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Radical 90s Wizard
Aug 5, 2008

~SS-18 burning bright,
Bathe me in your cleansing light~

Arrath posted:

Either they put little Expanse Power Armor gatling guns in the hand thrusters or a dude on the ship with a shotgun will have some fun skeet shooting.

Just one guy with a broom shoving him away whenever he tries to land

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Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Be prepared
Fun Shoe

Radical 90s Wizard posted:

Just one guy with a broom shoving him away whenever he tries to land

One guy with a leaf blower?

That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


Damage control party just blasting him in the face with a firehose on approach

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
Ooo! Look at me! NO DON'T LOOK AT ME!



If only there was another way
to keep him away

https://twitter.com/MaggieEThornton/status/1479785937525747718?t=6k5xsYXhkiLdnAz4jScqKA&s=19

Some might say we could find a brighter day

ElMaligno
Dec 31, 2004

Be Gay!
Do Crime!

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1479646432374239249?t=oiWMnSi4ka5qfvzBGuz8cA&s=19


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S53fZTbKHG0

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

So I think the big question now is do we actually hit 1 million today or does it start to decline? I have to wonder what’s the naturally occurring peak for daily infections?

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.


We're number 1!!!!!! Wooooooooo!!!!

Eason the Fifth
Apr 9, 2020

hang on let me get the British military on the phone to pay for american schoolchildren's air conditioning

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Eason the Fifth posted:

hang on let me get the British military on the phone to pay for american schoolchildren's air conditioning
hang on let me get tweet right under this
https://twitter.com/MaggieEThornton/status/1479800953981259780

Terrifying Effigies
Oct 22, 2008

Problems look mighty small from 150 miles up.

Marshal Prolapse posted:

So I think the big question now is do we actually hit 1 million today or does it start to decline? I have to wonder what’s the naturally occurring peak for daily infections?
Test positivity rates for the US are at ~30%, and that's not counting home antigen test results and everyone who're unable or unwilling to go get an official lab PCR test. At this point we're likely well over a million a day actually getting Covid and the official case count reports are going to become harder to interpret as testing capacity is saturated.




Edit - with tests per 100k as well:

Terrifying Effigies fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Jan 8, 2022

Madurai
Jun 26, 2012


https://twitter.com/cstross/status/1479158172665401345

davecrazy
Nov 25, 2004

I'm an insufferable shitposter who does not deserve to root for such a good team. Also, this is what Matt Harvey thinks of me and my garbage posting.
Bitcoin is causing a revolution alright.

Diarrhea Elemental
Apr 2, 2012

Am I correct in my assumption, you fish-faced enemy of the people?

I probably shouldn't be laughing this hard, but just... Jesus Christ.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Terrifying Effigies posted:

Test positivity rates for the US are at ~30%, and that's not counting home antigen test results and everyone who're unable or unwilling to go get an official lab PCR test. At this point we're likely well over a million a day actually getting Covid and the official case count reports are going to become harder to interpret as testing capacity is saturated.




Edit - with tests per 100k as well:



You know that makes a lot of sense that we’re probably already there, appreciate the charts and info.

I wonder what point it just can’t go up any higher? I mean at some point with stuff like Delta and Omicron being super virulent, isn’t it just in circulation so much that natural herd immunity might actually be a real outcome? Well by that I’m being a mix of people who have the weaker natural immunity from having it and a large number of people have been vaccinated that in theory there’s no real spot left for huge new outbreaks? I know there’s probably no scientific evidence to suggest this, but I guess it’s nice to have hope, not that I have any faith in it. lol

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

Marshal Prolapse posted:

You know that makes a lot of sense that we’re probably already there, appreciate the charts and info.

I wonder what point it just can’t go up any higher? I mean at some point with stuff like Delta and Omicron being super virulent, isn’t it just in circulation so much that natural herd immunity might actually be a real outcome? Well by that I’m being a mix of people who have the weaker natural immunity from having it and a large number of people have been vaccinated that in theory there’s no real spot left for huge new outbreaks? I know there’s probably no scientific evidence to suggest this, but I guess it’s nice to have hope, not that I have any faith in it. lol

Maybe, but they’re coronaviruses just like the “common cold” which everyone keeps getting regularly.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

hobbesmaster posted:

Maybe, but they’re coronaviruses just like the “common cold” which everyone keeps getting regularly.

