[Mafia] Mean Girls

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Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

I'm going to mull over this while I take a quick shower.

mr.capps posted:

but what if

we find the 100% confirm scum

If you are Scum, I applaud the masterful prodding of Poque

# ¿ Jul 17, 2014 06:21

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# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 03:37

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

fiery_valkyrie posted:

N1 Capps
N2 Ard

I'm curious, what result did you get on me N2?

# ¿ Jul 17, 2014 16:43

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

fiery_valkyrie posted:

My result was a success and you went nowhere.

It matched what you then claimed in thread so I had no reason to doubt you or your cop claim.

Dang, I was hoping you saw who I tried to target. It was a longshot, but it would have made it seem strange that you didn't call me out for my poor choice.

CCKeane posted:

Yo Opop are you a jailer and not a doc this matters for this conversation.

Also can you full claim I just want to get my whole arms around this one.

It is confirmed that I was blocked and not jailed by my night flavor now.

How about this, Opop who did you protect when the kill was prevented?

# ¿ Jul 18, 2014 01:21

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

fiery_valkyrie posted:

That's weird. Why would they roleblock AND try to NK Ard?

Opopanax posted:

Probably just in case he was doctored.

Still seems a little odd, but that is possible.

greatZebu posted:

FYI, you mentioned in-thread that you tried to visit Asiina and realized that it was a bad idea after the fact, so in principle we all knew the answer to who you targeted N2: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3647507&userid=79408#post432222304

Yeah, but I didn't mention it until later in the Day so it would have been odd for him not to call me out early on. Or at least be more suspicious of me.

Doesn't matter anyway since he got the more expected result.

Opopanax posted:

Provided FV is town I think we've got this locked down.

Agreed, but I think that's a point in favor of this setup being unbalanced in our favor. I can't think of a Scum role that would balance things out, so I do think TT has a point in being suspicious of those who have claimed.

Tremendous Taste posted:

Ard, if a town pr claim other than yourself was a lie, who would it be

Are we counting Capps, because I'd probably lean towards him the strongest. Otherwise, probably f_v, but I think he could be one of the more beneficial roles for working out the lies if he is Town.

# ¿ Jul 18, 2014 02:51

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Letting the Scum kill independently of PR usage might help to balance the game.

I do agree with f_v though, the only way for her to be fake claiming tracker is if she is with Capps (in which case we should just lynch Capps). Since we know the other Scum PR is RBer, there is no Scum Rolecop. I suppose f_v could be a JOAT who tracked Capps N1 and rolecopped TT N2 and killed Asiina N3, but that's about the only way I could see f_v being Scum without the Scum kill being usable in addition to PR usage.

# ¿ Jul 18, 2014 05:11

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

fiery_valkyrie posted:

Ard got roleblocked two nights in a row, which makes a scum roleblocker, rather than a JOAT more likely.

Yeah, Roleblocker would have to be the permanent role in that theory.

# ¿ Jul 18, 2014 06:05

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Tremendous Taste posted:

you don't need a sixth sense to discern my griping. stupid in retrospect but it's a thing

Tremendous Taste posted:

It's so boring without fun powers

This is the post he's referring to, which came on 7/16. I agree that you strongly implied VT, but a lot of people do that sort of thing to hide a PR, and it would still be a bit of a gamble for f_v to make that claim without confirmation of some sort.

# ¿ Jul 18, 2014 06:08

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

fiery_valkyrie posted:

This info is apparently important to your win con but you aren't even paying attention when people confirm it in thread. Probably because you made it up so you don't really care.

Agreed. I think he also seemed abnormally accepting of losing when he originally revealed his role, which makes more sense if he was Scum trying to play it cool. I would have expected an actual 3rd Party to begin bargaining immediately and aggressively.

CCKeane posted:

Capps I want a gentleman's agreement here that if you are scum you will give up your scum buddy.

I'm curious how exactly he will pay up on this deal.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 02:06

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

CCKeane posted:

Obviously you are not a gentleman, Ardulac, or else you would understand immediately.

I've played all but one of the Layton games, I think that qualifies me :colbert:

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 02:34

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

CCKeane posted:

Let's no vote.

Capps can visit Opop during the night, and get his final ticket out of here.
Opop can protect Ard.
FV can track Great Zebu.
Ard can investigate FV.

