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Ror
Oct 21, 2010

😸Everything's 🗞️ purrfect!💯🤟


Sweet summer children who don't know the real cold of a bear winter.

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cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Source4Leko
Jul 25, 2007


Dinosaur Gum

I'd be more worried if I had more than 4% of my money not in index funds or if I actually expected to ever be able to retire anyway.

Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.

Source4Leko posted:

I'd be more worried if I had more than 4% of my money not in index funds or if I actually expected to ever be able to retire anyway.

Age 65 66 67 68 69 70 will be here sooner than you think, better plan your finances now!

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

Hell yeah baby added 500 more goon

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Lol retirement

Also uhhh

https://twitter.com/erinjonesnews/status/1416114982522179597?s=19

Source4Leko
Jul 25, 2007


Dinosaur Gum

Red posted:

Age 65 66 67 68 69 70 will be here sooner than you think, better plan your finances now!

I'll keep my real thoughts in the climate thread but this is really just for amusement for me and I am almost at the number fidelity says I should be for my age and I just can't bring myself to care.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Cacafuego posted:


Also, :lol: at a financial asset manager CEO being named “Dollarhide”

Keep buyin', buyin', buyin'
Though the times are tryin'
Keep those stonkies buyin', Dollarhide

Through plague, Fed and weather
Hell bent for leather
Wishin' Elon was by my side

All the things I'm missin'
Lambos, coke and kissin'
Are waiting at the end of my ride

Move 'em on, pump 'em up
Move 'em on, pump 'em up
Move 'em on, pump 'em up, Dollarhide
Dump 'em out, meme 'em in
Dump 'em out, meme 'em in
Dump 'em out, meme 'em in, Dollarhide

the original "dogies" work too

Sokani
Jul 20, 2006



Bison
SPB is my one green stock today. Keep making money in... whatever it is you do.

Man I'm bad at research.

Space Fish
Oct 14, 2008

The original Big Tuna.


I piled onto CCIV when it dropped to ~$20 over a month ago, was up nearly 9K a week ago, felt great. Then it dipped here and there and I held on, because I thought it would recover, even in the event of a post-merger dip.
Fast-forward to today and I've jumped ship at +3K, with the price still dipping lower in real time.
"Don't just sit there and watch all the turkeys leave your open trap" meets "cutting your winners and holding your losers would be like starving your flowers to water your weeds." Either way, nobody got hurt taking a profit. On to the next wave...

Warmachine
Jan 30, 2012



Space Fish posted:

I piled onto CCIV when it dropped to ~$20 over a month ago, was up nearly 9K a week ago, felt great. Then it dipped here and there and I held on, because I thought it would recover, even in the event of a post-merger dip.
Fast-forward to today and I've jumped ship at +3K, with the price still dipping lower in real time.
"Don't just sit there and watch all the turkeys leave your open trap" meets "cutting your winners and holding your losers would be like starving your flowers to water your weeds." Either way, nobody got hurt taking a profit. On to the next wave...

Realized profit is the only profit that matters.

But it was a fun day watching my plays get more and more in the money as the Hindenburg went down.

BigPaddy
Jun 30, 2008

That night we performed the rite and opened the gate.
Halfway through, I went to fix us both a coke float.
By the time I got back, he'd gone insane.
Plus, he'd left the gate open and there was evil everywhere.


If you guys really are taking a bath when the market is down a few days you really need to look into some bearish hedges. One thing I do is sell cash covered puts of UVXY because if the market takes a down turn it usually means higher volatility. My UXVY puts closed at 50% profit today with 35 days left on them, I usually buy around 45 days left to expiration. So I can throw some more on and wait for everyone to stop trading and get hosed of course.

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



BigPaddy posted:

If you guys really are taking a bath when the market is down a few days you really need to look into some bearish hedges. One thing I do is sell cash covered puts of UVXY because if the market takes a down turn it usually means higher volatility. My UXVY puts closed at 50% profit today with 35 days left on them, I usually buy around 45 days left to expiration. So I can throw some more on and wait for everyone to stop trading and get hosed of course.

The 0dte puts I grabbed as the other leg of my SPY straddle worked really well when things tanked after Powell talked but I stupidly thought that was the end of the bad times and now have a ton of naked exposure to these past couple bad days.

She usually bounces back and it's all gambling money. Oh well, still learning.