Like I said I didn’t really have any hope that there was any scientific backing for my theory. Still I’m wondering what the hell the end game is going to be? Does this eventually become something like the seasonal flu or is it basically pseudo post apocalyptic society coping with a never ending pandemic for decades or more.

Diarrhea Elemental posted:

I probably shouldn't be laughing this hard, but just... Jesus Christ.

Honestly everything about this seems like it’s the perfect set up for a future lions led by donkeys episode, because it just seems to be a lot of wholesale stupidity and violence involved and adding crypto to it is just the icing on the cake.

Also I think if a laugh helps get you through all this poo poo as long as you’re not laughing in someone’s face who was there or making an rear end out of yourself on public Internet, then no harm no foul.

ded
Oct 27, 2005

Kooler than Jesus

Marshal Prolapse posted:

You know that makes a lot of sense that we’re probably already there, appreciate the charts and info.

I wonder what point it just can’t go up any higher? I mean at some point with stuff like Delta and Omicron being super virulent, isn’t it just in circulation so much that natural herd immunity might actually be a real outcome? Well by that I’m being a mix of people who have the weaker natural immunity from having it and a large number of people have been vaccinated that in theory there’s no real spot left for huge new outbreaks? I know there’s probably no scientific evidence to suggest this, but I guess it’s nice to have hope, not that I have any faith in it. lol

Once again in this thread.

THERE IS NO HERD IMMUNITY FROM COVID

People are catching this multiple times. People have caught it, got the vax after, and catch it again. People who got vaxed catch it.

You know that one country were they actually said gently caress you we are doing herd immunity? Ya. They turned right the gently caress around on that because it does not work for covid

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

What I've been reading is that while there is overall an energy crisis in Kazakhstan, the protests were primarily driven by the sudden spike in the price of LPG due to deregulation last year. The power plants are mostly coal powered. As fun as it would be to blame this on buttcoin miners moving from China and wrecking up the place, I don't think that is a valid argument.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

Marshal Prolapse posted:

Like I said I didn’t really have any hope that there was any scientific backing for my theory. Still I’m wondering what the hell the end game is going to be? Does this eventually become something like the seasonal flu or is it basically pseudo post apocalyptic society coping with a never ending pandemic for decades or more.

Honestly everything about this seems like it’s the perfect set up for a future lions led by donkeys episode, because it just seems to be a lot of wholesale stupidity and violence involved and adding crypto to it is just the icing on the cake.

Also I think if a laugh helps get you through all this poo poo as long as you’re not laughing in someone’s face who was there or making an rear end out of yourself on public Internet, then no harm no foul.

The endgame is basically it being the flu: it mutates a lot but a yearly shot gives you enough immunity to strains that are close enough that’s it’s not so bad on average.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

ded posted:

Once again in this thread.

THERE IS NO HERD IMMUNITY FROM COVID

People are catching this multiple times. People have caught it, got the vax after, and catch it again. People who got vaxed catch it.

You know that one country were they actually said gently caress you we are doing herd immunity? Ya. They turned right the gently caress around on that because it does not work for covid

Yes, I am aware of the Swedish failure. I guess it’s just me working out the reality of the situation, at least in terms of the potential future. I guess the most important thing is we don’t get something that is as virulent as delta or omicron, but even worse death rates than delta.

hobbesmaster posted:

The endgame is basically it being the flu: it mutates a lot but a yearly shot gives you enough immunity to strains that are close enough that’s it’s not so bad on average.

I cannot wait till we get to that point.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Terrifying Effigies posted:

At this point we're likely well over a million a day actually getting Covid

I would bet on over five million.

CDC’s best guess in November was three unreported cases for every reported case, and it’s surely worse now given the strain on testing.

hobbesmaster posted:

The endgame is basically it being the flu: it mutates a lot but a yearly shot gives you enough immunity to strains that are close enough that’s it’s not so bad on average.

Or it remains a really nasty disease as it goes endemic, of the sort that Americans only read about in National Geographic and history books.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

Platystemon posted:

Or it remains a really nasty disease as it goes endemic, of the sort that Americans only read about in National Geographic and history books.

Then the brutality of natural selection will do what vaccines can’t. See: the plague.

Eason the Fifth
Apr 9, 2020

You can't expect me to read past the post

Soul Dentist
Mar 17, 2009
Wouldn't the daily numbers go down if literally every American already has covid? 0 new infections today! Yes 15,000 died but we're finally turning a corner!