If scum block Opop and kill Ard, Capps will leave and we will be left with Myself, FV, TT, Opop, GreatZebu, two of which will be scum, and making, at the least, FV's logic incorrect.
If scum block and kill Opop, Ard can investigate FV who does seem to have a tracking ability, and we can go from there.
If scum kill FV in any variant, we know her alignment and can use her investigations accordingly.
If scum block Ard and kill Opop, we're left with the same situation as the first case, except with Ard replacing Opop.
If scum block FV and kill Opop, we can use Ard's investigation of FV and go from there.

If scum kill some scrub like myself, well good job scum now the build is FV,TT, Opop, GreatZebu, Ard and you're hosed.

hosed I SAY.

CCKeane posted:

Oh, and obviously, if Capps gets blocked then we have both Ard's and FV's investigations to go off of, so no trying something sneaky there, scum, we'll still get you.

The worst case I'm seeing right now is Scum block Capps and kill f_v. That's bad enough that I'm not willing to go along with the plan intentionally. If for some reason we're unable to agree on a lynch, then it's a passable backup plan since the only real out Scum have won't exist if f_v happens to be among them so it is better than lynching f_v if nothing else.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 17:11

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Who suggested that they would?

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 18:01

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Opopanax posted:

I meant block.

To leave him as a lynch target since he would also still be in the game if he was lying about his role.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 18:50

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

To be more clear, tomorrow will by MYLO if we no lynch. If they leave Capps alive and we no lynch again, then they kill someone else and get him to leave the game and we lose. So we would have 2 people that I pretty much consider cleared (myself and Opop) and 4 possible lynch targets. If we choose wrong the first time we lose. If we choose right, then we pretty much win since you can protect me and I can check one of the other two, so they either kill you to create WIFOM or let me solve the game with my results.

Here's the biggest problem with Keane's plan though: it gets us NOTHING compared to just lynching Capps. They aren't going to kill him, so he'll either leave the game as planned or create some sort of complex situation. Alternatively, we just lynch Capps today and follow the rest of the plan with Scum having that option removed and no other change.

Also, I think Capps is lying. ##Vote Capps

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 19:12

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Oh, and just out of curiosity, could everyone who is around please confirm their presence and give their flavor name. Thanks.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 19:43

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

mr.capps posted:

no but seriously don't kill me i think i only have to give out one more of these condoms and if fv just publicly announces who she is tracking then i'll exit the game

2 days later...

mr.capps posted:

i mean honestly i only probably have one point i think

do you guys think keane was visited much n1 by others, im not sure

What is this?

Also, it seems odd in the first post that Capps specifies f_v announcing her target instead of Opop or I. It makes a lot of sense though if you think of him as Scum who was planning to have his team block Opop and kill me. Of course he wants to know where f_v is going then.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 20:08

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

greatZebu posted:

I am Shane Oman, Vanilla Town. I agree that killing capps is strictly better than killing no one (for town, anyway). I wouldn't consider killing anyone other than capps or fv because if we kill town and capps isn't lying, we just lose.

Agreed.

mr.capps posted:

uhh reasoning

like i hope i have 2 points but logically i probably actually only have one

like this is pretty straight forward

Except your first post was pretty confident and the new information since then should have made you more confident. You know, unless you don't actually care about the claimed wincon and weren't paying close attention to it.

Oh, and another point in favor of Capps being Scum. We know the Scum roleblocker hit someone with no night action during N1, and Keane was targeted by Capps. If I'm right, we won't have a Scum RBer tonight which makes victory little more than a formality. Just under 5 hours left, let's lynch Capps.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 21:08

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Sorry if I'm wrong Capps, but your lynch is the only thing that makes sense today. Lynching someone who might be Town risks losing the game today if you're telling the truth. No lynching is just a worse form of lynching you if you're telling the truth. Lynching you leaves us with the same lynching opportunities in the future with the possibility of additional info. If you you are lying, then we obviously should lynch you today.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 21:12

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

mr.capps posted:

of course i want to be confident because i want to win?
i am sorry you don't know how humans behave

Beep, beep, boop. The only logical course of action is your removal from the game. Sorry bud.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 21:13

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

If you want me to stop advocating your lynch, then explain one benefit to leaving you alive.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 21:16

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

How can we do that better today than tomorrow?

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 21:17

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

The only difference I'm seeing is that I'll likely be dead tomorrow if you're telling the truth. And while I'm not lacking in the self opinion category, I don't think that is worth the risk of leaving you alive.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 21:18

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

mr.capps posted:

one scum on its own makes poorer decisions than 2 or 3 scum together

Eh, maybe?

