Ixtlilton posted:

We're pretty much blind guessing on the risk/reward here, so I'm going to assign values here and sperg out for a second to help figure out which one I'd prefer. I'm estimating some odds here, if you disagree let me know.

So we've go option 1, which I'm assigning a value of 3 to the scum team for.
Option 2 which I'm assigning a value of 2 for.
And option 3 which I'm assigning a value of 1 for.

If town is correct I'm going to go ahead and give it a value of 3 for town, 0 otherwise, because I don't think TT would make it so that the penalties of choosing meetings would outweigh the benefit to town of choosing correctly, because otherwise scum would never pick it.

If I were scum I would estimate that town would pick option 1 60% of the time and option 2 40% of the time, making the values for their decision-making process like this:

3-3*.6=1.2

2-3*.4=0.8

1-3*0=1

From these highly speculative calculations it would appear that scum's best choice is still payphones. However, from the OP it can be gleaned that perhaps more information is gained from the higher level options with a correct, and changing the calculation to reflect this puts payphones on par with cellphones. However, it is important to note that with these stupid meaningless numbers the disadvantage for choosing meetings is minimal and provides an extra value outside of mechanics: town is wrong no matter what if they choose safe options, and you get people who look bad no matter what, and there's doubt about the people on the other side no matter what.

And that's a lot of words that don't mean much and aren't really helping me decide which one I'd prefer. Flavor-wise I feel like we'd be remiss if we didn't choose the one we feel like scum is most likely to choose which is probably payphones, but cellphones is still the safest option and if we chose payphones and they chose cellphones I'd feel really dumb.

Little Mac posted:

I'm not trying to steer necessarily, but I wanted to open discussion on the main game mechanic with my thoughts: were I scum, I'd always pick cellphones on the off chance we'd get a huge advantage. I mean, we have a 1/3 chance of guessing correctly while they have a 2/3 chance of us guessing incorrectly. With the odds like that, why not go for the gold?

Deadbeat Dad posted:

Also I want to address this - I don't disagree with that in the slightest - the mechanic will basically ensure more serious play early on, and thus better reads throughout D1. I

If you read through my games I basically think D1 is a crapshoot as well (which people think is scummy for some reason) unless somebody fucks up hardcore but less so this game because of the mechanic. So I'm not saying don't discuss the mechanic - just that in my notes everything in D1 is a loving crapshoot. After the first day is when you see how people respond to a good or bad read with better result/things to go off of.

But I was sort of alluding to, in my post, that the cellphone/payphone discussion/votes being the big factor didn't have to start so early - it could've started at any point - and that it's at least a little interesting it started early. Naturally I felt like I personally, would come to my decision later on in the day.

CapitalistPig posted:

I played Survivor like I play mario party, a series of disconnected mini games that I am firmly mediocre at.

Rarity posted:

I'm in agreement with this line of thinking. It looks like a bunch of the quiet people are still newbies so I can see them wanting to hang back and figure out what's going on but Opop's just refusing to make opinions.

##vote Opopanax

Ixtlilton posted:

Because not forcing opinions is totally a scum tell, you see.

Little Mac posted:

I'm out right now and posting via phone. Should be able to be back in time for deadline to reread Are, but honestly, he seems scummy to me in every game we've ever been in together.

Ardulac posted:

I'm back now. The case on me is bad, but if everyone will at least post meaningful thoughts on it then I can die happy. I take issue with the idea that I'm anti-fun. I just don't think Ecco's gimmick is fun or indicative of effort play or anything else that I value in Mafia play. Obviously there isn't much agreement with me on that point.

Fast Luck posted:

Oh, I didn't realize he was one of the new ones!

##unvote

Gotta find someone else to vote, though.

Dr. Hurt posted:

Just yell at folks and be a huge jerk. Trust me, it's the way to be a big hit.

CapitalistPig posted:

##vote ip

##intercept payphones

Asiina posted:

Hi I am in this game now. I will read it tomorrow.

Ixtlilton posted:

I flavorcopped you you idiot.

Ixtlilton posted:

I prompted you for your flavor because I knew your flavor and it was scummy. Wooooooooooosh.

DuckHuntDog posted:

The OP says character names and roles are randomized and not related to events on the show, so claiming your flavor (and not role) should not be an issue. I don't get how that constitutes a "goof" unless you have something to hide.

Opopanax posted:

Uuuuuhhhh ##vote Burgandy Sure looks like you done hosed up

Deadbeat Dad posted:

Seriously though Asiina, statements like that make me want to vote you as much as I wanted to vote Rarity out of semi-OMGUS since I'm not over here going "look at this fuckin' playstyle, I refuse to get involved".

quote:

You are basically rehashing an argument that holds even less weight now since I had not played defensive since then and have been involved to an extent that seems certainly more than "nothing" which I'd still like you to explain, preferentially compared to your posts.

I explained myself to Somb and he understood - I just stopped the back and forth with Rarity since it just seemed like she had a problem with my playstyle rather than anything else (all of the content, something/nothing/activity quips were all opinions that I felt towards her as well D1) and as a whole were strange to me since basically 5 people voted while there were like 15 people scrounging a vote up with a few hours to go with zero to little actual good discussion towards a legit candidate.

quote:

Which is why I don't get your method of "catching up". There's a lot to look at when there's a scum flip and you can see possible defenses or bussing between people - you just read the back and forth discussion, exaggerated my defense with "kid this is how I've always played I'm not changing now." and then echoed opinions that in my eyes at least, didn't warrant itself in the first place.

