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JeffersonClay posted:I’m suggesting he had internal polling conducted on Saturday or Sunday which indicated the large majority of the democratic base didn’t support the shutdown you idiot. He’s certainly better informed than the people here raving about the democratic electorate never forgiving democrats for this betrayal.  No, JC - I do not for a second believe that the guy who said that for every blue collar worker Clinton lost, she would gain two wealthy white moderate Republican votes, has a better handle on the Democratic base than most of the posters here. And if Schumer wasn’t prepared to back the DREAMers to the hilt, he probably shouldn’t have started down this quixotic road in the first place. He has made himself look really foolish, and I’m relieved to see that even some of his colleagues in Congress recognize it. quote:If you’re so fragile that accurate descriptions of the feelings of the democratic base feel like trolling, maybe you need a nap? Probably not the line of rhetoric that you want to be following. 
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Jan 25, 2018 07:53
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Schumer basically can't help himself but jump in front of a camera any chance he gets. Dude is notorious for being a publicity hound, even by national Democratic politician standards. Sometimes it's for the greater good, like when he endorsed Ellison for DNC chair because he thought it'd get him in the papers, and sometimes it goes bad, like when he let himself and his party get outfoxed by a turtle-faced rube and a carnival barker and led the Democrats into a no-win situation, because it gave him the chance to make grand but ultimately empty statements on national television. And here's the thing: Schumer is one of the shrewder Democrats in the Senate.
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Jan 25, 2018 09:11
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Kilroy posted:Schumer basically can't help himself but jump in front of a camera any chance he gets. Dude is notorious for being a publicity hound, even by national Democratic politician standards. Sometimes it's for the greater good, like when he endorsed Ellison for DNC chair because he thought it'd get him in the papers, and sometimes it goes bad, like when he let himself and his party get outfoxed by a turtle-faced rube and a carnival barker and led the Democrats into a no-win situation, because it gave him the chance to make grand but ultimately empty statements on national television. And yet the lanyard types (some in this very thread!) have this weird emotional attachment to him, Pelosi, and the other strategically incompetent Democratic leaders, no matter how often they show themselves to have no real connection to the voters they need to mobilize. It's...ever so slightly vexing.
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Jan 25, 2018 09:18
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Perhaps Schumer had some gloomy polling last week but shut the government down anyway on the chance the polls were wrong. Then he gets new polling over the weekend that’s worse than he expected, so he pulls the plug rather than picking a losing battle with Trump. I’d much rather have Schumer take a risk for the Dreamers and lose than for him to do nothing at all. But then again I’m not one of the political wizards itt who were convinced Schumer was listening to the billionaire donors and not the base  I sincerely wish we did not live in a world where democrats need to listen to a coalition of people with so many dumb and abhorrent views, but we do. It’s a common sentiment here that democrats are bad because they don’t listen to the base, but just as often they’re bad because they do.
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Jan 25, 2018 09:23
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JeffersonClay posted:I’d much rather have Schumer take a risk for the Dreamers and lose than for him to do nothing at all. He didn’t take a risk for the DREAMers. That’s the point.
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Jan 25, 2018 09:35
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I'm pretty sure that a lot of people didn't support the shutdown because they realized it was empty political theatre and that the Dem establishment lacks the spine to make it anything more than that.
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Jan 25, 2018 09:45
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JeffersonClay posted:I sincerely wish we did not live in a world where democrats need to listen to a coalition of people with so many dumb and abhorrent views, but we do. It’s a common sentiment here that democrats are bad because they don’t listen to the base, but just as often they’re bad because they do. It's not like they're turning a leaf here and will be studiously paying attention to the desires of "the base", however defined, going forward.
