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Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Freudian slippers posted:

^^^^
This. They don't need a casus belli, since they've, you know, already invaded. If they wanted to justify a full mobilization/total war approach, they'd bomb something that a) Would create outrage on a much higher level and b) They weren't dependent on to support their war effort. Whatever this was, it wasn't a Russian false flag.
They may be able to manufacture consent in the home media audience but it's looking like that manufactured consent isn't gonna do a whole lot to stop Ukrainian helicopters from blowing up their oil depots

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GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

The humanitarian situation inside Germany is getting pretty dire. After gas price increases of up to 30%, some restaurants are now no longer serving french fries due to lack of sunflower oil. Please pray for the German people

https://twitter.com/WDRaktuell/status/1508758447491272718?t=wAoDp9rg6-ytq-W9qYxV6A&s=19

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015


There were some suspicions after Russia had a relatively quick and easy time capturing Kherson that they had some inside help in the matter. I think part of Putin's strategy, what little that he had, was that there would be enough compromised people high in Ukraine's military they could walk in, but as we've seen most of the Ukrainians just took the money and told the Russians to go gently caress themselves. These two generals were the ones dumb enough to go along with the next part of the plan.

SirTagz
Feb 25, 2014

Any chance that the UA choppers had a way to fool the Russian IFF? Maybe something salvaged from all the destroyed and captured systems?

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

mobby_6kl posted:

Holy poo poo that's nuts if they did it with helicopters.

It's strange to me as well. Why wouldn't they brag about pulling it off? Is a fuel depot worth risking two helicopters and crew, especially when you have drones and Tochkas? But as a false flag it does seem pointless as well, everyone already thinks they're fighting the fourth Reich anyway and it wouldn't be enough to justify sending conscripts.

Ukraine has been pretty measured in trumpeting about such successes officially - both Berdyansk harbor and Belgorod missile strike were confirmed like 12 hours after, not immediately.

Maybe letting social media do its thing and forcing Russia to say some poo poo first is a strategy

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Jos mulle annettaisiin ase, ruumiita tulisi ihan lähijunassakin, you see.

GABA ghoul posted:

The humanitarian situation inside Germany is getting pretty dire. After gas price increases of up to 30%, some restaurants are now no longer serving french fries due to lack of sunflower oil. Please pray for the German people

https://twitter.com/WDRaktuell/status/1508758447491272718?t=wAoDp9rg6-ytq-W9qYxV6A&s=19

I was banking on an April fools joke, but then I saw the date. Maybe Ukraine can facilitate a Panzers for Oil program to help Germany?

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

SirTagz posted:

Any chance that the UA choppers had a way to fool the Russian IFF? Maybe something salvaged from all the destroyed and captured systems?

The most likely way they fooled the IFF system was by flying about 10 feet off the ground the whole way in and out

FishMcCool
Apr 9, 2021

lolcats are still funny
Fallen Rib

GABA ghoul posted:

The humanitarian situation inside Germany is getting pretty dire. After gas price increases of up to 30%, some restaurants are now no longer serving french fries due to lack of sunflower oil. Please pray for the German people

https://twitter.com/WDRaktuell/status/1508758447491272718?t=wAoDp9rg6-ytq-W9qYxV6A&s=19

If Germany starts eating healthier food as a consequence of the invasion, that's another slam-dunk by 5d chessmaster Vlad.

Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

Maybe I'll go where I can see stars
edit: lol nvm

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute

mobby_6kl posted:

The choppers and crew are irreplaceable, but I'd assume russia can get fuel supplies from elsewhere. But you might be right and it bought them some time without airplanes, I obviously don't have a clear picture of what's happening there and if that was a major bottleneck for them.

The fuel itself only matters here and now, Russia has plenty of fuel. But the infrastructure is gone and in the short term irreplaceable.

SirTagz posted:

Any chance that the UA choppers had a way to fool the Russian IFF? Maybe something salvaged from all the destroyed and captured systems?

Or western tech.

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1509797087109599258

Tree Bucket
Apr 1, 2016

R.I.P.idura leucophrys

Trump posted:

The fuel itself only matters here and now, Russia has plenty of fuel. But the infrastructure is gone and in the short term irreplaceable.

Russia had better hope that all the components and materials and expertise necessary to rebuild an oil refinery are available domestically...

