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Egypt is only going to become more unstable that it already is, his supporters will call murder if(and when...) he is deposed and are very unlikely to back down. The alternatives are the military, a hodgepodge of former NDP supporter and secular liberals and Salafists. None of them will actually address the very real economic problems of Egypt, since all 4 sides embrace some form of neo-liberal capitalism. It is going to be an endless Merry-go around of coups, counter-coups and revolutions. That said the West probably prefers the more secular leaning military/NDPers so thats who is going to ultimately triumph.
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:17 |
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# ? May 23, 2024 16:52 |
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Yeah it's more like getting soldiers on the side of the revolution than a coup in the mode of Pinochet or any other thing classically understood as a coup.
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:17 |
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az jan jananam posted:One of President Morsi's final quotes will seriously be "it's a trap"... He kind of set the trap for himself.
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:17 |
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Sacrifice is not sacrificing some for others, when we declare Jihad we declare it against external enemies of the nation, not against our own people. If our legitimacy will end up costing my blood then I accept that. Don't be tricked. Don't fall into the trap. I am just making it clear for you. We have many challenges ahead of us. We can's take the bait to go against legitimacy in actions that would be considered illegal under my legitimacy, taking the country in dark uncertain directions. Any and all change will happen within the scope of my legitimacy, and my legitimacy only. Some people and institutions are not important when considering the future of our country, our children, our police, our army. Know that actions are measured, and god only wants what's good for Egypt. I know this of god, and I know this of you, and of the world around us. We are the people of Egypt and we should be one body, one revolution.
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:18 |
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Ardennes posted:The alternatives are the military, a hodgepodge of former NDP supporter and secular liberals and Salafists. None of them will actually address the very real economic problems of Egypt, since all 4 sides embrace some form of neo-liberal capitalism. Sabahi is the only semi-hope but as others have mentioned won't have much control to implement real change. Edit: vvv since when? Any time "our guy" has gotten power via a coup, aid increased dramatically. Again, see Chile. OwlBot 2000 fucked around with this message at 23:21 on Jul 2, 2013 |
# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:19 |
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In the case of a "military coup" the US apparently has certain automatic triggers in place that will decrease foreign aid. So obviously the Egyptian military will simply help execute a minor political realignment.
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:19 |
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Addressing MB/islamist protesters: DO NOT RETREAT! DO NOT FALL BACK! DO NOT GO INTO A DARK TUNNEL! DO NOT ALLOW ONE SECTION OF THE POPULACE TO DICTATE FOR THE REST!
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:20 |
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Ham posted:Sacrifice is not sacrificing some for others, when we declare Jihad we declare it against external enemies of the nation, not against our own people. If our legitimacy will end up costing my blood then I accept that. Don't be tricked. Don't fall into the trap. I am just making it clear for you. We have many challenges ahead of us. We can's take the bait to go against legitimacy in actions that would be considered illegal under my legitimacy, taking the country in dark uncertain directions. Where are people watching this? This is a man unhinged.
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:21 |
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It's done. Morsi will likely be dead within the day. The Egyptian people will kill their first elected president.
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:21 |
Nilbop posted:Where are people watching this? This is a man unhinged. It's done, it was all over Arab media. I don't know if any English media were broadcasting it.
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:23 |
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az jan jananam posted:It's done, it was all over Arab media. I don't know if any English media were broadcasting it. Al Jazeera English was broadcasting it live with someone translating it to english
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:24 |
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BM, or anyone else, do you have any good Egypt specific twitters to follow for news
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:26 |
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Man, that dude has lost it.
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:31 |
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Amused to Death posted:BM, or anyone else, do you have any good Egypt specific twitters to follow for news Arabist Sarahcarr dooolism aymanm davidkenner bencnn nervana_1 egyptocracy madamasr bradleyhope rebeleconomy bassem_sabry evanchill beltrew sherinet leloveluck Probably a decent start
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:34 |
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Eagerly awaiting an auto tuned version of that speech set to "2 legit 2 quit." Edit: whoa, did I just inspire the new thread title or did that happen as I was posting? pantslesswithwolves fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Jul 2, 2013 |
# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:45 |
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The Egyptian military has some tough decisions to make.
