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Icochet
Mar 18, 2008

I have a very small TV. Don't make fun of it! Please don't shame it like that~

Grimey Drawer
There's no way those towels even work. They make you more wet and give you psoriasis

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Dr. Quarex
Apr 18, 2003

I'M A BIG DORK WHO POSTS TOO MUCH ABOUT CONVENTIONS LOOK AT THIS

TOVA TOVA TOVA
I understand that resources are finite but I really wish I understood how 9 months of war in a single country was depleting the entire Western world's military stockpiles

I realize it is just the stuff they are willing to part with, but it still makes no sense in the world where all we spend money on is killing people

Butterfly Valley
Apr 19, 2007

I am a spectacularly bad poster and everyone in the Schadenfreude thread hates my guts.

Dr. Quarex posted:

I understand that resources are finite but I really wish I understood how 9 months of war in a single country was depleting the entire Western world's military stockpiles

I realize it is just the stuff they are willing to part with, but it still makes no sense in the world where all we spend money on is killing people

'Willing/able to part with' covers a minority of most Western military's stockpiles, I would wager, for a number of reasons:

- nothing too recent because of issues with training, expense, incompatibility, perceived lethality and effectiveness, not wanting Russia to get their hands on anything particularly modern to inspect, not wanting to seriously deplete strength of own forces
- not so old as to be ineffective. must be compatible with Ukraine's existing systems, or easy and quick to train them up on.
- actually exist, as most nations would sell or scrap their obsolete gear

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Dr. Quarex posted:

I understand that resources are finite but I really wish I understood how 9 months of war in a single country was depleting the entire Western world's military stockpiles

I realize it is just the stuff they are willing to part with, but it still makes no sense in the world where all we spend money on is killing people

The intensity of the artillery shelling is crazy. Like beyond what anyone thought would be required.

The US in particular has stocked with the idea that they would establish air supremacy right away and artillery would be a minor part of any conflict. That isn't the case here.

An article on the subject from Nov 7 - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/russia-ukraine-war-ammo-rcna56210

quote:

Russia and Ukraine are burning through artillery shells and other weapons and ammunition at a rate not seen since the Korean War, officials said, and will need to restock during the long winter to come.

Russia is firing a staggering 20,000 artillery rounds per day, a senior U.S. defense official estimated, while Ukraine is firing from 4,000 to 7,000 rounds daily.

Barudak
May 7, 2007

Can't make Paschendale 2 without a lot of shells

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

Dr. Quarex posted:

I understand that resources are finite but I really wish I understood how 9 months of war in a single country was depleting the entire Western world's military stockpiles

I realize it is just the stuff they are willing to part with, but it still makes no sense in the world where all we spend money on is killing people

The west just fights wars in a different way. It's like asking for pikes and crossbow bolts from someone who relies on cavalry and longbows.

Power Khan
Aug 20, 2011

by Fritz the Horse

Dr. Quarex posted:

I understand that resources are finite but I really wish I understood how 9 months of war in a single country was depleting the entire Western world's military stockpiles

I realize it is just the stuff they are willing to part with, but it still makes no sense in the world where all we spend money on is killing people

I guess we rely on bigly bombs dropped from all sorts of planes to crater the target, so you're never in the situation of being dependent on weeklong artillery duels that eat thousands of rounds a day or shoot & scoot mortars.

We'd flatten the complete airdefense in a few days and after that there's airpower running wild on any target that pops up until nothing worth hitting is left. Ground is for mopping up the shellshocked remains or CQC.

Something like this. Remember that this was ~20 years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxRgfBXn6Mg

Karma Comedian
Feb 2, 2012

Power Khan posted:

I guess we rely on bigly bombs dropped from all sorts of planes to crater the target, so you're never in the situation of being dependent on weeklong artillery duels that eat thousands of rounds a day or shoot & scoot mortars.

We'd flatten the complete airdefense in a few days and after that there's airpower running wild on any target that pops up until nothing worth hitting is left. Ground is for mopping up the shellshocked remains or CQC.

Something like this. Remember that this was ~20 years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxRgfBXn6Mg

That air operation was logistically incredible and absolutely terrifying.


