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nwin posted:Maybe a stupid question, but why is everyone buying houses all of a sudden? Metro areas have also been adding more jobs than houses.
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Mar 30, 2021 18:46
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My buy order of NDRA@2.24 went through. For you goons who keep buying low-selling high, what have you been setting your sell orders at? I set mine to 2.60, but I’m starting to think that might be too high. I’m only working with 100 shares atm. I’ve not too familiar with the FDA approval process. How likely is it to go through. Everyone here seems pretty hot on it. That’s a good sign right? Valicious fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Mar 30, 2021 |
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Mar 30, 2021 18:53
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Speaking of Wash Sales, E Trade just introduced a new feature, or assigned it to me. It adjusts your cost basis up like a wash sale does. If you sell all of your 'wash sale' stocks before the end of the year it means nothing! It is for idiots or people trying to do shady tax things. OK, go NDRA!
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Mar 30, 2021 18:53
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https://twitter.com/savstox/status/1376952862572417033 All stocks should be Volkswagen
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Mar 30, 2021 18:56
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excuse me, it's Voltswagon
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Mar 30, 2021 18:59
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Shear Modulus posted:excuse me, it's Voltswagon Can't hear you over all the people at this International House of Burgers
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Mar 30, 2021 19:01
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What are your guys' strategies for puts? I bought a 4/16 14.50 put for AMC just to try out puts after making a few dollars with call options. So far it's going well, but when do you guys sell off? I'm considering holding as long as possible, it should be gaining value as the expiration date approaches, right? Or do you guys have a % that you look for and consider good enough? I know every investor is different and no one can predict anything in this dumb market, just wondering what you guys do with puts.
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Mar 30, 2021 19:33
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Grem posted:I'm considering holding as long as possible, it should be gaining value as the expiration date approaches, right? If you are long the option, it will lose value as you get closer to expiration.
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Mar 30, 2021 19:41
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re: cash investors buying up houses: the problem for buyers who must borrow is that if a house has 5 bids or 20 bids or whatever, it only takes one cash buyer, because sellers greatly prefer them - no mortgage contingency - and that means they can win even with a bid lower than the highest bid. A 5% to 10% discount is common. Consequently, each time one of those cash buyers wins, 5 or 20 or whatever noncash buyers experience that beat, and have the story to complain about. The reality is that investors do make up a significant part of the homebuying numbers, but "significant" is still a lowish percentage. Like 10% or 20% of houses. What is actually happening right now is: demand far outstrips supply in all the places people want to buy houses. There's a reason supply of new homes is short, and it has to do with a year of covid shutdowns, supply problems with construction materials especially wood, and yes, investor money seeking returns when interest rates are low and stocks seem severely overbought. The answer is: more units need to be built, ideally high density housing in the areas people are trying to live in, placed on good public transit corridors, but whatever. Seeing investors speculating on properties and low availability are trailing indicators of supply shortage, investors are seeing upward trends and speculating on them, there's a feedback loop, we call that a speculative bubble, but when there's also high demand from people who actually want to buy and live in those houses, it's not really a bubble because (in stock ticker terms) there's strong support for those numbers. E.g. if speculators/cash investors all bailed tomorrow, prices might drop, but not very far, because everyone who just lost their last five bids still wants to buy a house and has the money to do so at some price near the current highs. Secondarily, there's a trend in many states of people getting permanent work-from-home deals with their employers, and seeking housing further from their former job sites. In California, for example, this has manifested as a dump of the top-end prices in san francisco and rising prices in the bay area suburbs, as people are looking to pay $750k for a house twice as big as the $1.5M house they were paying for in the city, while still staying near family/friends and being able to drive into work twice a month or whatever. It will take a year or two for sudden shifts like that to play out in the market, with new construction following the trend to relieve demand, etc. e. This is 5-year new housing starts data:  source You can see the plunge last spring. It normally takes around a year, but with lumber and labor shortages, many houses started last summer aren't near completion yet. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:55 on Mar 30, 2021 |
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Mar 30, 2021 19:49
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Baddog posted:If you are long the option, it will lose value as you get closer to expiration. How in the world does that work? Wouldn't a put option with a 14.50 strike price be way more valuable a day away from expiration than it would be a month away, assuming the stock stays the same or goes down? Right now AMC would need to jump almost 50% to reach 14.50. If it still needs to go up another 25% or so the day before how could it be worth less?