Ixtlilton posted:

Please Asiina, tell me more about how I shouldn't have used my role to get reactions from people and scum hunt

IcePhoenix posted:

I voted payphones on a gut instinct and didn't see any significant reason to change my vote before it was hammered. I'm sure I would have changed my vote if it mattered but you probably don't care! Actually you probably do, since you keep saying we shouldn't let discussion of the intercepts drive us but you have on multiple occasions brought conversation back to them. You're really aggressive and that seems kinda scummy to me!

IcePhoenix posted:

Hi guys, I was out all day (though I managed to make a post from work) and just spent some time catching up on the thread, and wanted to weigh in on the intercepts (and I absolutely feel that they are worth talking about) by talking about opportunity cost.

A couple important things we should keep in mind is that if we guess right then we get "Valuable Information," though we don't know what that entails. It depends on how powerful Taste wants to make it. It could be the scum discussing a target for the next night (which would clear someone as town), for instance. It could also just be some sort of clue that needs decoding. Maybe the information we get is dependent on what method they're using. The other important thing is figuring out what the disadvantages could be. Unlimited communication when using cellphones seems likely. Limited communication with payphones, maybe they can only speak through PMs or something. And holding them to a meeting may just mean that they get a small window of time to discuss their next move and no communication outside that is allowed.

So what does opportunity cost have to do with that? Probability says that we have a 1/3 chance of catching them each day by guessing randomly. Or if we decide that holding them to a meeting is victory enough, and anything else is a bonus, we could vote between cellphones and payphones and hope the 50% chance of catching it will dissuade them from doing anything but meetings. The final option, as has already been discussed, is of course to just decide to deny them access to cellphones outright, because the ability to run at "full strength" is too dangerous.

Personally, I prefer to go with one of the first two options, because in the case of the first I think the chance of learning something is much greater than never learning anything, and in the case of the second it really seems like Taste wants to make meetings a "worst case scenario" for the scum. In the "always cellphone" option I don't see how that helps the town, as it doesn't seem like using payphones will be much of a hindrance at all, and the scum will know that it's safe to use them.

IcePhoenix posted:

also because I forgot (sorry Rarity): gently caress

IcePhoenix posted:

The last couple days of modding Awful Survivor: ADTRW have been incredibly lovely. When I tried posting more earlier in this thread I started getting attacked for trying to help in the wrong way. When I tried justifying it I was attacked for being "too defensive." I just threw up my hands because I'm going to get lynched for everything I try to do. If I vote for someone else I'm being scummy because I'm trying to move the target off of me. If I do nothing I'm being scummy because I'm silent, and if I try and counter-argue I'm scummy for defending myself. I figured my best option to maybe play this game was to just keep my mouth shut and hope a case for someone else came up.

For now I'm just going to ##vote: Fast Luck because his case on me is retarded and it's going to get me killed on day 2 again. I capitalized Valuable Information because Taste allcapsed it in the OP.

Ixtlilton posted:

Were you town? Fast Luck looks pretty town to me from his connection post, and IcePhoenix's sentiment is pretty scummy there.

Ixtlilton posted:

Were you town? Fast Luck looks pretty town to me from his connection post, and IcePhoenix's sentiment is pretty scummy there.

Rarity posted:

Ok yeah, I recognise this feeling completely. Ice is town.

##vote Deadbeat Dad

Ixtlilton posted:

You seem to be forgetting the half of D1 in April Fools Mafia you were scum before Baka Emperor killed you, and the 3/4 of D1 you were scum in Meinberg's game before you replaced out.

Deadbeat Dad posted:

It's less my scumdar going off and more of I want them to elaborate on why they don't like this post, otherwise it could just be made as a google document of taking mental notes to themselves - it doesn't add anything if there is nothing with it.

Also I responded to you earlier in the game saying my D1 defensive play is how I read people on their content/tone etc when responding to me and you had a huge problem with it. "This is literally how mafia works"

Deadbeat Dad posted:

I
AM
saying
you
didn't elaborate on your opinions

You are keeping opinions to yourself. Saying 'I like this' or 'I don't like this' are statements and not your opinions on the players on why you liked or didn't like the post. I'm saying you can go more in depth or have actual back and forth discussions like this for people to look back on if you didn't make it to the last day and flipped town.

Deadbeat Dad posted:

Question him for what? It was a gut shot. Nothing I say to him would have made him softclaim unless I was like I have a gun and will shoot you and even then I'm not sure I'd believe a "wire fixer" claim.

Deadbeat Dad posted:

At least my voters are loyal.

Fast Luck posted:

Yeah, the reason I actually jumped onto DBD for a split second is because I'm really not sure how killing a townie and then outing an inventor suddenly cleared him of suspicion. MEDS said he made the most town post of the day, but then MEDS himself had been leading in votes just hours earlier until he self-claimed. That said, "two shot hider" seems pretty specific for a fake claim.

MEDS, DBD, what's your flavor?

I don't really feel strongly about CPig or Magnus but voted for them almost as "none of the above" options. Magnus, because he said he had reread Ice, then said he hadn't read Ice yet, and because he hasn't offered much, and CPig just as an alternative to Ice.

CapitalistPig posted:

Deadbeat Dad posted: