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dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
https://mobile.twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1419024997448884230

Which job does he have lined up already?

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Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Burgerville is awesome, I’m horribly allergic to dairy like, cramps rashes abdominal dysfunction, but I would have one Burgerville berry shake per year, because it’s just that good good

[=“Strawberry Panda” post=“516456963”]
Whenever I remember Zoran Dragic played for the Heat in shocked because I do not think I watched a minute of him playing.
[/quote]

I don’t remember if this is real or something that I just imagined, but I feel like there was a stretch for the heat were So injured that zoran was getting a lot of playing time and he was actually decent for like two weeks. That was the highlight of his NBA career, being a zero minutes per game guy usually. Zach lowe may have even written about it at some point.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Dejan Bimble posted:


I don’t remember if this is real or something that I just imagined, but I feel like there was a stretch for the heat were So injured that zoran was getting a lot of playing time and he was actually decent for like two weeks. That was the highlight of his NBA career, being a zero minutes per game guy usually. Zach lowe may have even written about it at some point.

I think it was literally one game at the end of the season:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dragizo01/gamelog/2015


But then he never played in the NBA again

cisneros
Apr 18, 2006
I can’t believe Charles Boozer didn’t make into the league

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
https://towardsdatascience.com/which-nba-teams-are-best-at-drafting-20070ccd1702

This fellow attempted to quantify which teams have done well I would have done poorly in the draft over the last 12 years. Pretty good read

[quote="“Lockback”" post="“516460040”"]
I think it was literally one game at the end of the season:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dragizo01/gamelog/2015


But then he never played in the NBA again
[/quote]

I think you’re right, way to go, Zoran, way
to get that bone

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming

Dejan Bimble posted:

https://towardsdatascience.com/which-nba-teams-are-best-at-drafting-20070ccd1702

This fellow attempted to quantify which teams have done well I would have done poorly in the draft

Pretty surprised Charlotte ranks just slightly below average but I guess there’s less opportunity cost whiffing on the 11th pick over and over

Spacebump
Dec 24, 2003

Dallas Mavericks: Generations
What we really need to happen is all the Balls get on one team, all the Holidays get on another, and then both teams will need to a Lopez and an Antetokounmpo on the roster. Then play lineups with only those players against each other.

Make it happen Bucks and Hornets.

WhyteRyce
Dec 30, 2001

Remember when the Suns were collecting all the least talented siblings

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Spacebump posted:

What we really need to happen is all the Balls get on one team, all the Holidays get on another, and then both teams will need to a Lopez and an Antetokounmpo on the roster. Then play lineups with only those players against each other.

Make it happen Bucks and Hornets.

Put the plumlees on Charlotte too

gloom
Feb 1, 2003
distracted from distraction by distraction

WhyteRyce posted:

Remember when the Suns were collecting all the least talented siblings
Are there still multiple Morrises in the league? Feels like they should be part of this brother team thing.

WhyteRyce
Dec 30, 2001

One of my favorite draft moments was Blake Griffins brother getting drafted in the same year but his family had already left the arena by then

Strawberry Panda
Nov 4, 2007

Breakfast Defecting, Slow Dick Touching, Root Beer Barreling SwagVP

gloom posted:

Are there still multiple Morrises in the league? Feels like they should be part of this brother team thing.

Yep! One is in LA and the other is in... LA!

There should also be a Porter Jr clause here since there are so many of them, even though they're enjoy related.

Feel like we should include Portis Jr as well.

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming

Spacebump posted:

What we really need to happen is all the Balls get on one team, all the Holidays get on another, and then both teams will need to a Lopez and an Antetokounmpo on the roster. Then play lineups with only those players against each other.

Make it happen Bucks and Hornets.

Hornets also have the Martin twins and one of the McDaniels

Trading Rozier for Lonzo to almost definitely makes Charlotte worse but just switching everything on defense would be fun

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Dejan Bimble posted:

https://towardsdatascience.com/which-nba-teams-are-best-at-drafting-20070ccd1702

This fellow attempted to quantify which teams have done well I would have done poorly in the draft over the last 12 years. Pretty good read

I think you’re right, way to go, Zoran, way
to get that bone

The Cavs drafting is honestly a bigger travesty than the Browns over the same time period, and the browns basically have drafted well like 3 times in the last 15.

Sexton and Irving are essentially the only good picks we’ve made, and Irving was a layup while Sexton was probably undervalued because of size.

Otherwise? Bennett has claim to worst #1 ever. Garland could be good but didn’t make sense to draft with Sexton and probably has stunted his development. Okoro appears to be the second coming of Keith Bogans. Harris was arguably a good find but wasn’t developed by us. Sergey Karasev? Lol. Dion Waiters might honestly be the third best guy depending on what happens with Darius. Any of the good picks we find in the second or whatever just get traded.

I Before E
Jul 2, 2012

TheGreyGhost posted:

The Cavs drafting is honestly a bigger travesty than the Browns over the same time period, and the browns basically have drafted well like 3 times in the last 15.

