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(Thread IKs: Stereotype)
 
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strange feelings re Daisy
Aug 2, 2000

I knew permafrost melt was theorized to release methane deposits but I didn't know they would come in the form of giant explosions
https://twitter.com/motherboard/status/1443051176371658753?s=20

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IAMKOREA
Apr 21, 2007

strange feelings re Daisy posted:

I knew permafrost melt was theorized to release methane deposits but I didn't know they would come in the form of giant explosions
https://twitter.com/motherboard/status/1443051176371658753?s=20

Does the explosion mean the methane gets converted to CO2? That would be good news!

tiberion02
Mar 26, 2007

People tend to make the common mistake of believing that a situation will last forever.

Lordshmee posted:

you know I think about this thread an awful lot. if things really are as bad as predicted, then I know sitting on this 401k is a joke. I mean, I’ve always known it’s a coin flip whether or not it’s a “correction” year when you near retirement anyway, and that’s without the end of the loving world driving number down.

so, I wonder A LOT about when, “the right time” is to cash it out, take the hit and do something fun while I still can. the real bitch is, I can’t even talk to anyone in real life about it, because everyone I know is too invested in the status quo to entertain such a notion as anything other than abject lunacy.

I think I can pay off my mortgage in about 5 years, living pretty frugal and socking everything I get into it. I figure if all I have to make is taxes and utilities until poo poo starts to fall apart for reals, then maybe….

hard thoughts.

lol.

lmao.
Very same, my man. My philosophy has evolved to just acknowledge that being in a position to have a 401k to consider what to do with means you're finding a way to get thru life right now. Better than most and who knows what the gently caress next year will bring... No-one knows the exact speed at which the strings in the ball of yarn unravel, or what actions mad men with power will take. If you want to be an optimist, leave it be as a hedge, and maybe something comes good of it one day if we're wrong or if some other life-altering circumstance arises... maybe it just helps pay for the funeral if you get ganked earlier than you should by bad luck. If you want to be a pessimist, you'll regret it because of the 100 scenarios you'll come up with after the fact about why you coulda done X instead of Y - and frankly, it will not buy peace of mind. If you want to be a nihilist, well none of that hedonistic poo poo you're going to do with it matters either, so yea.

Just dont worry about "timing" it or "the top" - you'll go insane.

Chard
Aug 24, 2010




the planet is simply undergoing puberty, please do not draw attention to temporary unsightly blemishes

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

Funky See Funky Do posted:

They're not going to shut down cspam. They might shut this thread down because someone decided to poke a hornets nest while the all the hornets were pissed off about a different hornets nest, I'm sorry I've lost the thread of the hornets nest metaphor I was going for here, but I think that instead they'll just remind people that it's a stupid idea to joke about carrying out bombings or assassinations and ban the people that do it.

yeah jeffery is in charge now. we'd never have another "lf" type situation on our hands under his expert and deeply wise leadership

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

strange feelings re Daisy posted:

I knew permafrost melt was theorized to release methane deposits but I didn't know they would come in the form of giant explosions
https://twitter.com/motherboard/status/1443051176371658753?s=20

lol loving badass

Tree Bucket
Apr 1, 2016

R.I.P.idura leucophrys
It's been kind of unnerving noticing people's offhand comments about supply chain problems. "I work in x and we can't get any y for another z months! Oh well."
I guess those little disruptions gradually get more common, and last for longer, and begin to affect one another, and...

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

Tree Bucket posted:

It's been kind of unnerving noticing people's offhand comments about supply chain problems. "I work in x and we can't get any y for another z months! Oh well."
I guess those little disruptions gradually get more common, and last for longer, and begin to affect one another, and...

and then everything is fine

IAMKOREA
Apr 21, 2007
I saw this post on StackExchange and immediately thought of this thread. The post isn't actually climate related, but there's just no way that literally the exact same thing isn't happening to every single techno-economic analysis paper about green energy, direct air capture, CCS, etc...

Most of the replies are telling him to get the gently caress out of the situation, but some of them are more realistic and basically say "well yeah you pretty much have to do that if you're a scientist whose work gets consumed by politicians, that's just how it is".

lol. lmao.

SCIENCE!

https://academia.stackexchange.com/questions/175962/my-research-supervisor-is-asking-me-to-fake-results-what-do-i-do

quote:

My research supervisor wanted to produce a cost-benefit analysis for an infrastructure project (civil engineering). First he had someone else work on it, then he involved me. When I got involved, I noticed that the benefits were inflated and the costs downplayed to convince the reader of a massive benefit-cost ratio. I do not know if he stands to personally gain from this but it sure feels like it. I discussed it with him a few times, he pushed back with "I am old and experienced and I know I am right", and eventually in the final revision of the paper he changed my numbers. The way he changed the numbers is not even smart, he just changed the text, he didn't redo the calculations. Now I fear that if I bend under pressure, these bad numbers will be out there, forever! I am sure he will take the published paper and send it to every politician in the country trying to get this project approved. What can I do? I am still his PhD student so I can't get too confrontational.

