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SlothfulCobra posted:What's notable about all this though, is that while most of the Republicans' plans for the House are going to be impotent things that can't beat the president or senate, this committee might actually be able to do something because Joe Biden has also made moves against China. I don't really see much rhetoric from Democrats about China, but there's definitely some kind of general agreement there, although not for the same reasons. This was also the case across both the Obama and Trump administrations. The China Commission has been around for a while. There's no partisanship here. The largest force against this has usually been from private industry, who led the offshoring to China to begin with, and particularly their lobbyists; after covid, Xi, and two decades of not-so-nice reciprocity (for example, banning Google and other US tech), the chickens have come home to roost. China on the other hand, is trying their best to repair this now—see: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/china-s-foreign-minister-says-deeply-impressed-with-americans I don't think reversing Wolf Warrior diplomacy is going to work, to be honest. Everyone sees through this.
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Jan 8, 2023 20:47
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In conciliatory moves made by Beijing? https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1612462310232305664
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Jan 9, 2023 18:00
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I suppose the question is, 'does Boundary and Ocean Affairs own South China Sea policy?'
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Jan 9, 2023 20:00
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Alchenar posted:I suppose the question is, 'does Boundary and Ocean Affairs own South China Sea policy?' Sounds like a great setup for a "People's Boundary and Ocean Affairs North China Sea's South China Sea Policy"
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Jan 9, 2023 20:07
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A retreat to core interests 中国核心利益 is a kind of backing down from wolf warrioring/telling the China Story, noting that the SCS has been presented as a core interest for a while now It's still the case that China has too many core interests, but this is not a novel observation, and in any case China is not quite so desperate as to be willing to put those on the chopping block just yet
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Jan 9, 2023 20:32
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Those casualties look way too low (for both sides) given the number of ships they project being sunk. https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-game-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
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Jan 10, 2023 00:30
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Charlz Guybon posted:Those casualties look way too low (for both sides) given the number of ships they project being sunk. Seems clearly they're referring to ground troops? For Sailors you can't really know because crews from sunk ships can be rescued.
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Jan 10, 2023 03:09
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Charlz Guybon posted:Those casualties look way too low (for both sides) given the number of ships they project being sunk. I'm really curious if the economic fallout was also a part of the wargame. I only read the CNN article and it wasn't mentioned. I'm no expert on economics but it sounds like the 2 biggest economies in the world, who are also major trading partners, if they were to go to war against each other would throw each other's economies off a cliff. Not to mention Taiwans economy and the fact that they are the biggest producer of microprocessors for the world. Like I hope the "economic MAD" of a China Taiwan war would be so great that it will prevent China from ever starting it.
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Jan 10, 2023 09:09
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Charliegrs posted:I'm really curious if the economic fallout was also a part of the wargame. I only read the CNN article and it wasn't mentioned. I'm no expert on economics but it sounds like the 2 biggest economies in the world, who are also major trading partners, if they were to go to war against each other would throw each other's economies off a cliff. Not to mention Taiwans economy and the fact that they are the biggest producer of microprocessors for the world. Like I hope the "economic MAD" of a China Taiwan war would be so great that it will prevent China from ever starting it. Japan (economy #3) is also directly involved. People said that about Germany and France in 1910. They said it about Russia with regards to the EU and how they wouldn't attack Ukraine as recently as last February. Economics won't stop war from happening, because from the birth of agriculture to the second industrial revolution, war was economically much more beneficial than internal development by orders of magnitude. All world cultures and states operated under this selective pressure for 500 generations and were shaped by this. This is no longer true, but all of our state and cultural institutions were developed when it was true. It's gonna take a long long time before they adapt to the change in circumstances. Until then, war is still on the menu. Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 10:30 on Jan 10, 2023 |
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Jan 10, 2023 10:19
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The retaliation starts. China has decided to stop issuing short-term visas to South Koreans in response to ROK's testing requirements for (all) travellers from China.
