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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Tim Kaine is making "an announcement about his future in the Senate" tomorrow morning. I would think Virginia could do better than him as Senator, but their recent electoral history is sending a mixed message. Zero_Grade fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Jan 19, 2023 |
# ? Jan 19, 2023 22:49 |
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# ? Jun 27, 2024 02:04 |
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With the climate change and world war 3 and so forth all being helped along by the annihilation of the world economy it might be bold to assume theres such a thing as "history books" in 2073.
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 22:50 |
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BDawg posted:I swear I saw an article this week or last where they said they all but had it figured out.
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 22:51 |
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Foxfire_ posted:Someone unofficially saying "we've all but figured it out (that it was Alito or Thomas)" doesn't seem at all inconsistent with a final report that goes " it's impossible to ever know" Yeah, the common ground shared by those two announcements is that they did figure who it is internally and then either realized, or were told, that the political reality means it can never be published Alternatively, they truly didn't find the culprit. Coincidentally, the investigation only covered the justices' staff, not the justices themselves, or their spouses
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 22:55 |
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Randalor posted:I figure I'll ask here because I can't seem to find a general "US Economy and You" thread, but in the event the US does default (and considering the Freedom Caucus, it actually stands a pretty good chance of doing so this time round), what does that mean for the regular person, and how would that affect the US dollar in relation to other countries currencies? Little late to this but it'll gently caress the rest of our lives up hard and probably crest into new economic "lost generations" who have to live in the shadow of some big time wealth and prosperity erasure that hits down hard
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 23:10 |
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projecthalaxy posted:With the climate change and world war 3 and so forth all being helped along by the annihilation of the world economy it might be bold to assume theres such a thing as "history books" in 2073. Yeah the profits from these opportunities and emerging markets will vastly outpace physical publishing
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 23:13 |
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haveblue posted:Yeah, the common ground shared by those two announcements is that they did figure who it is internally and then either realized, or were told, that the political reality means it can never be published Cops don’t do well with real whodunnits, especially when the major suspects aren’t even on the radar. The court is a laughable institution anyway so all this checks out.
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 23:15 |
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-Blackadder- posted:I can't seem to find the drat article I saw it in (it mentioned something about someone "seeing things for how they are") but the concern I keep seeing is that the GOP aren't just the dumb kid running at the brick wall this time. Doesn't matter. As soon as payments get missed on any US debt, that's a crisis. We actually had a pretty good demonstration of the kind of chaos that can result just a few months ago, when a newly-elected conservative governor in a South Korean province decided to refuse to pay some debt that had been taken out to subsidize the construction of a Legoland. The result was a months-long credit crisis across the entire country. local governments couldn't take out any more debt because they couldn't get anyone to buy it. Banks stopped offering some types of loan to anyone, including private companies and individuals. Skyrocketing interest rates made the remaining kinds of loan nearly unaffordable, and many major companies were soon at risk of bankruptcy due to a liquidity crisis as loans were no longer available. The South Korean federal government was able to avert a full-blown crisis by rapidly plowing a ton of money into the market and issuing various guarantees, but the country isn't out of the woods yet, as the shock threatened to destabilize a real estate market that was already in a risky state as (like the US) South Korea was intentionally driving up interest rates in hopes that it would counteract inflation. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/10/legoland-south-korea-bond-market-crisis/ quote:Imagine the turmoil if a newly elected president of the United States announced that the U.S. government would no longer honor any outstanding Treasury bills because most of them were issued under his profligate predecessor. That’s essentially what Kim Jin-tae, the governor of South Korea’s Gangwon province, did. In doing so, Kim sparked a nationwide credit crisis that is spreading internationally, in the most farcical and unnecessary economic self-destruction this side of Liz Truss.
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 23:26 |
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I'm of the belief that the banks would literally assassinate someone like MTG before she could cause a default but I do get that we're in an era where the conservatives are so loving dumb that they can really gently caress things up because they're huffing their own farts, as the UK and SK messes indicate.
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 23:32 |
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Jaxyon posted:I'm of the belief that the banks would literally assassinate someone like MTG before she could cause a default but I do get that we're in an era where the conservatives are so loving dumb that they can really gently caress things up because they're huffing their own farts, as the UK and SK messes indicate. Is there anybody you think was assassinated by The Banks in the recent past? Like past 50 years?
