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Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Egypt is only going to become more unstable that it already is, his supporters will call murder if(and when...) he is deposed and are very unlikely to back down.

The alternatives are the military, a hodgepodge of former NDP supporter and secular liberals and Salafists. None of them will actually address the very real economic problems of Egypt, since all 4 sides embrace some form of neo-liberal capitalism. It is going to be an endless Merry-go around of coups, counter-coups and revolutions.

That said the West probably prefers the more secular leaning military/NDPers so thats who is going to ultimately triumph.

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OwlBot 2000
Jun 1, 2009
Yeah it's more like getting soldiers on the side of the revolution than a coup in the mode of Pinochet or any other thing classically understood as a coup.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

az jan jananam posted:

One of President Morsi's final quotes will seriously be "it's a trap"...

He kind of set the trap for himself.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
Sacrifice is not sacrificing some for others, when we declare Jihad we declare it against external enemies of the nation, not against our own people. If our legitimacy will end up costing my blood then I accept that. Don't be tricked. Don't fall into the trap. I am just making it clear for you. We have many challenges ahead of us. We can's take the bait to go against legitimacy in actions that would be considered illegal under my legitimacy, taking the country in dark uncertain directions.

Any and all change will happen within the scope of my legitimacy, and my legitimacy only.

Some people and institutions are not important when considering the future of our country, our children, our police, our army.

Know that actions are measured, and god only wants what's good for Egypt. I know this of god, and I know this of you, and of the world around us. We are the people of Egypt and we should be one body, one revolution.

OwlBot 2000
Jun 1, 2009

Ardennes posted:

The alternatives are the military, a hodgepodge of former NDP supporter and secular liberals and Salafists. None of them will actually address the very real economic problems of Egypt, since all 4 sides embrace some form of neo-liberal capitalism.

Sabahi is the only semi-hope but as others have mentioned won't have much control to implement real change.

Edit: vvv since when? Any time "our guy" has gotten power via a coup, aid increased dramatically. Again, see Chile.

OwlBot 2000 fucked around with this message at 23:21 on Jul 2, 2013

Malcolm
May 11, 2008
In the case of a "military coup" the US apparently has certain automatic triggers in place that will decrease foreign aid. So obviously the Egyptian military will simply help execute a minor political realignment. :airquote:

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
Addressing MB/islamist protesters: DO NOT RETREAT! DO NOT FALL BACK! DO NOT GO INTO A DARK TUNNEL! DO NOT ALLOW ONE SECTION OF THE POPULACE TO DICTATE FOR THE REST!

Nilbop
Jun 5, 2004

Looks like someone forgot his hardhat...

Ham posted:

Sacrifice is not sacrificing some for others, when we declare Jihad we declare it against external enemies of the nation, not against our own people. If our legitimacy will end up costing my blood then I accept that. Don't be tricked. Don't fall into the trap. I am just making it clear for you. We have many challenges ahead of us. We can's take the bait to go against legitimacy in actions that would be considered illegal under my legitimacy, taking the country in dark uncertain directions.

Any and all change will happen within the scope of my legitimacy, and my legitimacy only.

Some people and institutions are not important when considering the future of our country, our children, our police, our army.

Know that actions are measured, and god only wants what's good for Egypt. I know this of god, and I know this of you, and of the world around us. We are the people of Egypt and we should be one body, one revolution.

Where are people watching this? This is a man unhinged.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
It's done. Morsi will likely be dead within the day.

The Egyptian people will kill their first elected president.

az jan jananam
Sep 6, 2011
HI, I'M HARDCORE SAX HERE TO DROP A NICE JUICY TURD OF A POST FROM UP ON HIGH

Nilbop posted:

Where are people watching this? This is a man unhinged.

It's done, it was all over Arab media. I don't know if any English media were broadcasting it.

Patterson
Apr 9, 2011

az jan jananam posted:

It's done, it was all over Arab media. I don't know if any English media were broadcasting it.

Al Jazeera English was broadcasting it live with someone translating it to english

Amused to Death
Aug 10, 2009

google "The Night Witches", and prepare for :stare:
BM, or anyone else, do you have any good Egypt specific twitters to follow for news

Seizure Meat
Jul 23, 2008

by Smythe
Man, that dude has lost it.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Amused to Death posted:

BM, or anyone else, do you have any good Egypt specific twitters to follow for news

Arabist
Sarahcarr
dooolism
aymanm
davidkenner
bencnn
nervana_1
egyptocracy
madamasr
bradleyhope
rebeleconomy
bassem_sabry
evanchill
beltrew
sherinet
leloveluck

Probably a decent start

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Eagerly awaiting an auto tuned version of that speech set to "2 legit 2 quit."

