[Non-Doomsday Economics] Democrats end expanded entitlements, bailout Silicon Valley

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Non-Doomsday Economics] Democrats end expanded entitlements, bailout Silicon Valley

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oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

like are you loving kidding me, we literally went back to the exact same dumbass thing that caused the last crash. Amazing. At least following the dot com bubble, they created a different kind of bubble

# ? Mar 3, 2021 17:49

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# ? May 9, 2024 02:32

Zurtilik: Oct 23, 2015; The Biggest Brain in Guardia

oxsnard posted:

like are you loving kidding me, we literally went back to the exact same dumbass thing that caused the last crash. Amazing. At least following the dot com bubble, they created a different kind of bubble

Just a hiccup on the road to greatness. You know, Edison had to try 1,000 times to perfect the light bulb!

# ? Mar 3, 2021 17:51

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

caveat: goons, myself included, are always wrong, but the fact that they couldn't keep the midday pump into lunch is a bad sign. I also dont day trade anymore fwiw

I'm predicting blood. -3% QQQ.

quote this post

# ? Mar 3, 2021 17:51

Minera: Sep 26, 2007; All your friends and foes,
they thought they knew ya,
but look who's in your heart now.

lol can't wait to buy a house when number dies

blood!

# ? Mar 3, 2021 17:52

V. Illych L.: Apr 11, 2008; ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

i bought a crappy studio in the middle of nowhere but with decent transport connections a while ago and it's increased by like 15% in a year judging by similar units

this is patently insane

# ? Mar 3, 2021 17:52

Carmant: Nov 23, 2015; Treadmill? What's that? Is that some kind of cake?

Can't believe Joe Biden has already ruined the economy like this.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 17:53

Zurtilik: Oct 23, 2015; The Biggest Brain in Guardia

IDK. Cinemark is back to where it was exactly a year ago before the dip. Keep it going little theater!

# ? Mar 3, 2021 17:53

Zurtilik: Oct 23, 2015; The Biggest Brain in Guardia

Let those bank stocks fall to 2009 levels again. I have enough money to buy the dip this time!

# ? Mar 3, 2021 17:54

V. Illych L.: Apr 11, 2008; ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

at the same time, my mortgage interest rate is lower than my cost-of-living salary increase even in these lean years so they're basically subsidising my debt so long as i have a job

there is no way this can go wrong

# ? Mar 3, 2021 17:54

BigPaddy: Jun 30, 2008; That night we performed the rite and opened the gate.
Halfway through, I went to fix us both a coke float.
By the time I got back, he'd gone insane.
Plus, he'd left the gate open and there was evil everywhere.

Bought my current home in 2017 and a realtor valued it at 40% more than I paid for it. Number... go up?

# ? Mar 3, 2021 17:59

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

I felt like a genius for the 50% price appreciation I got on my house in Denver from 2010-2015. It's probably worth 1.2 million now

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:00

Shifty Pony: Dec 28, 2004; Up ta somethin'

house prices in my neighborhood are probably up 20-30%... since December.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:03

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

are you Canadian? That's bananas

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:04

skaboomizzy: Nov 12, 2003; There is nothing I want to be. There is nothing I want to do.
I don't even have an image of what I want to be. I have nothing. All that exists is zero.

My house value is up 150% since 2010

insanity

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:04

The_Franz: Aug 8, 2003

Zurtilik posted:

IDK. Cinemark is back to where it was exactly a year ago before the dip. Keep it going little theater!

theaters are probably never going to fully recover. companies like universal and disney seem to like the profits they see from same-day streaming

it makes sense, mom or dad taking two kids to the theater buys $45 in tickets, maybe $22.50 of which the studio sees. if they pay $30 for early access on disney+, the whole family saves money and disney gets $30

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:04

Zurtilik: Oct 23, 2015; The Biggest Brain in Guardia

I don't actually expect CNK to hit the ~$45 it lived at pre-COVID any time soon. But I think $30-35 within the next month or two doesn't seem unreasonable.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:06

Centrist Committee: Aug 6, 2019

The_Franz posted:

theaters are probably never going to fully recover. companies like universal and disney seem to like the profits they see from same-day streaming

it makes sense, mom or dad taking two kids to the theater buys $45 in tickets, maybe $22.50 of which the studio sees. if they pay $30 for early access on disney+, the whole family saves money and disney gets $30

i can�t wait for the cycle to complete itself, $30 streaming tickets with unskippable preroll ads. hell bring back the fbi piracy warning too

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:07

human garbage bag: Jan 8, 2020; by Fluffdaddy

it's better to invest a house down payment in the stock market and continue to rent.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:10

Shifty Pony: Dec 28, 2004; Up ta somethin'

oxsnard posted:

are you Canadian? That's bananas

Austin Texas.

bidding at $200k over ask won't get you a house. poo poo is completely busted.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:11

Admiral Ray: May 17, 2014; Proud Musk and Dogecoin fanboy

oxsnard posted:

like are you loving kidding me, we literally went back to the exact same dumbass thing that caused the last crash. Amazing. At least following the dot com bubble, they created a different kind of bubble

houses are just bitcoins that don't move.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:12

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

Shifty Pony posted:

Austin Texas.

bidding at $200k over ask won't get you a house. poo poo is completely busted.

drat, need some of that appreciation in the Houston burbs.