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 23:34 |
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selec posted:Is there anybody you think was assassinated by The Banks in the recent past? Like past 50 years? Jay Billington Bulworth
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 23:36 |
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Jaxyon posted:Jay Billington Bulworth I don’t think anybody is going to assassinate a politician for going too far right in America anymore, is my point. They can crash this poo poo, and there’s enough of a vulture faction that would make money off of it that this too would be processed and regurgitated and eventually endorsed by democrats 20 years later.
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 23:38 |
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selec posted:I don’t think anybody is going to assassinate a politician for going too far right in America anymore, is my point. They can crash this poo poo, and there’s enough of a vulture faction that would make money off of it that this too would be processed and regurgitated and eventually endorsed by democrats 20 years later. ~The Money~ is conservative because it makes people lots of money and they don't care about the human cost. US debt default would have a huge human cost but the amount of money made from a us debt default would be tiny compared to the losses.
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# ? Jan 19, 2023 23:43 |
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Foxfire_ posted:Someone unofficially saying "we've all but figured it out (that it was Alito or Thomas)" doesn't seem at all inconsistent with a final report that goes " it's impossible to ever know" the wording of the announcement strongly suggests the justices were exempted from the investigation
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 00:09 |
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projecthalaxy posted:With the climate change and world war 3 and so forth all being helped along by the annihilation of the world economy it might be bold to assume theres such a thing as "history books" in 2073. look on the bright side, a us default could potentially crash the economy so hard that every country in the world smashes through their paris accord targets
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 00:16 |
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Am I crazy for thinking that it would have made more sense for the Dems to just vote for McCarthy on the first round of voting? I mean yeah it was hilarious to watch the Republicans look like total jackasses for a week but all it ended up doing was empowering the mega chuds. Now you got people like MTG and Gosar on a bunch of committees. If the Dems just threw in their votes for McCarthy from the very beginning the wackos wouldn't have any leverage over him. And let's face it McCarthy was the best speaker they were going to get out of the Republicans.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 00:33 |
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I don’t think the Dem base and the supposedly undertapped demographics that centrist Democrats are accused of neglecting would take too kindly to their representatives voting in a Trump-apologist like McCarthy. Those Freedom Caucus nutcases were always going to have leverage given the small GOP House majority.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 00:42 |
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Charliegrs posted:Am I crazy for thinking that it would have made more sense for the Dems to just vote for McCarthy on the first round of voting? I mean yeah it was hilarious to watch the Republicans look like total jackasses for a week but all it ended up doing was empowering the mega chuds. Now you got people like MTG and Gosar on a bunch of committees. If the Dems just threw in their votes for McCarthy from the very beginning the wackos wouldn't have any leverage over him. And let's face it McCarthy was the best speaker they were going to get out of the Republicans. they're not going to vote with him on policy(unless it's a military funding bill!) so the fight would have just happened on a different thing, and it's funnier to watch it happen on the very first order of business
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 00:51 |
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McCarthy definitely gave them a hell of a lot more than they would've had with just a slim majority though. Pelosi had that place on lock with the previous rules she put in place. McCarthy threw all that away and just effectively handed the keys to the Jonestown faction of the party. https://twitter.com/newrepublic/status/1615837745976418305
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 01:00 |
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-Blackadder- posted:McCarthy definitely gave them a hell of a lot more than they would've had with just a slim majority though. This is my point. If the Dems would have just voted for McCarthy right off the bat, these wackos wouldn't be on these committees. And now a single one of them can start a no confidence vote. I honestly really think letting the Republicans flail around with the speaker vote for a week is going to backfire on everyone considering the debt ceiling has been reached and I wouldn't put it past the chud faction to throw the whole economy off tbe cliff.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 01:05 |
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The thing is the freedom caucus isn't the most immediate obstacle. The situation with the debt limit isn't that McCarthy made too many concessions to Gaetz and now Gaetz can force a default, it's that mainstream Republicans want to play chicken. Also nobody without a terminal case of pundit brain wants their Democratic representative to vote for a Republican for speaker.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 01:06 |
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Kevin would have a 20% survival rate if he crossed the aisle to make a deal, so he let the people with the urge to kick poo poo run his office instead. Kevin is driving the bus.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 01:07 |
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Must feel awesome to have supported Kevin from the start only to see the people who were taking giant shits on the house floor be rewarded.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 01:15 |
