|
https://twitter.com/business/status/1349546896596094978?lang=en Previously: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3139854/chinas-foreign-currency-deposits-pass-us1-trillion-banks-face quote:But it turns out Chinese banks are now shifting their US dollar holdings to the offshore market, creating massive outflows recorded under “other investments” of China’s financial account. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/mystery-of-china-s-huge-dollar-surplus-baffles-global-markets quote:Unprecedented trade surpluses and record inflows into its bond market are giving China a stockpile of United States dollars unseen since the days when the "Asian savings glut" was blamed for keeping US interest rates excessively low and fueling the sub-prime mortgage crisis. would be an interesting question if Chinese banks run out of domestic safe assets, can't issue more for leverage limit reasons, but are holding a gargantuan amount of offshore USD that they equally can't repatriate for exchange rate target reasons. Does that count as an FX problem or a liquidity problem?
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2022 06:20
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 2, 2024 09:37 |
|
|
It certainly seems like a good reason not to go to war with the United States in any case.
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2022 15:07
|
|
|
How are u posted:I agree. I've said it before in this thread and, sadly, it looks like I'll continue to be saying it: I was really hopeful for China before Xi rose to power and took this incredibly authoritarian turn. Both China and Russia should be natural partners of the US in a multi-polar world, but their authoritarian leaders are stoking nationalism and conflict to further their own personal power and it is all just such a drat shame. Liberalism would've doomed China in the face of covid. That authoritarian turn has kept a tight lid on it thus far. Hopefully, they will see it through.
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2022 20:03
|
|
|
Judakel posted:Liberalism would've doomed China in the face of covid. That authoritarian turn has kept a tight lid on it thus far. Hopefully, they will see it through. It didn’t doom Taiwan. I think you can get the effective state capacity of China without sacrificing individual rights too much.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 01:14
|
|
|
Taiwan is also an island sixty times smaller than mainland China. E: Following up on prior Lithuania discussion: Most Lithuanians critical of Vilnius’ China policy – survey quote:The survey, conducted on December 10-18, asked respondents, among other questions, how they viewed Lithuania's policy on China. Only 13 percent said they supported it, while 60 percent had a negative opinion. Appears that Lithuania's gambit has backfired on several fronts. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 02:16 on Jan 15, 2022 |
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 02:11
|
|
|
Smeef posted:It didn’t doom Taiwan. I think you can get the effective state capacity of China without sacrificing individual rights too much. Taiwan is the exception that proves the rule.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 03:44
|
|
|
What does "doomed by COVID" mean and why is it aided by liberalism in this context?
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 04:23
|
|
|
Nilbop posted:What does "doomed by COVID" mean and why is it aided by liberalism in this context? Covid persistent in large portions of the population for years and years. Prioritizing the economy, reaching for market-based solutions, employing public-private partnerships in your response, and a focus on individual rights and freedoms are going to hamper your efforts to respond to a deadly, debilitating virus that spreads easily among the population and must be contained and exterminated at all costs if your society is to continue to function.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 05:05
|
|
|
But there's no sign that it has been exterminated, and I'm not sure what line you're drawing between Chinese society continuing to function and any "liberal" society's.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 06:51
|
|
|
Covid is endemic to the planet now, zero-covid is not a viable endgame strategy. China has been very successful at managing the pandemic (if you ignore the first few months of Wuhan officials saying NOTHING IS WRONG as all the crematoria in the region max out for some reason) but there is an inevitable point where it is going to have to accept that something like omicron is going to rip through a vaccinated population. e: and having had a very successful vaccine rollout and with the globally dominant version of covid being one that infects vaccinated people but doesn't put them in hospital, if not now then when?
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 10:00
|
|
|
That seems like a plan that results in an awful lot of dead people solely because there is no longer the will to combat a deadly illness. That does not seem like a very convincing moral argument.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 10:01
|
|
|
Presuming that no new variants emerge, it does seem likely that China will drop the zero-covid strategy in 2022 anyway. Either after the Olympics (when it can pin the wave on foreign travellers, as it did with Delta) or after the 20th Party Congress (near the end of the year).