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Mar 30, 2021 20:01
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Leperflesh posted:A 5% to 10% discount is common. Interesting, I would say the discount is generally 0% but it makes your offer much more appealing. Perhaps it's a regional thing, but on the west coast, pricing is king and terms for closing are a distant 2nd place/tiebreaker. There is certainly a lot of data indicating that all-cash sales are at much lower prices than financed sales, though, and that's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Lower priced homes, tear-downs and "value add" homes are more likely to be bought cash and so the average $/SF price for cash transactions is something like 23% lower than financed homes.
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Mar 30, 2021 20:10
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Grem posted:How in the world does that work? Wouldn't a put option with a 14.50 strike price be way more valuable a day away from expiration than it would be a month away, assuming the stock stays the same or goes down? Right now AMC would need to jump almost 50% to reach 14.50. If it still needs to go up another 25% or so the day before how could it be worth less? The further away from the expiration date you are, the more time the stock has to make a big move so it's more likely that the option will increase even more in value. The closer in time expiration gets, the less room there is for surprises so the value tends towards its intrinsic value, which would be $4-something in your case today. Of course, if it goes down a lot, then it might be worth a lot more on expiration day, but that's the unknown thing which is priced higher the further away expiration is. You probably paid quite a bit for those puts, so the stock has to go down buy at least the price of the put for it to be profitable by expiration day. If the stock is equal to that value far in advance, it might still be profitable due to this time component. Btw I guess you should also look into how your broker settles them if you want to wait that long.
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Mar 30, 2021 20:14
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I've been thinking about what I should consider in terms of diversification and the number of positions I should reasonably have. Here's a little article on diversification from Investopedia, written DEC2020: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/072303.aspquote:Equities can be wonderful, but don't put all of your money in one stock or one sector. Consider creating your own virtual mutual fund by investing in a handful of companies you know, trust and even use in your day-to-day life. I don't have much in foreign stocks outside Volkswagen and, well, VWO, though I guess Canadian stocks (I have very little in SU) count. Maybe I should look at a company I know and like, like Komatsu or Mitsubishi (MUFG?). That said, I have 27 different stocks, but a lot of it is index funds, so I don't have to think about those too much. What's your rule(s) for the number of different holdings how diverse your portfolio is?
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Mar 30, 2021 20:22
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Ola posted:The further away from the expiration date you are, the more time the stock has to make a big move so it's more likely that the option will increase even more in value. The closer in time expiration gets, the less room there is for surprises so the value tends towards its intrinsic value, which would be $4-something in your case today. Of course, if it goes down a lot, then it might be worth a lot more on expiration day, but that's the unknown thing which is priced higher the further away expiration is. Interesting, thanks. It's just 1 put, I'm learning so didn't want to risk too much.
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Mar 30, 2021 20:29
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Just wanted to add to Leperflesh's post:Leperflesh posted:The reality is that investors do make up a significant part of the homebuying numbers, but "significant" is still a lowish percentage. Like 10% or 20% of houses. quote:Secondarily, there's a trend in many states of people getting permanent work-from-home deals with their employers, and seeking housing further from their former job sites. In California, for example, this has manifested as a dump of the top-end prices in san francisco and rising prices in the bay area suburbs, as people are looking to pay $750k for a house twice as big as the $1.5M house they were paying for in the city, while still staying near family/friends and being able to drive into work twice a month or whatever. I don't think it's even possible for most cities to keep up with demand. New subdivisions everywhere get snatched up by a combination of rental property investors, newly-landed immigrants, and existing residents who are trying to buy into the market. And each group is growing in numbers each year. If a nation-wide virus pandemic couldn't cause the bubble to pop I really don't know what will. melon cat fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Mar 30, 2021 |
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Mar 30, 2021 20:29
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Is there some futures or something expiring today? NQ seems like it's pinning to 12900.
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Mar 30, 2021 20:31
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Ola posted:Is there some futures or something expiring today? NQ seems like it's pinning to 12900. I think it’s just anticipation, there’s been big moves into close several times recently. 3950 /ES is closest thing to a pin probably, and weeklies on QQQ point to 315 which is around 12900 on /NQ but I don’t think there’s a ton of gravity to any of those numbers.
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Mar 30, 2021 20:45
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:I think it’s just anticipation, there’s been big moves into close several times recently. 3950 /ES is closest thing to a pin probably, and weeklies on QQQ point to 315 which is around 12900 on /NQ but I don’t think there’s a ton of gravity to any of those numbers. You're right, it unpinned with a vengeance just now. e: lol re-pinned Ola fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Mar 30, 2021 |
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Mar 30, 2021 20:52
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Valicious posted:My buy order of NDRA@2.24 went through. For you goons who keep buying low-selling high, what have you been setting your sell orders at? I set mine to 2.60, but I’m starting to think that might be too high. I generally do 2.25 to 2.60. Yes it can go both higher and lower, but I'm fine with the lower risk margin there.
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Mar 30, 2021 21:02
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Lawlicaust posted:I generally do 2.25 to 2.60. Yes it can go both higher and lower, but I'm fine with the lower risk margin there. Thanks. I cancelled my sell order, but I’ll put it back tomorrow. I wanna see what it opens at
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Mar 30, 2021 21:20
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melon cat posted:It's even happening in Buffalo, NY of all places. Any detached house that offers 3 BR + 1 Bath has lineups of people before the door is unlocked on showing day. Everyone wants space for a home office and people are terrified of living in high-rise condos with common elements. No one wants to be stuck in a shoebox condo when doing WFH or dealing with another COVID lockdown. Lots of old people I've spoken with have decided to stay in their detached homes for as long as they physically can. They want to keep their personal space and backyards. This seems backwards looking. There aren't any more lockdowns coming. Count me as skeptical that everyone is going to stay permanently out in the burbs and there will suddenly be a civilization level fear of living in dense areas. Give it a year and this will all be a distant memory. I'm expecting a lot of buyers remorse by Summer 2022.
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Mar 30, 2021 21:27
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paternity suitor posted:This seems backwards looking. There aren't any more lockdowns coming. Count me as skeptical that everyone is going to stay permanently out in the burbs and there will suddenly be a civilization level fear of living in dense areas. Give it a year and this will all be a distant memory. I'm expecting a lot of buyers remorse by Summer 2022. I doubt it. Especially the wealthier class wants their kids in the "good" school districts, and countless companies are implementing permanent work-from-home. They always wanted a suburban house. Lots of them were in the city only because of the insane commutes inherent in living in the burbs and working in the city. Even if there is "buyer's remorse", it's insanely expensive to sell a house you just bought: given the transaction costs, and also a likely rising interest rate scenario, you're losing something like 10% of your money and then taking on a worse mortgage to do that. I don't think it's "fear of living in dense areas" that's driven these shifts: it's economic incentives, which will persist.
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Mar 30, 2021 22:10
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Grem posted:How in the world does that work? Wouldn't a put option with a 14.50 strike price be way more valuable a day away from expiration than it would be a month away, assuming the stock stays the same or goes down? Right now AMC would need to jump almost 50% to reach 14.50. If it still needs to go up another 25% or so the day before how could it be worth less? You want to read up on the greeks! Specifically, theta(for time), which measures the daily loss of value of an option. Like, you can see the value decay up front when you buy an option (you may have to turn that on in your broker's option chain tho) Also intrinsic vs extrinsic value. And maybe slippage.(the difference between bid/asks) Like, your option is worth $1450. Your break even is the value minus whatever you paid for it. If you're somehow on a strike price that is unpopular or doesn't have a lot of open interest there may be a wide spread between the bid/ask options to sell it, but you can also make use of Limit/good till filled orders when trying to sell or buy options, so you don't have to take the price at the moment.
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Mar 30, 2021 22:12
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paternity suitor posted:This seems backwards looking. There aren't any more lockdowns coming. Count me as skeptical that everyone is going to stay permanently out in the burbs and there will suddenly be a civilization level fear of living in dense areas. Give it a year and this will all be a distant memory. I'm expecting a lot of buyers remorse by Summer 2022. And sure maybe some people will regret moving to the exurbs but that's been the trend for a long time, now. It's extremely rare for people to displace their family's suburban home setup (with its private yard, many bedrooms, etc) and forcefully downsize them to a downtown condo. A lot of people lived in the downtown areas entirely for work reasons, then left for the burbs once they started a family. COVID just accelerated the already existing suburbanization process. melon cat fucked around with this message at 22:40 on Mar 30, 2021 |
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Mar 30, 2021 22:34
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melon cat posted:How is it backwards? There's a lot of mental trauma associated with the COVID experience that people are permanently adopting the "hunker down" mindset. People want more private living space, not less. COVID-19 is going to be the defining historical moment that will live in a lot of people's heads for the rest of their lives. Some people never recovered and are still reeling from the '08 financial crisis, nevermind the economic fallout from COVID. I think this is a great example of how all investment decisions are entirely based on superficial reasoning straight from the gut. It's all made up and not based on any real data or knowledge of anything, so invest your money based on what other idiots that know nothing might think.
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Mar 30, 2021 22:40
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Fame Douglas posted:I think this is a great example of how all investment decisions are basically based on superficial reasoning straight from the gut. It's all made up and not based on any real data, so invest your money based on what other idiots that know nothing might think. "Welcome to the equities market where everything is made up and the points don't matter."
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Mar 30, 2021 22:41
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Shear Modulus posted:more or less, yes. it's not so much rich people as institutional investors Extremely cool that in 4 years everyone in town will be splitting the rent on 10 houses while 150,000 houses sit empty and the rent on apartments that have been vacant for 9 years continues to go up.
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Mar 30, 2021 22:54
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bought: 2 $PLUG 9/17 25p @ $3.30, shortly before close today not buying their... 10.4% gain today on news of a mediocre joint plant to be finished like 3 years from now, maybe. also ICLN is changing its index methodology at the end of the week and they're gonna sell a lot of shares of $PLUG at that time. risk to this play is biden somehow funding $plug directly and the meme crowd buying a million calls on it (they were buying calls today) but its price/sales is stratospheric, it loses money, hydrogen is not the near-term future, they have lawsuits from accounting fraud/failure, and the valuation is a joke. russell 2k reconstitution happens the last day of june so it'll lose IWM volume support then. the long expiry gives me more time to win. we'll see how it goes.
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Mar 30, 2021 23:10
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A HORNY SWEARENGEN posted:Extremely cool that in 4 years everyone in town will be splitting the rent on 10 houses while 150,000 houses sit empty and the rent on apartments that have been vacant for 9 years continues to go up. There's maybe increasing appetite for a tax on vacant homes, that'd be real nice.
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Mar 30, 2021 23:18
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Grem posted:How in the world does that work? Wouldn't a put option with a 14.50 strike price be way more valuable a day away from expiration than it would be a month away, assuming the stock stays the same or goes down? Right now AMC would need to jump almost 50% to reach 14.50. If it still needs to go up another 25% or so the day before how could it be worth less? In addition to what others have said (learning extrinsic vs intrinsic value, theta decay and other Greeks), I’ve been using https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/ to visualize decay and try to set up entry and exit points for options. There are other variables that don’t make it 100% accurate (I think) but it’s helped me to establish some strategies for option plays.