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"
I didn’t really actively trade much at all this week and it’s easily my worst week ever. Down 11% and aside from CLF nothing stands out as the culprit.

Cyber Sandwich
Nov 16, 2011

Now, Digital!
I'm checking in on a couple of my long term bets as of late.

XPENG passed a self-driving test with flying colors with its P7 model.

quote:

...equipped with 31 autonomous driving sensors powered by the Xavier System-on-Chip supercomputing platform, 5 high-precision millimeter wave radars, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 4 autonomous driving surround-view cameras, 10 autonomous driving high-sensitivity cameras and sub-systems, supporting its meter-level high-precision positioning system.

Gadgets!
:science:

Quick Google EV sedan retail price estimate:
Xpeng P7 $33-50k.
Tesla Model 3 $39-57k.

Nio's cheapest sedan offer:
Nio ET7 $69k+

There are pretty positive reviews for Xpeng from Zacks.

quote:

The consensus estimate for 2021 earnings and sales indicates year-over-year growth of 40.9% and 58.8%, respectively.

Money!
:10bux::10bux:

So why does the stock price suck?
:shrug:
Maybe it's because they sold their cars on Alibaba during Singles Day and ate the wrath of the PRC.

Cyber Sandwich fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Jul 16, 2021

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


nice to have a mix of longs and puts right about now

I took profit on $LEVI midday and got myself a long-dated $CVNA carvana put

used car prices have effectively peaked:
https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html
...and detroit's auto production is gonna ramp up further as the semi shortage goes away in 2H20.

CVNA will have great revenue in 2Q, but once again probably no profit, and they're gonna be bagholding a lot of expensive cars at the peak since they buy-at-any-price to drive their revenue growth story. So in 3Q, q/q sales growth will suffer (or contract), and profit will implode. Wall Street will see this coming and act accordingly.

CVNA having a market cap larger than KMX (Carmax) is nonsensical. Also, this is a play on the delta variant. If delta lockdown fear spreads, people aren't gonna be racing out to spend top dollar on used cars. Or at least these 'reopening' stocks will get punished.

Axel Serenity
Sep 27, 2002
But... But Fridays are supposed to have Power Hour :negative:

Fireside Nut
Feb 10, 2010

turp


pmchem posted:

nice to have a mix of longs and puts right about now

I took profit on $LEVI midday and got myself a long-dated $CVNA carvana put

used car prices have effectively peaked:
https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html
...and detroit's auto production is gonna ramp up further as the semi shortage goes away in 2H20.

CVNA will have great revenue in 2Q, but once again probably no profit, and they're gonna be bagholding a lot of expensive cars at the peak since they buy-at-any-price to drive their revenue growth story. So in 3Q, q/q sales growth will suffer (or contract), and profit will implode. Wall Street will see this coming and act accordingly.

CVNA having a market cap larger than KMX (Carmax) is nonsensical. Also, this is a play on the delta variant. If delta lockdown fear spreads, people aren't gonna be racing out to spend top dollar on used cars. Or at least these 'reopening' stocks will get punished.

Fascinating DD, thanks for sharing. Makes me wish I traded options lol


Yeah it was a tough red week but at least my baby MRNA absolutely crushed it the last few days on news it will be added to the S&P500 soon. It was the first stock I purchased after inheriting a small brokerage account and it’s still been my best performer so far :unsmith:

Space Fish
Oct 14, 2008

The original Big Tuna.


BigPaddy posted:

If you guys really are taking a bath when the market is down a few days you really need to look into some bearish hedges. One thing I do is sell cash covered puts of UVXY...

I agree, with municipal/treasury bonds as my hedge.

Options look like a bullet train to the red zone, though I could always stand to learn (if not lose) more.

street doc
Feb 20, 2019

Fireside Nut posted:

Fascinating DD, thanks for sharing. Makes me wish I traded options lol


Yeah it was a tough red week but at least my baby MRNA absolutely crushed it the last few days on news it will be added to the S&P500 soon. It was the first stock I purchased after inheriting a small brokerage account and it’s still been my best performer so far :unsmith:

I could have joined them in 2013 but nooooo, I had to stay focused on antibodies. FML

Cacafuego
Jul 22, 2007

I’m holding THCB at the moment. Do I have to do anything for my shares to become MVST when they merge, with the vote possibly next week? Or do they just “become” MVST shares when the merger goes through?