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It's silly to vote for McCarthy just to keep slightly less nutty nut cases off committees (with no gaurantee), long term this is better as it resulted in various cracks throughout the Republican side of things; it's important to keep an eye on the big picture and Republicans aren't passing anything anyways. It's one thing if McCarthy came hat in hand to Dems and offered them concessions; voting for him without any concessions has no upside.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 01:21 |
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College Board is introducing an African American Studies AP course for high schools. This new course has been blocked from being taught in Florida under their new "Stop WOKE" law, passed last year. To enable maximum political gaming, the law is vague about what it covers: the applicable portion is presumably is that students shouldn't be made to feel guilty about their race. The decision was bravely delivered in an unsigned letter that doesn't cite any specific violation of the law. https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1616143489409892352
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 01:48 |
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They used inexplicably, did they mean to use inexorably? Although inexplicably does work if they can't find an actual law to cite.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 01:53 |
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https://dlj.law.duke.edu/article/the-debt-limit-and-the-constitution-how-the-fourteenth-amendment-forbids-fiscal-obstructionism/ The constitution literally requires that the validity of public debt not be called into question by things like a debt ceiling that is separate from the appropriations process. quote:The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. I am not sure why the administration hasn't just out and said gently caress off, we are ignoring your debt ceiling yet. Probably because it would make Manchin mad like everything else. But this is where things will end up in June IMO.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 01:57 |
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Charliegrs posted:This is my point. If the Dems would have just voted for McCarthy right off the bat, these wackos wouldn't be on these committees. And now a single one of them can start a no confidence vote. I honestly really think letting the Republicans flail around with the speaker vote for a week is going to backfire on everyone considering the debt ceiling has been reached and I wouldn't put it past the chud faction to throw the whole economy off tbe cliff. Doesn’t this actually point out that the left wing faction of the dem party would have been better off stonewalling Pelosi since the end result demonstrably shows a slim majority creates concessions? DancingMachine posted:https://dlj.law.duke.edu/article/the-debt-limit-and-the-constitution-how-the-fourteenth-amendment-forbids-fiscal-obstructionism/ Because both parties support using the debt ceiling to allow capital to rob the public. It’s not a surprise unless folks forget that Dems are, themselves, capitalists.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 01:57 |
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:Doesn’t this actually point out that the left wing faction of the dem party would have been better off stonewalling Pelosi since the end result demonstrably shows a slim majority creates concessions? They probably would have, but as has been said, Pelosi was very effective at undermining those kind of internal conflicts.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 01:59 |
virtualboyCOLOR posted:Doesn’t this actually point out that the left wing faction of the dem party would have been better off stonewalling Pelosi since the end result demonstrably shows a slim majority creates concessions? No, because the various people who wanted things wanted the government to function, and were generally able to get them through a process of negotiating compromises without destabilizing the global economy or reducing each issue to an endless series of ultimatums upon which the fulcrum of all existence teeters. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 02:06 on Jan 20, 2023 |
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 02:04 |
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DancingMachine posted:https://dlj.law.duke.edu/article/the-debt-limit-and-the-constitution-how-the-fourteenth-amendment-forbids-fiscal-obstructionism/
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 02:05 |
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:Doesn’t this actually point out that the left wing faction of the dem party would have been better off stonewalling Pelosi since the end result demonstrably shows a slim majority creates concessions? Nancy would not have had the same 20% survival rate chance that Kevin does now if a Speaker crosses the aisle to crush intra-party dissent.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 02:09 |
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cat botherer posted:This is one of those situations where it’s important to remember that the constitution is a piece of paper, and only has the power people give it. It’s like ork tech in warhammer 40k. Sure, all democracy functions only because of fragile accepted norms. In this case I am pretty sure the administration can find 5 scotus justices who are happy to sign on to this reasoning to avoid their stock portfolio melting down. virtualboyCOLOR posted:Doesn’t this actually point out that the left wing faction of the dem party would have been better off stonewalling Pelosi since the end result demonstrably shows a slim majority creates concessions? This reductive "both parties are exactly the same" is some extremely tiresome 2016 poo poo. Elected non-Republican house reps and senators span a fairly wide range of degree of sympathy for labor vs. capital, but on the balance favor labor (at least directionally as compared to the status quo if not compared to socialism) while being constrained in action by the capital sympathy of the 50th percentile most capital sympathetic rep/senator.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 02:27 |
