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DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

I figured if there was a small chance the threads might close and I am on a gambling lockdown I might as well make another thread.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3840184

fuckin cool. thank you, love reading these

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DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

5k on Holloway at +300

finally some good news. good to have you back jase

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

5k on stipe -240

5k on Stipe to win by tko +160

1k on Stipe to win by submission +1500 because I love a longshot

i feel like the first one is bad odds, the second one is really good odds, and the third one is definitely a longshot

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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Skip My Posts posted:

Could rock him and get a choke or somethin. Never know

maybe it's just because the only times he's lost are from getting rocked, but I just have a hard time picturing stipe submitting him or decisioning him. i dunno though

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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I.N.R.I posted:

tyvm. i'll bet £20, essentially my entire life savings, on him to submit reyes at 11:1 i think .. cos like, thats probably what he will do.

I'll be rooting for that to happen. and then for the stupid pussy thing so it's a pyrrhic victory

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

Wanna borrow $300?

owns

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

10k on Gustafsson at +225. I hate Jon jones more than any other fighter so this is out of pure spite for that shitbag of a human being.

i don't think that's a bad bet, but i was hoping the odds would go to +300 before i was gonna bet on him. god speed

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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spb posted:

Any good bets to make?

I think Condit is a good bet. i would bet him up to like -175, and he's at +155 right now. chiesa is moving up a class and i think Condit is still really good. he could just get layed on for three rounds but I'm not sure Chiesa will be able to do that.

mendes at -155 i think could be good. it's a big step up for volkanovski and they're the same size, so chad might be able to take him down if needed.

cyborg at -255 is fairly well set, but i'd put her at -300, so there's a little value there. i think she'll KO nunes.

bj penn is +415 against ryan hall. if hall tries to grapple with him he might get surprised. i think this may be a winnable fight for BJ, but that's probably pure hope. i would bet him down to +200.

i haven't looked at any of the rounds/KOs yet, but i'll probably put some money on those four + gus for favoritism and solidarity with jase

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

gently caress he is at + 256 right now and it’s so tempting to throw another 10k at that price. I just won 20k a few weeks ago collecting my over bet on Browns wins so it would completely negate that win. Haven’t even touched that money yet and I’m thinking about blowing it.


But it’s what I live for using the house money to try for a big hit. I guess the only way to decide is to finish this bottle of scotch and let nature take its course. I’ll wake up sometime tomorrow and know what I decided.

was gonna ask you if you've been cleaning up on the Browns this season, good poo poo

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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rip bj

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

I think Condit is a good bet. i would bet him up to like -175, and he's at +155 right now. chiesa is moving up a class and i think Condit is still really good. he could just get layed on for three rounds but I'm not sure Chiesa will be able to do that.

mendes at -155 i think could be good. it's a big step up for volkanovski and they're the same size, so chad might be able to take him down if needed.

cyborg at -255 is fairly well set, but i'd put her at -300, so there's a little value there. i think she'll KO nunes.

bj penn is +415 against ryan hall. if hall tries to grapple with him he might get surprised. i think this may be a winnable fight for BJ, but that's probably pure hope. i would bet him down to +200.

i haven't looked at any of the rounds/KOs yet, but i'll probably put some money on those four + gus for favoritism and solidarity with jase

folks, i may be losing some money tonight

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

folks, i may be losing some money tonight

take my betting advice, please,

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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rare Magic card l00k posted:

DO YALL WANT A LOSS

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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Bet On MMA

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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STONE COLD 64 posted:

a guy at my book hit an 8 teamer off last night's ufc. $40 to collect $5,300. y o w z a.

woof that's nice

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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hindsight is hindsight but drat i was traveling and didn't realize cowboy was a dog. that's a really good bet. i wouldn't have bet on cejudo. you're a good man, jase1

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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blessed story, you deserve it Jase

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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time for my dumb loving picks:

Lawler at +225 seems good? i didn't like the vibe at weigh-ins, but i'm not sure askren has proved himself enough to be that big of a favorite

Garbrandt at -155 is good. he's wrecked everyone but TJ and TJ is very good.

betting diego at +190 is a complete homer pick. diego's mug game looked good this week

bovada's giving -175 to tyson and +145 to usman. that seems right on.

stephens at +210 seems like good odds for a really good puncher's chance. zabit seems like he could start trading and lose that battle.

smith at +550 seems like super rarely good. i don't think he takes it more than 20% of the time.

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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I.N.R.I posted:

id take tyron at -175. well, im not going to though.

that's like what, 65 percent or something? you think woodley wins more often than that? usman seems like he's good, but i always underestimate tyron.

e: also, make the bet

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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HamsterPolice posted:

Askren is seriously good and people aren't respecting him enough if they're taking the other side of this bet only on the reason that Askren hasn't fought Quality People.

And I'm not sure about Cody, I don't think think he's getting better.

i'm not sure he needs to get better. he lost two fights to TJ, demolished everyone else, and even dropped TJ in their fights. i think he's still really good

I.N.R.I posted:

usman is good for sure. i think woodley is too strong though. anyway, since i showed my rear end, i'll put small one on woodley to win by decision.

that's the poo poo

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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G-Hawk posted:

i actually took all of these(including woodley) except i got better odds. +235, -150, +210, -150 +225, +600.

that's nice. i think lawler, smith, garbrandt, and stephens are all really good value, even better at those

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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sorry for goading you inri. grats jase!

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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i don't have an opinion on any of the undercard fights but I think Poirier at +165 is good. Holloway can get hit a lot and Poirier has good power. for reasons i can't fully explain I think he's a good style matchup against Max.