Cacafuego fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Jul 17, 2021

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

My IPOE turned into SOFI the next day

Based on what I've read in this thread, if you have E-Trade, they're gonna charge you a $38 reorg fee

I held my IPOE in Robinhood and it just transmogrified with no fee

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Found this site that tracks redditors track record on stock calls. Thought it was pretty interesting: https://www.markovchained.com/

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Straddle/strangle play at open tomorrow?

Cacafuego
Jul 22, 2007

So, with the olympics about to collapse due to rampant covid, as well as spiking worldwide infections due to lower than expected vaccination rates I’m wondering if we’ll have a small (er) drop that echoes March 2020.

Perhaps buy puts? Perhaps keep some cash to dump into fire sale stocks?

What’s everyone’s plans for the next few months if there’s another drop like last year? I know we won’t be locking down again, but part of me feels the market will drop due to fear.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Cacafuego posted:

Perhaps buy puts? Perhaps keep some cash to dump into fire sale stocks?

already partially repositioned to both those strategies

this is a good chart to pay attention to
https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...PRT~SWE~IDN~AUS

could be a lot of bad headlines this week both related to earnings and to covid. should be interesting.

Cyber Sandwich
Nov 16, 2011

Now, Digital!

pmchem posted:

already partially repositioned to both those strategies

this is a good chart to pay attention to
https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...PRT~SWE~IDN~AUS

could be a lot of bad headlines this week both related to earnings and to covid. should be interesting.

That graph looks cool but drat, I don't think they could have chosen a duller color palette.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Cacafuego posted:

So, with the olympics about to collapse due to rampant covid, as well as spiking worldwide infections due to lower than expected vaccination rates I’m wondering if we’ll have a small (er) drop that echoes March 2020.

Perhaps buy puts? Perhaps keep some cash to dump into fire sale stocks?

What’s everyone’s plans for the next few months if there’s another drop like last year? I know we won’t be locking down again, but part of me feels the market will drop due to fear.

I have no data but I feel like everybody is nervous and anticipating a correction so bad news followed by a drop may just start a wave of panic selling.

Most likely we'll just set new highs.

tangy yet delightful
Sep 13, 2005



Unless covid infects like Biden or something I don't believe we'll ever see another covid stock market drop. With that said I have our small little business that contributes a bit to retirement every month and if there is a big drop I'll shovel in a larger amount when the drop happens instead of Q4 like I usually do.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


:same:

With OPEC+ raising oil production, I don't see additional COVID lockdowns.

The Big Jesus
Oct 29, 2007

#essereFerrari

tangy yet delightful posted:

Unless covid infects like Biden or something I don't believe we'll ever see another covid stock market drop. With that said I have our small little business that contributes a bit to retirement every month and if there is a big drop I'll shovel in a larger amount when the drop happens instead of Q4 like I usually do.

Foxtrot strain wiped out 69% of the world population. I log in to vanguard from my underground bunker. "Up 420% over the last month, I see. Must've been priced in."

The Anime Liker
Aug 8, 2009

by VideoGames
Covid-21 wipes out everyone but weirdo shut-ins who never go outside.

We check the news to see if there's anything about the NDRA FDA approval.

Space Fish
Oct 14, 2008

The original Big Tuna.


The mutations stop with the "goon variant," which is easily treated when detected in the liver. $GOON immediately plummets, as this is the fabled news to sell on.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

cr0y posted:

Straddle/strangle play at open tomorrow?




A "Texas two-step bankruptcy", are you making GBS threads me? That's the real loving name for this maneuver?

What sort of limits are there for how small they can make this new entity that is responsible for all the liability? Just "don't push it tooooooo far"?

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.
Since SAVE stock is so low should I buy a share or two more? I can't imagine it saying under $26 long term.

Simsandwich
Feb 15, 2007
Degen gambled on leverage into VIX futures last night and up 60% as a result, ymmv but can see more blood ahead

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Maybe I should flip to puts at open and save the entire market for your guys.

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
When my small cap put expired just barely out of the money on Friday this was inevitable. Every single time with puts.

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Surely today will be the bottom :grin:

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Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination

Subvisual Haze posted:

When my small cap put expired just barely out of the money on Friday this was inevitable. Every single time with puts.

how?? lol they've been getting slaughtered for like two weeks lol

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