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# ? Jul 2, 2013 23:52 |
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Phlegmish posted:The sharp distinction that is being made between 'culture' and 'religion' doesn't make much sense. A nation's culture and the worldview of its inhabitants are at least partly shaped by its traditional religious beliefs, even if it's currently a secular society - the same way Protestantism left its mark on modern Scandinavia. Bleh. I don't care what you say about Islam, As long as you support it with evidence! If you're going to make a claim like this you drat well better have something to back it up. If you made it without seeing the correlation first, why are you so certain of it's truth? If you're just going to sit back and patiently explain how religion and culture are interrelated and you can't separate islam from arab patriarchy, well that's fine. I'm going to call you a racist moron, though, and unlike your assertions mine will have plenty of evidence to back them up. Really I wouldn't be surprised if I'm completely wrong and there are actual correlations between professed Islamic religiosity and conservative attitudes towards women. Just show them to me, cross check attitudes between cultures and look for confounding variables. Ask yourself where did certain beliefs of yours come from, and are they sources you still trust. Xandu posted:Egypt isn't really an oil-based economy like the Gulf. Michael Ross posted:The region’s oil wealth has also had an indirect influence on women in some of the oilpoor states. Even though Yemen, Egypt, and Jordan have little or no oil, they have fewer women in the labor force [figure 5] and parliament [figure 6] than we might expect. These anomalies may be partly the result of labor remittances: from the 1970s to the 1990s, these countries were the largest exporters of labor to the oil-rich countries of the Persian Gulf, and received large remittances from them in turn. Between 1974 and 1982, official remittances made up between 22 and 69 percent of Yemen’s GDP, between 10 and 31 percent of Jordan’s GDP, and between 3 and 13 percent of Egypt’s GDP; unofficial remittances were probably much larger [Choucri 1986]. Remittances tend to have the same effects as oil on the supply of female labor, by raising unearned household income; they may also have a similar effect on the demand for female labor by raising the exchange rate and making low-wage, export-oriented manufacturing uncompetitive. Yemen is farther below the trend lines for female labor and female representation than any other Mideast country; it has also received more remittances (as a fraction of GDP) than any other country. Lawman 0 posted:Actually come to think of it the other north african arab states seem rather progressive compared to Egypt. Not at all! quote:Oil production helps explain much of this intra-regional variation. Figures 4, 5, and 6 are scatterplots that show the relationship between oil rents per capita (averaged over 1993-2002) and the first year of female suffrage, female (nonagricultural) labor force participation, and the fraction of parliamentary seats held by women, for each state in the region. In general, the states that are richest in oil (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Oman) have been the most reluctant to grant female suffrage, have the fewest women in their parliaments, and have the fewest women in their nonagricultural workforce. States with little or no oil (Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, Syria, Djibouti) were the first to grant female suffrage and tend to have more women in parliament and the workplace.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 00:31 |
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I feel like Ross is moving the goalposts a bit here!