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

hobbesmaster posted:

Then the brutality of natural selection will do what vaccines can’t. See: the plague.

We do have pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical options for dealing with it. It’s just that we are repeatedly failing to pursue them

Where’s the rush to get Omicron-targeted mRNA vaccines out? What about inhalable or intranasal vaccines that could stimulate mucosal antibodies and reduce transmission as well a provide a second line of defence for their recipients? Why didn’t we attempt to scale up precursor production for all promising antivirals such as Paxlovid? Why were mask and test production capacity not expanded, but allowed to wither on the vine?

https://twitter.com/wsbgnl/status/1472465392442306562

But yes, in the long term, virulent pathogens drive host evolution. One way or another, we will not live with such a virus.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Platystemon posted:

Where’s the rush to get Omicron-targeted mRNA vaccines out? What about inhalable or intranasal vaccines that could stimulate mucosal antibodies and reduce transmission as well a provide a second line of defence for their recipients? Why didn’t we attempt to scale up precursor production for all promising antivirals such as Paxlovid? Why were mask and test production capacity not expanded, but allowed to wither on the vine?

On Omicron-targeted mRNAs, both Pfizer/Moderna are working on it and they might be ready in a month or two, but it's unclear if the FDA/CDC are going to require new clinical trials. Governments might want those - this would be the first targeted "booster" type deployed against COVID so far. It's generally thought that infection with Omicron will protect against Delta, but we don't really know if that's the same case for vaccines! That's one of the reasons why the military is developing the Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle COVID-19 vaccine for plug-and-play insertion of variant targets. Development never really stopped, but this poo poo is hard. And meanwhile, the current vaccines are plenty good at turning Omicron into an annoyance versus a deathwave.

Intranasal COVID vaccines aren't ready yet, the first findings on a trial were published on December 10th through Yale. NIAID is about to start a clinical trial on a nasal spray for infants/kids, with the first study out on December 7th.

We *are* scaling up precursor production for antivirals - it's just that they take a loving longass time and we only recently found out that they work. The feds pre-invested in a ton of vaccine candidates and pill candidates and nearly all of them have crapped out. Hell, the Merck pill's initial trial results had it as a wonderdrug, then it kind of poo poo the bed and the Pfizer pill turned out to be the wonderdrug. Here's WaPo for specifics on Paxlovid:

quote:

The United States has made an advance purchase of 10 million packs of Paxlovid at a cost of about $5.3 billion, along with about 3.1 million treatment courses of the Merck drug, molnupiravir, at a cost of $2.2 billion.

McDermott said that thousands of people are working on Paxlovid but that the complex chemistry involved in creating the pill’s active pharmaceutical ingredient means a production run for a batch takes about six to eight months from start to finish. The company creates the active ingredient in giant 10,000- and 20,000-liter tanks, and the process takes a succession of steps, many of which require five to 10 days, with quality checks in between.

“We have experience at this scale — this is not unusual for us,” McDermott said. “The urgency is unusual, for sure.” He drew a parallel to auto racing, in which pit crews and materials are in place at pit stops to make sure no minutes are lost.

Six months ago, when Pfizer started making Paxlovid before knowing whether it would prove successful, the production goal was to churn out 20 million pill packs in 2022. When the first clinical results showed the drug drastically cut the risk of death or hospitalization, by close to 90 percent, the company bumped up production to 50 million pill packs. Two weeks later, McDermott said, production was increased to 80 million. When the emergency authorization was announced, Pfizer increased that to 120 million packs.

Each pill pack will contain 30 tablets to be taken over five days, so Pfizer is working to produce 3.6 billion tablets next year. The company is leveraging existing infrastructure in Ireland and Germany to make the key ingredient in the pill and to create the tablets, as well as working with contractors. Pfizer has entered into licensing agreements to allow other companies to produce the pills for lower-income countries.

This poo poo simply takes forever.

Masks/tests are basically a fuckup. On the American side, they thought dumping all efforts into vaccines would kick COVID's rear end, then Delta came into play and we've been behind-the-curve ever since. They also thought Capitalism Would Provide in terms of at-home testing and the FDA got into lazymode about approving competitors to Abbott's BinaxNOW. Abbott tossed a bunch of tests in the summer due to low demand, and Florida just had 1M tests expire in their storage, so it wasn't just the feds thinking the tests/masks wouldn't be needed as much now.

