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VendaGoat
Nov 1, 2005

oxsnard posted:

What do y'all wanna bet the market shits into the close?

I'm on your side in this wager.

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Pryor on Fire
May 14, 2013

they don't know all alien abduction experiences can be explained by people thinking saving private ryan was a documentary

Something wacky is about to happen in this close, flip a coin whether it's up or down though. Oil is doing some weird poo poo today, who knows.

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

Added some more BCS at 7.31.

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
making GBS threads out money into the close.

Dwight Eisenhower
Jan 24, 2006

Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.
dead bear trap bounce

2Jets
Apr 25, 2010

You're gonna get no tip
Hey guys. I read the four pillars of investing, well I skimmed it more so than actually read it, and I want to get rich like you guys.

Are the OP's recommend brokers still the best ones?

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

2Jets posted:

Are the OP's recommend brokers still the best ones?

Not really.

If you're practically broke and still want to trade for some reason, use Robin Hood.

If you have six figures to throw around or more, and intend to be an active trader, use Interactive Brokers.

If you are in between, there are many options. I like Tradeking, although they aren't as good as they used to be. Others recommend Etrade or TDAmeritrade.

Good luck.

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

Although I suppose if you want to be really smart you open an account with Vanguard, pick up a nice target date retirement fund, and live your life normally without having to deal with this bullshit!

Luigi Thirty
Apr 30, 2006

Emergency confection port.

And if you're in the market for a Visa with 2% cash back there's always Fidelity.

2Jets
Apr 25, 2010

You're gonna get no tip

Agronox posted:

Not really.

If you're practically broke and still want to trade for some reason, use Robin Hood.

If you have six figures to throw around or more, and intend to be an active trader, use Interactive Brokers.

If you are in between, there are many options. I like Tradeking, although they aren't as good as they used to be. Others recommend Etrade or TDAmeritrade.

Good luck.

Thanks. I saw Robin Hood in the AppStore but some of the reviews say they took money out of people's accounts without any explanation and they delayed some trades. I'll look into one of the other ones you mentioned.

wyoak
Feb 14, 2005

a glass case of emotion

Fallen Rib
I'd look at OptionsHouse in the middle ground bundle too, their commissions are on the lower side and I like their desktop software. Their mobile platform blows but whatever.

2Jets
Apr 25, 2010

You're gonna get no tip

Agronox posted:

Although I suppose if you want to be really smart you open an account with Vanguard, pick up a nice target date retirement fund, and live your life normally without having to deal with this bullshit!

No thanks I already donated to charity this year.

Seriously though I don't know anybody that has a positive ROI on a retirement fund besides my grandparents.

Pryor on Fire
May 14, 2013

they don't know all alien abduction experiences can be explained by people thinking saving private ryan was a documentary

2Jets posted:

No thanks I already donated to charity this year.

Seriously though I don't know anybody that has a positive ROI on a retirement fund besides my grandparents.

This is quite possibly the stupidest post I've ever read in BFC, and that's certainly not because of a dearth of bad ideas.

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

2Jets posted:

No thanks I already donated to charity this year.

Seriously though I don't know anybody that has a positive ROI on a retirement fund besides my grandparents.

request for clarification: do you only know your grandparents?

VendaGoat
Nov 1, 2005

Pryor on Fire posted:

This is quite possibly the stupidest post I've ever read in BFC, and that's certainly not because of a dearth of bad ideas.

What? Somebody quote me?

2Jets
Apr 25, 2010

You're gonna get no tip

indigi posted:

request for clarification: do you only know your grandparents?

indigi posted:

request for clarification: do you only know your grandparents?

No. If people are making money from their retirement funds they don't talk about it to me. If you are telling me that my personal experience and cherry picked data isn't normal that's great news. Are you my grandpa?

Blinky2099
May 27, 2007

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

2Jets posted:

No thanks I already donated to charity this year.

Seriously though I don't know anybody that has a positive ROI on a retirement fund besides my grandparents.

Ahahahaha

Omnicarus
Jan 16, 2006

2Jets posted:

No thanks I already donated to charity this year.

Seriously though I don't know anybody that has a positive ROI on a retirement fund besides my grandparents.

I'm saying this with your best interest in mind. You would be very well served by using a paper(Fake play monopoly money) trade before you put real money in the market. Investopedia has a great one, I'd recommend that one. Once you get an idea for what you're doing, start building up a small portfolio and use a small percentage of it as fun money to invest in SUNE or MCZ or whatever other Potemkin Village is popular that day. After you've had some success there then start thinking about getting rich and get depressed on why it isn't likely to happen.