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 00:35 |
Ham posted:It's done. Morsi will likely be dead within the day. I'm waiting for the inevitable "I AM Egypt!" cry right before the end.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 00:36 |
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Squalid posted:Bleh. I don't care what you say about Islam, As long as you support it with evidence! If you're going to make a claim like this you drat well better have something to back it up. If you made it without seeing the correlation first, why are you so certain of it's truth? If you're just going to sit back and patiently explain how religion and culture are interrelated and you can't separate islam from arab patriarchy, well that's fine. I'm going to call you a racist moron, though, and unlike your assertions mine will have plenty of evidence to back them up. Attempting to base an argument about sexual violence on a single study with rather dubious arguments is just as bad. The reason people who could show you differently aren't doing so is because this isn't the place for it. Also so what if you've identified that particular issue as the cause doesn't make the consequences for women any different. This thread is more TVIV then anything else. Sri.Theo fucked around with this message at 00:44 on Jul 3, 2013 |
# ? Jul 3, 2013 00:40 |
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A video showing the shooting of a cop, fighting on behalf of the protesters, apparently by the Brotherhood. I never thought I'd hear automatic weapon fire in the streets of motherfucking Cairo. http://youtu.be/LAI6ORPtEQc
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:07 |
suboptimal posted:A video showing the shooting of a cop, fighting on behalf of the protesters, apparently by the Brotherhood. I never thought I'd hear automatic weapon fire in the streets of motherfucking Cairo. The military is sending tanks there because of the violence. A security source said that dozens had been wounded in Giza.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:16 |
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suboptimal posted:A video showing the shooting of a cop, fighting on behalf of the protesters, apparently by the Brotherhood. I never thought I'd hear automatic weapon fire in the streets of motherfucking Cairo. Al-Jazeera reporting that there's 7 dead so far with dozens wounded, some critically. The good news is that the governments legitimacy is intact.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:17 |
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Dozens of news outlets are running the line "Among figures being considered as an interim head of state was the new president of the constitutional court, Adli Mansour." I can't find anything relevant on him other than articles about his appointment to president of the constitutional court and the current protests. Also: ABC News (Australia) posted:Brotherhood spokeswoman Alla Mustafa is calling on patriotic Egyptians to defend their new-found democracy. This seems like the brotherhood are just fanning the flames, where are they trying to take this?
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:28 |
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Cirofren posted:Also: They're jealous of the lifestyle of the Syrians.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:31 |
Volkerball posted:The good news is that the governments legitimacy is intact. There is truth to what Morsi is saying when he says that his government is legitimate, and that legitimacy is a key issue here. He was elected by a majority of Egyptians in the fairest elections that Egypt has had in decades; the fact that he is grossly incompetent doesn't change that. If this coup happens it sets a rather poor precedent where Islamists get the message that gaining and retaining power through democratic institutions isn't actually a viable option, and that it might be better to simply return to the guerrilla/terrorism campaign of the 80s/90s. Which is that I bet they'll do if the military/dakhiliyya embark on a Brotherhood repression campaign.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:31 |
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Based on tonight's events and Morsi's speech, I don't see a way for his presidency to survive. He was all but daring the army to take a swing at him and I get the feeling that if the previous "road map" had Morsi staying as president until early elections or as the figurehead of a caretaker government, the new one is going to see him left on the side of the road, probably with a mob of protesters after his head.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:32 |
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Zeroisanumber posted:Crosspost from the pictures thread. What it looks like to be in the helicopter near Tahrir Square that's getting tagged by all of those laser lights. Man, from the ground that thing looks like an alien spaceship: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAwAnCj5PQw
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:33 |
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I have a sinking feeling this isn't going to be as bloodless as the last go-around. I know that the original revolution was pretty violent, but camel charges are gonna be replaced by gunshots this time. I hope I'm wrong.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:34 |
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VikingSkull posted:I have a sinking feeling this isn't going to be as bloodless as the last go-around. I know that the original revolution was pretty violent, but camel charges are gonna be replaced by gunshots this time. The 2011 revolution wasn't really that bloodless, according to wikipedia over 800 people died.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:37 |
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there was a lot of movement to and from giza from the north. all kinds of things, helicopters, police, other stuff. but it seems to have stopped now.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:37 |
