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UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Colorado's GOP House Speaker just killed 30 unrelated bills so civil unions wouldn't get a floor vote where it would almost certainly pass.
He met with the governor tonight and refused to cut a deal.
The governor's only option is calling a special session but that only allows for 1 of 30 bills to get a vote.

Amazing.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 06:18 on May 9, 2012

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UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



GOOCHY posted:

Will it play well with the electorate? Y/N

Yes?

"I support gay marriage."
I would imagine it won't hurt much because he's not reckless so it must not poll terribly.

But this should really only bother the laziest and least informed bigots who only paid attention to the word marriage.
This is a man who campaigned on a full DOMA repeal, continually (if not forcefully) opposed all anti-gay referendums, and told Justice to stop defending DOMA the second it became politically impossible (rather than super unlikely) to repeal it.


If you were opposed to marriage equality I don't know how you could have supported Obama unless you were incredibly eager to believe his tepid policy of not supporting the magic word.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 21:07 on May 9, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Amused to Death posted:

So basically they have the 1 Republican vote they need to pass it in the assembly and it's just one giant committee filibuster?
They have at least 3 and it already passed every committee.

GOP Leadership held up 30 bills to avoid a floor vote where civil unions would pass.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I just realized this is the end of assholes saying "I have the same position as the President :smug:" while acting to specifically restrict the rights of gay couples.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Nonsense posted:

This doesn't take anything away from their argument.
Except for the part where they complain about the President "manipulating LGBT families" because he endorsed marriage after the constitutional amendment passed by NC's first Republican majority in 100 years won in what was expected to be a major Republican primary.

LCR press releases are disgusting.

Check this outstanding statement from when New York failed to pass the marriage bill in 2009.

quote:

“We are deeply saddened that the Democratic Conference failed to secure the votes they promised, undermining the possibility of a credible bipartisan vote of conscience on the merits of marriage equality. Winning marriage equality in New York requires the Democrats to keep their promises, and Log Cabin will continue to work to ensure that Republicans vote their conscience when that finally happens.”
"Those lying Democrats didn't have enough votes to make Republicans comfortable enough to vote against bigotry :qq:"

e: Harry Reid is kind of for marriage equality now.
So that's 33 Senators for DOMA repeal. 27 to go. :toot:

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 02:36 on May 10, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



A Fancy 400 lbs posted:

Call me naive and idealist all you want, but timing your announcement about supporting basic human rights for maximum political impact is disgusting. A minor nuanced policy issue? Sure, go ahead and play your support for maximum timing. An issue where tons of people are having their rights violated daily? gently caress no, you need to throw your support behind it ASAP.
People can have whatever horrible motivations they like if it gets results.

Governors are now making great efforts to pass marriage laws.
The fact that it's good for their approval numbers just means it is easier to get more of them passed.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Fruity Rudy posted:

The point is that no matter what he does, Obama is always not doing enough.
This is true.
His and Senator Reed's new position had better be enough to change minds and pass marriage equality in Rhode Island in the next 30 days :argh:

Otherwise Colorado will have the last action on this until November, with a small chance of the New Jersey suit winning in the next few months.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



This thread is about marriage equality, not the President's entire record.

Here's the page for the Respect For Marriage Act in the Senate
Reed (RI) and Reid (NV) are on board so we're at 34 votes.

Collins and Snowe from Maine have supported every other LGBT legislation.
So has Lieberman but he's probably not moving on marriage.
Stabenow (MI) is in a close re-election campaign but reliable on these issues.
Not a lot of gettable votes left.

I'm not sure about most Senate candidates.
Warren (MA) and Murphy (CT) are definite yes votes.
Kaine (VA) is in favor of "equality" but won't specifically say marriage.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



If it's such a big deal make a thread about it.

Corrupt Politician posted:

My prediction on the long-term prospects for gay marriage in the US:

It seems pretty inevitable that over the next decade or so, most of the more liberal states will recognize gay marriage, but conservative states in the Great Plains and Deep South will undoubtedly hold back. Unless it's enforced federally, I don't see a state like Alabama ever moving forward, just like certain states might never have desegregated schools if the feds hadn't forced them to. Unlike racial discrimination, sexual orientation isn't protected, so it would probably take a constitutional amendment to force states to change, and that will take a long time.

So I see a semi-permanent divide in marriage-equality between liberal and conservative states that might last a generation or more. Thoughts?
This will surely be resolved by SCOTUS and not a constitutional amendment.

DOMA section 3 (federal government does not recognize same sex marriage) is gone by 2014 unless something shocking happens with the Supreme Court.