I honestly think you'll lose quite a bit of money learning the lessons you'll learn above if you dive right in with real money.

Hufflepuff or bust!
Jan 28, 2005

I should have known better.

2Jets posted:

No. If people are making money from their retirement funds they don't talk about it to me. If you are telling me that my personal experience and cherry picked data isn't normal that's great news. Are you my grandpa?

The plural of anecdote is not data.

Rurutia
Jun 11, 2009
We've had a few pretty good bull years. If you keep hearing about how people are losing money in their retirement fund, I suggest you start listening to what they're doing and not doing that.

I think the Long Term Investment thread is a better fit for you at the moment.

Dr. Eldarion
Mar 21, 2001

Deal Dispatcher

2Jets posted:

No. If people are making money from their retirement funds they don't talk about it to me. If you are telling me that my personal experience and cherry picked data isn't normal that's great news. Are you my grandpa?

You have to be doing something really, really stupid with your retirement fund in order to lose money on it over any reasonable amount of time. Maybe the people you talked to all kept their retirement in company stock or something?

For some actual hard data, here's the performance of various Vanguard target funds, which have all made ~6%/year on average.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0695&FundIntExt=INT
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0696&FundIntExt=INT
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0699&FundIntExt=INT

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

2Jets posted:

Hey guys. I read the four pillars of investing, well I skimmed it more so than actually read it

Or maybe more just sort of ignored it? Seriously that book is all about long-term index fund investing for retirement.

Also, yeah, you are much more likely to experience long-term negative returns by actively investing in handpicked stocks than you are by investing in a diversified selection of domestic and international passively managed low-cost index stock funds plus a modest amount of a low-cost passively managed index bond fund. Vanguard can set you up good.

Individual stock investing is for A) gamblers and B) highly-educated day traders who are making a living by having convinced themselves they're not actually gambling and C) Warren Buffet.

crazypeltast52
May 5, 2010



Even most of this thread keeps our non-fun money in diversified mutual funds because we know we are gambling here.

greasyhands
Oct 28, 2006

Best quality posts,
freshly delivered
This market is loving ludicrous

coffeetable
Feb 5, 2006

TELL ME AGAIN HOW GREAT BRITAIN WOULD BE IF IT WAS RULED BY THE MERCILESS JACKBOOT OF PRINCE CHARLES

YES I DO TALK TO PLANTS ACTUALLY

2Jets posted:

No thanks I already donated to charity this year.

Seriously though I don't know anybody that has a positive ROI on a retirement fund besides my grandparents.

coffeetable posted:

I've been thinking about how best to convince retail investors that they might be bad even if they've made money. Here's a simple baseline:



I was tempted to use something better-diversified than the S&P500, but this is the data I had to hand.

If you're above the line, congratulations on not being terrible!

how to make money on the stock market:
  • invest in a low-fee index fund
  • go do something else for 20 years

e: not to say there aren't plenty of ways to beat the market. but if you can beat the market reliably, why are you doing it with your own money

coffeetable fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Jun 29, 2016

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
But I want to make 70% return in a week not 10 friging years.

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos

Elephanthead posted:

But I want to make 70% return in a week not 10 friging years.

Just invest your money for your grand children and live off the money in the trust invested by your grandparents like a normal person.

VendaGoat
Nov 1, 2005

Elephanthead posted:

But I want to make 70% return in a week not 10 friging years.

Invest in a gun, bullets, ski mask and a fast car.

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

Elephanthead posted:

But I want to make 70% return in a week not 10 friging years.

this, but unironically. Like, for real, I've been wondering if I could reliably generate a hundred bucks a month to basically erase my phone and/or car insurance payments. Is that a pipe dream unless I have like 20k in there?

2Jets
Apr 25, 2010

You're gonna get no tip
So it turns out I am a Huge Idiot. That T Row Price fund i bought back in 2008 Is actually not doing so badly anymore. Feels good to be stupid sometimes. Personal Rate of Return 4.16%. I think I can do better though. I got an ETrade account, but the stupid bank is making me wait 48 hours.

edit. I have been tossing the statements since it had lost more than half its initial value.

2Jets fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Jun 29, 2016

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?
You mean to tell me that a fund you bought on the eve of the worst financial crash in at least half a century lost value?! That's hosed up.

VendaGoat
Nov 1, 2005
Today's trading thesis at the NYSE; Brexit Happened, So What?

