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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
In a weird twist that I definitely didn't expect, the so-called Havana syndrome may actually be real? At least partially? An investigation by The Insider, 60 Minutes, and Der Spiegel shows correlation between movement of certain GRU agents and some reported cases.

https://theins.ru/en/politics/270425

Unless it's a very elaborate April 1 joke, just wild.

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fool of sound
Oct 10, 2012
That seems like grasping at straws when the basic test of it being real, having consistent demonstrable symptoms, keeps failing. It’s a social contagion like cops and “fentanyl”.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

fool of sound posted:

That seems like grasping at straws when the basic test of it being real, having consistent demonstrable symptoms, keeps failing. It’s a social contagion like cops and “fentanyl”.

The investigation doesn't claim that literally every case is real (hence 'partially' in my post), so I think there is definitely an element of a social contagion there. I know that a lot of claims of AHI come with the equivalent of that video where a lady violently shakes 'because of the COVID vaccine'. At the same time, I wouldn't disregard it completely out of hand like this after reading the investigation.

quote:

Contrary to the information that has been made public about Havana Syndrome — that it began in the eponymous Cuban capital in 2016 — there were likely attacks two years earlier in Frankfurt, Germany, when a U.S. government employee stationed at the consulate there was knocked unconscious by something akin to a strong energy beam. The victim was later diagnosed with a traumatic brain injury, and was also able to identify a Geneva-based Unit 29155 operative.

quote:

Joy has suffered from headaches every day for the past three years. She has also undergone two surgeries for semicircular canal dehiscence (the appearance of holes in the bony walls that encase her inner ears). She will need a third surgery to address the rapid deterioration of her temporal bone, a condition she says her neurosurgeon cannot explain.

Here, for example, we see some diagnosed conditions that spontaneously developed after the alleged attack. That and the fact that multiple victims identified their attackers gives at least some credence to their claims.

In fairness, it can also be the case that some American paper pushers saw a scary spy for the first time, and it spooked them so much, they thought he shot them with a sound laser. But if the GRU unit identified in the investigation actually worked with the sound laser technology as claimed, that sure makes it an interesting coincidence.

quote:

A yearlong investigation by The Insider, in collaboration with 60 Minutes and Der Spiegel, has uncovered evidence suggesting that unexplained anonymous health incidents, also known as Havana Syndrome, may have their origin in the use of directed energy weapons wielded by members of Unit 29155.

Among this investigation’s core findings is the fact that senior members of the unit received awards and political promotions for work related to the development of “non-lethal acoustic weapons,” a term used in Russian military-scientific literature to describe both sound- and radiofrequency-based directed energy devices, as both would result in acoustic artifacts in the victim’s brain.

These and other operatives attached to Unit 29155, traveling undercover, have been geolocated to places around the world just before or at the time of reported anomalous health incidents — or AHIs, as the U.S. government formally refers to Havana Syndrome. Furthermore, Joy is not the only victim to identify a known member of this Russian black ops squad lurking around her home.

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 14:28 on Apr 1, 2024

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

I watched the segment on 60 Minutes and one interviewee said only agents in the top 5% on their performance reviews were being targeted which is absolutely insane

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Paladinus posted:

The investigation doesn't claim that literally every case is real (hence 'partially' in my post), so I think there is definitely an element of a social contagion there. I know that a lot of claims of AHI come with the equivalent of that video where a lady violently shakes 'because of the COVID vaccine'. At the same time, I wouldn't disregard it completely out of hand like this after reading the investigation.



Here, for example, we see some diagnosed conditions that spontaneously developed after the alleged attack. That and the fact that multiple victims identified their attackers gives at least some credence to their claims.

In fairness, it can also be the case that some American paper pushers saw a scary spy for the first time, and it spooked them so much, they thought he shot them with a sound laser. But if the GRU unit identified in the investigation actually worked with the sound laser technology as claimed, that sure makes it an interesting coincidence.

Where is the evidence for this brain condition? The NIH studied the victims for years and found nothing in this study published a couple weeks ago.