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Jan 10, 2023 10:29
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There's an observation to the effect that both the GHWB-era Republicans on the US side, and the Jiang/Hu-era neoliberals on the Chinese side, gambled that economic integration would bring China/Taiwan obediently into the political sphere of the US/China respectively, since the elites of China/Taiwan would obviously benefit from and hence endorse continued political integration into the world-system of the dominant partner as well. (I can't remember where I came across this observation, which is a pity) Neither forecast came true, in the event
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Jan 10, 2023 10:33
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Raenir Salazar posted:Seems clearly they're referring to ground troops? For Sailors you can't really know because crews from sunk ships can be rescued. Presumably a few of the soldiers will be in ships.
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Jan 10, 2023 12:29
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https://twitter.com/theChinaDude/status/1612768980602871808 This being on the Russian press release but not the Chinese one https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202301/t20230110_11005078.html - indeed contradicting 不针对第三方基础之上 by naming the US - suggests some differences in interpretation...
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Jan 10, 2023 12:51
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Taiwan ramping up defense spending https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/09/taiwan-china-invasion-defense-ukraine/
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Jan 10, 2023 13:36
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/theChinaDude/status/1612768980602871808 What a statement to put out literally the same time the Chinese ambassador to Australia tries to stir the pot between Australia and Japan: quote:“If we forget history, history might repeat itself,” said Xiao Qian, Beijing’s envoy to Australia, in a rare news conference Tuesday at the Chinese Embassy in Canberra. “During the Second World War, Japan invaded Australia, bombed Darwin, killed Australians and treated Australian POWs in a way that was humanly unacceptable,” Edited to add, in the same comment: quote:“My role as ambassador from China is to promote understanding, friendship and cooperation between China and Australia. It is not my role to base myself in Canberra, while criticizing a third country,” Xiao said. “It is not my role as a Chinese ambassador to Australia to try to stop Australia from developing a normal relationship with a third country." Nav. fucked around with this message at 15:46 on Jan 10, 2023 |
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Jan 10, 2023 15:41
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Charlz Guybon posted:Japan (economy #3) is also directly involved. I think most wars are generally unprofitable to the nations involved, and even the ones that do "pay off" can take more than a generation for it to work out. It also gets complicated when you look at individuals who can grift a lot of money out of the war while still being a net loss to the government as a whole on paper. But that doesn't stop people from miscalculating or going to war for more abstract reasons. People often romanticize the few successes. And I guess maybe you could categorize successful defensive wars as "profitable" if you put a value on continued existence and independence. ronya posted:There's an observation to the effect that both the GHWB-era Republicans on the US side, and the Jiang/Hu-era neoliberals on the Chinese side, gambled that economic integration would bring China/Taiwan obediently into the political sphere of the US/China respectively, since the elites of China/Taiwan would obviously benefit from and hence endorse continued political integration into the world-system of the dominant partner as well. For the optimistic on the US's side, there was also a weird theory that economic freedom would naturally promote democratization. It's not really proven true at all. Milton Friedman was a hack when it came to politics. I think you could argue that if there's enough economic connection and freedom of movement between two countries, then does it even really matter whether they're officially separate or not? But obviously if you're in the government and see that you can't directly exert your power over an area, that's what matters more to you.
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Jan 10, 2023 16:43
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SlothfulCobra posted:I think most wars are generally unprofitable to the nations involved, and even the ones that do "pay off" can take more than a generation for it to work out. It also gets complicated when you look at individuals who can grift a lot of money out of the war while still being a net loss to the government as a whole on paper.
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Jan 11, 2023 01:19
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 https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2023/01/09/china-crematorium-covid-deaths/ (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 11, 2023 01:26
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ronya posted:A retreat to core interests 中国核心利益 is a kind of backing down from wolf warrioring/telling the China Story, noting that the SCS has been presented as a core interest for a while now FT has an article on this topic that's a good read: https://www.ft.com/content/e592033b-9e34-4e3d-ae53-17fa34c16009 https://archive.ph/6S6GS Thought this part was interesting, too Xi Jinping’s plan to reset China’s economy and win back friends posted:While Xi and Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, pledged last month to deepen bilateral ties, several Chinese officials in private conversations with the Financial Times strove to put clear daylight between Beijing and Moscow on the issue of Ukraine — a message that has been repeated to some European diplomats.