It will be a bit of a wait to get rid of section 2 (states cannot be forced to recognize same sex marriage). On the one hand there's no legitimate basis for DOMA. On the other hand SCOTUS does not like ruling against the laws of 40+ states.

When Loving was decided only 16 states had laws against interracial marriage and the Civil Rights Act had already passed. When Lawrence was decided only 14 states had sodomy laws.

I will arbitrarily says DOMA lasts twice as long as DADT so nationwide marriage equality happens in 2030.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



While not entirely equivalent to supporting the word marriage (as evidenced by Obama's support since 2011 not really mattering), 34 of 53 (64%) Senate Dems and 143 of 190 (75%) of House Dems support the Respect For Marriage Act/DOMA repeal.

This bill does not alter the marriage laws of any state, other than removing DOMA's illegal subversion of the Constitutional requirement to recognize of out of state contracts which has encouraged states to do the same.

If you are upset by Obama saying he supports the right of states to make marriage laws, please contact your representatives since there is no one in Washington working to federalize marriage laws.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 09:50 on May 10, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Echo_ posted:

I saw this in the GBS thread and thought it was worth having a discussion about.



I think it is important for the government to enact laws that gives equal status to the LGBT community, but I also understand that there might be negative consequences to the movement when there is so much focus on gay marriage in particular. I'm curious to hearing more opinions on this. Thoughts?
The President has supported ENDA (LGBT employment non-discrimination) for longer than the Respect For Marriage Act and there are more co-sponsors, including a few Republicans.
The federal legislative plan for LGBT rights has always been placed ENDA before DOMA repeal.

One of our biggest problems is that people surveyed believe federal law forbids LGBT employment discrimination. Marriage is the #1 issue because our opponents have organized 32 highly publicized votes on marriage. There is a ton of casual support that does not extend to the entire LGBT legal agenda. When Massachusetts and Connecticut finally added transpeople to their laws last year, the media ignored it, but national media will report on marriage bills before they're even close to a floor vote.

If we call and complain enough, non-discrimination laws will become expected of any Democratic legislature the same as marriage.

The complaints about the institution of marriage are ridiculous stuff that nobody cares about other than Andrew Sullivan when he gets angry about personal conflicts between activists 20 years ago.


e: Colorado special session starts Monday. So civil unions will pass next week probably. :toot:

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 22:31 on May 10, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



There is an LGBT bullying law in every state with marriage equality and almost every state with civil unions.
Almost all have LGBT housing, employment, and public accommodation protections and at a minimum employment at the state level.

If you want to complain about the lack of effort put into LGBT issues outside of marriage, you're looking at the wrong states.
There should absolutely be 100% coverage in any state that has reached the point of passing marriage or something like it but this is not a widespread failure.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Lemonus posted:

The trail to freedom started with Proposition 8: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perry_v_brown

We are going to the Supreme Court and bringing the 14th Amendment with us.

Medium term prediction: Supreme Court Case upholds same-sex marriage as a right to equal protection of the laws in all 50 states in a 6-3 decision.
The appeals court ruling was incredibly limited and I don't think SCOTUS will decide on a broader application (like Walker's) in the next year. The ruling explicitly dodges the question of whether it is ever legal to ban same sex marriage because the CA Supreme Court already decided that right existed.

Prop 8 is unique from every other ban on same sex marriage because it only served to repeal rights and the 9th Circuit ruled that was different from declining to extend them in the first place.

Another aspect only applicable to 7 other states is that California had previously granted to all rights minus the word marriage to same sex couples.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Nobody has managed to re-ban marriage. NH tried and failed horribly.

They could make a very narrow ruling that only applied to California, but there's a suit out of Nevada and there's no way to rule in their favor without having it apply to all states with civil unions.

But that could easily be in 2015 so turning civil unions into marriage wouldn't be very controversial.

e:

quote:

People who disagree on the fundamental nature of marriage can agree, at the same time, that gays and lesbians should receive essential rights and protections such as hospital visitation, adoption rights, and health and death benefits.
I'm sure social conservatives will be thrilled with this.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 05:26 on May 12, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Rhode Island gov. signed an executive order to recognize all out of state marriages.
This is great because the law used to be that anyone passing through or employed in RI had their CT/MA same sex marriage temporarily downgraded to a civil union.

The marriage and improved civil union bills are still winding through the legislature.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 22:02 on May 14, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



So Colorado turned to poo poo.

Civil union bill somehow got sent to a 4th committee where the Republicans finally managed to kill it, including one with a gay son.
Ice cold!

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Gorilla Salad posted:

I'm sorry, but that is almost painfully naive.

Bigots have no problem making little bigots in their image.