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Jan 25, 2018 09:46
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Cerebral Bore posted:I'm pretty sure that a lot of people didn't support the shutdown because they realized it was empty political theatre and that the Dem establishment lacks the spine to make it anything more than that. I think this is ascribing a level of political knowledge to people that isn't realistic. It's probably more like a combination of people who are afraid of things outside of the regular order and people who stood to be adversely affected by the shutdown in a significant, material way (such as, for example, people relying on government assistance, who represent a large number of Democratic voters). As an aside: https://twitter.com/zellieimani/status/956321340507738112
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Jan 25, 2018 09:49
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On polling, the polls still show that the public at large places more blames on Trump and the Republicans, than they do on the Democrats. I wish the margins were greater, but considering Trump's approval rating and the proportion blaming the Dems are roughly the same, I guess this is about the best that could be hoped for. What's curious though, is that in spite of the this it seems like the most reliable Democratic voters are the ones most pissed off at the Democrats over all this. Which given the polls, is interesting: if most people don't blame Democrats for the shutdown, then you would expect the base to be taking this in stride and a lot of them aren't. Many liberals and leftists alike seem pissed. I wonder why that is? I mentioned that the Democrats basically put themselves in this no-win situation back in September. They certainly haven't come off as shrewd negotiators. But really, the Democrats put themselves in a no-win situation back in November 2016, or even earlier when they gave up being a political party and instead turned into a grift machine and politicians' guild that lost thousands of seats in local races across the country. I'm not sure yet, but it feels like the reaction we're seeing here is basically more people getting fed up with a Democratic party that isn't really good for much else than losing elections to Republicans. We might be at a turning point where "the Democrats are a waste" gains a bit more steam among a more broad coalition of the Democratic base. And what I hope that translates into in a stronger showing in the primaries where we do more to kick the gutless consultant classes and the JeffersonClays of the party to the loving curb where they've always belonged, and start to forge the Democratic party into something that occasionally looks like a winning team. It could also just depress turnout though - that would be bad. As for what to do about DREAMers, there is not much Democrats can do as they have almost no power and they've squandered most of their leverage already. I'm with Lightning Knight: if we get DACA in exchange for wall funding then that's a loss but it's one we'll have to live with. But it's a loss we shouldn't forget either, and Democrats in Washington should get no reward, no commendation for achieving it. We should just be a little nicer when showing them the door, and maybe not be quite as harsh on them when writing of this period in American history.
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Jan 25, 2018 10:14
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Some other good news from that poll, which wasn’t discussed in the top lines: Democrats would support a government shutdown to protect dreamers 53/36, probably more like high 40’s / low 40’s when you include independent leaners, so there’s much more support than the “unnecessary” question might indicate. Democrats support the way congressional democrats have handled DACA 73/22. So the number of democrats who think democrats are loving this all up is small. 49% of democrats said the shutdown made them more likely to support democrats in the fall. 51% said it made no difference. 0% said it made them less likely to vote for democrats. Literally no democrats reported that this shutdown made them less likely to vote in the fall, so chicken littling about the democrats self destructing here is thankfully inaccurate. https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2515
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Jan 25, 2018 10:23
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If there's any time you can get away with shutting down the government, during the reign of a historically unpopular President widely seen as incompetent, belligerent and likely insane is probably it.
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Jan 25, 2018 10:31
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I sure am motivated to vote for some democrats!
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Jan 25, 2018 12:50
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GlyphGryph posted:Jefferson Clay is actually extremely representative of many of the sorts of dem insiders I have to deal with face to face on a regular basis. They're privileged white people, OP, they're basically superpredators
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Jan 25, 2018 13:05
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I still don't understand why that one poll was a three-way between Republicans, Democrats, and Trump, instead of just GOP vs Dems.
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Jan 25, 2018 15:30
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Cerebral Bore posted:I'm pretty sure that a lot of people didn't support the shutdown because they realized it was empty political theatre and that the Dem establishment lacks the spine to make it anything more than that. They may also not support it because it hurts millions of people. There's no back pay for a shutdown. Any long shutdown is going to have people defaulting on mortgages or any number of other problems.
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Jan 25, 2018 15:31
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Pollyanna posted:I still don't understand why that one poll was a three-way between Republicans, Democrats, and Trump, instead of just GOP vs Dems. I'm assuming to make it look like more people blame the Democrats than they would in a two way match up since the media wants to cover for the Republicans at any opportunity. I mean if you asked me that question I would definitely answer "Trump" because the deal prior to everything going to poo poo was not great but not the worst and got Dreamer amnesty and that had Congress mostly on board. If it was just Republicans vs Democrats my answer would obviously be Republicans since the Republicans and Trump are now the same thing regardless of how the New York Times for example desperately wants that not to be the case.
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Jan 25, 2018 15:32
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Pollyanna posted:I still don't understand why that one poll was a three-way between Republicans, Democrats, and Trump, instead of just GOP vs Dems. Liberal media! Horse race! Watch Nate Silver meltdown!
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Jan 25, 2018 15:37
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https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/956530486784024582
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Jan 25, 2018 16:26
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LOL at the guy in that feed saying we need to be nicer to David Frum since he's an ally now. #resistance idiots would gladly take in literally any villain as long as he or she was moderately critical of Trump. Once they get back into power they aren't even going to know what to do once they no longer have an enemy to rally against and that seems to be their only ideology, much like how Trump still spends his time bitching about Obama and Hillary. EDIT: I mean the ones that complain on twitter, the leaders know exactly what they are going to do which is keep the tax cuts and then pretend to pass laws but allow the filibuster to stop anything real from happening. Eggplant Squire fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Jan 25, 2018 |
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Jan 25, 2018 16:36
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The "woke" Bill Kristol subplot is the best storyline no matter what Glenn says.