Mobiks grabbing essential combat supplies!
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1597237291235565569?t=mW_FaxUXQh_VmnBk-xIZcA&s=19

Edit: powerful explosions reported in Chaplynka, which the AFU has been hitting all weekend
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1597258968010698752?t=wJjBbHIZAGjNdLOYXaUC6g&s=19

Karma Comedian fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Nov 28, 2022

Borscht
Jun 4, 2011

The Francis Baconator

Karma Comedian
Feb 2, 2012

Lots of videos from Bakhmut today amid rumors of yet another fresh push from Wagner. Here's a video of some of the destruction in the city. I didn't see any bodies but I haven't scrolled this accounts timeline.

https://twitter.com/Brave_spirit81/status/1597263145403154433?t=vO_EQcLCL6M4t27s51nLSg&s=19

sigher
Apr 22, 2008

My guiding Moonlight...



Skim Milk posted:

“where you at?!”

"We outside!... in the freezing cold, please help."

So when does all this poo poo end, what's the most realistic way that this ends? Does Russia just slowly sweep everything over for a long time or does someone come in and end this?

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
I like this ISW report that can be summed up as 'Russia fortifying lines along roadways only, unaware you can also attack traversing fields'
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-27

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

sigher posted:

"We outside!... in the freezing cold, please help."

So when does all this poo poo end, what's the most realistic way that this ends? Does Russia just slowly sweep everything over for a long time or does someone come in and end this?

The most likely course right now is the west continuing to supply Ukraine and they push the Russian forces back to the 2014 border. Russia grifted away their victory over the past 20 years. As for how long it will take, nobody knows. You can bet that the 2024 elections in the US will be a big determining factor in the development of operations in the war since the single biggest influencer for Ukraine is the shipments of western aid and if the chuds get the White House back, lol

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

KitConstantine posted:

The intensity of the artillery shelling is crazy. Like beyond what anyone thought would be required.

The US in particular has stocked with the idea that they would establish air supremacy right away and artillery would be a minor part of any conflict. That isn't the case here.

An article on the subject from Nov 7 - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/russia-ukraine-war-ammo-rcna56210

I wonder if at any point that Russia runs severely low on shells if they'd risk bringing in strategic bombers in?

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:

I like this ISW report that can be summed up as 'Russia fortifying lines along roadways only, unaware you can also attack traversing fields'
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-27

Here's some of the photos and a link to the twitter summary too -
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1597140497394327553?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
and a video version:
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1597025051668516864?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
and another video from Bahkmut showing residents and homes :(
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1597252854934564865?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
Reports that Russia is building up to another push in Pavlivka as well - not sure if they have the forces for two offensives?
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1596941456123392000?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1596941459584086016?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
The conditions in the trenches - imagine if you were a Russian soldier and couldn't rotate out
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1596595121973530624?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
Bunch of ministers came to Kyiv
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1597198676484853760?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
Old video I hadn't seen before of one of the helicopter resupply missions to Azovstal
https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1562551599825702912?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
The British Citizen who was captured by Russia in Mariupol did an interview discussing what it was like to fight there - audio, no transcript, haven't listened myself yet. Link:https://mwi.usma.edu/a-firsthand-account-of-the-battle-of-mariupol/
https://twitter.com/WarInstitute/status/1597202395137773579?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
Meanwhile on Russian TV
https://twitter.com/Prune602/status/1597095223179456512?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ

Rev. Bleech_
Oct 19, 2004

~OKAY, WE'LL DRINK TO OUR LEGS!~

Power Khan posted:

Something like this. Remember that this was ~20 years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxRgfBXn6Mg

lmbo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7HOOLd_Sto

Ups_rail
Dec 8, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:

I wonder if at any point that Russia runs severely low on shells if they'd risk bringing in strategic bombers in?

no, this war is weird neither side has air superiority. Normal thats the first thing you do.

Vampire Panties
Apr 18, 2001
nposter
Nap Ghost

Dr. Quarex posted:

I understand that resources are finite but I really wish I understood how 9 months of war in a single country was depleting the entire Western world's military stockpiles

I realize it is just the stuff they are willing to part with, but it still makes no sense in the world where all we spend money on is killing people

A lot of other posters itt have made great points, but one thing to add:

Russia has literally thrown away unbelieveable amounts of vehicles, specifically tanks and APCs because of Keystone Konscript antics. Ignoring the grift of eggcrate ERA, missing night vision, etc. Russian troops obviously have no idea how to fight in armored combat. All of the NLAW/Javelin trickshot videos are partially because they're very effective weapons, but also partially because most of the people driving in those videos are loving idiots. Oryx the tallyman has the numbers, but Russia has lost mind-boggling numbers of tanks trying to cross a river

The US doesn't fight this way, but as the other supposedly-comparable armed force, a performance with even half as many losses would be career-ending/criminal charges for most of the Army / Armored Cav.