Mano
Jul 11, 2012

GABA ghoul posted:

The humanitarian situation inside Germany is getting pretty dire. After gas price increases of up to 30%, some restaurants are now no longer serving french fries due to lack of sunflower oil. Please pray for the German people

https://twitter.com/WDRaktuell/status/1508758447491272718?t=wAoDp9rg6-ytq-W9qYxV6A&s=19

Isn't it mostly Peanut Oil that is used for deep frying? (Higher smokepoint)

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

fatherboxx posted:

Ukraine has been pretty measured in trumpeting about such successes officially - both Berdyansk harbor and Belgorod missile strike were confirmed like 12 hours after, not immediately.

Maybe letting social media do its thing and forcing Russia to say some poo poo first is a strategy

You know I just woke up and assumed this was footage for the strike from a few days ago. And it's an entirely new one lol.


Well doesn't mean they didn't do it but let's see, maybe they just legit didn't have advance information due to opsec reasons

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

This doesn't make any sense though. An oil depot is strategically very important.

If you want to do a false flag, why not attack a civilian target?

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Mano posted:

Isn't it mostly Peanut Oil that is used for deep frying? (Higher smokepoint)

Germany is obviously manufacturing consent for their own invasion of Urkaine so that they can seize the sunflower fields.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Someone's got a lot of extra dimensions in this chess game they're playing with this.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
If, and it's a big if, this was a false flag, this is the reason

https://twitter.com/Schmorkol/status/1509800094652059653

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Jos mulle annettaisiin ase, ruumiita tulisi ihan lähijunassakin, you see.

Charlz Guybon posted:

This doesn't make any sense though. An oil depot is strategically very important.

If you want to do a false flag, why not attack a civilian target?

Don't trust the reports that the place was attacked by helicopters. Something blew up, someone saw helicopters. Doesn't have to be any causal relationship between those. Rumours take off easily during war time. Until there is a credible confirmation of an attack, it's useless to speculate about it.

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001
I mean as many people have mentioned an oil depot for a false flag attack sort of sucks as well it's a pretty legit military target. Particular if it is aviation fuel. Also it just adds to the whole Russia military being pretty pathetic thing which pretty sure Putin would really hate.

Hard to tell what actually is happening, wait... is the Ukrainian army gaslighting Putin?

If so, like loving bravo.

dr_rat fucked around with this message at 09:11 on Apr 1, 2022

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Jos mulle annettaisiin ase, ruumiita tulisi ihan lähijunassakin, you see.
Someone lighting a cigarette next to a 5000000 litre petrol tank is not a false flag, it's just normal.

mrfart
May 26, 2004

Dear diary, today I
became a captain.

GABA ghoul posted:

The humanitarian situation inside Germany is getting pretty dire. After gas price increases of up to 30%, some restaurants are now no longer serving french fries due to lack of sunflower oil. Please pray for the German people


Oh boy, if that happens here in Belgium riots are gonna break out.

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

Charlz Guybon posted:

If, and it's a big if, this was a false flag, this is the reason

https://twitter.com/Schmorkol/status/1509800094652059653

That sounds ridiculously plausible.
Next they should do a false flag on the Kremlin. Putin can't find out their corruption if he is dead.

But I also like the idea of a pseudo false flag, where they make Putin believe that his own army did such a stupid action making him fire them all.

cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 09:17 on Apr 1, 2022

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Nenonen posted:

Don't trust the reports that the place was attacked by helicopters. Something blew up, someone saw helicopters. Doesn't have to be any causal relationship between those. Rumours take off easily during war time. Until there is a credible confirmation of an attack, it's useless to speculate about it.

You can see the helicopters shooting the missiles in the videos. Not just one video either.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

That poo poo is still burning apparently....
https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1509805256670068736?s=20&t=c60rE5QD79n_CgM3IqhFhg

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Nenonen posted:

Don't trust the reports that the place was attacked by helicopters. Something blew up, someone saw helicopters. Doesn't have to be any causal relationship between those. Rumours take off easily during war time. Until there is a credible confirmation of an attack, it's useless to speculate about it.

There's literally a video of choppers launching missiles and an explosion where they impact.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Jos mulle annettaisiin ase, ruumiita tulisi ihan lähijunassakin, you see.

Charlz Guybon posted:

You can see the helicopters shooting the missiles in the videos. Not just one video either.