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Jan 25, 2018 16:55
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Tom DeLay, where is your wisdom and unerring ethical clarity now that we need you so bad? Just call Trump 'unpresidential' once, and all is forgiven!
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Jan 25, 2018 16:59
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This comic is not even an exaggeration.
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Jan 25, 2018 17:04
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VitalSigns posted:This comic is not even an exaggeration. Samantha Bee did this before 2017 started and Glenn Beck couldn't even keep up the lie he thought Trump was bad. Eggplant Squire fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Jan 25, 2018 |
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Jan 25, 2018 17:11
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Radish posted:Samantha Bee did this before 2017 started and Glenn Beck couldn't even keep up the lie he thought Trump was bad. In all fairness, Sam Bee is so very, very terrible.
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Jan 25, 2018 17:36
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JeffersonClay posted:Democrats support the way congressional democrats have handled DACA 73/22. So the number of democrats who think democrats are loving this all up is small. This is a bad way to interpret this statistic. It's a percent of Democrats which are a group that, by definition, would normally be expected by default to support the actions of Democratic politicians. 22% of self-identified Democratic base being disappointed in something the Democrats did could be significant. In order to know whether it's significant, you would need to know what the average dissent within Democratic voters is for Democratic behavior/performance. If it's normal for 10% of Democrats to disprove of a Democratic politicians' actions, then 22% would be significantly high, but if it's normal for, say, 30% to disapprove then it would be representative of higher-than-average approval. JeffersonClay posted:49% of democrats said the shutdown made them more likely to support democrats in the fall. 51% said it made no difference. 0% said it made them less likely to vote for democrats. Literally no democrats reported that this shutdown made them less likely to vote in the fall, so chicken littling about the democrats self destructing here is thankfully inaccurate. This statistic is actually relevant, though, and probably implies that anyone bothered by the Democrats' behavior in the shutdown was already the type of person critical of Democrats and that the type of person who was already very supportive stayed supportive. Majorian posted:And yet the lanyard types (some in this very thread!) have this weird emotional attachment to him, Pelosi, and the other strategically incompetent Democratic leaders, no matter how often they show themselves to have no real connection to the voters they need to mobilize. It's...ever so slightly vexing. I don't think it's an emotional attachment to the politicians so much as a strong feeling of irritation and distaste towards the left that prompts them to take the opposing position to whatever seems to be the dominant leftist narrative. In their minds, leftists are basically a stereotype; maybe they imagine the poster as a white neckbeard, or maybe they imagine them as a person with a Che shirt, but the key point is that they "know" that the person they're engaging with is dumb and ignorant and probably also a bigot. Some leftists also stereotype the mainstream center-left in this way ("lanyards" and what have you), but at least it's accompanied by an actual ideological disagreement in that case. Ytlaya fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Jan 25, 2018 |
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Jan 25, 2018 18:04
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Ytlaya posted:This is a bad way to interpret this statistic. It's a percent of Democrats which are a group that, by definition, would normally be expected by default to support the actions of Democratic politicians. 22% of self-identified Democratic base being disappointed in something the Democrats did could be significant. Do you intend to do any of the legwork to try and support this conjecture? In the same polling we see that half of democrats are more likely to vote for democrats due to the shutdown, and zero democrats are less likely. That implies no Democrats thought this was bad enough to change their ex ante position. Also, in the same poll, approval of congressional democrats handling the dream act is higher among democrats than approval of their work in congress generally 73/22 to 56/38. So no, my interpretation of that statistic was entirely appropriate. This is a great example of why your constant hypothetical objections to data are insufficient. You need to actually support your conjectures with data, rather than assuming that problems with data that could be true are actually true.
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Jan 25, 2018 18:26
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Sephyr posted:Tom DeLay, where is your wisdom and unerring ethical clarity now that we need you so bad?
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Jan 25, 2018 18:54
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I'm certainly more likely to vote in the primary because of the shutdown, and depending on how that goes, in the general as well. It does feel like the Democrats got played over the course of six months by a carnival barker and a turtle in a human suit, and while it's good that they "got" CHIP, that was a crisis manufactured by the GOP explicitly for this purpose in the first place.
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Jan 25, 2018 19:16
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JeffersonClay posted:Do you intend to do any of the legwork to try and support this conjecture? Cherry picking polls to support your position doesn't give your argument the authority that you think it does. You come off as dishonest or at best willfully ignorant. Approval of Democrats handling of DACA is only a useful statistic in regard to the shutdown if you had a trend line with approval before and after the shutdown. A single data point is meaningless. You really shouldn't be making conclusions off a single poll either.