Edit: whoa, did I just inspire the new thread title or did that happen as I was posting?

pantslesswithwolves fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Jul 2, 2013

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
The Egyptian military has some tough decisions to make.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Phlegmish posted:

The sharp distinction that is being made between 'culture' and 'religion' doesn't make much sense. A nation's culture and the worldview of its inhabitants are at least partly shaped by its traditional religious beliefs, even if it's currently a secular society - the same way Protestantism left its mark on modern Scandinavia.

No, Islam doesn't directly lead to misogyny for the simple reason that it doesn't have an independent existence as an ultimate cause or as a monolithic concept, it is something that exists only in specific societies and in specific people's heads as a collection of rituals, attitudes and beliefs. Different societies will interpret and adapt it in different ways, which is why there's such a huge difference between Albania and Afghanistan. You're right that it's a multi-dimensional phenomenon.
At the same time, the form that Islam does take in much of the muslim world definitely shows a pronounced misogynistic streak, and particularly among devout muslims. To return to your example, if Albania is relatively liberal by muslim standards, it's because it's a mostly secular society where religion isn't seen as particularly important to begin with. Taking all of this into consideration, I don't think there's anything wrong with pointing that there's a correlation between misogyny and the intensity of people's Islamic beliefs.

Bleh. I don't care what you say about Islam, As long as you support it with evidence! If you're going to make a claim like this you drat well better have something to back it up. If you made it without seeing the correlation first, why are you so certain of it's truth? If you're just going to sit back and patiently explain how religion and culture are interrelated and you can't separate islam from arab patriarchy, well that's fine. I'm going to call you a racist moron, though, and unlike your assertions mine will have plenty of evidence to back them up.

Really I wouldn't be surprised if I'm completely wrong and there are actual correlations between professed Islamic religiosity and conservative attitudes towards women. Just show them to me, cross check attitudes between cultures and look for confounding variables. Ask yourself where did certain beliefs of yours come from, and are they sources you still trust.

Xandu posted:

Egypt isn't really an oil-based economy like the Gulf.

:eng101:

Michael Ross posted:

The region’s oil wealth has also had an indirect influence on women in some of the oilpoor states. Even though Yemen, Egypt, and Jordan have little or no oil, they have fewer women in the labor force [figure 5] and parliament [figure 6] than we might expect. These anomalies may be partly the result of labor remittances: from the 1970s to the 1990s, these countries were the largest exporters of labor to the oil-rich countries of the Persian Gulf, and received large remittances from them in turn. Between 1974 and 1982, official remittances made up between 22 and 69 percent of Yemen’s GDP, between 10 and 31 percent of Jordan’s GDP, and between 3 and 13 percent of Egypt’s GDP; unofficial remittances were probably much larger [Choucri 1986]. Remittances tend to have the same effects as oil on the supply of female labor, by raising unearned household income; they may also have a similar effect on the demand for female labor by raising the exchange rate and making low-wage, export-oriented manufacturing uncompetitive. Yemen is farther below the trend lines for female labor and female representation than any other Mideast country; it has also received more remittances (as a fraction of GDP) than any other country.


Lawman 0 posted:

Actually come to think of it the other north african arab states seem rather progressive compared to Egypt.
Am I wrong?

Not at all!

quote:

Oil production helps explain much of this intra-regional variation. Figures 4, 5, and 6 are scatterplots that show the relationship between oil rents per capita (averaged over 1993-2002) and the first year of female suffrage, female (nonagricultural) labor force participation, and the fraction of parliamentary seats held by women, for each state in the region. In general, the states that are richest in oil (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Oman) have been the most reluctant to grant female suffrage, have the fewest women in their parliaments, and have the fewest women in their nonagricultural workforce. States with little or no oil (Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, Syria, Djibouti) were the first to grant female suffrage and tend to have more women in parliament and the workplace.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

I feel like Ross is moving the goalposts a bit here!

cochise
Sep 11, 2011


Ham posted:

It's done. Morsi will likely be dead within the day.

The Egyptian people will kill their first elected president.

I'm waiting for the inevitable "I AM Egypt!" cry right before the end.

Sri.Theo
Apr 16, 2008

Squalid posted:

Bleh. I don't care what you say about Islam, As long as you support it with evidence! If you're going to make a claim like this you drat well better have something to back it up. If you made it without seeing the correlation first, why are you so certain of it's truth? If you're just going to sit back and patiently explain how religion and culture are interrelated and you can't separate islam from arab patriarchy, well that's fine. I'm going to call you a racist moron, though, and unlike your assertions mine will have plenty of evidence to back them up.

Really I wouldn't be surprised if I'm completely wrong and there are actual correlations between professed Islamic religiosity and conservative attitudes towards women. Just show them to me, cross check attitudes between cultures and look for confounding variables. Ask yourself where did certain beliefs of yours come from, and are they sources you still trust.


:eng101:



Not at all!

