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Voting... Machine? I just love voting here in Colorado
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Nov 3, 2022 15:23
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Wasabi the J posted:Blame Biden I assume you weren't responding to me because none of this seems to address what I asked about? Proud Christian Mom posted:Just a reminder that inflation isn't real and is just companies cranking the prices to 11 and then crying because for the first time in decades real wage growth started to occur and it was eating into the bottom line. this is exactly my point - the rate raising up until now has done little to curtail "inflation" while placing first time homebuyers further and further from being able to access the kind of programs that generate any amount of generational wealth for your average family We need a legislative solution and what we are getting is a hammer dropped on poor people. Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Nov 3, 2022 |
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Nov 3, 2022 16:21
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God loving dammit, Netanyahu is back as PM of Israel. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1588209655175872513 That dude is the political equivalent of a cold sore- he’ll always come back and be worse than the last time.
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Nov 3, 2022 17:44
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psydude posted:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/22/homes/us-home-prices-falling/index.html Prices rose by 13% in October and are gradually slowing. There's been some regional price correction, but nationally prices are expected to dip about 5% over the next year. So let's not pretend things are getting affordable. The current "high" level of supply is because homes are spending longer on the market not because of new listings, and new home construction slowed by double-digits in September (probably October, too), so once the current construction wave ends, supply levels are going to tank again. Price drops will not follow. I'm trying to buy right now, and it's loving atrocious out there. Edit: A.o.D. posted:Maybe I'm way the gently caress out of the box here, but I feel that 600k houses are a bigger problem than 15% interest rates. Blame Blackrock, Zillow, and whatever forces control construction on a large scale. Looking at the average home price of $542,900, every .75% increase adds over $250 per month to the mortgage (and increasing each time). If we get another one, it'll add almost 290. Godholio fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Nov 3, 2022 |
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Nov 3, 2022 17:57
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pantslesswithwolves posted:God loving dammit, Netanyahu I'm starting to think a majority of israelis have genuinely bad political opinions. If only they wou...  ld give peace a chance gently caress I've become a hateful hippie
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Nov 3, 2022 18:03
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Godholio posted:I'm trying to buy right now, and it's loving atrocious out there. I've got so many friends that bought last year. On the one hand, they're probably going to be underwater on their mortgages soon, but on the other at least they were able to lock in a bargain basement interest rate.
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Nov 3, 2022 18:09
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ThisIsJohnWayne posted:I'm starting to think a majority of israelis have genuinely bad political opinions. If only they wou... someone named Bush 3 times
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Nov 3, 2022 18:10
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psydude posted:I've got so many friends that bought last year. On the one hand, they're probably going to be underwater on their mortgages soon, but on the other at least they were able to lock in a bargain basement interest rate. Except they're not, because prices are not going to plummet. This isn't 2008, sadly. Supply is going to remain low enough to keep prices up.
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Nov 3, 2022 18:11
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psydude posted:I've got so many friends that bought last year. On the one hand, they're probably going to be underwater on their mortgages soon, but on the other at least they were able to lock in a bargain basement interest rate. A buddy bought last year and ended up prez of his homeowners association when he’s the last person who’d I have thought would be in that position. Seems to be going fine as it’s only three houses and all he’s had to do so far has been lower dues and coordinate with the city for a minor street repair.