Note: here is an example of the difference in opinion, he wants to rely on word-of-mouth cost estimates by a local contractor instead of my idea which is to use published numbers in similar papers/reports. For benefits, he is counting increased economic activity in the town/region as a benefit which are not actual dollars directly related to the project. What do you think? Is a 20:1 benefit-cost-ratio normal? Generally a BCR of over 1 is good.

e: right now I'm working on a personal software project and i'm reading lots of scientific papers to do it and it is absolutely incredible how many of them are just loving garbage, how the algorithms that the authors present are completely unreproducible or only work on the specific toy models presented in the paper and fall apart immediately if used on real world cases (and mind you these papers usually have titles like *a robust algorithm for blah blah*). that is kind of what inspired my stupid post about a citizen science project the other day (also drinking inspired it, i now see that it was a very dumb idea lol) but i mean god drat i bet that if you put any of the technoeconomic analysis papers out there that promise a better world where we don't have to stop consuming under any kind of scrutiny they would fall apart like a house of cards.

IAMKOREA has issued a correction as of 11:23 on Sep 29, 2021

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Hubbert posted:

I find that people "newer" to collapse sort of just ... give up. They no longer save for the future, or try to aspire for anything, with the knowledge they carry about the future.

Remember that nothing is ever fully known about the future. Yes, we are on a trajectory towards decline and diminished quality of life, but doing everything you can to prepare for that future today (e.g. personal or professional investments) will be a blessing tomorrow. If everything turns out better than expected, you will be grateful to yourself. If it isn't, then at least you have a cushion in collapse.

Civilization may have a cyclical pattern, yes, but collapse takes numerous decades - even centuries - to reach the nadir.

All you can do is prepare for the long descent.

Yeah really. I'm a fan of of the videos going around and will joke about the bleak climate apocalypse along with anyone else.

I personally think we will be able to kick the can down the road for a shockingly long time so I'm trying for a spot in the domes.

I don't think any poor person could just "save" for a spot but you could probably get lucky if you predict enough large events in the crumbling economy that our society will demand to have as long as possible and chain some sick ultra combos on desperate and pointless lab grown foods, clean energy investments and hail mary passes we are going to start throwing the more concerned we get. The upside on things like this is extremely huge because there is a giant amount of psychology making people deny they could ever possibly happen.

Am I part of the problem? Sure but I think we've established it doesn't matter anymore.

Rectal Death Adept has issued a correction as of 13:41 on Sep 29, 2021

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!
I'm going to shoot the president of DOME-TEC before it gets off the ground and destroy all of your hopes

Cromulent_Chill
Apr 6, 2009

Maybe stop talking about shooting people

Cold on a Cob
Feb 6, 2006

i've seen so much, i'm going blind
and i'm brain dead virtually

College Slice
the only gun i want to hear about right now is the clathrate gun

Blockade
Oct 22, 2008

https://twitter.com/gjrt888/status/1442079337193226248

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!
Lol fine I'll run the imaginary person over with my bike instead, as if it matters. The domes aren't coming to save us.

Barry Soteriology
Mar 1, 2020
sci-fi action flick where the big action set piece is a siege on a dome. the libs will love it because they think they'll be the ones inside the dome, defending from the wasteland marauders.

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy
The first dome will probably be a failed experiment, I'm waiting for the iDome 3 or 4 at least.

iDome 1 will cut your water rations and oxygen content when iDome 2 comes out.

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!
The American West is dryer than it has ever been, more populated than it has ever been, and La Nina is coming

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
‘Green growth’ doesn’t exist – less of everything is the only way to avert catastrophe


quote:

It is simply not possible to carry on at the current level of economic activity without destroying the environment



quote:

There is a box labelled “climate”, in which politicians discuss the climate crisis. There is a box named “biodiversity”, in which they discuss the biodiversity crisis. There are other boxes, such as pollution, deforestation, overfishing and soil loss, gathering dust in our planet’s lost property department. But they all contain aspects of one crisis that we have divided up to make it comprehensible. The categories the human brain creates to make sense of its surroundings are not, as Immanuel Kant observed, the “thing-in-itself”. They describe artefacts of our perceptions rather than the world.



quote:

What would we see if we broke down our conceptual barriers? We would see a full-spectrum assault on the living world. Scarcely anywhere is now safe from this sustained assault. A recent scientific paper estimates that only 3% of the Earth’s land surface should now be considered “ecologically intact”.

The various impacts have a common cause: the sheer volume of economic activity. We are doing too much of almost everything, and the world’s living systems cannot bear it. But our failure to see the whole ensures that we fail to address this crisis systemically and effectively.



quote:

We have no hope of emerging from this full-spectrum crisis unless we dramatically reduce economic activity. Wealth must be distributed – a constrained world cannot afford the rich – but it must also be reduced. Sustaining our life-support systems means doing less of almost everything. But this notion – that should be central to a new, environmental ethics – is secular blasphemy.


The messaging is finally catching on, going wide, and I suspect the coming state change will be swift and catch a lot of the BAU deniers with their asses hanging out unprepared.

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!
So you're saying I should quit my job? Today even? Right in the middle of this meeting maybe????

Koirhor
Jan 14, 2008

by Fluffdaddy
the fact that I have to work during the apocalypse is kind of hosed up

That Spooky Witch
Jun 16, 2017

All hail the triune god
i wonder how big the first dome bombing(s) will be

blatman
May 10, 2009

14 inc dont mez


Car Hater posted:

Lol fine I'll run the imaginary person over with my bike instead, as if it matters. The domes aren't coming to save us.

if you think about it, the biosphere is the first dome, the die from which all subsequent domes are cast, and it's failing us

dome will not bring you salvation, dome brings nothing but content and death

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Rime posted:

‘Green growth’ doesn’t exist – less of everything is the only way to avert catastrophe







The messaging is finally catching on, going wide, and I suspect the coming state change will be swift and catch a lot of the BAU deniers with their asses hanging out unprepared.

My one tiny ray of hope comes from the fact that the messaging has been advancing rapidly over the last 2-3 years. It's probably too late anyway and we're all hosed, but it's like a switch flipped and suddenly the evidence of total catastrophe became too overwhelming for the optimists to keep pace.

The specific thing I'm noticing more and more is that the "actually, everything will be fine!" articles are becoming a lot more reactive. The optimistic headlines used to be the default, and then there'd be an occasional op-ed counterpoint proclaiming doom. Now the headlines are getting doomier and doomier and, outside of financial news anyway, a lot of the optimism is limited to response articles going "wait wait wait no"

Barry Soteriology
Mar 1, 2020
A finished dome will withstand whatever the wastelanders can muster. The only chance is to destroy the dome before it is complete. Many antifa supersoldiers died to bring us this information.

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Chrono Trigger was a documentary

fanfic insert
Nov 4, 2009

Rectal Death Adept posted:

The first dome will probably be a failed experiment, I'm waiting for the iDome 3 or 4 at least.

iDome 1 will cut your water rations and oxygen content when iDome 2 comes out.

Dont be rediculous, they'll slowly change the CO2/oxygen ratio patch by patch until your head is simply to slow to not upgrade to iDome 5s(s for small).

Cloks
Feb 1, 2013

by Azathoth

Koirhor posted:

the fact that I have to work during the apocalypse is kind of hosed up

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Paradoxish posted:

My one tiny ray of hope comes from the fact that the messaging has been advancing rapidly over the last 2-3 years. It's probably too late anyway and we're all hosed, but it's like a switch flipped and suddenly the evidence of total catastrophe became too overwhelming for the optimists to keep pace.

The specific thing I'm noticing more and more is that the "actually, everything will be fine!" articles are becoming a lot more reactive. The optimistic headlines used to be the default, and then there'd be an occasional op-ed counterpoint proclaiming doom. Now the headlines are getting doomier and doomier and, outside of financial news anyway, a lot of the optimism is limited to response articles going "wait wait wait no"

It's been a really, really rapid shift. I can't tell if it's because the pandemic pulled back the curtain on the fragility of our civilization and made the conversation easier, or because the end is extremely and very obviously nigh compared to just three or four years ago, or both.

Either way, feels wierd to keep seeing opinions which I was repeatedly chain-probated over to try and silence - receive major news publication and pulled out from the fringes. :eyepop:

E: A stance I've seen completely vanish recently is the old "well what if we changed everything about our lifestyles and it turns out it wasn't necessary???" . Granted, it's largely been supplanted by You can pry my lifestyle from my cold dead hands" but even that is an admission that poo poo is hosed directly because of us.

Rime has issued a correction as of 16:12 on Sep 29, 2021

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Rime posted:

It's been a really, really rapid shift.

I'd be more hopeful about what this could mean if I didn't know for a certainty that we would waste the next 5-10 years doing stupid bullshit like carbon capture plants instead of anything meaningful.

Wakko
Jun 9, 2002
Faboo!
lmao you're still gonna be going to work while you're rationing your potable water. treasure these "the engine is on fire but the flames are only starting to spread to the passenger compartment" years

Cold on a Cob
Feb 6, 2006

i've seen so much, i'm going blind
and i'm brain dead virtually

College Slice

Rime posted:

It's been a really, really rapid shift. I can't tell if it's because the pandemic pulled back the curtain on the fragility of our civilization and made the conversation easier, or because the end is extremely and very obviously nigh compared to just three or four years ago, or both.

i think it's largely due to the pandemic, the latest ipcc report, and recent extreme weather events

personally, the pandemic gave me more time to pay attention to how hosed we are AND see how poorly we can handle a relatively easy global level collective action problem that involves economic pullback

i mean i didn't have much optimism before but the last two years have completely annihilated what little i had

Homocow
Apr 24, 2007

Extremely bad poster!
DO NOT QUOTE!


Pillbug
the earth will shart itself to death

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Cold on a Cob posted:

i think it's largely due to the pandemic, the latest ipcc report, and recent extreme weather events

personally, the pandemic gave me more time to pay attention to how hosed we are AND see how poorly we can handle a relatively easy global level collective action problem that involves economic pullback

i mean i didn't have much optimism before but the last two years have completely annihilated what little i had

the pandemic also made it abundantly clear how fast stuff bounces back if people would just loving stop driving lol

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
Also, not that people in here have to be MORE angry, but this is just another example of end-stage :capitalism:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfQJiGJO5Bo

We've gone from "A Diamond is Forever" to "Only Simps Buy Lab-Made."

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009

The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.

BIG HEADLINE posted:

It won't be decades. The current global trends towards hyper-nationalism will see to that.

You don't think the hyper-nationalism turned hyper-fascism will do every horrible thing possible in its power to prolong some semblance of the lifestyle the imperial core has afforded them thus far?

This is not a callout directed at you or any individual in the thread, but I wanted to comment on a more pervasive phenomenon I've noticed picking up steam recently, concurrent with the accelerating extreme weather events and general breakdown.

I'm still workshopping it but for now call it 'sudden collapse optimism', the bizarrely comforting idea that the forces that have both perpetrated and denied the ecological cataclysm will suddenly be subject to the very forces they have unleashed. It's a much harder pill to swallow that they'll do everything they can to keep the party going a little bit longer (insert whatever atrocities your imagination can summon) and their political base of support will swell and grow as they continue to, quite successfully, project blame on outsiders and The Other.

Most of the posters ITT have reached some level of acceptance about the ecological predicament as it stands, and a sudden collapse of The State in the face of that is an odd, and I would argue, idealistic offshoot of that awareness.


The idea that the brutalism of capital will expand exponentially in the face of this crisis and is likely outlast all of us is another step down the crack-ping steps to hell that is hard to accept.




We will live to see manmade horrors beyond our comprehension.

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!
They also already have their domes. Cheyenne Mountain. Raven Rock. Chiashan. And thousands of others scattered throughout the world, designed to keep the notion of the state and it's right to dominate you alive forever. You think they didn't think of you pooping in the vents when your grandparents were still in nappies?

Only Da Bomb can save us now

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

The Protagonist posted:

You don't think the hyper-nationalism turned hyper-fascism will do every horrible thing possible in its power to prolong some semblance of the lifestyle the imperial core has afforded them thus far?

No, I think when the hyper-nationalist, hyper-fascist powers start to quarrel with each other over what's left is when you're going to start seeing the canned sunshine being cracked open.

I keep bringing up the ending of "Three Days of the Condor" in my head, when Redford's character finally gets his "friend" to cop to being one of the bad guys.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZNnDiDSUiI&t=165s

"They won't want us to ask 'em. They'll just want us to get it for them."

Shima Honnou
Dec 1, 2010

The Once And Future King Of Dicetroit

College Slice
anyone who's worked a logistics job knows that capitalism optimizes through skeletonization, there is zero resilience or wiggle room to it. everything has been like three tractor-trailers from collapse for over 20 years.

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Funky See Funky Do
Aug 20, 2013
STILL TRYING HARD

Wakko posted:

lmao you're still gonna be going to work while you're rationing your potable water. treasure these "the engine is on fire but the flames are only starting to spread to the passenger compartment" years

The moment they run out of productive work for us to do they'll find holes and ditches for us to dig. The last thing they want are a lot of scared, angry people with excess energy and a lot of time on their hands.

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