Neuroimaging Findings in Individuals Involved in Anomalous Health Incidents

jamanetwork.com posted:

## Neuroimaging Findings in US Government Personnel and Their Family Members Involved in Anomalous Health Incidents

JAMA. Published online March 18, 2024. doi:10.1001/jama.2024.2424

Original Investigation

Neuroimaging Findings in US Government Personnel With Possible Exposure to Directional Phenomena in Cuba

Original Investigation

Clinical, Biomarker, and Research Findings in Individuals With Anomalous Health Incidents

Leighton Chan, MD, MPH; Mark Hallett, MD; Chris K. Zalewski, PhD; Carmen C. Brewer, PhD; Cris Zampieri, PhD; Michael Hoa, MD; Sara M. Lippa, PhD; Edmond Fitzgibbon, MD; Louis M. French, PsyD; Anita D. Moses, MSN; André J. van der Merwe, BS; Carlo Pierpaoli, MD, PhD; L. Christine Turtzo, MD, PhD; Simge Yonter, MD; Pashtun Shahim, MD, PhD; NIH AHI Intramural Research Program Team; Brian Moore, DMSc, MPH; Lauren Stamps, BS; Spencer Flynn, BA; Julia Fontana, BS; Swathi Tata, BS; Jessica Lo, BS; Mirella A. Fernandez, BS; Annie-Lori Joseph, BS; Jesse Matsubara, DPT; Julie Goldberg, MA; Thuy-Tien D. Nguyen, MS; Noa Sasson, BS; Justine Lely, BS; Bryan Smith, MD; Kelly A. King, AuD, PhD; Jennifer Chisholm, AuD; Julie Christensen, MS; M. Teresa Magone, MD; Chantal Cousineau-Krieger, MD; Rakibul Hafiz, PhD; Amritha Nayak, ME; Okan Irfanoglu, PhD; Sanaz Attaripour, MD; Chen Lai, PhD; Wendy B. Smith, MA, PhD, BCB

Key Points

Question 
Can a systematic evaluation using quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics identify potential brain lesions in patients who have experienced anomalous health incidents (AHIs) compared with a well-matched control group?

Findings 
In this exploratory study that involved brain imaging of 81 participants who experienced AHIs and 48 matched control participants, there were no significant between-group differences in MRI measures of volume, diffusion MRI–derived metrics, or functional connectivity using functional MRI after adjustments for multiple comparisons. The MRI results were highly reproducible and stable at longitudinal follow-ups. No clear relationships between imaging and clinical variables emerged.

Meaning 
In this exploratory neuroimaging study, there was no significant MRI-detectable evidence of brain injury among the group of participants who experienced AHIs compared with a group of matched control participants. This finding has implications for future research efforts as well as for interventions aimed at improving clinical care for the participants who experienced AHIs.
....
Conclusions and Relevance In this exploratory neuroimaging study, there were no significant differences in imaging measures of brain structure or function between individuals reporting AHIs and matched control participants after adjustment for multiple comparisons.

In fact there was another one just published

Clinical, Biomarker, and Research Findings in Individuals With Anomalous Health Incidents

jamanetwork.com posted:

Questions 
Do US government officials and their family members involved in anomalous health incidents (AHIs) differ from control participants with respect to clinical, biomarker, and research assessments?

Findings 
In this exploratory study that included 86 participants reporting AHIs and 30 vocationally matched control participants, there were no significant differences in most tests of auditory, vestibular, cognitive, visual function, or blood biomarkers between the groups. Participants with AHIs performed significantly worse on self-reported and objective measures of balance, and had significantly increased symptoms of fatigue, posttraumatic stress disorder, and depression compared with the control participants; 24 participants (28%) with AHIs presented with functional neurological disorders.

Meaning 
In this exploratory study, there were no significant differences between individuals reporting AHIs and matched control participants with respect to most clinical, research, and biomarker measures, except for self-reported and objective measures of imbalance; symptoms of fatigue, posttraumatic stress, and depression; and the development of functional neurological disorders in some.

mawarannahr fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Apr 1, 2024

KingaSlipek
Jun 14, 2009
Some of the people behind this investigation also found out who were the perpetrators in the Skripal and Navalny poisoning. To outright dismiss it, is, I think, a bit arrogant.

The report establishes that the Soviet union and Russia have been researching weapons like the one theorized here for decades. It provides some evidence as to who was behind it, and it establishes a motive.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
It appears possible that a small number of people were genuinely targeted and injured while the remainder were either due to mass hysteria or suffered no discernable long term harm. Broad studies of all alleged victims could then find no result statistically speaking.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

fool of sound posted:

It’s a social contagion like ... “fentanyl”.

What?

Carfentanil, usually sold on the streets as fentanyl, is a very real problem. It became the darling of smugglers when they started getting cheap supply out of China, because it's by weight about 4000 times more potent than heroin, meaning you can smuggle in a suitcase more doses than you can fit into a 20ft container full of heroin.

When they get it past the border, they can then cut it until it matches other available opiates. Except that criminals cutting drugs are generally not great at mixing quality, which is why tons and tons of people die of overdose.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Tuna-Fish posted:

What?

Carfentanil, usually sold on the streets as fentanyl, is a very real problem. It became the darling of smugglers when they started getting cheap supply out of China, because it's by weight about 4000 times more potent than heroin, meaning you can smuggle in a suitcase more doses than you can fit into a 20ft container full of heroin.

When they get it past the border, they can then cut it until it matches other available opiates. Except that criminals cutting drugs are generally not great at mixing quality, which is why tons and tons of people die of overdose.

You've cut out the key part. It's not just fentanyl that's a social contagion, it's the specific combination of US cops fainting and having "difficulty breathing" (panic attacks) when they notice anything resembling a white powder.

Jethro
Jun 1, 2000

I was raised on the dairy, Bitch!

Tuna-Fish posted:

What?

Carfentanil, usually sold on the streets as fentanyl, is a very real problem. It became the darling of smugglers when they started getting cheap supply out of China, because it's by weight about 4000 times more potent than heroin, meaning you can smuggle in a suitcase more doses than you can fit into a 20ft container full of heroin.

When they get it past the border, they can then cut it until it matches other available opiates. Except that criminals cutting drugs are generally not great at mixing quality, which is why tons and tons of people die of overdose.
He's talking about the fact that anytime a cop spots a white powder they pass out and blame it on somehow overdosing from absorbing fentanyl through their skin and the department puts out a press release talking about how it took 27 shots of narcan to bring them out of the OD when that pretty much proves it was a panic attack.

E: F,b

Jethro fucked around with this message at 16:09 on Apr 1, 2024

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

mawarannahr posted:

Where is the evidence for this brain condition? The NIH studied the victims for years and found nothing in this study published a couple weeks ago.

Neuroimaging Findings in Individuals Involved in Anomalous Health Incidents

In fact there was another one just published

Clinical, Biomarker, and Research Findings in Individuals With Anomalous Health Incidents

Worth noting that other studies also undertaken at the behest at the government did find clear evidence. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/havana-syndrome-culprit-investigation-new-evidence-60-minutes-transcript/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7d&linkId=379838418

quote:

A major medical study for the government was led by Dr. David Relman of Stanford University. In our 2022 report he told us…

Dr. David Relman: What we found was we thought clear evidence of an injury to the auditory and vestibular system of the brain. Everything starting with the inner ear where humans perceive sound and sense balance, and then translate those perceptions into brain electrical signals.

His study found, "directed pulsed (radio frequency) energy…appears to be the most plausible mechanism…" For example, a focused beam of microwaves or acoustic ultrasound. More than 100 officials or family members have unexplained, persistent, symptoms.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

D-Pad posted:

Worth noting that other studies also undertaken at the behest at the government did find clear evidence. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/havana-syndrome-culprit-investigation-new-evidence-60-minutes-transcript/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7d&linkId=379838418

Do you have a link to this study? I couldn't find a link or a citation in the article.

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

i hope this all turns out to be bullshit because i am not ready for history textbooks to have to include the saga of international incidents from hostile spy organizations intentionally scrambling the brains of embassy and administrative staff (and their families) with prototype directed energy mind microwavers that turned out to be real

Cocaine Bear
Nov 4, 2011

ACAB

They were hungover and wanted to get out of work. Cuba or the soviet union didn't have a magic brain altering ray gun.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Cocaine Bear posted:

They were hungover and wanted to get out of work. Cuba or the soviet union didn't have a magic brain altering ray gun.