For example, the US has lost <100 Abrams across its service life

Oryx the Tallyman says Russia has lost 1500 tanks 525 captured!!!! :lol::laffo:

A Russian 1500 tank engagement is supposed to be the end of the world, Clancychat, A10s futilely brrrring the Fulda gap to stop the Commie hordes. Instead Poot Poot made an oops and gave Ukrainian farmers more tanks than UK and Germany combined

Power Khan
Aug 20, 2011

by Fritz the Horse
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1597293303640518657

Ups_rail
Dec 8, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

Dr. Quarex posted:

I realize it is just the stuff they are willing to part with, but it still makes no sense in the world where all we bspend money on is killing people

So when the soviet union failed. The western EU powers didnt really need to maintain such a huge military so they cut back. That perun youtube dude called it a "peace dividend"

On the US side 20 years of war, plus alot of military stuff left in Afghanistan.

Also the US military moved to a new rifle round. (I personally think its just grifting for the MIC) So we have a fun situation where the new rifles are made yet but also why produce more 223, when its gonna be phased out.

finally like kit said, you can spend billions on a battle ship, air craft carriers, fighters etc. Which make spending seem high but then not really have a deep stockpile of shells or stinger missles.

hell this perun video about polands military build up is a fun watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrbaAKZfjwg

Jonny Nox
Apr 26, 2008




Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:

I wonder if at any point that Russia runs severely low on shells if they'd risk bringing in strategic bombers in?

TU-95s send missiles into Ukrainian infrastructure every day. They’re already in.

Zopotantor
Feb 24, 2013

...und ist er drin dann lassen wir ihn niemals wieder raus...

Vampire Panties posted:

Oryx the Tallyman says Russia has lost 1500 tanks 525 captured!!!! :lol::laffo:

A Russian 1500 tank engagement is supposed to be the end of the world, Clancychat, A10s futilely brrrring the Fulda gap to stop the Commie hordes. Instead Poot Poot made an oops and gave Ukrainian farmers more tanks than UK and Germany combined

You obviously don't understand deep Russian strategy. Any moment now the West will recognise that the Russian army is no longer the enemy to be feared, but that the Ukrainian army now is. Then they will offer to crush the menace together.

Humbug Scoolbus
Apr 25, 2008

The scarlet letter was her passport into regions where other women dared not tread. Shame, Despair, Solitude! These had been her teachers, stern and wild ones, and they had made her strong, but taught her much amiss.
Clapping Larry
Article on The Daily Beast on how the US intelligence services screwed up on the Russian Invasion

https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-is-how-the-us-totally-misjudged-the-war-in-ukraine?ref=home

Ups_rail
Dec 8, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

Humbug Scoolbus posted:

Article on The Daily Beast on how the US intelligence services screwed up on the Russian Invasion

https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-is-how-the-us-totally-misjudged-the-war-in-ukraine?ref=home

from the article

quote:

“I, along with many other people, misjudged the Russian military capabilities before this war began. I thought that they were much better prepared for a war like this,” retired U.S. Army Brigadier General Kevin Ryan said in an interview. “This is a high-intensity war that they hoped would be over soon.”

quote:

One fundamental problem for Russia was that it has failed to achieve air superiority in Ukraine, leaving its troops open to attack, Pryce said. “Even if they took an airfield, they didn’t provide air support to a very light unit, and then that unit got decimated,” he added.

Power Khan
Aug 20, 2011

by Fritz the Horse
Did this guy live in the same house as the others?

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1597276418290745346

3D Megadoodoo
Nov 25, 2010

Power Khan posted:

Did this guy live in the same house as the others?

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1597276418290745346

The idea that a Russian spy abroad would not deal drugs is childish.

I mean I would.