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 10:32
|
|
|
Josef bugman posted:That seems like a plan that results in an awful lot of dead people solely because there is no longer the will to combat a deadly illness. That does not seem like a very convincing moral argument. Its not a deadly disease once the morbidity is low enough and vaccination prevents illness. You arent arguing that China should impose similar measures to eradicate the flu. E: in any case it just isn't practical to try and keep the Chinese population totally isolated from the rest of the planet forever, even for the CCP. That dam is going to break at some point, so why not pick the moment of minimum harm? Alchenar fucked around with this message at 10:43 on Jan 15, 2022 |
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 10:38
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:Covid is endemic to the planet now, zero-covid is not a viable endgame strategy. China has been very successful at managing the pandemic (if you ignore the first few months of Wuhan officials saying NOTHING IS WRONG as all the crematoria in the region max out for some reason) but there is an inevitable point where it is going to have to accept that something like omicron is going to rip through a vaccinated population. I don’t see why China would drop its zero covid policy. It’s both politically popular and has paid dividends economically.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 11:32
|
|
|
doesn’t put them in the hospital? stop lying
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 11:36
|
|
|
fart simpson posted:doesn’t put them in the hospital? stop lying Yeah, in a country with a population of 1.4 billion people, even when most are vaccinated, COVID has the potential to flood and overwhelm the medical system. Comparing COVID to the flu is ridiculous because the flu isn’t remotely as infectious as COVID. Zero COVID is clearly a better strategy
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 11:41
|
|
|
I get the feeling with recent issues in Xi'an and the total lockdown in Anyang over a few cases, zero covid is getting a little bit less popular in China. People are being discouraged from going home again for new year, and now that Omicron is basically burning through populations everywhere else leading to herd immunity and, crucially, a much reduced fatality rate (including amongst the unvaccinated) compared to delta, I don't blame people who are wondering whether it's the right course of action to keep the borders firmly closed and discourage all international travel and a lot of domestic travel. How sustainable is this policy? What's the endgame? Hope covid just burns itself out everywhere else or that some miracle vaccine will eradicate it entirely? For the record I think China has done the right thing for the last couple of years in pursuing zero covid. But there are certainly questions about whether it remains the correct course of action with Omicron as the dominant variant.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 11:44
|
|
|
The endgame is to keep their population alive and healthy, and also to expand economically at the expense of nations who don’t care about their population getting sick and dying. They can do this for however long COVID sticks around If you have any concrete evidence that the population would prefer a pandemic that will kill their grandparents over taking a mandatory test or staying indoors for two weeks, I’d like to see it
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 11:53
|
|
|
If you read my post I said "I get the feeling" so I don't know what concrete evidence you are fishing for, there's been a lot of grumbling about harsh covid restrictions on WeChat recently. There is already some suggestion that Omicron might be much less deadly than the flu, which we don't have lockdowns for. I think there is certainly room to ask questions about the continued viability of the current plan (and I still think zero covid is a good idea for the time being) but shutting everything down by saying "your grandparents will die" is not helpful at all. Plus restrictions do not just entail two weeks indoors or mandatory testing, there are currently lots of multinational families separated by covid restrictions in China and international students who can't get back into the country.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 12:03
|
|
|
quote:同时也有迹象表明，情况在朝着有利于人类的方向发。中国此时最佳的策略是保持战略定力与耐心，维持强化疫苗接种与公共卫生防控策略两手抓的策略，以时间换空间，最终在最合适的时间节点，以极低新冠死亡率顺利度过大流行期，逐步实现生活的正常化。... ('以时间换空间' 'trading space for time' is a reference to the Chinese WW2 strategy of postponing confrontation and tactically retreating) it's a tendentious topic on Chinese social networks with nationalists vigorously arguing for zero-covid, but expert analysis in the Chinese sphere is not really that different from outside it: at some point the former zero-covid sphere will re-open to some acceptably low mortality rate, and it will get to that unspecified point through vaccination it's worth appreciating that zero-covid is not rare regionally - countries from South Korea to Singapore to Australia all managed it previously, Western/Asian or liberal/authoritarian alike. The question is just over capacity vs costs. "Closed borders forever" is not in the cards.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 12:38
|
|
|
Judakel posted:Taiwan is the exception that proves the rule. Exception to what rule? There are not many other countries — liberal, authoritarian, failed state, whatever — that have performed similarly. NZ dropped its covid zero policy but still has minimal deaths, I guess. All of the policies that seem to have been key to Beijing’s covid response have been done elsewhere, too. I don’t see them as part of the authoritarian moves in the last few years. What exactly was enabled by the authoritarian shift that would not have otherwise been possible?