I would completely believe that the FSB leaked misinformation about Russian involvement in Havana Syndrome to the Insider and 60 Minutes to make them seem more powerful on the international stage given Ukraine is a quagmire and they recently had a major intelligence failure with the Crocus Hall massacre.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Young Freud posted:

I would completely believe that the FSB leaked misinformation about Russian involvement in Havana Syndrome to the Insider and 60 Minutes to make them seem more powerful on the international stage given Ukraine is a quagmire and they recently had a major intelligence failure with the Crocus Hall massacre.

I don't know a lot about the FSB but I guaran-loving-tee that they will not under any circumstance hand it to the GRU.

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010
Comedy option is that GRU operatives were using decades of sonic-weapon research in an attempted attack on US Embassies worldwide, but failed to cause any damage.

Vahakyla
May 3, 2013

Morrow posted:

Comedy option is that GRU operatives were using decades of sonic-weapon research in an attempted attack on US Embassies worldwide, but failed to cause any damage.

Hopefully I won't eat a probe but in Finnish there's a saying that "How do you recognize a Russian rear end vibrator? It doesn't fit into an rear end, and it doesn't vibrate".

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer
I had to put up a lot with this forum over the years, but not believing in microwaves is a new low.

what's next, not believing in fire?

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Vahakyla posted:

Hopefully I won't eat a probe but in Finnish there's a saying that "How do you recognize a Russian rear end vibrator? It doesn't fit into an rear end, and it doesn't vibrate".

https://youtu.be/4BUb0IB0LOE?feature=shared

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Vahakyla posted:

Hopefully I won't eat a probe but in Finnish there's a saying that "How do you recognize a Russian rear end vibrator? It doesn't fit into an rear end, and it doesn't vibrate".

There's a similar old Soviet joke. What is huge as a house and needs 20 litres of fuel to slice one apple into three pieces? A Soviet four-piece apple slicer machine.

E: Beaten by the Chernobyl adaptation, lol.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Paladinus posted:

There's a similar old Soviet joke. What is huge as a house and needs 20 litres of fuel to slice one apple into three pieces? A Soviet four-piece apple slicer machine.

E: Beaten by the Chernobyl adaptation, lol.

E: beaten by the E

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


https://x.com/nytimes/status/1774885709679120649?s=20

I could see Johnson pushing the legislation through despite other Republicans being against it. He himself supports Ukraine and if they're going to remove him as speaker he might as well get something accomplished.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Gucci Loafers posted:

https://x.com/nytimes/status/1774885709679120649?s=20

I could see Johnson pushing the legislation through despite other Republicans being against it. He himself supports Ukraine and if they're going to remove him as speaker he might as well get something accomplished.

NY Times: Lucy about to hand the football over. Yes, the person who spent past 6 months blocking it in various dishonest ways wants to see it happen.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
so apropos of nothing, is it just me or did all of the nordstream investigations kind of peter out into nothingness? are any of the countries with potential jurisdiction still actively investigating?

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






GhostofJohnMuir posted:

so apropos of nothing, is it just me or did all of the nordstream investigations kind of peter out into nothingness? are any of the countries with potential jurisdiction still actively investigating?

IIRC Denmark and Sweden have closed their investigations, and Germany's is still open.

I wouldn't hold my breath for any official closure anytime soon.

spankmeister fucked around with this message at 22:43 on Apr 1, 2024

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.
Yeah I think the takeaway has generally been that proving culpability is probably not possible. While Russia remains the best suspect in terms of motive (avoiding fines for shuttering it to try to starve Germany of fossil fuels), capability (multiple ships in the area acting suspiciously), and past history (previous similar sabotage actions), the evidence is largely circumstantial. Ukraine was blamed by a group of German journalists, but experts have generally refuted those claims or believe it was a false flag operation (the alleged saboteurs lacked the equipment or expertise, and are linked to Russia). In any case, the outcome of the investigation probably wouldn't yield anything positive - Russia wouldn't cooperate with any verdict, and it would be difficult to blame Ukraine or another friendly nation for destroying something that should never have been built in the first place.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/01/iran-warned-russia-of-terror-attack-before-crocus-city-hall/

unnamed sources are suggesting that iran sent it's own warning to russia before the crocus attacks based on interrogations of is members captured in the investigation into their own recent major terrorist attack. though i suppose this doesn't preclude the "islamic state is a direct extension of the cia" narrative

Kaal posted:

Yeah I think the takeaway has generally been that proving culpability is probably not possible. While Russia remains the best suspect in terms of motive (avoiding fines for shuttering it to try to starve Germany of fossil fuels), capability (multiple ships in the area acting suspiciously), and past history (previous similar sabotage actions), the evidence is largely circumstantial. Ukraine was blamed by a group of German journalists, but experts have generally refuted those claims or believe it was a false flag operation (the alleged saboteurs lacked the equipment or expertise, and are linked to Russia). In any case, the outcome of the investigation probably wouldn't yield anything positive - Russia wouldn't cooperate with any verdict, and it would be difficult to blame Ukraine or another friendly nation for destroying something that should never have been built in the first place.

it feels like the kind of incident that would have strong public sentiment for some kind of definitive resolution, but maybe the german public simply doesn't want to think about how closely entwined they were with putin?

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

Kaal posted:

Ukraine was blamed by a group of German journalists....

It was not just a group of journalist, but Der Spiegel specifically. Their journalism is mostly considered reliable, but the specific piece about it reads like their source is someone in the FSB feeding them info. It did happen to get a lot of well deserved backlash in other segments of German media.

mmkay
Oct 21, 2010

Paladinus posted:

There's a similar old Soviet joke. What is huge as a house and needs 20 litres of fuel to slice one apple into three pieces? A Soviet four-piece apple slicer machine.

E: Beaten by the Chernobyl adaptation, lol.

And in a similar vein: why did the Soviet microprocessor industry fail? They couldn't fit the microprocessors through the factory gates.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Kaal posted:

Yeah I think the takeaway has generally been that proving culpability is probably not possible. While Russia remains the best suspect in terms of motive (avoiding fines for shuttering it to try to starve Germany offossil fuels), capability (multiple ships in the area acting suspiciously), and past history (previous similar sabotage actions), the evidence is largely circumstantial. Ukraine was blamed by a group of German journalists, but experts have generally refuted those claims or believe it was a false flag operation (the alleged saboteurs lacked the equipment or expertise, and are linked to Russia). In any case, the outcome of the investigation probably wouldn't yield anything positive - Russia wouldn't cooperate with any verdict, and it would be difficult to blame Ukraine or another friendly nation for destroying something that should never have been built in the first place.

Dick Ripple posted:

It was not just a group of journalist, but Der Spiegel specifically. Their journalism is mostly considered reliable, but the specific piece about it reads like their source is someone in the FSB feeding them info. It did happen to get a lot of well deserved backlash in other segments of German media.

There's quite a bit more to it than just Der Spiegel, and at this point it is a rather uncommon view amongst mainstream Western observers that Russia might be responsible. Radio Free Europe sums up some of the coverage here:
Reports Say CIA Warned Ukraine Not To Sabotage Nord Stream Pipeline Prior To Blasts

www.rferl.org posted:

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency reportedly warned Ukraine not to sabotage the Nord Stream undersea gas pipelines last year after receiving a tip from the Netherlands’ intelligence agency that a plot was under way.

The reports by several European and U.S. media outlets deepen the mystery of the Baltic Sea pipeline, which was mostly destroyed in September in explosions that remain under investigation.

In the aftermath of the blasts, Western officials blamed Russia for the September 26 incident, which all but destroyed the twin pipelines at a spot just east of a Danish island called Bornholm. The explosions were discovered as residual gas in the pipelines bubbled up to the surface.

The Ukrainian government has repeatedly denied responsibility for the attack.

In the months that followed the blasts, the mystery over who was responsible deepened, with a spate of reports by European media organizations that focused on a yacht called the Andromeda that had been rented at a German port by a group of people, some of whom showed Bulgarian passports. German investigators reportedly found traces of explosives on the Andromeda, which had been reported in Bornholm prior to the explosions.

Other reports focused on the presence of a Greek-flagged tanker that had been seen drifting around the site of the blasts and later continued on to a Russian port.

Last month, the German newspaper Die Zeit and The Wall Street Journal reported that German police raided an apartment in the eastern German city of Frankfurt an der Oder, investigating a woman whose former boyfriend was a Ukrainian soldier. According to the reports, the soldier was among the crew members on the Andromeda prior to the blasts.