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Jan 11, 2023 04:27
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On the other hand, some might disagree: https://twitter.com/Lingling_Wei/status/1603075548422770688 I think there will be attempts across 2023 to diminish the chilly reception in Europe, but these will flounder - the prospects for vigorous BRI investment in Eastern Europe (say) are dimmer than they have been in a decade, so there is no real urgency to conveniently forget the wave of of economic retaliations that Beijing has been quick to impose regarding Taiwan
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Jan 11, 2023 05:37
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Found Ronya's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1612891083419095053 (more seriously, this is a good long thread that wraps up the points and analysis)
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Jan 11, 2023 10:04
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SlothfulCobra posted:For the optimistic on the US's side, there was also a weird theory that economic freedom would naturally promote democratization. It's not really proven true at all. Milton Friedman was a hack when it came to politics. I think the crux of that theory was a strong middle class resulting from economic freedom meant that they would naturaly move towards their own wanting of freedom and democracy. That, of course, has been disproven thoroughly now. It followed from political theory regarding the role of the intelligensia and professionals in the USSR. quote:I think you could argue that if there's enough economic connection and freedom of movement between two countries, then does it even really matter whether they're officially separate or not? But obviously if you're in the government and see that you can't directly exert your power over an area, that's what matters more to you.
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Jan 11, 2023 11:21
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i fly airplanes posted:I think the crux of that theory was a strong middle class resulting from economic freedom meant that they would naturaly move towards their own wanting of freedom and democracy. That, of course, has been disproven thoroughly now. It followed from political theory regarding the role of the intelligensia and professionals in the USSR. And it is the lack of that educated middle class that has often been pointed at as the reason democacies in South America and Africa have been unstable. Looking closer to China, one could look at the development of South Korea and Taiwan and say that the same phenomena occured there. As soon as an educated middle class developed there they demanded political power via democratic reforms. Given what the West knew at that time the bet they made was understandable.
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Jan 11, 2023 12:31
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Charlz Guybon posted:This goes far beyond the collapse of the USSR. Nearlly all autocracies in 19th and 20th centuries Europe fell once a large educated middle class developed. "Nearly all" is doing such heavy lifting that it may as well be Atlas holding up the earth. Tell me, when did Germany stop being an Autocracy? When did France? When did a whacking great chunk of eastern Europe? Could it be after a world war that leaves millions dead, or after the other world war with millions dead? The idea that "a large and educated middle class" is what moves areas away from Autocratic styles of governance is so powerfully a-historical reasoning that it may as well be made entirely out of caveats.
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Jan 11, 2023 14:30
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https://www.reuters.com/world/china/covid-wave-past-its-peak-many-parts-china-state-media-2023-01-10/ Pretty petty. Not to mention China still requires PCR tests to enter the Mainland.
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Jan 11, 2023 15:28
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ronya posted:A meditation on that point: ^ cough It's true that that the middle-class democratization thesis (in its 20th century revival form, not its classical Marxist teleology or earlier) owes heavily to Lipset and other postwar theorists of the new industrial consumer society, but it's also the case that the 'democratic forces of the center' was specifically invoked by senior American officials in the 1980s to motivate US policy toward its East Asian partners and/or allies.
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Jan 11, 2023 16:50
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https://twitter.com/GeringTuvia/status/1613516116688621572 https://twitter.com/GeringTuvia/status/1613516129489526784 (transcription error: strong then weak) my balanced/pragmatic is your capricious/fickle, of course - hence signing 25-year agreements one moment and then backing opposing territorial claims the next
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Jan 12, 2023 15:22
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https://www.state.gov/secretary-ant...s-availability/ “We’re working to deepen our cooperation across every realm – land, sea, air, and yes, space, cyber and outer." Japan and the US deepens military ties as Japan remilitarizes.
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Jan 13, 2023 02:03
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https://twitter.com/chinadaily/status/1613713454275366919 How on earth did this pass any editorial process
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Jan 13, 2023 14:13
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i fly airplanes posted:https://twitter.com/chinadaily/status/1613713454275366919 Kind of funny that someone who has never played or even seen a game of billiards in their entire life is trying to use it as a visual metaphor. It's such a horrendously mixed metaphor I don't even know what it is supposed to mean. E: And if they switched the cue ball and the 8 ball, then the metaphor would be that the US is... doing a good thing and playing properly? VVV: That's a very generous interpretation that the cartoonist has even the slightest clue how billiards/snooker/pool work. Saladman fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Jan 13, 2023 |
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Jan 13, 2023 15:15
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I believe the tight pockets an suit wearing arm means the game is snooker. The fact the US is striking the black ball with the cue is likely to symbolize they don't know how to play the game and will sink Asian peace while doing so.