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 12:41
|
|
|
If the flu could infect a million new people in a single day and could penetrate vaccine defenses we probably would take it more seriously. Which is why flu comparisons make no sense at all. Also we should differentiate between “zero COVID” and “closed borders”. China will likely re-open its borders after the omicron wave passes (but will still enforce temporary quarantine on arrival), they will not abandon zero COVID Red and Black fucked around with this message at 14:16 on Jan 15, 2022 |
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 14:05
|
|
|
Vietnam is not a liberal democracy and had one of the best Covid responses on the planet. However they too gave up on total lockdowns and now implement a mixture of regional restrictions, Mass testing, and vaccines. Otherwise, life is pretty normal there right now.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 14:34
|
|
|
What part of China's covid response requires Uighur concentration camps?
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 17:14
|
|
|
Spoke Lee posted:What part of China's covid response requires Uighur concentration camps? what an odd question. did someone suggest it did?
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 17:38
|
|
|
Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:what an odd question. did someone suggest it did? It's been stated that increased authoritarianism is required to respond to covid. That China has to rule as it does to protect the health of it's citizens. The concentration camps are a glaring part of the "authoritarian turn" that was mentioned. I'm in agreement with other posters that brutality isn't a necessary part.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 17:55
|
|
|
not sure I follow you on that logic. the american concentration camps for undesirable ethnic groups don't appear to have improved their covid response at all. between that and the strong performance of other SE Asian countries in handling the pandemic, 'authoritarianism' appears wholly disconnected from the issue of whether your government thinks it should try to protect you from Covid.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:06
|
|
|
Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:not sure I follow you on that logic. the american concentration camps for undesirable ethnic groups don't appear to have improved their covid response at all. That's my point. You don't need to defend state violence and repression by saying it's the reason they have been able to effectively respond to covid.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:14
|
|
|
and as soon as I see someone saying the uighurs need to be locked up to stop the spread of covid, it will be a relevant observation?
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:16
|
|
|
You don't need to have an authoritarian government but you do need to enact "authoritarian" policies if you want to prevent spread. There's also a libertarian approach to pandemic control but it's not quite as popular in practice The real dividing line is between governments that are capable of dealing with a crisis of the commons and ones that are not Spoke Lee posted:What part of China's covid response requires Uighur concentration camps? Since this wasn't directed at anybody I'm going to assume it's just a question. In which case let me answer it for you - none. If anybody said that do let me know
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:17
|
|
|
rapidly coming around to the view that the word 'authoritarian' is the flip side of the joke 'when government does a thing, that's socialism, and the more things government does, the more socialist it is' seriously, outside of privatization, is there a single government action it doesn't describe?