But do we know the source? How do you know that it's in Belgorod? There's so much to be skeptical of here.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Nenonen posted:

But do we know the source? How do you know that it's in Belgorod? There's so much to be skeptical of here.

True, could be footage from ArmA 4

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003

Nenonen posted:

Don't trust the reports that the place was attacked by helicopters. Something blew up, someone saw helicopters. Doesn't have to be any causal relationship between those. Rumours take off easily during war time. Until there is a credible confirmation of an attack, it's useless to speculate about it.

someone apparently went to the effort to generate multiple videos of helicopters (or some other slow flying, low altitude aircraft) firing rockets at the depot from multiple angles at similar low-light levels

then they were thorough enough to make additional fake videos of helicopters leaving the area while the fire burns in the background.

If that is all faked then it is vastly more effort than has been put into any of Russia's other false flag attempts by several orders of magnitude.

Nenonen posted:

Don't trust the reports that the place was attacked by helicopters. Something blew up, someone saw helicopters. Doesn't have to be any causal relationship between those. Rumours take off easily during war time. Until there is a credible confirmation of an attack, it's useless to speculate about it.

specifics are maybe unclear, but this is better documented so far than like 99% of stuff that has happened in this war.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 09:28 on Apr 1, 2022

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Nenonen posted:

But do we know the source? How do you know that it's in Belgorod? There's so much to be skeptical of here.

What if this entire war is just a virus running on my computer, feeding me AI-generated text and deepfake videos?

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?
There's a small Ukrainian Hind-D unit who had a brilliant idea but didn't want to tell High Command because High Command would have said "No, it's too dangerous".

Coming in two years: A Top Gun sequel where Tom Cruise leads a unconventional Ukrainian helicopter unit based on The Doolittle Raid. One of them has a nose art on it of Paddington Bear.


In a few weeks we find out this goads Putin into committing a war deciding mistake and losing 4 carriers.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Nenonen posted:

But do we know the source? How do you know that it's in Belgorod? There's so much to be skeptical of here.

It's right here: https://goo.gl/maps/s7pe8Hk2KULwLGuG7

Looks at the red roofs in the tweet quote below, you'll see them 250m to the south of the tanks on the map.

SirTagz
Feb 25, 2014

Could be as simple as UA forces having a lot of operational freedom and not giving away their positions to report on their every move. In that case we will get a confirmation eventually.

Though a strike over the border of Russia seems a bit too significant for this explanation

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1509763703901761556?s=20&t=4rRPxCSc-feTSTy_LV3r7g

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1509765821454856237?s=20&t=4rRPxCSc-feTSTy_LV3r7g

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1509754185427959808?s=20&t=4rRPxCSc-feTSTy_LV3r7g

and so on

fuctifino
Jun 11, 2001

by vyelkin

Nenonen posted:

But do we know the source? How do you know that it's in Belgorod? There's so much to be skeptical of here.

There are multiple videos from multiple angles, with quite a few showing helicopters firing rockets at the fuel depot. I think you are being over sceptical here.

e:f;b

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003

A huge russian fuel depot 15 miles across the border from one of the single hottest parts of the conflict getting rocketed is just about the least improbable thing that has happened in this entire conflict.

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing
Considering the PR value of striking inside Russia and taking the fight to them, I'm surprised it hasn't happened before if it's that easy.

mmkay
Oct 21, 2010

acidx posted:

Considering the PR value of striking inside Russia and taking the fight to them, I'm surprised it hasn't happened before if it's that easy.

I think there were a few potshots at some military targets (one or two) in proper Russian territory since the beginning of the war. Possibly in Belgorod too, though I'm far less certain of my memory to bet on that.

a podcast for cats
Jun 22, 2005

Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."
Soiled Meat
A propos of PR and public sentiment in Russia, this thread stood out a bit. Reposting the retweet for credibility, as Max Seddon usually is good on info:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1509788178420486154

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dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

acidx posted:

Considering the PR value of striking inside Russia and taking the fight to them, I'm surprised it hasn't happened before if it's that easy.

I mean Russia was meant to have a shitload of very decent AA systems, so it should of been less easy and more suicidal.

The fact that yet another part of the Russian military has turned out to be a bit garbage is a pleasant surprise, but a big question is, did the helicopter pilots know this before they started the attack, and if so how?

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