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Charliegrs posted:This is my point. If the Dems would have just voted for McCarthy right off the bat, these wackos wouldn't be on these committees. And now a single one of them can start a no confidence vote. I honestly really think letting the Republicans flail around with the speaker vote for a week is going to backfire on everyone considering the debt ceiling has been reached and I wouldn't put it past the chud faction to throw the whole economy off tbe cliff. The committee chairs and the speaker don't actually matter if a majority of the house wants something badly enough. If those few idiots were opposed to increasing the debt ceiling on do-or-die day, a majority of the house can sign a discharge petition to force the debt ceiling increase to the floor, and then pass it. If they play games with the speaker vote, then just vote for a new speaker then proceed as described above. It can be done, this isn't a situation where a few crazy people are holding the majority of the house hostage in an inescapable way, and if only we voted for McCarthy earlier we'd be fine. Either the Dems can convince a few Republicans to not completely destroy the financial world in a way that the GOP would inevitably get roughly 100% of the blame and 100% of the political consequences..... or they can't. Rigel fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Jan 20, 2023 |
# ? Jan 20, 2023 02:51 |
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DancingMachine posted:https://dlj.law.duke.edu/article/the-debt-limit-and-the-constitution-how-the-fourteenth-amendment-forbids-fiscal-obstructionism/ The 14th Amendment says the US can't stop paying the debt it already has. The debt ceiling prevents the US from taking out new debt. So the 14th can't be a full solution. The "gently caress off, we're ignoring the debt ceiling" argument could potentially be used for taking out debt to continue to pay actual debts the US has already incurred. However, it would be unlikely to cover any other spending. "Congress passed a budget saying we have to spend $X on program Y" wouldn't qualify as public debt even under a fairly expensive definition of the term. So the 14th Amendment gambit would result in a situation where the government is only spending money on debt payments and nothing else.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 02:53 |
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The freedom caucus hasn't had success getting policies in place that affect people, and won't this term either (if we default it'll be because of mainstream Republicans like McCarthy). The representatives are okay with that because what they actually want are arcane rules changes and Fox News opportunities, but the strategy you use when you care about policy is going to be different.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 02:56 |
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Rebel Blob posted:College Board is introducing an African American Studies AP course for high schools. This new course has been blocked from being taught in Florida under their new "Stop WOKE" law, passed last year. To enable maximum political gaming, the law is vague about what it covers: the applicable portion is presumably is that students shouldn't be made to feel guilty about their race. The decision was bravely delivered in an unsigned letter that doesn't cite any specific violation of the law. I guess this isn't terribly surprising but it sure is grim that conservatives now object to all discussion of non-white people in history.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 03:05 |
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-Blackadder- posted:I can't seem to find the drat article I saw it in (it mentioned something about someone "seeing things for how they are") but the concern I keep seeing is that the GOP aren't just the dumb kid running at the brick wall this time. One problem with debt payment prioritisation schemes, and I'm going by memory here because Obama was a while ago now, is that our payment system is apparently incapable of doing that, or at least it was back then. It never occured to the people who put together our government's payment systems that we needed to design a way to pick and choose which bill to pay or not pay, it just pays legitimately owed bills when they come in. I remember that it was explained to congress that if we actually defaulted, they cant "just pay the interest, SS, and the military", but rather that payments would be haphazardly paid or not paid completely at random. GOP congressional leaders told the government to figure out a way to fix that so that they could prioritize, and when do-or-die day approached they basically told congress "nope, it was too hard, we still cant do it, sorry". Now, maybe in the years since there was some kind of project or initiative to put in the ability to choose which bills to pay, but I doubt it. edit: lol, oh hey I found a contemporary source confirming my memory, 5 days ago in the Washington Post, which devoted a hell of a lot of words analyzing payment prioritisation and what it would mean, and which bill gets paid and not paid, and in the middle of that (before going right back to their pointless story) they toss this in as a throwaway. quote:The idea poses logistical hurdles as well. In 2011 and 2013, when similar debt ceiling crises loomed, Treasury Department officials in the Obama administration said prioritizing payments was not technically possible, given the complexity of the millions of payments the federal government makes each day. "oh by the way, the plan is technically impossible and cant be done, but thats no fun, lets discuss the plan some more!" Rigel fucked around with this message at 03:18 on Jan 20, 2023 |
# ? Jan 20, 2023 03:05 |
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Rebel Blob posted:College Board is introducing an African American Studies AP course for high schools. This new course has been blocked from being taught in Florida under their new "Stop WOKE" law, passed last year. To enable maximum political gaming, the law is vague about what it covers: the applicable portion is presumably is that students shouldn't be made to feel guilty about their race. The decision was bravely delivered in an unsigned letter that doesn't cite any specific violation of the law. I would love to see an interview with the couple POCs in that thumbnail background on this recent revelation.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 03:29 |
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# ? Jun 27, 2024 02:04 |
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So, according to Reuters, George Santos allegedly competed in Drag competitions in Brazil. I swear to God, there's going to be a great movie about him at some point.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 03:29 |