Sexton and Irving are essentially the only good picks we’ve made, and Irving was a layup while Sexton was probably undervalued because of size.

Otherwise? Bennett has claim to worst #1 ever. Garland could be good but didn’t make sense to draft with Sexton and probably has stunted his development. Okoro appears to be the second coming of Keith Bogans. Harris was arguably a good find but wasn’t developed by us. Sergey Karasev? Lol. Dion Waiters might honestly be the third best guy depending on what happens with Darius. Any of the good picks we find in the second or whatever just get traded.

Drafting Wiggins got you Kevin Love without having to play Wiggins, which seems like a win.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

I Before E posted:

Drafting Wiggins got you Kevin Love without having to play Wiggins, which seems like a win.

Yeah, I wish this adjusted for guys who played their first minute with the team vs who happened to hold the draft pick. The former is far more relavent.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

🤌🤌🤌

Dejan Bimble posted:

https://towardsdatascience.com/which-nba-teams-are-best-at-drafting-20070ccd1702

This fellow attempted to quantify which teams have done well I would have done poorly in the draft over the last 12 years. Pretty good read

So their draftscore was a sliding metric based on the LEBRON stat. That stat itself is a weighted score of offensive/defensive player impact plus-minus which uses a methodology that was adjusted for 'luck'.

https://www.bball-index.com/player-impact-plus-minus/ posted:

The most clear example of this variance comes from opponent 3P%, which a team has relatively limited control over but can drastically shift how a team looks in raw ORTG and DRTG.

Using these luck-adjusted plus-minus values as an input, along with the boxscore, PIPM is one of the most accurate publicly available impact metrics in terms of predicting future results.

I kind of disagree with measurements that do this. We already see that problem with other magnitude based projections in statistics.

Either way, regardless of the legitimacy of the statistic, the article itself compares players LEBRON scores from selections before and after them. I think that in itself is a poor way to measure success at drafting. Not even taking into account the myriad of ways players could bust or be successful on other teams, it ignores players being surrounded by successful talent already. As in it's pretty easy for the Lakers to draft when they go from Kobe to Lebron with a bunch of high picks in between. It also tries to take into account GMs having limited picks, or later picks, but the author himself admits its a crappy metric in the dataset spreadsheet he provided.

Hashtag Banterzone
Dec 8, 2005


Lifetime Winner of the willkill4food Honorary Bad Posting Award in PWM


Add in picks as required

Carlosologist
Oct 13, 2013

Revelry in the Dark

There should be an off-season competition to see who can create the most diabolical and nonsensical trade machine proposal

JackBandit
Jun 6, 2011
They also had the Knicks as the 6th or 7th best drafting team. That’s insane to me (obi toppin, Knox, ntilikina, etc. almost none of their draft picks generated any value for them). I’m guessing most of their score comes from Mitchell Robinson, so it seems too weighted towards that. It needs some sort of Bayesian prior so that it doesn’t interpret good luck so meaningfully.

They also had KAT as being the 3rd or 4th “best” draft pick, which doesn’t make any sense.

kingcobweb
Apr 16, 2005
If your model for evaluating draft picks doesn’t have Anthony Bennett as the worst draft pick in the modern era, your model sucks.

NickRoweFillea
Sep 27, 2012

doin thangs

Dejan Bimble posted:

https://towardsdatascience.com/which-nba-teams-are-best-at-drafting-20070ccd1702

This fellow attempted to quantify which teams have done well I would have done poorly in the draft over the last 12 years. Pretty good read

I think you’re right, way to go, Zoran, way
to get that bone

Wexler/Kleiman at the top and Chris Wallace at the bottom. The agony and the ecstasy

Strawberry Panda
Nov 4, 2007

Breakfast Defecting, Slow Dick Touching, Root Beer Barreling SwagVP

JackBandit posted:

They also had the Knicks as the 6th or 7th best drafting team. That’s insane to me (obi toppin, Knox, ntilikina, etc. almost none of their draft picks generated any value for them). I’m guessing most of their score comes from Mitchell Robinson, so it seems too weighted towards that. It needs some sort of Bayesian prior so that it doesn’t interpret good luck so meaningfully.

They also had KAT as being the 3rd or 4th “best” draft pick, which doesn’t make any sense.

Didn't Frankie Smokes become halfway decent this year?

Porfiriato
Jan 4, 2016


I don't quite understand the metrics here, but it's baffling to me that they consider the single best Suns draft pick in recent years to be Cam Johnson at #11 with a 2.24 score. I mean, he's done well for them so far...but that's head and shoulders above the 1.43 they gave for taking Booker as a #13 pick.

three
Aug 9, 2007

i fantasize about ndamukong suh licking my doodoo hole
The Hornets trying to make the one star they've had in modern times happy is cool with me.