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Nov 3, 2022 18:44
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Godholio posted:Except they're not, because prices are not going to plummet. This isn't 2008, sadly. Supply is going to remain low enough to keep prices up. that and, as mentioned earlier, skyrocketing corporate profits mean they can invest more in real estate the "inflation isn't real" argument is being taken at face value when it's hyperbole; obviously inflation is real, but the specific "inflation" we are going through right now is pure bullshit. what we're seeing now is a mixture of actual supply issues mixed in with a ton of pure profit motive the 95% of the population that is not making money hand over fist is not seeing an expanded money supply causing prices to go up, they're seeing their stagnant wages over the last decade buying less and less because the ceo of whatever monopoly grocery chain exists now has decided he needs to buy his 37th yacht and he figured out that the penalty for loving everyone into poverty is literally nothing
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Nov 3, 2022 19:03
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lightpole posted:Inflation is good only if you max your credit on things that will appreciate in value in the future. Inflation is bad if you max your credit and spend it on things you need to survive today. This is untrue. Dollars will be cheaper in the future, when you need to repay; you will be able to consume more things in total by maxing your credit pre-inflation. Godholio posted:Blame Blackrock, Zillow, and whatever forces control construction on a large scale. Municipalities. This is municipalities. Whoever controls permitting, environmental reviews, etc controls construction. Market participants just respond to incentives created by regulators.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:18
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Zamujasa posted:that and, as mentioned earlier, skyrocketing corporate profits mean they can invest more in real estate Things cost more now than they did yesterday. This is the definition of inflation, the driver is irrelevant as to whether or not it is happening. Prices also don't rise in a vacuum. Groceries are a very competitive market so large price rises aren't happening just because. hypnophant posted:This is untrue. Dollars will be cheaper in the future, when you need to repay; you will be able to consume more things in total by maxing your credit pre-inflation. Repayment will be cheaper but you will have to repay as well as buy the same items you borrowed for with the same income. The rich can leverage credit, the poor just use it to get by. lightpole fucked around with this message at 19:26 on Nov 3, 2022 |
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Nov 3, 2022 19:22
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Massive layoffs ongoing with a bunch of startups.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:28
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pantslesswithwolves posted:God loving dammit, Netanyahu is back as PM of Israel. G-ddamnit.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:29
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lightpole posted:Things cost more now than they did yesterday. This is the definition of inflation, the driver is irrelevant as to whether or not it is happening. Can you explain the Canadian bread cartel then? I don't have any economy education and try to not post about things that are out of my depth, but even I know that Macroeconomics like inflation needs to br understood holistically. You can't isolate any one part of it if you're going to explain how it works.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:32
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lightpole posted:Repayment will be cheaper but you will have to repay as well as buy the same items you borrowed for with the same income. The rich can leverage credit, the poor just use it to get by. You can still buy more in absolute terms. Whether or not you can buy all of the things you need to survive - or more realistically, to fully participate in society - is not guaranteed over your lifetime, but if you are in the red, you can get closer by maxing your credit.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:32
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lightpole posted:Groceries are a very competitive market so large price rises aren't happening just because.  https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/us-lawmakers-set-hearing-big-grocery-merger-amid-fears-price-hikes-2022-10-18/
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Nov 3, 2022 19:37
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Xakura posted:
grocery stores get bigger by offering lower prices to their customers, not higher. groceries that overprice will very quickly price themselves right out of the market since there’s no moat e: in case it’s not obvious this is why walmart is so drat big. if you give people a slightly cheaper alternative they will run to it regardless of the quality, community impact, etc etc
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Nov 3, 2022 19:51
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hypnophant posted:This is untrue. Dollars will be cheaper in the future, when you need to repay; you will be able to consume more things in total by maxing your credit pre-inflation. does this work even if the inflation rate doesn't beat your card's interest rate? it seems like it wouldn't
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Nov 3, 2022 19:51
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hypnophant posted:grocery stores get bigger by offering lower prices to their customers, not higher. groceries that overprice will very quickly price themselves right out of the market since there’s no moat Ironically enough, Kroger is most expensive in my area and it's not even close.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:52
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lightpole posted:Groceries are a very competitive market so large price rises aren't happening just because. Are they? We're seeing increasing consolidation in the groceries marketplace so I expect that prices will only rise as the stranglehold increases. Anecdotally, I only have big grocery store within 45 minutes of me, two small independent markets and two dollar stores. Its a pretty dire situation.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:54
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hypnophant posted:grocery stores get bigger by offering lower prices to their customers, not higher. groceries that overprice will very quickly price themselves right out of the market since there’s no moat Not sure if this holds up when other alternative stores are not easily reached / available and then what happens when the megamart creates a local monopoly. Where then does the competitive pressure to drive down prices come from?