Terrifying Effigies
Oct 22, 2008

Problems look mighty small from 150 miles up.

What ded said but yeah, even the best case long term "endemic" level is not great and not the "return to 2019 normal" that everyone hopes for. Trevor Bedford is one of the more level headed analyst/commentators out there and did an interview back in late December on Delta and Omicron: https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/22/a-computational-biologist-weighs-in-on-omicron-the-future-of-vaccines-and-the-cdcs-variant-forecast/

quote:

In a recent Q&A you did with New York magazine, you talked about maybe this is what endemicity looks like. Is it possible that this is the first winter wave of endemic Covid?

It’s this 80% or 90% immunity stat. At endemicity, we’ll be at 100%. So, next year.

But 80% or 90% is very close to 100%. And the worry is that through things like Omicron and [antibody] waning and everything else that’s going on, that every winter we get significant attack rates. So I can imagine easily over the course of 2022 that 50% of people will catch Omicron or some other variant. So lots and lots of infections. Maybe we’ll stop counting cases as much because there’ll be a bunch of asymptomatic and mild infections that people don’t even bother to get tested for. A small proportion of severe disease and death. But I still could easily imagine 100,000 people [in the United States] dying every year from Covid in the endemic state just because you have a very big number of infections, even if the infection fatality rate is quite low.

And this is assuming that Omicron and future variants have lower overall fatality rates due to vaccinations, repeated infections, better therapeutics, and less overloading of the hospital system.

100K dead a year would be about 2x-10x what flu does normally in the US pre-Covid:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html posted:

CDC estimates that flu has resulted in 9 million – 41 million illnesses, 140,000 – 710,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 – 52,000 deaths annually between 2010 and 2020.

For the US at least it would be a little similar to going back to when we still had common illnesses like measles, polio, etc circulating that would regularly disable or kill a certain percentage of the population each year before we got them under control. On the long term if we can develop better and readily accessible treatments and re-normalize stuff like mandatory school age vaccinations in society (:smith::lol:) we might bring down Covid's impact to something like the flu, but hoping that it's just going to evolve into the common cold within our lifetimes is likely wishful thinking.

maffew buildings
Apr 29, 2009

too dumb to be probated; not too dumb to be autobanned
we can't do anything about covid until every lib has been owned and then everything will FINALLY be fine

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

I know how all these things are progressing, and till very recently, the answer was “decidedly not with maximum effective effort”.

Sure, Pfizer is hounding their suppliers now. What I’m saying is that nation‐states should have, many months ago, invested in the supply chains of precursors for every antiviral, even the ones that we now know would ultimately fizzle out in clinical trials. Every bet that doesn’t pay off covers the others ten thousand fold over.

When the U.S. heard that Heisenberg was splitting the atom for Hitler, what did it do? It threw science at the wall and saw what stuck. The U.S. built three secret cities almost from the ground up. All plausible methods of isotope enrichment were investigated at great scale. We now know that gaseous diffusion is the most practical. The U.S. built a gaseous diffusion plant, in what was then the world’s largest building, K-25, at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Also at Oak Ridge was Y-12, an electromagnetic separation plant in which resided fourteen thousand seven hundred tons of Treasury silver, borrowed to serve as conductors in its calutrons.

The bombs were carried by B-29 aircraft, the development of which was half again as expensive as the entire Manhattan Project. This was all ultimately directed from the Pentagon, built during the war and still the world’s largest office building.

That is how we once handled unknowns of great consequence.

Discussion Quorum
Dec 5, 2002
Armchair Philistine

Godholio posted:

This was one of my plans too, but do your research first and make sure you're competitive and understand the kind of salary you'd be looking at. 10 years ago, my local CC was paying $2500 per course, and they had almost twice as many phds in the department as they had courses to teach.

Late joining in on this one but this reflects my wife's experience teaching at a CC as well. Oh and if you're a top performer you'll get a potential FT position dangled in front of you every couple years only to hear "ah welp you know we just couldn't get it into the final moment" at the last moment. You can make up some of that by tutoring, but you'll have to do it at a different school lest you accidentally wander into "gotta provide benefits" territory :eng99:


ded posted:

Once again in this thread.