On June 13, Dutch public broadcaster NOS, along with German newspaper Die Ziet and public broadcaster ARD, reported that in June a year earlier, the main Dutch intelligence agency received a tip that a secret plot by Ukrainian operatives was under way to target the pipelines.

The Dutch agency forwarded the tip to the CIA, which then warned Ukrainian officials not to carry out the effort.

That reporting was later corroborated by The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed U.S. officials. U.S. officials were reportedly told by Ukrainian counterparts that the plot had been aborted.

Then, in September, the explosions took place.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that German investigators were examining evidence that suggested the sabotage team had used Poland as a conduit or base for carrying out the attack.

A top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Mykhaylo Podolyak, called the latest reporting "endless anonymous sources [that are] artificially fueling the disinformation campaign about Ukraine's alleged involvement in the destruction of the Nord Stream."

It "should be viewed as a deliberate campaign to undermine Ukraine's credibility, reputation, and voice in the global arena," Podolyak said in a post on Twitter on June 13.

U.S. and European media have said the group that carried out of the attack may have done so without the knowledge of Zelenskiy or other top officials.

Then in November was this further development that Washington Post characterized as "the most direct evidence to date tying Ukraine’s military and security leadership" to it. Radio Free Europe summarizes:

Report: Senior Ukrainian Military Officer With Intelligence Ties 'Coordinated' Nord Stream Sabotage

www.rferl.org posted:

A decorated officer in the Ukrainian military with "deep ties" to the country's intelligence services "played a central role" and was the "coordinator" of the attack last year on the Nord Stream natural-gas pipeline, The Washington Post reported on November 11.

The report alleged that 48-year-old Special Forces Colonel Roman Chervinskiy "took orders from more senior Ukrainian officials, who ultimately reported to General Valeriy Zaluzhniy," who is Ukraine's top-ranking officer.

It quoted Ukrainian and European officials and "other people knowledgeable about the details of the covert operation."

The Washington Post said that, through an attorney, Chervinskiy had rejected accusations that he was involved in the sabotage.

There is a whole lot of other news and comment for y'all to catch up on if you haven't been following.

This one is a long form article from the Atlantic for those who have an afternoon to kill: The Destruction of the Nord Stream Pipeline Is the Mystery No One Wants Solved(theatlantic.com - Wed, 13 Dec 2023). I think this part of the end is an astute observation on the difficulties involved in assigning blame:

quote:

Until there is some formal resolution, unofficial findings and theories are all we have. But the evidence at the scene of the blasts is well documented. A military-like crew aboard the Andromeda definitely wandered in the vicinity of the explosion sites, behavior that may of course turn out to have an innocent explanation. Then there is the explosive residue found on Andromeda. Hersh, for his part, contends that the Andromeda voyage and the explosive residue are part of a carefully constructed ploy designed to steer investigators away from the truth. If so, given the variety of sources and methods used to reconstruct Andromeda’s voyage, it would be a remarkably intricate confection. If the official investigations do identify Ukrainians as the perpetrators, as I suspect they will, many of those inclined to believe the Russia theory or the America theory will hold to their opinions. People tend to believe what they wish to believe, and theories are bound up with political ends.

That said, there are also ample reasons why many are not eager to assign blame—even if, in the end, investigators will have to come to a conclusion. Officially naming Russia, the U.S., or Ukraine as the saboteur would have sticky political consequences all around. The belief that Russia might have carried out the attack has already helped swell military spending in Scandinavia, spending that some in the region oppose. If Russia is shown to be behind the attack, that opposition could lose traction. Identifying Russia as the perpetrator would also put Germany on the back foot: Germany had seen Russia as a partner, and German companies had invested in Nord Stream. Because Germany is now aligned with the United States and Ukraine in resisting Putin’s invasion, pinning the attack on the U.S. or Ukraine would pose its own difficulties. If Ukraine is responsible, it would make that country appear singularly ungrateful, because European arms and ammunition have kept it in the fight. Blowing up a major piece of energy infrastructure in the middle of the Baltic would feel like a betrayal. At the same time, it would make Russia look weak and ineffectual, unable to defend a marquee infrastructure project on its doorstep. The Biden administration, which has worked strenuously to rebuild its alliance with Europe and to rally its support for Ukraine, would appear coldly calculating and two-faced if it was behind the sabotage.