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Nov 3, 2022 20:05
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VSOKUL girl posted:does this work even if the inflation rate doesn't beat your card's interest rate? it seems like it wouldn't sort of. inflation always makes repayment cheaper but finance charges complicate the picture because, effectively, they reduce lifetime wealth; there’s a tradeoff, in economic terms, between income effect and substitution effect. What I’m arguing is that if you already had to borrow to pay for daily essentials, inflation is good for you because it will allow you to buy more of those things over your lifetime. An economics lesson follows. When you borrow, you’re always trading future consumption for present consumption. You do this for two reasons, basically: you expect future income to be much higher and you would like to consume more today, and don’t mind losing a little of your total income to shift that consumption forward; college students are an example of someone in this position. The other condition is, you are very impatient and can’t wait until the future to consume some of your lifetime income. People with lower income are more likely to be in this position. (Economists usually denote this as beta, the discount rate; beta closer to one means you’re more patient; you don’t discount future consumption relative to present consumption.) Say you’re in position two. Your rent is due today and you can’t buy groceries and pay the rent, so you put the groceries on credit. Next month you have to pay the groceries plus a finance charge. Now, the amount of that doesn’t change due to inflation. What does change is the amount of groceries you could buy with that finance charge; last month that finance charge would have paid for a loaf of bread plus bananas, but this month it’ll only pay for the bread. The groceries you bought last month would also have cost more this month if you’d waited until the money was in your pocket to buy them; you would’ve had to buy one less gallon of milk. So in effect you’re losing less to the finance charge, plus you’re shifting some of your consumption to the earlier period when it’s cheaper (in nominal terms.) It’s admittedly counterintuitive, there’s a tradeoff, and you’re better off in all circumstances if you can afford to buy groceries without the credit card. (Duh.) But if you’re in a position where you have to, inflation ends up making you better off, strictly considering your debt. (If your nominal wages never go up, then of course you are worse off, but being on a fixed income is a labor/political/absolute poverty problem, not something that specifically arises because of inflation. That Works posted:Not sure if this holds up when other alternative stores are not easily reached / available and then what happens when the megamart creates a local monopoly. Where then does the competitive pressure to drive down prices come from? If the store was profitable before the price rise, someone new can come in and open a new grocery store at the old prices and steal all the customers from megamart. If they can’t, the store probably wasn’t profitable and the area would be a food desert without the megastore, and that’s a problem but again it’s an absolute poverty problem, not a specific inflation problem. hypnophant fucked around with this message at 20:25 on Nov 3, 2022 |
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Nov 3, 2022 20:15
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hypnophant posted:grocery stores get bigger by offering lower prices to their customers, not higher. groceries that overprice will very quickly price themselves right out of the market until you realize there is no market to be priced out of because other grocery stores closed or got bought out or just never existed once you get big enough that there's no effective competition, the game is over. like sure, you can't go full on pay us $100 for a loaf insane, but nobody is going to drive 10 miles further just to save a few bucks at a store that's missing most of the selection i mean it doesn't really matter either way because the end result is that anybody who isn't making six figures is seeing what little wealth they have get eaten away by constant price hikes and stagnant wages and the idiots in charge are deciding that we need to reduce wages instead
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Nov 3, 2022 20:25
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Sharing this thing of beauty.
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Nov 3, 2022 20:26
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Zamujasa posted:once you get big enough that there's no effective competition, the game is over. like sure, you can't go full on pay us $100 for a loaf insane, but nobody is going to drive 10 miles further just to save a few bucks at a store that's missing most of the selection fundamentally, this only happens because the bigger store is able to offer lower prices than two competing smaller stores could because of economies of scale. There isn’t any other advantage to being big; you keep out competitors by undercutting them on price. If you can raise your prices and still undercut any potential competitors, the price increases aren’t because of your profit margin; they’re because costs have gone up for everyone.
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Nov 3, 2022 20:30
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hypnophant posted:price increases aren’t because of your profit margin; they’re because costs have gone up for everyone. https://www.forbes.com/sites/errolschweizer/2022/09/12/how-profit-inflation-made-your-groceries-so-drat-expensive/?sh=70a3fbaf2eb9 And yet margins went up far more than wages. quote:Commodities:
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Nov 3, 2022 20:45
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Mr. Nice! posted:Sharing this thing of beauty. Lindell is currently screaming that Bolsonaro didn't lose and there were 5.1 million fraudulent votes. I'm not sure if Lindell is nuttier or Elon is nuttier. It works!
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Nov 3, 2022 20:51
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That Works posted:https://www.forbes.com/sites/errolschweizer/2022/09/12/how-profit-inflation-made-your-groceries-so-drat-expensive/?sh=70a3fbaf2eb9 https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/food-prices-and-spending/ and yet groceries (food at home) as a fraction of total income declined to barely 5% as of 2021; we’ll see what the number is for 2022 but it would take much higher inflation than we’ve seen for that to reach 6%. Total food budget as a fraction of total income has been steadily declining since the 60s. Grocery prices are less volatile than farm prices or energy prices. I don’t know what you think wages have to do with it, please elaborate.