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man
I didn't read the methodology closely but I believe that guy adjusts pick value for player availability, so cam johnson gets a high value because he's a million times better than whoever was picked behind him, pj washingto I think

three
Aug 9, 2007

i fantasize about ndamukong suh licking my doodoo hole

dokmo posted:

I didn't read the methodology closely but I believe that guy adjusts pick value for player availability, so cam johnson gets a high value because he's a million times better than whoever was picked behind him, pj washingto I think

How is he a million times better than PJ Washington?

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

JackBandit posted:

They also had KAT as being the 3rd or 4th “best” draft pick, which doesn’t make any sense.

The idea there is KAT was way better than the guys following him, so the Wolves get value for not loving up. It makes sense on one level (#8 in one year will have a different expected value than another) but it needs to be baselined against, like, Hollinger's draft board or something because it definitely gives a lot of credit when the pick was obvious (the model obviously doesn't know that).

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

Porfiriato posted:

I don't quite understand the metrics here, but it's baffling to me that they consider the single best Suns draft pick in recent years to be Cam Johnson at #11 with a 2.24 score. I mean, he's done well for them so far...but that's head and shoulders above the 1.43 they gave for taking Booker as a #13 pick.

If I'm understanding, it's saying that of the players in the 2019 draft only Brandon Clark has had a better career than Cam Johnson and had not already come off the board when Cam was drafted.

For the 2015 draft, when Booker was picked, Montrezl Harrell was still on the board, and by any advanced stat, Montrezl has had a much better career. It's worth pointing out that as far as advanced stats go, Richaun Holmes currently has a marginally better career than Booker.

Now, anyone who watched basketball this year is gonna take Booker in a heartbeat over either of them, but it took Booker a long time to become an efficient scorer. Those first 2-3 seasons he was about at Andrew Wiggins level efficiency and had a bit higher usage rate, which is murder on advanced stats. Give it a couple years and he'll pass Montrezl I'm sure.

It's an interesting approach to comparing drafts year over year, but it strikes me as something that needs full careers to make any kind of reasonable comparison.

Chairchucker
Nov 14, 2006

to ride eternal, shiny and chrome

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2022




Carlosologist posted:

There should be an off-season competition to see who can create the most diabolical and nonsensical trade machine proposal

ESPN's trade machine won't let me involve more than 4 teams, is there a better one?

dokmo
Aug 27, 2006

:stat:man

three posted:

How is he a million times better than PJ Washington?

I dunno charges taken or something cool like that, I don't actually care since it's not my model

WhyteRyce
Dec 30, 2001

:lol:

quote:

“The easiest thing would be re-signing Dennis Schröder, but Dennis Schröder wants crazy money,” Stein said. “Dennis Schröder thinks he’s a $100 million player. He’s already turned down an extension in the $80 millions, and the vibe from the Lakers really is, I think they’d rather move on from Schröder. I don’t think they see Schröder as a starter. I think they like him as a Sixth Man, but they want something more out of their main backcourt guy.”

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
Lakers are dumb lol

Hand Row
May 28, 2001
For offering 80 million yeah

leftist heap
Feb 28, 2013

Fun Shoe
I don't really see how that draft analysis is any better than just cherry picking guys a team COULD have had. It's basically the same reasoning but using a spreadsheet instead.

I aint reading the whole methodology, but idk if it really passes the eyeball test to me. Like, Toronto has been the best at drafting since 2009? I don't think their track record over that time is anything to write home about. Meanwhile GSW is in the bottom half after drafting Steph, Klay, Draymond and Harrison Barnes in that time span.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
The Timberwolves are losing Evan turners $28 million. It looks like they have a lot of Space, anyone know what they are likely to do, what would you like to see them do?

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Dejan Bimble posted:

The Timberwolves are losing Evan turners $28 million. It looks like they have a lot of Space, anyone know what they are likely to do, what would you like to see them do?

They really don't have much. 131 in guaranteed contracts oh a cap of 112 and a tax of 136. They probably won't do anything beyond minimum fill ins unless they make some trades, and I'm guessing they do some trades. They won't go into the tax unless it's a solid playoff team though.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Lockback posted:

They really don't have much. 131 in guaranteed contracts oh a cap of 112 and a tax of 136. They probably won't do anything beyond minimum fill ins unless they make some trades, and I'm guessing they do some trades. They won't go into the tax unless it's a solid playoff team though.


I am really bad at reading sporTrac

Sucks to be capped up with such a bad team, but I guess we need to see what happens with potentially healthy Carl talents, D’Angelo, ant

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Dejan Bimble posted:

I am really bad at reading sporTrac

Sucks to be capped up with such a bad team, but I guess we need to see what happens with potentially healthy Carl talents, D’Angelo, ant

Last year was a beast on them too. I think they'll be in play for the play-in (which isn't what you want when your capped out either), Beasley looked really solid too. They have talent but they are really guard heavy.

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Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION




But the really important question here is... what was the flavor of the day?

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