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:21
|
|
|
I don't agree that mandatory testing and lockdowns are "authoritarian" but then again the word has become a meaningless pejorative and encompasses a broad range of disconnected meanings at this point.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:25
|
|
|
How are u posted:I agree. I've said it before in this thread and, sadly, it looks like I'll continue to be saying it: I was really hopeful for China before Xi rose to power and took this incredibly authoritarian turn. Both China and Russia should be natural partners of the US in a multi-polar world, but their authoritarian leaders are stoking nationalism and conflict to further their own personal power and it is all just such a drat shame. Judakel posted:Liberalism would've doomed China in the face of covid. That authoritarian turn has kept a tight lid on it thus far. Hopefully, they will see it through. This came after multiple pages of Judakel supporting China's treatment of HK and positions on Taiwan. Along with his past minimizing of the atrocity in Xinjiang. He then redirected a conversation about the broader increased authoritarianism under Xi toward covid by saying if it wasn't for this authoritarian turn they wouldn't have been able to deal with covid. Lockddowns, tests, vaccines and quarantines aren't a part of this as it has been pointed out other countries have done these without the measures alluded to. How can you talk about increased authoritarianism under Xi without including the treatment of Uighurs? Spoke Lee fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Jan 15, 2022 |
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:35
|
|
|
Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:not sure I follow you on that logic. the american concentration camps for undesirable ethnic groups don't appear to have improved their covid response at all. And which "american concentration camps" would these be, exactly Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:rapidly coming around to the view that the word 'authoritarian' is the flip side of the joke 'when government does a thing, that's socialism, and the more things government does, the more socialist it is' All government is authoritarian. Pack it in, political science, it's over.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:37
|
|
|
Plastic_Gargoyle posted:And which "american concentration camps" would these be, exactly immigration detention
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:37
|
|
|
e: actually why am I bothering
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:41
|
|
|
Spoke Lee posted:This came after multiple pages of Judakel supporting China's treatment of HK and positions on Taiwan. Along with his past minimizing of the atrocity in Xinjiang. He then redirected a conversation about the broader increased authoritarianism under Xi toward covid by saying if it wasn't for this authoritarian turn they wouldn't have been able to deal with covid. Lockddowns, tests, vaccines and quarantines aren't a part of this as it has been pointed out other countries have done these without the measures alluded to. In the future, please be clearer what, and - if applicable, who - you're responding to. The Uyghur concentration camps also began years before COVID, so they would not be included in any authoritarian measures taken in response to COVID. Perhaps that was your point? I haven't read everything Judakel said, which is also why it's very helpful to provide quotes when responding like this.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:54
|
|
|
Note: YMB is unforumbanned. Perhaps I should make a stickied list of who's been unforumbanned, but it's only a few people right now so I wasn't sure if it was worth it. Of course, if he does anything to make discussion worse, you may report him, as with any other user.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 18:56
|
|
|
Koos Group posted:In the future, please be clearer what, and - if applicable, who - you're responding to. The Uyghur concentration camps also began years before COVID, so they would not be included in any authoritarian measures taken in response to COVID. Perhaps that was your point? I haven't read everything Judakel said, which is also why it's very helpful to provide quotes when responding like this. My bad, I originally thought I hit reply on the post but wrongly assumed it would be clear anyway. And, yes that was the overall point I was going for.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 19:04
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 2, 2024 09:37 |
|
|
When I or HRU speak of China being more "liberalized" its still in the context of the CCP governing the country and still being an ostensible Socialist state; not that it's as dysfunctional as the US, UK, or Canada. Namely less political repression, a little freer market for tech industries (note this doesn't mean less regulation i.e labour laws or common sense restrictions on consumer data collection & usage); none of this means or implies a lesser willingness to take extraordinary measures to contain and control the spread of infectious diseases. Extraordinary circumstances require extraordinary measures. The US is hamstrung by a government designed to prevent the majority from enacting its mandate, a government designed to prevent the majority from acquiring proportional representation of their interests, and a system designed to defang a strong centralized government in favour of misnomered "Federalism". A basket case among basket cases that have the means and powers to do what is necessary but refuse nonetheless.
|
|
#
?
Jan 15, 2022 19:19
|
|