Just type "human being" or the homophobic keyword of your choice into Facebook's search by everyone and see how the next generation is perfectly fine with hating gay people.
2009


2010 and 2011


2012


Sorry for the inconsistent charts but Gallup is inconsistent with what they provide.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



ThirdPartyView posted:

So, probably the most famous Filipino in the world (as well as a top Boxer and Congressman in the Philippines), Manny Pacquiao, has been preaching fire and brimstone about gays and condemned President Obama for his 'evolution' on the topic. The shocking part? How much negative backlash I've been seeing in both articles and comments about Pacquiao's beliefs.
Apparently he didn't quote Leviticus (the original article was updated) and he's just opposed to same sex marriage.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Seems like Rhode Island is off the table for this year and the Governor's executive order to recognize out of state marriages was not a starting point but the only thing that could be done this year.

The votes are probably there and the civil union bill is wildly unpopular (only 52 licenses have been issued) and actively opposed by all LGBT groups, but nothing appears to be happening because Leadership is terrible.

The Senate President is very opposed to same sex marriage and the House Speaker is openly gay but couldn't get his poo poo together to oppose an amendment allowing Catholic hospitals to ignore civil unions



e: Didn't even take a day for Money to see this could be good PR.
Mayweather is the best.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 08:29 on May 17, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Rhode Island has some evil Senators who introduced a bill to override the Governor's order to recognize out of state marriages.

quote:

RESOLVED, By this General Assembly that the public policy of this state discountenances the marriage of same-sex couples, and that our public policy in this regard overrides any obligation of full faith and credit inasmuch as it regards a matter of paramount importance to the citizens of this state.
Sounds legit!

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



If all the recent endorsements lead to significant efforts in the fall, Maryland might not be a total disaster. :unsmith:

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



ThatsSoNotPLUR posted:

Hey everyone I had a disagreement with a friend of mine last night. Where were the first gay marriages in the US performed? She said Massachusetts, I thought it was in San Francisco.
They were nullified but San Francisco did illegally issue licenses before the Massachusetts.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Maryland Crosstabs


Support from young people is lower than average but support from everyone else is much higher.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Lambda Legal and ACLU are filing marriage suits in Illinois tomorrow.

Seems like a Dem legislature would have passed a marriage law in 2013 anyway, but this will surely move things along.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Lambda and ACLU filed in Illinois today.

Seems like a solid case because the Illinois Constitution includes specific bans against discrimination based on sex and special laws when general laws can be made applicable.

But courts can do whatever they want. V:shobon:V

quote:

"We have the kids, it's important for them to see that the relationship we're in is validated by the state"
Now everyone is using "How am I supposed to explain that to my kids?"

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



There was a lawsuit over Section 3 filed by citizens with immigrant spouses filed from New York.

I would imagine once Section 3 is gone in 2013/14 this is a non-issue.
Seems like the feds would give you a green card even if your current state doesn't recognize your marriage.


e:

quote:

the judge cited the Supreme Court’s 2003 decision striking down a Texas sodomy law. “Moral disapproval alone cannot justify legislation discriminating on this basis,"

Scalia, June 2003 posted:

If moral disapprobation of homosexual conduct is “no legitimate state interest” for purposes of proscribing that conduct...what justification could there possibly be for denying the benefits of marriage to homosexual couples exercising “[t]he liberty protected by the Constitution"
:allears:

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 21:13 on May 31, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Tomorrow the 9th Circuit will rule on taking the Prop 8 case to a 11 judge panel or not.

The plaintiffs released a fancy split timeline of how things can go.


Hopefully they refuse another hearing or once again rule in a way that only applies to California.
Anything broad will require SCOTUS to act and they are much more likely to rule like Bowers than Lawrence.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



e: ^^^ Distinguishing between repealing and declining to extend rights was more of a way to show animus and use Romer precedent. They should be distinguished.

Appealing to the Supreme Court is the right choice for the defendants.

It's another 6-12 month delay and SCOTUS affirming a right to same sex marriage is probably the least likely outcome.
This is a pretty safe bet.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 20:14 on Jun 5, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



That's a great poll in Minnesota. They are well short of the 52% needed to guarantee a majority of ballots.
If CNN's 2008 exit polls (left) are accurate, this poll oversampled the oldest voters and undersampled the youngest.
Averaging the samples gives 51% opposition.

New Prop 8 timeline. This should be over in 6 or 12 months.


I updated the OP. Nothing that hasn't been posted before, but it's sorted by state and not spread out over pages.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Another day, another case where DOMA is found unconstitutional.
Only district court though.

