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On the plus side, everyone mingling for Christmas means that in January we'll have a metric ton of data for Omicron. And possibly the collapse of several healthcare systems, but it's all swings and roundabouts, innit?
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Dec 21, 2021 23:35
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goddamnedtwisto posted:A random thought - is the apparent lower severity of Omicron likely to be that it's infecting already-vaccinated people much more than Delta?
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Dec 21, 2021 23:37
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Zugzwang posted:Yeah, this is the big question for sure. The two-day doublings can’t go on forever. After a little over two months of those, literally everyone on earth would have it. And of course it didn’t go on forever in South Africa because of still-unknown reasons. This study is saying that Omicron cases that are hospitalized are 30% as likely to be severe (aOR = 0.3) in addition to detected cases being 20% as likely to be hospitalized (aOR = 0.2). Thus implying that severe disease is about 93% less likely with omicron than with delta, not 30%.
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Dec 21, 2021 23:40
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I got my results this morning from a Sunday afternoon test, pretty swift turnaround once I actually got it scheduled. PCR negative, was just the booster shot side effects. That's now twice in the last month I've been in close contact for 30+ minutes with someone who got pretty sick from a breakthrough a few days after we were together. I'd be willing to get a mRNA booster but I don't know who would give it to me or when, ideally without making false statements. I'm gonna assume by the time I'm 60 days out from the J&J booster, they'll be recommending a mRNA booster. So far, though, seems like they are only indicating 1 mRNA booster from those who originally had J&J.
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Dec 21, 2021 23:51
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Xenophanes posted:This study is saying that Omicron cases that are hospitalized are 30% as likely to be severe (aOR = 0.3) in addition to detected cases being 20% as likely to be hospitalized (aOR = 0.2). Thus implying that severe disease is about 93% less likely with omicron than with delta, not 30%. I’m getting whiplash from all the “Panic! No wait, it’s good! Wait, no, actually we’re doomed!”
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Dec 22, 2021 00:09
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Like someone said earlier, there are too many “bins” that people are in now, and not nearly enough data.
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Dec 22, 2021 00:10
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looney bin
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Dec 22, 2021 00:16
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https://twitter.com/drewtoothpaste/status/1473360059908374539?t=TUQFKmIeP3c2yO_jJzf85A&s=19
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Dec 22, 2021 00:28
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Raskolnikov2089 posted:I did not enter a single building that was not my own home from Feb 2020 until I got my first dose in March 2021. Thank you curbside groceries and online shopping. I could have conceivably skipped the grocery store (the vast majority of my groceries are delivered). I really didn't have much of a choice about the vet or the visa renewal. I'd like to be able to go places that are fun, again, though.
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Dec 22, 2021 00:34
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dwarf74 posted:https://twitter.com/drewtoothpaste/status/1473360059908374539?t=TUQFKmIeP3c2yO_jJzf85A&s=19 Drew Toothpaste is still a thing? I got a couple t-shirts like a decade ago that made me laugh.
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Dec 22, 2021 00:39
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Xenophanes posted:This study is saying that Omicron cases that are hospitalized are 30% as likely to be severe (aOR = 0.3) in addition to detected cases being 20% as likely to be hospitalized (aOR = 0.2). Thus implying that severe disease is about 93% less likely with omicron than with delta, not 30%. Zugzwang fucked around with this message at 01:00 on Dec 22, 2021 |
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Dec 22, 2021 00:58
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goddamnedtwisto posted:A random thought - is the apparent lower severity of Omicron likely to be that it's infecting already-vaccinated people much more than Delta? What you have described is a case of a statistical phenomenon known as Simpson’s paradox. It is Trevor Bedford’s working hypothesis. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1471654963419893762
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Dec 22, 2021 02:29
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So basically if you're COVID-naive good loving luck
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Dec 22, 2021 02:30
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drat, guess I should have gone back to licking doorknobs with everyone else last year.
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Dec 22, 2021 02:54
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3 doses is baby poo poo! https://twitter.com/PandemicInfoIL/status/1473409824742416389?s=20
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Dec 22, 2021 04:07
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think of all of the sweet Pfizer pens that the Israeli Fauci must have gotten from their sales rep an entire mug full of them
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Dec 22, 2021 04:34
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:3 doses is baby poo poo! Wait, has anyone been trialing 4 doses? I hadn't even heard of pfizer or anyone else doing it for anything other than people with various immune system problems.
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Dec 22, 2021 05:06
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wilderthanmild posted:Wait, has anyone been trialing 4 doses? I hadn't even heard of pfizer or anyone else doing it for anything other than people with various immune system problems. im guessing israel thinks covid is worse than any possible side effect from a 4th dose
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Dec 22, 2021 05:15
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every morning i wake up and open palm slap a dose of pfizer directly into my arm
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Dec 22, 2021 05:28
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Google Butt posted:im guessing israel thinks covid is worse than any possible side effect from a 4th dose There's lots and lots of people worldwide with 4 shots of covid vaccine. A whole lot of immunocompromised people got early shots, then the recommended 3rd shot, then a legit booster because their 3rd shot was months and months ago
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Dec 22, 2021 05:32
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It’s a bit apples and oranges, but there is a Cuban vaccine that has five doses in its primary series.
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Dec 22, 2021 05:36
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Can I do vigorous exercise the day of my COVID booster? Even though I know it's rare and I'm on the upper end of the risk group the myocarditis stuff makes me nervous. But I also don't want to skip my activity. Google has mixed results from "it's fine" to "give it 48 hours" to "give it two weeks(!)"
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Dec 22, 2021 05:37
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prom candy posted:Can I do vigorous exercise the day of my COVID booster? Even though I know it's rare and I'm on the upper end of the risk group the myocarditis stuff makes me nervous. But I also don't want to skip my activity. Google has mixed results from "it's fine" to "give it 48 hours" to "give it two weeks(!)" I ran in the morning and got the booster shot in the afternoon, and it all seemed fine.
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Dec 22, 2021 05:43
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wilderthanmild posted:Wait, has anyone been trialing 4 doses? I hadn't even heard of pfizer or anyone else doing it for anything other than people with various immune system problems. Israel had started talking about a 4th dose months ago, back when the FDA was still deciding whether 3rd doses would be prudent based on Israel's 3-dose data. They've been ahead of the curve since the first vaccines rolled out
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Dec 22, 2021 05:55
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liz posted:Welp, looks like it might be time to go back to home workouts for a bit Just going to quote this post from a month ago: QuarkJets posted:I'm still lolling at that poster a few days ago who thought Omicron hadn't come to America yet When South Africa's infection curves were released (in November) this was the inevitable outcome. poo poo's already bad and about to get way worse.
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Dec 22, 2021 05:59
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It was sure nice while it lasted! 
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Didn’t Trevor Bedford estimate Omicron’s genesis as late Sept-Early Oct? And then we first detected it (because cases were skyrocketing in an area with a heavily mutated spike variant) in mid-Nov? Yeah, it was already here by the time we knew about it. We don’t do nearly enough sequencing to pick up these things before they take off.
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Dec 22, 2021 06:04
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prom candy posted:Can I do vigorous exercise the day of my COVID booster? Even though I know it's rare and I'm on the upper end of the risk group the myocarditis stuff makes me nervous. But I also don't want to skip my activity. Google has mixed results from "it's fine" to "give it 48 hours" to "give it two weeks(!)" I am not a doctor or an epidemiologist but I feel like vigorous exercise before the shot wouldn't matter at all, and after would pose some negligible risk. Experts recommend curtailing exercise for 10 days if you've been infected with covid-19, so do that if you want to be super duper cautious (keeping in mind that there's a league of difference between vaccination and infection)
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Dec 22, 2021 06:08
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Google Butt posted:im guessing israel thinks covid is worse than any possible side effect from a 4th dose I'm not worried about side effects, I'm just surprised since other countries have generally waited for studies. I was curious if they'd already done some kind of research on this or if they were just entering a phase where new rounds of boosters every 4-6 months are just a thing they expect to do going forward. Either way it's good someone is doing it because it seemed like the 3rd shot data from Israel had an influence on other countries adopting it afterwards.
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Dec 22, 2021 06:08
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Google Butt posted:im guessing israel thinks covid is worse than any possible side effect from a 4th dose Idk if there's a demonstrable effect that 4 doses greatly increases protection then I'm all for it, but if it's like 1-2% efficacy increase idk if that's worth it imo unless you're immunocompromised or around Omicron all the time
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Dec 22, 2021 06:08
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It's getting to the point where surely it would be a more effective use of vaccine to shut down the mRNA plants and retool them for a omicron specific or multivalent vaccine rather than just give everyone 3rd/4th/5th shots in an attempt to keep up with emerging variants.
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Dec 22, 2021 06:11
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Seth Pecksniff posted:Idk if there's a demonstrable effect that 4 doses greatly increases protection then I'm all for it, but if it's like 1-2% efficacy increase idk if that's worth it imo unless you're immunocompromised or around Omicron all the time Honestly by the time that data is in your hands it's already too late unless you are an isolated wfher who has control over their level of exposure. If a country that has proven to be ahead of the curve is doing 4 doses, I'm doing 4 doses
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Dec 22, 2021 06:12
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To me, it looks like immunity just wanes quickly (within 6 months) and you just need boosters twice a year. Then again, IANAI; maybe I'm wrong and third time's a charm.
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Dec 22, 2021 06:13
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HolHorsejob posted:To me, it looks like immunity just wanes quickly (within 6 months) and you just need boosters twice a year. Then again, IANAI; maybe I'm wrong and third time's a charm. Seems more like 3 times a year tbh
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Dec 22, 2021 06:14
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Cant boost the Kroost
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Dec 22, 2021 07:39
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HolHorsejob posted:To me, it looks like immunity just wanes quickly (within 6 months) and you just need boosters twice a year. Then again, IANAI; maybe I'm wrong and third time's a charm. This looks interesting: https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/12/us-army-creates-single-vaccine-effective-against-all-covid-sars-variants/360089/ I am not familiar with this source, just from my newsfeed. But I wouldn't mind giving this one a spin.
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Dec 22, 2021 07:45
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dwarf74 posted:https://twitter.com/drewtoothpaste/status/1473360059908374539?t=TUQFKmIeP3c2yO_jJzf85A&s=19 An unusual metric for contagion, but i'll allow it.  I wonder if it also applies to Goop candles. 
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Dec 22, 2021 08:22
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https://twitter.com/telefeminism/status/1473310212249554946 Your average goon.
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Dec 22, 2021 09:56
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CSM posted:https://twitter.com/telefeminism/status/1473310212249554946 When I flew from NYC to HK in March 2021, right after the NBA shut down and Trump made his big boy speech, a solid 20-30% of the sold-out flight was wearing improvised full-body hazmat suits. The woman sitting next to me had her feet in plastic bags, tape-sealed around plastic rain pants, plastic rain poncho tucked and taped, gloves tucked and taped, hood on with multiple masks, and what I think was a scuba-diving mask. She did not get up once during the entire 16-hour flight.
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Dec 22, 2021 10:06
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Just gonna modify my PPE completely out of spec here, hold on a second
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Dec 22, 2021 10:11
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my favorite part of flying during the pandemic was every time the tsa made me take my mask off at security in the giant cattle pen full of all the other loving morons traveling during a global pandemic
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Dec 22, 2021 10:20
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