I don't think this one was directly linked above but can't get past the paywall today: U.S. had intelligence of detailed Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream pipeline (washingtonpost.com - Tue, 06 Jun 2023)

Some recent updates from this month include:

Nord Stream sues insurers in London over 2022 pipeline blasts(reuters.com)

And as has been mentioned, Sweden and Denmark shut down their inquiry about a month ago:
Sweden closes probe into explosions on Nord Stream pipelines, saying it doesn't have jurisdiction

apnews.com - Wed, 07 Feb 2024 posted:

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Swedish officials said Wednesday that they have decided to close their investigation into the September 2022 explosions on the underwater Nord Stream gas pipelines which were built to carry Russian natural gas to Germany, saying they don’t have jurisdiction.
Denmark drops investigation into Nord Stream pipeline blasts(theguardian.com)

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

KingaSlipek posted:

The report establishes that the Soviet union and Russia have been researching weapons like the one theorized here for decades. It provides some evidence as to who was behind it, and it establishes a motive.

The United States spent decades researching mind powers, parapsychology and trying to use Jedi Mind Tricks. We have entire Hollywood movies about who was behind it and there is plenty of motive on why.

It's called work and we all hate it.


Now that I have diagnosed the condition, please give me 200 million in secret US defence department funding to weaponize it.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

There is indeed a certain indifference to the NS sabotage in the German population (outside of the right-wing/tankie bubble). By the time it blew up there was an overwhelming public sentiment that gas imports from Russia needed to hit zero in 2023 and Russia had already shut down deliveries over the pipelines for some time. From that perspective, someone blew up a worthless & unwanted piece of metal junk in foreign waters. The monetary damage was literally 0.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
purported footage of ukrainian drone strikes unsuccessfully targeting a drone factory and successfully hitting a refinery in multiple towns in tartarstan is making the rounds. if it's correctly geolocated than ukraine is now able to strike to the foot of the urals. some 700 miles from the russian border

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1775047435603091537

suicide drone looks like it's essentially a small cassena, definitely not getting past any purpose built aa, but setting up adequate heavy machine guns/light flak canons at worthwhile factory, refinery and warehouse district seems like it'll be a pain to organize

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

GABA ghoul posted:

There is indeed a certain indifference to the NS sabotage in the German population (outside of the right-wing/tankie bubble). By the time it blew up there was an overwhelming public sentiment that gas imports from Russia needed to hit zero in 2023 and Russia had already shut down deliveries over the pipelines for some time. From that perspective, someone blew up a worthless & unwanted piece of metal junk in foreign waters. The monetary damage was literally 0.

Both Russia and Germany weirdly are OK with NS being gone I think.

Putin wants any way back from his forever war policy cut off and Germany does not want to get fooled again into being dependent on Russia in case someone trows Putin out a window and pretends to be good friends now.

d64
Jan 15, 2003
Speaking of gas pipelines, I read EU countries are spending about six billion annually on Russian gas, with the numbers being fairly flat comparing to one year ago. Austria is the largest buyer.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

d64 posted:

Speaking of gas pipelines, I read EU countries are spending about six billion annually on Russian gas, with the numbers being fairly flat comparing to one year ago. Austria is the largest buyer.

Austria currently imports over 90% of its gas from Russia, which continues to increase since the war started. They have a contract with Gazprom until 2040, so of course nothing can be done about that.

There are efforts to amend it, but the parties involved (think it is mostly the Greens) have little chance of getting into power and see other efforts as more important to spend what little political capital they have on.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
Isn't the gas to Austria going through pipelines in Ukraine, for which Gazprom still pays Ukraine every month for transit?

Paranoea
Aug 4, 2009
This wasn't posted here yet: Russia recently launched one of the biggest armored vehicle assaults of the war. It didn't go well, but apparently shows Russia's renewed interest in committing tanks and BMPs on the front line.

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Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

CeeJee posted:

Isn't the gas to Austria going through pipelines in Ukraine, for which Gazprom still pays Ukraine every month for transit?

Yes. There is also the TurkStream, which feeds Turkey and others who have access to the Mediterranean. The thing about the Ukrainian line is Kyiv is saying they will not renew the deal which is set to expire sometime the end of this year, so countries relying on it (Austria) should be preparing for that.

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