Gastelum at +150 is nuts to me, i think he's a clear favorite and i would have bet him down to -200.

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

I have a shitload of money on the rockets tonight so if that comes through I will be making several bets tomorrow the ufc card. What does everyone like/dislike?

betting on BJ penn at +450 is the true courageous choice

i can't make up my mind on cannonier at -145 or silva at +115. i can talk myself into both of those being good bets so pick your favorite

i like rose at +115 a lot, i don't think andrade can wrestle or strike with her for 5 rounds

aldo at -145 looks good to me, he's still really really good

correia at +270 seems like crazy value based on records and opponents but i don't really know poo poo about aldana

don't really have strong feelings on anything else except for quiroz at +650 since i highly doubt lines for mostly unknown young b-leaguers are appropriately set

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

betting on BJ penn at +450 is the true courageous choice

i can't make up my mind on cannonier at -145 or silva at +115. i can talk myself into both of those being good bets so pick your favorite

i like rose at +115 a lot, i don't think andrade can wrestle or strike with her for 5 rounds

aldo at -145 looks good to me, he's still really really good

correia at +270 seems like crazy value based on records and opponents but i don't really know poo poo about aldana

don't really have strong feelings on anything else except for quiroz at +650 since i highly doubt lines for mostly unknown young b-leaguers are appropriately set

take my advice, please

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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G-Hawk posted:

hell, same

goondolences brother! cherry on top of the rockets :'(

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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nice jase

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

Holy poo poo! In Florida where the gently caress have I been. How did I not know this?

Alright I will be betting at least 5k in every fight. I will post all my picks here.

niko price at +225
jeremy stephens at +215
waterson at +125

all live dogs imo. but please ignore me, i like seeing you win

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

Here is what I have so far.

5k on Cruz
5k on Ferguson
5k on De Castor
5k on Stephens

i will never bet against tony and betting against hardy is the lord's work, so i'm rootin hard jase

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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yeah that seems like a solid bet. jair has a ton more experience and is sneaky fast for a heavy

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase I'm glad we could contribute. hopefully pool keeps going well brother

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

No worries all! That fight was the worst.

Next week I will be betting the card as well.

Megan Anderson at +700 is my dream bet and I know she will get her face smashed in but fuckkkkk do I love those odds.

i don't mind those odds. tempting for sure. there's not many ladies with legit puncher's chances but megan is long and has decent pop.

nunes has shown a propensity to point fight if she's not feeling her pressure game, and that might not be as good a fall back with Megan's reach.

anyway i just helped you lose 5k but i support you as ever

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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JOHN CENA posted:

i am not a fan of the odds for this saturdays card. just real unattractive.

i lik rakic at -160, megan at-650 or -700, benavidez at +110, cruz at +105, and song yadong at -150.

not sure i feel any of those are particularly off aside from megan Anderson, who as mentioned i think is big long and has pop.

i think cruz and Joe B could end up being smart bets but i think the lines are probably good given the uncertainty. joe B as a dog seems a bit weird to me.

please quote this when i miscall every single one of these

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

2k on Kyler Phillips @+125
2k on Megan Anderson @+600
5k on Adesanya @-235

the izzy bet i'm coming to like more. i'm not sure Jan knocks him out in the first two, and I think there's a good chance Izzy starts picking him apart as it goes on.

love the Megan bet. not getting +700 anymore?

really not sure about the Kyler Phillips bet. i don't know much about him, but i do like Yadong quite a bit and was surprised to see him so close to even to a relative newcomer. i think the UFC is trying to build him as a future China star so that's also weighing in for me. they might see Phillips as a good matchup for him

CommonShore posted:

Lots of money must be coming in on Anderson because she was running beyond 800 on the weekend and beyond 700 yesterday.

yeah i think i bet her down to +500 or +550. my heart says she's a good bet down to like +450 but i think i'm too much of a coward to do that if it got to it.

e:

with a 3-inch reach advantage at a bigger weight. nunes has deceptively long punches, but still

DO YALL WANT A BOXC fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Mar 5, 2021

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

Just because I like that picture I am gonna throw another 2k on Megan @+600

goddamn i'm gonna throw up watching this tomorrow knowing that lol

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

Just because I like that picture I am gonna throw another 2k on Megan @+600

gently caress it, betting's legal online in tennessee now so back on the wagon, i'm sweatin with ya except i can't play pool

$3 on cruz at +110
$5 on benavidez at +110
$5 on yadong at -152 (gotta go against ya here bud)
$10 on izzy at -235
$50 on megan at +650
$2 on parlay of makhachev by decision -110, megan by decision +1800, and izzy by ko/tko/dq in round 2 at +625 to win $526

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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G-Hawk posted:

cruz+110
adesanya by decision+275
nunes by decision+450

i think i want to take sterling too i probably will later but cant really justify it

despite me being really bullish on Megan i really like that nunes bet. i can for sure see that happening in a close match like she did to valentina

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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yeah nice. yadong is good, kyler looked better. grats jase

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

$3 on cruz at +110
$5 on benavidez at +110
$5 on yadong at -152 (gotta go against ya here bud)
$10 on izzy at -235
$50 on megan at +650
$2 on parlay of makhachev by decision -110, megan by decision +1800, and izzy by ko/tko/dq in round 2 at +625 to win $526

still feeling good about izzy/megan, i think

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DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

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jase1 posted:

What a loving bad break.

big rip dude, hard to see Yan not winning that one outside of ref fuckery from where it was

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