a US-backed 2010 coup attempt that came close to undemocratically removing Correa from power.'

'The leading right-wing candidate in the 2021 election, the wealthy banker Lasso, is not threatened by the “ecosocialist” rhetoric of Pérez and Pachakutik. He seems keenly aware that the label is just a marketing plot. Lasso publicly declared that if Pérez somehow made it to a second round, Lasso would gladly support Pérez to defeat the Correistas.'

'The banker’s endorsement is unsurprising when one considers that, back in 2017, before he changed his name from Carlos to Yaku, Pérez himself supported Lasso’s presidential bid.'

'Even before the violent regime change operation, Pérez was a harsh critic of Morales, accusing him and Correa of “authoritarianism, machismo, extractivism, and populism.” Pérez flatly refused to recognize the legitimacy of Evo’s government.'

'In 2017, Pérez attacked Evo again, tweeting, “His ignorance is encyclopedic. Evo is biologically Indigenous; in terms of his identity he whitewashed and colonized himself and doesn’t feel or understand the Native cosmovision.”'

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

lol that sounds like an instagram influencer party to a T

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012
christ what an rear end in a top hat

Pomeroy
Apr 20, 2020

i say swears online posted:

lol that sounds like an instagram influencer party to a T

Complete with woke racial essence mysticism

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011
His political views fuse ultra-leftist, anarchistic critiques of existing left-wing states with an objectively right-wing political agenda

so loving tiring

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011

quote:

The Cuban government is hoping that US president Joe Biden will reverse some of the punitive sanctions imposed by the Trump administration — which in its final days designated Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism — and return to Obama-era detente.

so were they just like not paying attention to any parts of the presidential campaign that mentioned cuba

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

the four and a half seconds that karen bass was on the veep shortlist gave me a bigger flutter of hope than the entire 2020 bernie campaign lol

Top City Homo
Oct 15, 2014


Ramrod XTreme

FrancisFukyomama posted:

drat, Lenin Moreno really hosed up his party’s electoral prospects by being a pussy lib, huh

I hope that he and his friends are driven off a cliff

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

Where is a good place to read up on the US embargo against Cuba? I'm curious what documented effects it still has on the Cuban economy, now that its been in place for the better part of a century

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

mila kunis posted:

His political views fuse ultra-leftist, anarchistic critiques of existing left-wing states with an objectively right-wing political agenda

so loving tiring

So he's an ancom

Maximo Roboto
Feb 4, 2012

i say swears online posted:

the four and a half seconds that karen bass was on the veep shortlist gave me a bigger flutter of hope than the entire 2020 bernie campaign lol

why

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


i think the venceremos brigade was kinda cool??

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/OVargas52/status/1359097417317158912?s=20

Trash Ops
Jun 19, 2012

im having fun, isnt everyone else?

this was always the point of sanctions

mortons stork
Oct 13, 2012
Also as a side effect it causes poor people to suffer terribly, which is an excellent bonus if not a goal onto itself for the depraved ruling western elites

World War Mammories
Aug 25, 2006


Trash Ops posted:

this was always the point of sanctions

"we're not going to kill these people, jesus. it's not worth a war. we'll just starve them out."
"what the gently caress, that's also cruel!"
"how DARE you imply that purposefully depriving a nation of material might result in material shortages?!"

babypolis
Nov 4, 2009

mila kunis posted:

His political views fuse ultra-leftist, anarchistic critiques of existing left-wing states with an objectively right-wing political agenda

so loving tiring

i feel like this is going to be the Next Big Thing in fascism

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Ferrinus
Jun 19, 2003

i'm finding this quite easy, i guess in part because i'm a fast type but also because i have a coherent mental model of the world

babypolis posted:

i feel like this is going to be the Next Big Thing in fascism

it has long been understood that the conspiratorial machinations of the judeo-bolshevik "vanguard" only serve to prevent the spontaneous, self-organized working class from attaining what it really needs, which is of course the organic unity of state and nation

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