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Nov 3, 2022 20:54
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hypnophant posted:If the store was profitable before the price rise, someone new can come in and open a new grocery store at the old prices and steal all the customers from megamart. If they can’t, the store probably wasn’t profitable and the area would be a food desert without the megastore, and that’s a problem but again it’s an absolute poverty problem, not a specific inflation problem. Why of course, why didn't I think of that? Just open up a store with a massive logistical tail with all this capital I just have lying around, and purchase below rate from all of the *checks notes* ten suppliers who control that entire logistics chain!
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Nov 3, 2022 21:03
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M_Gargantua posted:Why of course, why didn't I think of that? Just open up a store with a massive logistical tail with all this capital I just have lying around, and purchase below rate from all of the *checks notes* ten suppliers who control that entire logistics chain! Congratulations, you have identified the problem: consumers have come to expect groceries to cost x, but it’s extremely expensive to provide groceries at a cost of x, so only the biggest supermarket chains can afford to do it. If you want groceries to cost less than x, you have to pay extra to those chains or pay even more to start your own competing chain, which is sub-optimal
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Nov 3, 2022 21:08
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And you have sucinctly summarized why we are Systemically hosed and not Intrinsically being hosed. There is no shortage of food, or housing, or logistical transport, or medicine, the only shortage that exists is the maw of profits and expected growth on balance sheets. These things we want to buy are not rare and precious, there is no underlying production reason why wages are not keeping up with inflation.
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Nov 3, 2022 21:12
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https://twitter.com/MikeBalsamo1/status/1588261640163954689 Trump Org is going to have a NY government official monitoring the business to keep them from their continued shady poo poo.
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Nov 3, 2022 21:15
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M_Gargantua posted:There is no shortage of housing, i disagree in the strongest possible terms, and in only slightly less strong terms when it comes to the other factors, and I would also include energy, both as a political factor and when taking into account future externalities of hydrocarbons
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Nov 3, 2022 21:22
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Mr. Nice! posted:https://twitter.com/MikeBalsamo1/status/1588261640163954689 Just how incorruptible is this official supposed to be.
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Nov 3, 2022 21:23
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hypnophant posted:Congratulations, you have identified the problem: consumers have come to expect groceries to cost x, but it’s extremely expensive to provide groceries at a cost of x, so only the biggest supermarket chains can afford to do it. If you want groceries to cost less than x, you have to pay extra to those chains or pay even more to start your own competing chain, which is sub-optimal one problem you might be overlooking is that nobody "wants" groceries to cost less than x, they need groceries to be affordable, same as housing, clothing, and utilities unlike shiny new gadgets or other dumb bullshit, people need food to live hypnophant posted:https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/food-prices-and-spending/ you also completely overlooked something in your "but it's only 5%" quote: quote:U.S. households with higher incomes spend more money on food, but the amount spent represents a smaller overall portion of their budgets. In 2021, households in the lowest income quintile spent an average of $4,875 on food (representing 30.6 percent of income), while households in the highest income quintile spent an average of $13,973 on food (representing 7.6 percent of income). 30 percent
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Nov 3, 2022 21:25
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hypnophant posted:i disagree in the strongest possible terms, and in only slightly less strong terms when it comes to the other factors, and I would also include energy, both as a political factor and when taking into account future externalities of hydrocarbons The only metric by which you can argue there is a shortage of housing is that there is a shortage of housing in <15m proximity to dense employment locations. The suburb and exurb sprawls have made housing near gainful employment more difficult. But as far as available housing to American households? We have so much surplus you could squat in it.
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Nov 3, 2022 21:26
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hypnophant posted:grocery stores get bigger by offering lower prices to their customers, not higher. groceries that overprice will very quickly price themselves right out of the market since there’s no moat Unless theres no competition
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Nov 3, 2022 21:26
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Arrath posted:Just how incorruptible is this official supposed to be. Well, here are the job requirements: https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1588262340608155648?t=k8YjO4SunNL3Wdt6jq5MsQ&s=19 Michael Cohen? 
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Nov 3, 2022 21:27
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Arrath posted:Just how incorruptible is this official supposed to be. Robert Mueller is back baby
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Nov 3, 2022 21:32
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