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az jan jananam posted:There is truth to what Morsi is saying when he says that his government is legitimate, and that legitimacy is a key issue here. He was elected by a majority of Egyptians in the fairest elections that Egypt has had in decades; the fact that he is grossly incompetent doesn't change that. If this coup happens it sets a rather poor precedent where Islamists get the message that gaining and retaining power through democratic institutions isn't actually a viable option, and that it might be better to simply return to the guerrilla/terrorism campaign of the 80s/90s. Which is that I bet they'll do if the military/dakhiliyya embark on a Brotherhood repression campaign.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:37 |
If it is going to be bloody the Brotherhood is going to be on the receiving end, not the protesters; the interior ministry and the army both have guns pointed at them. Which is why Brothers are getting armed to protect themselves where possible.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:37 |
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az jan jananam posted:If it is going to be bloody the Brotherhood is going to be on the receiving end, not the protesters. Which is why they're getting armed to protect themselves where possible. Some dude in Tahrir got accused of being in the MB tonight (he wasn't) and was brutally attacked.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:38 |
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Dr. Tough posted:The 2011 revolution wasn't really that bloodless, according to wikipedia over 800 people died. Well yeah, that's why I said I know it was pretty violent. Compared to the rest of the nations embroiled in this? Not so much. 800 dead in the overthrow of an autocratic dictator is pretty good, actually.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:40 |
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az jan jananam posted:If it is going to be bloody the Brotherhood is going to be on the receiving end, not the protesters. Which is why they're getting armed to protect themselves where possible. Think of all of those Libyan weapons seized near Marsa Matrouh as they were en route to Sinai, Upper Egypt, etc. and then think of the reports earlier in the week of police arresting a bus full of armed Islamists heading to Cairo just before the June 30 protests, or Khairat al-Shater's bodyguards getting arrested for possessing illegal weapons.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 01:40 |
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az jan jananam posted:There is truth to what Morsi is saying when he says that his government is legitimate, and that legitimacy is a key issue here. He was elected by a majority of Egyptians in the fairest elections that Egypt has had in decades; the fact that he is grossly incompetent doesn't change that. If this coup happens it sets a rather poor precedent where Islamists get the message that gaining and retaining power through democratic institutions isn't actually a viable option, and that it might be better to simply return to the guerrilla/terrorism campaign of the 80s/90s. Which is that I bet they'll do if the military/dakhiliyya embark on a Brotherhood repression campaign. I think the big screw up was having 4 year term limits right off the bat. Egypt has changed politically almost as much from Morsi's election to today as it did from the protests until the Mubarak government collapsed. I don't think Egypt was stable enough to be able to accept 4 years of Morsi's rule for its initial term. Hell, I don't know if anyone could have adapted to the changing desires of the Egyptian people over this time. I'd also argue that Morsi misrepresented himself during the electoral process. He spoke of freedom from tyranny and equality, then tried to grant himself sweeping power in the face of massive protests. He spoke of fairness regardless of religious belief, then began implementing religious policies that were unfair to secular Egyptians. And all along, he has shown an arrogant refusal to engage opposition parties to try and reach common ground. He's bad for Egypt in these crucial stages of their fledgling democracy, and I can certainly sympathize with those who think it's time for a new election. I'm not sure I'd call it a real black eye for Egypt yet, but time will tell. I agree that this could have a very bad effect re: Islamism, but it's not like militants haven't already been trying to subvert the democratic process in Egypt, even with Morsi in power.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 02:00 |
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az jan jananam posted:There is truth to what Morsi is saying when he says that his government is legitimate, and that legitimacy is a key issue here. He was elected by a majority of Egyptians in the fairest elections that Egypt has had in decades; the fact that he is grossly incompetent doesn't change that. If this coup happens it sets a rather poor precedent where Islamists get the message that gaining and retaining power through democratic institutions isn't actually a viable option, and that it might be better to simply return to the guerrilla/terrorism campaign of the 80s/90s. Which is that I bet they'll do if the military/dakhiliyya embark on a Brotherhood repression campaign. Which is why the obvious way out for the brotherhood is through compromise with the protests and Morsi calling for immediate presidential elections. Which is probably still what they're aiming for, but using the time to raise the stakes against the military to get a more favorable negotiation position. However, this is only plausible if you assume the MB is rational. The way they handled the constitution, opposition parties, the Salafist Nour party and (very weak) government composition implies that their hubris/arrogance reigns supreme over their rationality. If they truly believe they can get away with turning it into a contained civil war that the US will just sit idly by and watch then they're done for.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 02:02 |
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Honestly, though, if elections are held within two months, won't the Brotherhood still be in a pretty good position? They had a fairly commanding lead last time.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 02:26 |
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# ? May 23, 2024 16:52 |
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TheBalor posted:Honestly, though, if elections are held within two months, won't the Brotherhood still be in a pretty good position? They had a fairly commanding lead last time. Not if they're bulldozed into a mass grave on the outskirts of Cairo.
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# ? Jul 3, 2013 02:32 |