Strategic Tea
Sep 1, 2012

Spies would never ever get involved with the drug trade that's just completely absurd :nsa:

Vampire Panties
Apr 18, 2001
nposter
Nap Ghost
I kinda think all spies are funded by drugs


Strategic Tea posted:

Spies would never ever get involved with the drug trade that's just completely absurd :nsa:

:haibrower:

Icochet
Mar 18, 2008

I have a very small TV. Don't make fun of it! Please don't shame it like that~

Grimey Drawer
FSB has the worst weed

Draadnagel
Jul 16, 2011

..zoekend naar draadnagels bij laag tij.
If the russians need to bring their own drugs into the Netherlands then they're even more incompetent than we thought. Support your locals.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

3D Megadoodoo posted:

The idea that a Russian spy abroad would not deal drugs is childish.

I mean I would.

Nah Russia made up the crime to try to get Brazil to extradite him back to Russia - Grozev did a thread that goes into a few details on how poorly they faked up the charges
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1597286335039311874?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1597290040400707584?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
There's more in the article obviously

Also the article title is "Moscow's Mule" which is p good -https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/11/28/moscows-mule-how-russia-rewrote-a-narcotics-case-to-get-its-spy-back/

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Barudak posted:

Can't make Paschendale 2 without a lot of shells

Legit amazed that when I teach WW1 later this school year that I can basically use Bakhmut footage to show them HD live use recreations of trench lyfe.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Grape posted:

Legit amazed that when I teach WW1 later this school year that I can basically use Bakhmut footage to show them HD live use recreations of trench lyfe.


Grooming children to fight in the donbass

Tsk tsk

Dr. Quarex
Apr 18, 2003

I'M A BIG DORK WHO POSTS TOO MUCH ABOUT CONVENTIONS LOOK AT THIS

TOVA TOVA TOVA
Thanks for all the good responses to my question about how in the world they are shooting so many bangbangs over there that they are running low on weapon stockpiles. I am definitely prepared to make very slightly more informed posts on the subject now

Speaking of informed posts, I was pretty excited to see my old doctoral studies professor quoted in the "why did we not know Russia sucked" Daily Beast article. It also brings back fond memories of the story he told us about defending his dissertation on Soviet military bureaucracy a few months into 1992, which I will leave without comment so you can chuckle or not per your preference

Though that did lead me to wonder if there was a market for an academic journal for publishing obsolete research. You never know!

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

This is a wild photo
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1597328970818912256?s=20&t=xz3Npcju4p7M1qlSY5P2tQ
Yes those are T62s covered in ERA

Also for those who liked the daily beast article here's another publication on why the west misjudged the Ukrainians so badly
https://twitter.com/ovakiv/status/1596887834182520833?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
and a change of tune from Germany
https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1597197987708817408?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
To close - Russia manipulating car manufacturing stats
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1597206934553124865?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.


Over half a year late to the party but glad they finally made it.

Outrail
Jan 4, 2009

www.sapphicrobotica.com
:roboluv: :love: :roboluv:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLPNe1rscJs

Alan Smithee posted:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1597142569011798017

man that Russian blood money inflation keeps getting worse and worse

thanks Joe Babushka

'To dry your tears'

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Oldish but now making more sense
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1592839572060536832

Rather than a complaint, perhaps Ukraine's preparation along the Belarus border is a convenience for Luka? It's not a complaint, it's an excuse. "Sorry, really wish I could but it's too late, it's impenetrable."

Power Khan
Aug 20, 2011

by Fritz the Horse

Dr. Quarex posted:

Thanks for all the good responses to my question about how in the world they are shooting so many bangbangs over there that they are running low on weapon stockpiles. I am definitely prepared to make very slightly more informed posts on the subject now

Speaking of informed posts, I was pretty excited to see my old doctoral studies professor quoted in the "why did we not know Russia sucked" Daily Beast article. It also brings back fond memories of the story he told us about defending his dissertation on Soviet military bureaucracy a few months into 1992, which I will leave without comment so you can chuckle or not per your preference

Though that did lead me to wonder if there was a market for an academic journal for publishing obsolete research. You never know!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfB3KTb-G8Y

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Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

KitConstantine posted:

.....
Also for those who liked the daily beast article here's another publication on why the west misjudged the Ukrainians so badly
https://twitter.com/ovakiv/status/1596887834182520833?s=20&t=IA2INoMi4DxEbaGr0d8vcQ
...

Michael Kofman certainly changed his tune, wonder what caused his epiphany?

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