Attempting to base an argument about sexual violence on a single study with rather dubious arguments is just as bad. The reason people who could show you differently aren't doing so is because this isn't the place for it. Also so what if you've identified that particular issue as the cause doesn't make the consequences for women any different.

This thread is more TVIV then anything else.

Sri.Theo fucked around with this message at 00:44 on Jul 3, 2013

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

A video showing the shooting of a cop, fighting on behalf of the protesters, apparently by the Brotherhood. I never thought I'd hear automatic weapon fire in the streets of motherfucking Cairo.

http://youtu.be/LAI6ORPtEQc

az jan jananam
Sep 6, 2011
HI, I'M HARDCORE SAX HERE TO DROP A NICE JUICY TURD OF A POST FROM UP ON HIGH

suboptimal posted:

A video showing the shooting of a cop, fighting on behalf of the protesters, apparently by the Brotherhood. I never thought I'd hear automatic weapon fire in the streets of motherfucking Cairo.

http://youtu.be/LAI6ORPtEQc

The military is sending tanks there because of the violence. A security source said that dozens had been wounded in Giza.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

suboptimal posted:

A video showing the shooting of a cop, fighting on behalf of the protesters, apparently by the Brotherhood. I never thought I'd hear automatic weapon fire in the streets of motherfucking Cairo.

http://youtu.be/LAI6ORPtEQc

Al-Jazeera reporting that there's 7 dead so far with dozens wounded, some critically. The good news is that the governments legitimacy is intact. :thumbsup:

Cirofren
Jun 13, 2005


Pillbug
Dozens of news outlets are running the line "Among figures being considered as an interim head of state was the new president of the constitutional court, Adli Mansour."

I can't find anything relevant on him other than articles about his appointment to president of the constitutional court and the current protests.

Also:

ABC News (Australia) posted:

Brotherhood spokeswoman Alla Mustafa is calling on patriotic Egyptians to defend their new-found democracy.

"Today all Egyptians patriotic will defend this people's will and the democracy that they were all dreaming to have from the revolution," he said.

This seems like the brotherhood are just fanning the flames, where are they trying to take this?

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Cirofren posted:

Also:


This seems like the brotherhood are just fanning the flames, where are they trying to take this?

They're jealous of the lifestyle of the Syrians.

az jan jananam
Sep 6, 2011
HI, I'M HARDCORE SAX HERE TO DROP A NICE JUICY TURD OF A POST FROM UP ON HIGH

Volkerball posted:

The good news is that the governments legitimacy is intact.

There is truth to what Morsi is saying when he says that his government is legitimate, and that legitimacy is a key issue here. He was elected by a majority of Egyptians in the fairest elections that Egypt has had in decades; the fact that he is grossly incompetent doesn't change that. If this coup happens it sets a rather poor precedent where Islamists get the message that gaining and retaining power through democratic institutions isn't actually a viable option, and that it might be better to simply return to the guerrilla/terrorism campaign of the 80s/90s. Which is that I bet they'll do if the military/dakhiliyya embark on a Brotherhood repression campaign.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Based on tonight's events and Morsi's speech, I don't see a way for his presidency to survive. He was all but daring the army to take a swing at him and I get the feeling that if the previous "road map" had Morsi staying as president until early elections or as the figurehead of a caretaker government, the new one is going to see him left on the side of the road, probably with a mob of protesters after his head.

Coriolis
Oct 23, 2005

Zeroisanumber posted:

Crosspost from the pictures thread. What it looks like to be in the helicopter near Tahrir Square that's getting tagged by all of those laser lights.

:pcgaming: :pcgaming:

Man, from the ground that thing looks like an alien spaceship:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAwAnCj5PQw

Seizure Meat
Jul 23, 2008

by Smythe
I have a sinking feeling this isn't going to be as bloodless as the last go-around. I know that the original revolution was pretty violent, but camel charges are gonna be replaced by gunshots this time.

I hope I'm wrong.

Dr. Tough
Oct 22, 2007

VikingSkull posted:

I have a sinking feeling this isn't going to be as bloodless as the last go-around. I know that the original revolution was pretty violent, but camel charges are gonna be replaced by gunshots this time.

I hope I'm wrong.

The 2011 revolution wasn't really that bloodless, according to wikipedia over 800 people died.

Svartvit
Jun 18, 2005

al-Qabila samaa Bahth
there was a lot of movement to and from giza from the north. all kinds of things, helicopters, police, other stuff. but it seems to have stopped now.