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Jan 13, 2023 15:33
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Josef bugman posted:"Nearly all" is doing such heavy lifting that it may as well be Atlas holding up the earth. Tell me, when did Germany stop being an Autocracy? When did France? When did a whacking great chunk of eastern Europe? Could it be after a world war that leaves millions dead, or after the other world war with millions dead?
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Jan 13, 2023 16:32
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https://twitter.com/EmilyZFeng/status/1613288729472389121 one of the puzzles is why the middle-class element of the protest was overwhelmingly female to begin with - possibly, this is a group against which the 白衣人 mobilization of burly men to bumrush and break up rallies has poor optics observed previously even before the end was known, e.g. https://twitter.com/AMFChina/status/1603273819245928448 https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/status/1597304348559769604 in vaguely thematic news there's a minor online scandal in Yangzhou that seems solely driven by prurient interest in the woman involved, I'm sorry to say
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Jan 13, 2023 16:38
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i fly airplanes posted:https://twitter.com/chinadaily/status/1613713454275366919 it’s possible they have different notions about the sport, but who knows if this is true: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/06/chinese-players-axed-from-top-snooker-tournament-over-match-fixing-crisis.html Here are some Radio Free Asias to cleanse your palate   e: I thought I was posting in a different thread, hope y’all can have a laugh
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Jan 13, 2023 22:47
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I wouldn't call a couple of racist caricatures a palette cleanser for what is a pretty mild-mannered political cartoon...
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Jan 14, 2023 00:56
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The Monarch posted:I wouldn't call a couple of racist caricatures a palette cleanser for what is a pretty mild-mannered political cartoon... They’re produced by a Chinese pro-democracy activist named Wang Liming, aka Rebel Pepper, who lives in Washington, DC. He is paid by the US government to make these. In fact, he is the only cartoonist RFA employs. It’s possible that you are funding this activity to some degree, if you live in the US. His bonafides include substantial artistic expressions against racism in China and elsewhere throughout Asia. Here is an excerpt from his ebook published by Radio Free Asia: quote:Cutting and in-depth journalism – as practiced by RFA – empowers people with the facts. But humor and satire are also effective tools for spreading information, while at the same time packing a punch. Radio Free Asia’s resident cartoonist Wang Liming, known by his pen name Rebel Pepper, uses a sharp wit to comment on the most important issues facing East and Southeast Asia today. It sounds like he’s pretty popular with people actually impacted by oppression in China. Spice World War II posted:Pretty elaborate bit... People change. When the CCP eliminated COVID Zero I had to do a lot of thinking about where I stand. mawarannahr fucked around with this message at 06:38 on Jan 14, 2023 |
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Jan 14, 2023 02:57
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mawarannahr posted:They’re produced by a Chinese pro-democracy activist named Wang Liming, aka Rebel Pepper, who lives in Washington, DC. He is paid by the US government to make these. In fact, he is the only cartoonist RFA employs. It’s possible that you are funding this activity to some degree, if you live in the US. Pretty elaborate bit...
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Jan 14, 2023 05:58
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It sounds like he's a US funded anti-communist propagandist. Not really sure how that text shows that those cartoons aren't racist, or that he is "pretty popular" amongst Chinese people. In what thread is stuff like that posted as a palette cleanser?
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Jan 14, 2023 16:21
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I don't understand how those cartoons are racist.
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Jan 14, 2023 16:35
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The Monarch posted:It sounds like he's a US funded anti-communist propagandist. Not really sure how that text shows that those cartoons aren't racist, or that he is "pretty popular" amongst Chinese people. I'm assuming the political cartoons thread. But that being said I have some trouble seeing where the racism comes in, and I'm Taiwanese myself. Doesn't seem much more exaggerated than, say, George Bush with giant elephant ears.
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Jan 14, 2023 16:45
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