Dr. Fraiser Chain
May 18, 2004

Redlining my shit posting machine


:Kramer I'm out Gif:

oxsnard
Oct 8, 2003
This market makes no sense. Methodically climbing up back to all time highs. Its like everyone is so used to freakouts and v shaped recoveries that we're just programmed to buy every dip

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

Well, the Brexit panic was a little irrational in and of itself. Makes little sense for US markets to have collapsed 5% overnight (as they did before recovering).

I'd say the way things like BCS and LYG fell apart is a gigantic buying opportunity, too, but the jury is still out on that one.

oxsnard
Oct 8, 2003
That would be an rational explanation if the market didn't ramp up like crazy in expectation for Brexit to fail

Solice Kirsk
Jun 1, 2004

.
This has been a good couple weeks for me. I'm trying to decide what to do with my Barclay's stock. Most of me was just buying it for a quick flip in a couple of months, but now I'm starting to think I could hold it for a couple years after all the Brexit stuff is over and done with and just cross my fingers they come out ok and bounce back like Chase did in the US.

wyoak
Feb 14, 2005

a glass case of emotion

Fallen Rib
Seems like everyone is assuming Brexit won't actually happen, or it'll happen in some way where they're not-EU in name only. This might not be a solid assumption.

Triglav
Jun 2, 2007

IT IS HARAAM TO SEND SMILEY FACES THROUGH THE INTERNET

Leperflesh posted:

Individual stock investing is for A) gamblers and B) highly-educated day traders who are making a living by having convinced themselves they're not actually gambling and C) Warren Buffet.

This game has no limit, allows card counting, and you can enter and exit whenever you want :kiddo:

I think most people fail at day trading because they try scalping market noise. Personally my goal is to place no more than a few trades a day in any given product, looking for the daily trend and continuation overnight. That also requires less constant attention, particularly once you can raise your stop up above entry.

But yeah, the longer term your trading, the easier it is. I also find it easier to think in ticks and percents, not dollars. If my chart displays dollar values, I find I'm too protective of gains and get out too early.

indigi posted:

this, but unironically. Like, for real, I've been wondering if I could reliably generate a hundred bucks a month to basically erase my phone and/or car insurance payments. Is that a pipe dream unless I have like 20k in there?

That's like four ticks of ZB, or eight of ZN, two fairly slow-moving markets. It's eight ticks in ES, or ten in CL. If you want something more trending, look into ags like ZC or ZM. If you want something with more defined risk, use options. If you want something even more riskless, short VXX and other similarly broken ETPs.

oxsnard posted:

This market makes no sense. Methodically climbing up back to all time highs. Its like everyone is so used to freakouts and v shaped recoveries that we're just programmed to buy every dip

The dip was just the undoing of last week's pricing in of a remain. All the press about how it'll be a multi-year ordeal and pro-Brexit politicians are hesitant to do anything resulted in a balanced auction on Monday. The Globex chart looks technically correct, it's even in a nice little Elliott wave package. The cash chart filled the gap Tuesday and rallied off short covering and subsequent buying late yesterday and today. Such is market psychology. It's helped that the FTSE has paired its losses, minus forex.

After all the news this weekend, I was looking for the rally on Monday, but it never happened. I stayed short but bought a couple weekly calls after the close. During the Asian session that night I covered and flipped long and have been selling my weeklies since, as they're more of a Texas hedge at this point. I'm looking to dump the last of them at 2070 or tonight if the Asian session goes poorly. I'm leaning minor-trend bearish now that we've fulfilled the pattern and retraced 50%, but I'm not going to flip short until price agrees. I'm eying next week's puts, though. I'm probably going to buy a couple just for fun if we continue climbing tomorrow or if a freak crash occurs tonight during the Asian session. If Asia goes poorly for whatever reason, I'm sure Europe will risk off again too, which should drag on us again.

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coffeetable
Feb 5, 2006

TELL ME AGAIN HOW GREAT BRITAIN WOULD BE IF IT WAS RULED BY THE MERCILESS JACKBOOT OF PRINCE CHARLES

YES I DO TALK TO PLANTS ACTUALLY

indigi posted:

this, but unironically. Like, for real, I've been wondering if I could reliably generate a hundred bucks a month to basically erase my phone and/or car insurance payments. Is that a pipe dream unless I have like 20k in there?
if $100/month of bills are a concern for you, you should not be gambling on the stock market

jesus christ

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