THERE IS NO HERD IMMUNITY FROM COVID

My wife has a "vaccine hesitant" friend, who had a really bad case followed by months of long COVID. You'll never guess what just happened!

she has covid again

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
People getting multiple cases of Covid is still kind of crazy when I remember that it was initially thought that once you got it that it would be like chickenpox or something, one and done.

Hell it’ll be interesting one day to see a examination of the first few years of this and just see how many things that were initially thought turned out totally wrong. Basically a Pandemic AAR. Besides just the fact that would probably be interesting would also help to avoid the same type of mistakes in the future. Of course some Q dip poo poo will just take that as proof that you can’t trust science. But that is their problem.

Defenestrategy
Oct 24, 2010

Marshal Prolapse posted:

People getting multiple cases of Covid is still kind of crazy when I remember that it was initially thought that once you got it that it would be like chickenpox or something, one and done.

Hell it’ll be interesting one day to see a examination of the first few years of this and just see how many things that were initially thought turned out totally wrong. Basically a Pandemic AAR. Besides just the fact that would probably be interesting would also help to avoid the same type of mistakes in the future. Of course some Q dip poo poo will just take that as proof that you can’t trust science. But that is their problem.

I don't think we'll see an AAR. The sheer amount of irresponsible assholes with power that helped contribute to our current state of affairs, from the greedy to the ignorant would smother any half way decent AAR. I mean the number 2 takeaway beyond "capitalism sucks at handling any sort of existential crisis" is "the republican party knowingly or unknowingly is going to exacerbate any existential crisis and make it magnitudes worse in body count"

Zamujasa
Oct 27, 2010



Bread Liar

Discussion Quorum posted:

Late joining in on this one but this reflects my wife's experience teaching at a CC as well. Oh and if you're a top performer you'll get a potential FT position dangled in front of you every couple years only to hear "ah welp you know we just couldn't get it into the final moment" at the last moment. You can make up some of that by tutoring, but you'll have to do it at a different school lest you accidentally wander into "gotta provide benefits" territory :eng99:

My wife has a "vaccine hesitant" friend, who had a really bad case followed by months of long COVID. You'll never guess what just happened!

she has covid again

just wait for her to get the booster dose :v:

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Defenestrategy posted:

I don't think we'll see an AAR. The sheer amount of irresponsible assholes with power that helped contribute to our current state of affairs, from the greedy to the ignorant would smother any half way decent AAR. I mean the number 2 takeaway beyond "capitalism sucks at handling any sort of existential crisis" is "the republican party knowingly or unknowingly is going to exacerbate any existential crisis and make it magnitudes worse in body count"

Also, just look back at how the Spanish Flu was papered over.

Duzzy Funlop
Jan 13, 2010

Hi there, would you like to try some spicy products?
Bunch of influencers/reality show contestants charter a flight to Cancun, party hard, ignore all airline safety / covid regulations, airline even offers to admit them on the return flight if they can abide by the rules, they decline, airline leaves them stranded in Cancun, 30 of them test positive for the roni.

https://www.cp24.com/news/airlines-won-t-fly-home-quebec-passengers-from-sunwing-party-flight-to-mexico-1.5728747

Wasabi the J
Jan 23, 2008

MOM WAS RIGHT


Milo and POTUS
Sep 3, 2017

I will not shut up about the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers. I talk about them all the time and work them into every conversation I have. I built a shrine in my room for the yellow one who died because sadly no one noticed because she died around 9/11. Wanna see it?
It's shocking just how blatant it all is

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Mike Moore covered the Carlyle Group in detail in Fahrenheit 911, fwiw

Xenoborg
Mar 10, 2007

I've not really been following the Maxwell stuff too closely, but I just had a thought: Where are all the charges against the clients who used the Epstein/Maxwell "services"?

edit: VV yeah I kinda figured that would be the answer :(

Xenoborg fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Jan 9, 2022

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Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

c-spam cannot afford



Xenoborg posted:

I've not really been following the Maxwell stuff too closely, but I just had a thought: Where are all the charges against the clients who used the Epstein/Maxwell "services"?

:lol:

Do you think the wealthiest and most powerful people on the planet are ever going to face consequences? Epstein’s best friend was Donald Trump. Epstein clients include members of the British royal family and multiple former US presidents. Nothing is going to happen to any of them because they control the systems that could potentially be used to punish them.

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