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Jan 25, 2018 19:19
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https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/956507441306525696 https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/956532180125134848
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Jan 25, 2018 19:20
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https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/21/republicans-question-gov-reynolds-plan-cut-10-million-medicaid/1052041001/ I can not wait for Reynolds to get reelected.
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Jan 25, 2018 19:24
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: https://twitter.com/sanfranciscoian/status/956577681071489026?s=09 Hall of fame.
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Jan 25, 2018 19:29
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Ytlaya posted:I don't think it's an emotional attachment to the politicians so much as a strong feeling of irritation and distaste towards the left that prompts them to take the opposing position to whatever seems to be the dominant leftist narrative. In their minds, leftists are basically a stereotype; maybe they imagine the poster as a white neckbeard, or maybe they imagine them as a person with a Che shirt, but the key point is that they "know" that the person they're engaging with is dumb and ignorant and probably also a bigot. Eh, I dunno. I'm drawing from my own past experience as a former obnoxiously stubborn centrist, and I know for me, it was an emotional attachment. I wanted so desperately to believe that someone in the Democratic Party knew what they were doing, that they were playing the long con, and that they would magically pull a victory out of their collective asses that would shock everyone. Then everything would be all right. This turned out to not be a realistic assessment. So to some extent, I can understand centrists' mindset. That said, I don't think I would have ever put my faith in Schumer. I've given him the benefit of the doubt as minority leader so far, but boy oh boy. The fact that anybody can truly bring themselves to believe that he's in control of this situation is mind-boggling to me.
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Jan 25, 2018 19:58
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https://twitter.com/KrangTNelson/status/956599261688487936
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Jan 25, 2018 20:01
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Majorian posted:That said, I don't think I would have ever put my faith in Schumer. I've given him the benefit of the doubt as minority leader so far, but boy oh boy. The fact that anybody can truly bring themselves to believe that he's in control of this situation is mind-boggling to me. If that's your MO you're not really a political party anymore.
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Jan 25, 2018 20:02
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Joy Ann Reid, featuring dumb terrible poo poo on her show? Well this is off-brand! 
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Jan 25, 2018 20:02
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Majorian posted:Eh, I dunno. I'm drawing from my own past experience as a former obnoxiously stubborn centrist, and I know for me, it was an emotional attachment. I wanted so desperately to believe that someone in the Democratic Party knew what they were doing, that they were playing the long con, and that they would magically pull a victory out of their collective asses that would shock everyone. Then everything would be all right. This turned out to not be a realistic assessment. So to some extent, I can understand centrists' mindset. The thing is that it's not like the GOP are master politicians constantly outfoxing the clueless democrats - it's just that the game the GOP are playing is easier. All they need to do is dig in their heels and do nothing because they know they don't lose votes when poo poo goes wrong; the Dems are the ones that consistently have to work just to get people out to the polls. If everyone voted every election, the Republicans would likely get crushed, but when people don't vote for whatever reason (either from Republican suppression efforts or just plain "don't like either choice enough to care"), the Republicans consistently show better numbers, because their base is more reliable.
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Jan 25, 2018 20:07
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The GOP is good at what they claim they will do, loving over their base's enemies and cutting taxes. The Democrats have a problem where they have no real message other than "we can't really do much FOR you but we can protect you from the Republicans" and as this Dreamer situation is showing they can't even do that. It's hard to motivate your base to come out and vote consistently when you make it clear you are much more interested in your own job and your paycheck after you leave office than anything resembling helping the communities that elected you. The Democrats had an huge 59 seat majority in the Senate in 2009 and allowed the filibuster and a few bad dems to be the excuse for why they couldn't do anything and were shocked as people lost interest in supporting them throughout Obama's two terms until they had no real credibility when Hillary ran. Despite what the Democratic leadership thinks absolutely no one gives a poo poo about bipartisan compromises so it's not surprising they can't consistently get people to the polls.
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Jan 25, 2018 20:23
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JeffersonClay posted:Do you intend to do any of the legwork to try and support this conjecture? First off, I specifically said your second statistic was relevant and supported your point. And I said that the first may or may not depending upon how it compares with general approval (which you supplied in this post). I never said your conclusions were wrong, just that the first statistic by itself needed extra information in order to suggest what you said it suggested.
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Jan 25, 2018 20:23
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https://twitter.com/Slate/status/956583027177607168 Collaborators.
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Jan 25, 2018 20:40
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