I got a job offer in Austin in 2015 but decided on the marginally better paying gig in Houston. Houses were so affordable back then

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:14

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

love this chart btw

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:15

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

if you want permabear porn, I love the commentary from Jon Hussman. Who is wrong btw because number always goes up, but he's great at putting today's insanity in historical terms

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210201/

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:16

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

The_Franz posted:

theaters are probably never going to fully recover. companies like universal and disney seem to like the profits they see from same-day streaming

it makes sense, mom or dad taking two kids to the theater buys $45 in tickets, maybe $22.50 of which the studio sees. if they pay $30 for early access on disney+, the whole family saves money and disney gets $30

Didn't Mulan fail? Are they still shy about releasing big budget films on these platforms?

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:17

poemdexter: Feb 18, 2005; Hooray Indie Games!; College Slice

Judakel posted:

Didn't Mulan fail? Are they still shy about releasing big budget films on these platforms?

No one watched Mulan because you had to pay 30 dollars for Disney+ for the opportunity to pay another 30 to watch Mulan.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:25

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; Can't post for 7 days!

More order numbers for various other industries are coming out. All are down across the board. None of the numbers are below 50 whichever the economy is still "expanding". The slowdown is being attributed to supply chain issues and rising costs of raw materials.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:26

The_Franz: Aug 8, 2003

Judakel posted:

Didn't Mulan fail? Are they still shy about releasing big budget films on these platforms?

mulan was a flop overall, but considered a great success for disney+. it made $35 million it's first weekend on the streaming service, which was pure profit for disney. in contrast, it opened in theaters in china and only made $23 million

tenet, released around the same time in theaters, absolutely bombed with a $9.5 million opening weekend in north america, which translates to about $4.75 million for the studio

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:31

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

Mr Hootington posted:

More order numbers for various other industries are coming out. All are down across the board. None of the numbers are below 50 whichever the economy is still "expanding". The slowdown is being attributed to supply chain issues and rising costs of raw materials.

yeah, but I'm telling you first hand you're gonna see big order numbers come out of the Dallas fed next month. I don't know what that means on a macro scale, but E&P orders and related sectors are absolutely ramping up orders

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:31

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

poemdexter posted:

No one watched Mulan because you had to pay 30 dollars for Disney+ for the opportunity to pay another 30 to watch Mulan.

That's their model going forward, though.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:32

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

Minrad posted:

lol can't wait to buy a house when number dies

blood!

Housing costs will never go down again, we've been in a recession for the past year with millions laid off every month and prices are still up like 18% since this time last year.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:34

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

Judakel posted:

That's their model going forward, though.

small and mid cap tech is getting absolutely crushed today. Banks are keeping the Russell 2k afloat

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:34

The_Franz: Aug 8, 2003

poemdexter posted:

No one watched Mulan because you had to pay 30 dollars for Disney+ for the opportunity to pay another 30 to watch Mulan.

the $8 for disney+ and $30 for the movie is still far cheaper than taking two kids to the theater

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:34

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:35

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

DoomTrainPhD posted:

I believe in a thing called blood. Just listen to the rhythm of the stonks.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:36

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

if i was still trading, I'd be buying puts in SIVB that expire in 3-9 months

it's a real estate play but as a kicker it's a secondary short unicorn play because most of their loans are concentrated in the Bay Area

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:40

Zurtilik: Oct 23, 2015; The Biggest Brain in Guardia

Yeah I took my three to see Frozen 2 and between 5 tickets and concession stand stuff it became like a $60 outing.

But I'm also pretty sure if I drop $30 and watch a film at home my kids will amble away.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:40

Koirhor: Jan 14, 2008; by Fluffdaddy

Shifty Pony posted:

Austin Texas.

bidding at $200k over ask won't get you a house. poo poo is completely busted.

columbus oh, we had to build new because buying an existing home was beyond the pale difficult. My home value is up 30% from 2018.

inventory is completely hosed

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:41

oxsnard: Oct 8, 2003

a bank stock trading at 5x book value lmao!

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:41

Zurtilik: Oct 23, 2015; The Biggest Brain in Guardia

I couldn't even get it to see houses they sold so quick here. The only reason I got the house I have finally is that the seller just basically made a silent auction out of the whole thing.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:42

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# ? May 9, 2024 02:32

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; Can't post for 3 hours!

quote:

Saudi Aramco hints at future yuan bonds in potential coup for China
DUBAI -- Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state-controlled oil company, has raised the possibility of floating yuan-denominated bonds, a move that would mark a significant departure in a traditionally dollar-dominated industry.