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Mar 30, 2021 23:46
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Leperflesh posted:There's maybe increasing appetite for a tax on vacant homes, that'd be real nice. I hope so. NYC shitlords are just letting tons of inventory sit vacant because they don’t want to show lower rent prices for the next few years. It would go a long way to solving housing issues, especially in NYC.
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Mar 30, 2021 23:49
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Leperflesh posted:There's maybe increasing appetite for a tax on vacant homes, that'd be real nice. Housing/shelter is a basic necessity everyone needs, and it's loving stupid this is how we have to work towards making sure everyone gets it.
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Mar 31, 2021 00:33
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Red posted:Housing/shelter is a basic necessity everyone needs, and it's loving stupid this is how we have to work towards making sure everyone gets it. reported for questioning capitalism in the stonks thread
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Mar 31, 2021 00:36
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the original point of property taxes was to enforce "use it or lose it", punitive vacancy taxes are a reversion to the mean idle lands are the devil's plaything
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Mar 31, 2021 00:37
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Property taxes are regressive because rich people don’t spend 40% of their income on housing.
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Mar 31, 2021 00:39
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...yet
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Mar 31, 2021 00:42
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jokes posted:Property taxes are regressive because rich people don’t spend 40% of their income on housing. Depends on what your definition of rich is, imo. I think housing expense is a pretty steady % of income for quiiiiite a while. Like, yeah, people could keep their same house for 40 years while their income grows but... lol
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Mar 31, 2021 00:44
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Jeff Bezos could buy the 10 most expensive houses in the US and not spend 1% of his net worth. And the most expensive house is like $200 million. People who make a million dollars a year aren't spending $400k on housing either. It's a nonsense regressive system just like toll roads.
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Mar 31, 2021 00:48
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jokes posted:Jeff Bezos could buy the 10 most expensive houses in the US and not spend 10% of his net worth. And the most expensive house is like $200 million. Lol probably closer to the 1000 most expensive houses in the US. (That would be an average of $18,000,000 a house)
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Mar 31, 2021 00:52
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Property taxes are a form of wealth tax, and should be progressive just like wealth taxes ought to be: but, the only way we currently have to find the value of a property to tax it, is by reference to market prices which are themselves warped. Property taxes historically were also once used as a mechanism to take property away from the poor small-scale farmers and turn them all into sharecroppers for the wealthy. Our current system in California is especially warped because of prop 13: property values are fixed at the price of sale plus a below-inflation maximum annual increase, resulting in houses owned for decades having taxes far lower than houses just bought... and those tax rates are inheritable. It's a system that creates, essentially, generational wealth and landed gentry. What I'm getting at is, property taxes are fraught, and not a simple thing. But taxing empty homes forces homeowners to either hurry up and move into their house (like, finish your remodel or whatever), or, rent or sell it so someone else gets to have a home. It's a recognition that the ownership of property is a privilege, not a right, and that part of the reason the whole country agrees that individuals can own property at all, is because of a general recognition that they're going to do something with a societal good with it: live on it, work it, harvest it, or even just preserve it in a natural state. Speculating on its value without doing any of those things sucks because it keeps people homeless, reduces population density in exactly the places we want higher density, and financially drives the housing industry to build more homes than we actually need, which is wasteful of land, infrastructure, and resources. It's possible to tax property in a progressive manner without forcing grandma to sell her retirement home, the bugaboo that always winds up dragged up when people talk about raising property taxes. Exactly how to do so is probably beyond the scope of the stonks thread, but it's worth understanding what is possible and what people are discussing, given it will likely have impacts on our investments.
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Mar 31, 2021 01:03
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