A widow sued the feds over estate taxes she was forced to pay because DOMA excluded her from the unlimited marriage deduction.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



That is a great speech by Newton.


ComradeCosmobot posted:

After digging into the press releases, it looks like this is another case that specifically attacks Section 3 (federal recognition). It still leaves Section 2 (state recognition) intact from the looks of the press releases.
Nobody is touching Section 2 other than maybe the Prop 8 team (AFER) and they are far more aggressive than other LGBT legal orgs.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



platzapS posted:

Opponents block Washington state gay marriage


Anyone here involved in Washington state? What's it looking like?
Feb. poll had the law being approved 50-46.
Seems like that's all the news.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Does the documentary cover the most ridiculous "victim" of same sex marriage?

quote:

A man said he failed the Massachusetts bar exam because he refused to answer a question about gay marriage, and claims in a federal lawsuit the test violated his rights and targeted his religious beliefs.
The actual question is pretty :stare: too

quote:

"Yesterday, Jane got drunk and hit (her spouse) Mary with a baseball bat, breaking Mary's leg, when she learned that Mary was having an affair with Lisa. As a result, Mary decided to end her marriage with Jane in order to live in her house with (children) Philip (and) Charles and Lisa. What are the rights of Mary and Jane?"

e: VVVV I'm not used to exam questions about drunken assault and battery but I guess it's a reasonable legal scenario.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 01:11 on Jun 10, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



News(?) about the Maine referendum.

In a new poll, a law allowing same sex marriage is supported 55-36.

WBUR is unfortunately summarizing this as 55% support for the November referendum and every other news source is parroting that.

They did not ask about the referendum or if you would actually vote for that law. They asked the text within the referendum which is a completely understandable mistake, but "Do you favor X?" is not equivalent to "Would you vote for a referendum that does X?"

For example, the final opinion poll in North Carolina showed 55% believed civil unions or same sex marriage should be legal and 55% would vote for a constitutional amendment that banned both.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Grundulum posted:

But that's not the case here, since the second part of the statement implies that not only will the person in question get off his/her rear end to vote, he/she will vote against the opinion voiced in the first part of the statement.


This is possibly closer to the truth, but I just can't imagine it swinging 10-20% of the population -- is it really the case that one out of every ten people (enough to go from 55% in favor to 55% opposed) wants to please some stranger on the phone so badly they'll answer "yes" to anything at all?
For what it's worth it, the amendment question came first and the text does not explicitly say "bans civil unions".



Then people went on to show they didn't know what it did.



But even if people did not understand what Amendment One did, the wording and ordering of questions is incredibly important and "Do you favor?" should not be summarized as "Would you vote for?"
Maybe support wouldn't erode to such a degree but they are not the same question.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Well somebody has to defend the law.

A judge will be generous in granting standing when the alternative is giving the AG the power of nullification, right?

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Illinois county clerks/Thomas More Society were granted standing.

Not a big deal. ACLU and Lambda Legal (the plaintiffs) are cool with it.

quote:

“We think their arguments have no merit, but it’s best to face them now rather than face them later on,” Knight said. “It gets us to a point where we can feel confident that we’ve won the freedom to marry statewide.”
Without any defense there was a chance the ruling would only be applicable to Cook County and that's not good.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Jul 4, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Department of Justice filed for cert in the two major DOMA Section 3 (the ban on federal recognition) cases.

I don't believe there are any practical effects other than possibly moving the Golinski case directly to SCOTUS without a 9th Circuit decision (oral arguments will still happen).

The earliest SCOTUS could announce they are taking the cases is September 24th and the earliest ruling would be June 2013.

With the present Justices I think Section 3 would be tossed out, but not all of DOMA. Nobody is arguing that all of DOMA should be thrown out but SCOTUS has that power. Then we will reach the annoying time when the rest of DOMA (states cannot be forced to recognize out of state same sex marriages) is on incredibly shaky ground but we don't have 5 votes to overturn it.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 23:03 on Jul 4, 2012

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Really good poll out of Maine today, assuming everything is legit.
But there's no document or crosstabs available so I can't be 100% sure.

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UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



WithoutTheFezOn posted:

Is that really the actual wording of the ballot question?
For now it says “Do you want to allow same-sex couples to marry?”
The public comment period ends on the 16th and then there are 10 days to appeal.

Supporters are not happy and they've got a point considering it's a significant change from the 2009 language over the same law.


2009 People's Veto Question: “Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?”


2012 Question submitted by petitioners: “Do you favor a law allowing marriage licenses for same-sex couples that protects religious freedom by ensuring no religion or clergy be required to perform such a marriage in violation of their religious beliefs?”

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