A prospectus issued this month by the world's largest oil company stated that renminbi notes "may be issued" under its bond program, though Aramco provided no details about the timing or scale of such an offering. The document laid out risks involved in a float of yuan notes, including liquidity concerns and the currency's limited availability outside China.

The provision underscores both Asia's growing importance to Aramco from a business perspective, as a high-demand market, and oil-producing countries' deepening financial relationships with Beijing.

Because oil transactions are usually settled in dollars, many oil-producing nations have pegged their own currencies to the greenback.

China, seeking to promote international use of the yuan, has made cultivating the "petroyuan" a central part of its currency strategy, establishing a market for yuan-denominated crude oil futures in Shanghai.

An issuance of yuan bonds by Aramco would give the currency's stature a substantial boost, as well as diversify funding sources for Aramco and the Saudi government, which owns the vast majority of the company.

Aramco on Tuesday raised $8 billion in its first foreign-currency bond issue since 2019, apparently denominated entirely in dollars. The funds are expected to go toward paying the generous dividends promised to investors to attract them to Aramco's stock market debut last year.

Market players have raised concerns about the company's swelling debt, and a source familiar with the situation said this offering got a much smaller response than last year's float.

quote:

China is sounding the alarm about a global market bubble
Hong Kong (CNN Business)One of China's most powerful financial officials is sounding the alarm over a bubble in global markets.

Guo Shuqing, the Communist Party boss at the People's Bank of China, told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday that confidence in Chinese markets could be hit by volatility around the world.

"We are really afraid the bubble for foreign financial assets will burst someday," said Guo, who is also chairman of China's Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission

Guo's warning follows concerns expressed elsewhere that bubble-like behavior is spreading through financial markets. Wall Street banks have been fielding questions from clients about whether the runaway equity boom will be followed by a crash resembling the bursting of the dot-com bubble burst 21 years ago.

Investors, hedge fund managers and former central banking officials have all expressed concerns too, as Wall Street trades near record highs even as the United States continues to grapple with the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

Guo echoed such fears, adding that the rallies in US and European markets don't reflect the underlying economic challenges facing both regions as they try to recover from the brutal pandemic recession.

"Such [a] bubble bust could trigger substantial foreign capital inflow to China," wrote analysts at Mizuho Bank in a research note, adding that the regulator said he would study "effective measures" to encourage the free flow of capital while avoiding shocks to financial markets. A huge rush of funds into China could destabilize the world's second biggest economy by rapidly inflating its currency, assets and prices.

The Chinese banking leader also said he's worried about whether China's property sector is at risk of volatility too � an issue that analysts say implies that the country may be ready to tighten its purse strings. President Xi Jinping told an economic conference late last year that the country needs to stabilize the property market in 2021, and Beijing has already taken some measures to do that. In December, regulators issued rules intended to limit lending to the property sector.

Local governments in China, meanwhile, have stepped up measures since the start of this year to cool the market down, including by restricting purchases and reining in developers.

Guo's remarks shook markets in the region. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOM) and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) were both trending upward before Guo's speech, building on Wall Street's rally Monday. But both indexes reversed course soon after. Shanghai's benchmark was down 1.2%, while the Hang Seng fell 1.3%.

Other indexes in the region also fell: Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slumped 0.4%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 (N225) dropped 0.9%. South Korea's Kospi (KOSPI) was the outlier, trading up 1% after markets there were closed Monday for a holiday.

"This indicates how sensitive markets are to policy accommodation being taken away," wrote Stephen Innes, Chief Global Markets Strategist at Axi, in a Tuesday note. "It also highlights that central banks will run at different speeds in pulling away from last year's crisis."

Guo's comments also reflect concerns from Beijing about the risk that rising debt poses to the economy. Property loans accounted for nearly 30% of total loans issued in yuan by the end of 2020, according to central bank data.

And some in China have already been suggesting that it's time for the country to taper fiscal and monetary support � including former finance minister Lou Jinwei, who in December said that a "gradual exit" from loose policy will help stabilize and eventually reduce China's debt ratio.

China spent hundreds of billions of dollars last year in a bid to shore up the country's economy after the pandemic hit. Its efforts to spur activity � including through major infrastructure projects and by offering cash handouts to stimulate spending among citizens � appeared to pay off, as the economy grew 2.3% last year.

Now the country is looking to keep that momentum going while measuring how much monetary support will actually be needed. It's also balancing the recovery with a plan to ensure that some 40% of its population receives Covid-19 vaccines by the end of June � a number that amounts to more than half a billion people.

# ? Mar 3, 2021 18:44

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Non-Doomsday Economics] Democrats end expanded entitlements, bailout Silicon Valley

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