I mean with everyone full claiming, they've almost certainly worked out most of their plans.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 21:22

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

I have considered one small benefit to lynching someone else over Capps today.

If we hit Scum, then they can't Roleblock and kill tonight which means Opop can protect me tonight. So that's something. I still think it's not worth the risk, but I'll ponder that for a bit.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 21:26

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Let's do that list thing kids were doing earlier.

Rules out:
~~Keane/capps~~ We know Keane had a Vig so she wouldn't have multiple RBs so Capps would have to be the RBer and it would be very odd for him to target his buddy n1.
~~Keane/TT~~ Ruled out by f_v.
~~Zebu/TT~~ Ruled out by f_v.
~~capps/TT~~ Ruled out by f_v.
~~Opop/TT~~ Ruled out by f_v.

Very unlikely:
Keane/f_v - Keane could have saved her Vig, let the Thunderdome finish (killing a Townie or a 3rd Party), and Vigged someone tomorrow as soon as any Townie voted for another Townie. Resulting in a surprise LYLO.
Keane/Zebu - See above.
Keane/Opop - See above.
f_v/Opop - Between my Town result on him and his play, I'm pretty confident Opop is Town. (And honestly, we'll probably just lose if I'm wrong since I don't see us catching him at this point)
Zebu/Opop - See above.
capps/Opop - See above.

The rest:
f_v/Zebu
f_v/capps
f_v/TT
Zebu/capps

Huh, so in any of those 4 cases lynching f_v won't end the game today. Hmm...

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 21:53

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

And even adding the unlikely Keane options back in, the only one that ends the game is Keane/Zebu.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 21:55

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Based on all of that, can anyone see something I'm missing that justifies not lynching f_v?

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 21:58

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

It's tempting to just pull the trigger and do this with you right now.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 22:01

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

greatZebu posted:

Also, if the scum team was me/capps, killing fv would win the game for town because it would verify the identity of both scum (assuming you rule out keane as scum).

Yep, that's what I was getting at. It almost seems too easy, but I'm not seeing any holes in my logic at the moment.

Then again, I didn't see anything wrong with my logic on Capps until I went through this process.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 22:03

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

fiery_valkyrie posted:

Why are you 100% ruling out Keane? We've already said the scum team seems a bit underpowered, so a scum day vig would balance that.

It's not 100%, but there seems to be little to be gained for Keane by using the Vig today instead of tomorrow.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 22:29

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

I'm ready to cast my vote, but I'd rather here what Opop has to say first. I'm okay with making this decision and possibly losing the game for myself, but I'd rather not make that decision for Opop without hearing his thoughts.

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 22:49

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Opopanax posted:

I want to lynch Capps or nobody

Any thoughts on what I mentioned?

# ¿ Jul 19, 2014 23:22

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

The comments on the different possible Scum teams and how that relates to lynching f_v today.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2014 00:04

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

##Unvote

# ¿ Jul 20, 2014 00:15

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Congrats on your win one way or the other Capps. ##Vote f_v.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2014 00:34

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

One hour until deadline. I'll switch to Capps if the alternative is a no lynch. Who is around?

# ¿ Jul 20, 2014 01:01

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Go Town!

# ¿ Jul 20, 2014 21:12

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Good job guys. I feel dumb for lynching f_v over Capps (ignoring he possibility of an assassin in a game with a tracker and so many other Town roles :doh:

), but I will wrap myself in a blanket of being so very right about BHB.

For the record, I think Town was a tad overpowered so you may want to adjust that in the future. Giving Scum a godfather or juggernaut probably would have evened things up, but the fact that a claimed Cop or Tracker could be protected so easily is a huge boon to Town.

Good game everyone (since we won, otherwise I'd be cursing TT's name for lurking to victory).

# ¿ Jul 22, 2014 23:17

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# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 03:37

Ardulac: May 31, 2005; "There is a difference between fear and caution."

Tremendous Taste posted:

Scum straight up forgot a nights worth of actions X(

I'm assuming you would have tried to kill me and been stopped, so it's sort of like it actually happened.

Also, I really expected my burn to be something like, "Ard u lac (class, talent, style, a face that isn't punchable, etc.)".

# ¿ Jul 22, 2014 23:23

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