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Nothingtoseehere
Nov 11, 2010


IN my opinion, the idea of grammar schools, for providing selective education available to everyone, is a good idea. The problem being that grammar schools are too easy to use simply segregate children into ones worth spending time on and those you do not. Although this is probably influenced by the fact my mum pulled me out of my mediocre state school after two years to go to a selective private one instead (which I did enjoy more, and do better at). It just wish others wouldn't have to pay £14,000 per year to get that kind of education.

Nothingtoseehere fucked around with this message at 15:39 on Jun 1, 2014

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Nothingtoseehere
Nov 11, 2010


I would guess it's simple to be able to remind yourself however poo poo you think your life is, someone else has it much worse. Its why I read E/N at least.

Nothingtoseehere
Nov 11, 2010


Darth Walrus posted:

Remind me, I know why they're not raising interest rates (because then everyone's mortgages will go up and the housing bubble will go pop), but how are low interest rates hurting us in the meantime?

It encourages borrowing by providing cheap debt for spending, which is one of the reasons it was slashed so low in the first place, to encourage spending. Since cheap debt is what got us into this mess in the first place, long-term low interest rates simply lead to a repeat of 2008.

Nothingtoseehere
Nov 11, 2010


Alecto posted:



None of that is a reason for why the Conservatives would get a greater share than in 2010. The UKIP voters didn't come out of nowhere, they did exist in 2010 and I don't see any of them that didn't vote Conservative then voting Conservative now. The Conservative fall in the polls also pre-dates the main of the rise of UKIP, suggesting what they lost in the main was centrists rather than fruitcakes. Yes UKIP will bleed to all the parties in the run up, overwhelmingly the Conservatives, yes Labour will bleed to the Conservatives in the last few months, but who's voting Conservative in 2015 who didn't in 2010? It'd be an extraordinary hold to not lose any net votes after 5 years of government, possibly a first ever (would have to check the data on that one to be sure). Working from that principle the chances of the Conservatives being the largest party with these boundaries is very small.


In both the 1987 and the 1992 elections, the Tories won more votes than they had the previous election (13,012,316 in 1983, 13,790,935 in 1987, 14,093,007 in 1992) So incumbent tory goverments have won more votes in the next election before, and in 1992 during the beginning of a recovering from a recession that was in their previous term.

Nothingtoseehere
Nov 11, 2010


Alecto posted:

In both of those cases they got a smaller share of the vote than the previous election though, which is what really matters. And the 1992 election is too a-typical to draw any conclusions from because the PM changed part way through the parliament. The economy's been 'recovered' for quite some time now as well, and it still hasn't led to a noticeable, sustained Con-Lab swing. Yes, it's possible for the Conservatives to still be the largest party in 2015, but it's really, really unlikely. The advantage that Labour have with the boundaries cannot be emphasised enough.

Also I assume you're not think the Conservatives are going to get an actual majority, so how are they going to form a government? Their MPs are rabidly opposed to another coalition with the Lib Dems, nothing they've promised on the EU would be able to get done. So who's to say even in the eventuality of a Conservative 'win' the fruitcakes don't scare the Lib Dems off and we end up with a Lib-Lab government anyway, given the Lib Dems' commitment to no minority governments because Tough Choices Need To Be Made?

I'm not saying that the Tories will win the next election (In my mind the question is will Labour get enough seats on their own to form a goverrment or not), but that incumbant goverment overall votes always goes down, which is what was claimed.

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