Mans
Sep 14, 2011

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

az jan jananam posted:

There is truth to what Morsi is saying when he says that his government is legitimate, and that legitimacy is a key issue here. He was elected by a majority of Egyptians in the fairest elections that Egypt has had in decades; the fact that he is grossly incompetent doesn't change that. If this coup happens it sets a rather poor precedent where Islamists get the message that gaining and retaining power through democratic institutions isn't actually a viable option, and that it might be better to simply return to the guerrilla/terrorism campaign of the 80s/90s. Which is that I bet they'll do if the military/dakhiliyya embark on a Brotherhood repression campaign.
It's too late for a referendum to make new elections isn't it?

az jan jananam
Sep 6, 2011
HI, I'M HARDCORE SAX HERE TO DROP A NICE JUICY TURD OF A POST FROM UP ON HIGH
If it is going to be bloody the Brotherhood is going to be on the receiving end, not the protesters; the interior ministry and the army both have guns pointed at them. Which is why Brothers are getting armed to protect themselves where possible.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

az jan jananam posted:

If it is going to be bloody the Brotherhood is going to be on the receiving end, not the protesters. Which is why they're getting armed to protect themselves where possible.

Some dude in Tahrir got accused of being in the MB tonight (he wasn't) and was brutally attacked.

Seizure Meat
Jul 23, 2008

by Smythe

Dr. Tough posted:

The 2011 revolution wasn't really that bloodless, according to wikipedia over 800 people died.

Well yeah, that's why I said I know it was pretty violent.

Compared to the rest of the nations embroiled in this? Not so much. 800 dead in the overthrow of an autocratic dictator is pretty good, actually.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

az jan jananam posted:

If it is going to be bloody the Brotherhood is going to be on the receiving end, not the protesters. Which is why they're getting armed to protect themselves where possible.

Think of all of those Libyan weapons seized near Marsa Matrouh as they were en route to Sinai, Upper Egypt, etc. and then think of the reports earlier in the week of police arresting a bus full of armed Islamists heading to Cairo just before the June 30 protests, or Khairat al-Shater's bodyguards getting arrested for possessing illegal weapons.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

az jan jananam posted:

There is truth to what Morsi is saying when he says that his government is legitimate, and that legitimacy is a key issue here. He was elected by a majority of Egyptians in the fairest elections that Egypt has had in decades; the fact that he is grossly incompetent doesn't change that. If this coup happens it sets a rather poor precedent where Islamists get the message that gaining and retaining power through democratic institutions isn't actually a viable option, and that it might be better to simply return to the guerrilla/terrorism campaign of the 80s/90s. Which is that I bet they'll do if the military/dakhiliyya embark on a Brotherhood repression campaign.

I think the big screw up was having 4 year term limits right off the bat. Egypt has changed politically almost as much from Morsi's election to today as it did from the protests until the Mubarak government collapsed. I don't think Egypt was stable enough to be able to accept 4 years of Morsi's rule for its initial term. Hell, I don't know if anyone could have adapted to the changing desires of the Egyptian people over this time. I'd also argue that Morsi misrepresented himself during the electoral process. He spoke of freedom from tyranny and equality, then tried to grant himself sweeping power in the face of massive protests. He spoke of fairness regardless of religious belief, then began implementing religious policies that were unfair to secular Egyptians. And all along, he has shown an arrogant refusal to engage opposition parties to try and reach common ground. He's bad for Egypt in these crucial stages of their fledgling democracy, and I can certainly sympathize with those who think it's time for a new election. I'm not sure I'd call it a real black eye for Egypt yet, but time will tell. I agree that this could have a very bad effect re: Islamism, but it's not like militants haven't already been trying to subvert the democratic process in Egypt, even with Morsi in power.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

az jan jananam posted:

There is truth to what Morsi is saying when he says that his government is legitimate, and that legitimacy is a key issue here. He was elected by a majority of Egyptians in the fairest elections that Egypt has had in decades; the fact that he is grossly incompetent doesn't change that. If this coup happens it sets a rather poor precedent where Islamists get the message that gaining and retaining power through democratic institutions isn't actually a viable option, and that it might be better to simply return to the guerrilla/terrorism campaign of the 80s/90s. Which is that I bet they'll do if the military/dakhiliyya embark on a Brotherhood repression campaign.

Which is why the obvious way out for the brotherhood is through compromise with the protests and Morsi calling for immediate presidential elections. Which is probably still what they're aiming for, but using the time to raise the stakes against the military to get a more favorable negotiation position.

However, this is only plausible if you assume the MB is rational. The way they handled the constitution, opposition parties, the Salafist Nour party and (very weak) government composition implies that their hubris/arrogance reigns supreme over their rationality. If they truly believe they can get away with turning it into a contained civil war that the US will just sit idly by and watch then they're done for.

TheBalor
Jun 18, 2001
Honestly, though, if elections are held within two months, won't the Brotherhood still be in a pretty good position? They had a fairly commanding lead last time.

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Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

TheBalor posted:

Honestly, though, if elections are held within two months, won't the Brotherhood still be in a pretty good position? They had a fairly commanding lead last time.

Not if they're bulldozed into a mass grave on the outskirts of Cairo.

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