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paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
BOS
TON

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paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
hantzes gonna hantz


e: good lord that ridiculous tiger tattoo

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO

Metropolis posted:

I liked that one guy who, in the beginning, had the confessional about how putting yourself into the instant leadership role is a terrible idea. There's usually some dummy who shoots themselves in the foot by volunteering and becoming a target.

I kinda like him too, even though his pre-game interview seemed douchey. Being at the top of your tribe is a sure fire way to get a target on your back. I thought he'd hit the ground running too hard but he seems to have things dialed down properly.

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
A recap of my first reaction to Max:

Met posted:

Name (Age): Max Dawson, Ph.D., 37
Reason for Being on SURVIVOR: First and foremost, I am playing to win.

notmakingthemerge.txt

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO

Binary Logic posted:

AND: another week goes by without "the twist" promised for this season.
NEVERMIND :shivdurf:
We're down to 10 people and no jury yet. Possible scenarios:

1) 2 or 3 finalists and 7 jurors. There hasn't been a 7 person jury since season 18, Tocantins.
2) 2 finalists and 8 jurors. Potential for a tie here. Happened once in Micronesia (season 16 Parvati over Amanda 5-3).
3) Someone's coming back. Outcasts twist from season 7. Jeff Probst supposedly hated this twist, but if it isn't obvious to you by now: Jeff will flip his opinion about anything (and flip it back again if necessary) if he thinks it will drum up interest in his show.

paperchaseguy fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Apr 9, 2015

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
Oops I missed that. :(

1) 3 finalists and 8 jurors.
2) 2 finalists and 9 jurors.
3) Someone's coming back. Probably not happening if they announced the jury starting.

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
winner is either Mike, Carolyn, or Tyler. I don't think Joe or Jenn can make it to the finals unless Carolyn and Tyler flip.

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO

blue squares posted:

I just want a youtube channel that hosts all of the really long, grueling challenges so I can watch people suffer for hours

turn on Survivor:Nicaragua and get a mirror

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
THIS IS ME DOING AN 80s ENDING SLOW CLAP FOR A

:golfclap:
GREAT
loving
EPISODE!
:golfclap:

Will: man talk about a roller coaster. Poor guy got yanked around about six times in the first 15 minutes. He shared his unexpected food bounty with a bunch of people who had just eaten and was criticized for it! JFC I almost could understand his berating but then he just kept going and going.

Shirin: you're annoying and you won't win IT'S TRUE but you didn't deserve that.

Jenn: you were most likely to go from meh to island hot and drat girl you didn't disappoint. ;-* But you gave up when you fell behind.

Mike: Playing the best, putting forth the most effort, and won't win. Sorry bro

Dan and Sierra: how the hell are you two the swing votes? Together??


That was a great midpoint to a season that plodded for a bit after a strong start. Now there is a nonzero probability of Rodney winning Survivor :psyduck:

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
I don't think the extra vote is a good idea. I used to run mafia games with occasional twists in them, and an extra vote was always a pain in the rear end. Survivor isn't Mafia, but screwing around with the voting in either game seems like it can gently caress up the game mechanics.

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO

DoggPickle posted:

Someone mentioned it earlier in passing, but there is significantly less "camp life" footage nowadays compared to 10 years ago, and therefore there are probably a lot of random idiosyncratic behaviors and annoyances that all these people let drift into their voting that we don't see at all. I mean, when was the last time you saw someone fish, and anyone cared about that? Who actually cooks, who finds the coconuts and fetches the water, who hogs the sleep shack, who is just plain annoying on a daily basis? Who knows?

I wish there was more on camp life. I think the editing of the episodes in general has been weak (latest episode excepted). The gimmicks eat into the time (Redemption Island eating up 5-10 minutes of screen time), and the editing of quotes into a singlesentence when it's clearthey were spoken atdifferent times is really aggravating. Trying to jam a bunch of stuff in at the expense of a natural flow makes it seem like the drama is manufactured (again, latest episode excepted).

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
Is there anybody you wouldn't take to the final tribal with you? Besides Mike?

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
Christina
Tarzan
Kat
Leif
Bumpuzzled Jay
Colton
Bill

Fucks sake that season sucked

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
Tyler or Dan tonight.

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO

Fiji had Rocky, Lisi, Alex and Dreamz. This season has Dan, Rodney, Will, Shirin, Joaquin and Max.

Slate might have a point.

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
Uhhh crap I'm having a hard time remembering some of these people. Also I never watched the first dozen seasons or so.

Tasha, Carolyn, Kass, Abi-Maria, Kelley, Kelly, Mikayla, Peih-Gee, Natalie, Sabrina. Gotta have your requisite Kellys and crazies (Abi-Maria, Kass). (Might sub out Kelley for Ciera.)

The guys were easier to pick:
Jeremy, Shane, Fishbach, Mike, Spencer, Troyzan, Woo, Terry, Andrew, Jim


Someone picked Keith? For real? Dude made a huge, HUGELY inept blunder at tribal and should never get another shot just for that. Brad Culpepper? His wife has already been on twice. So did Vytas' brother. If you got on just because a family member was returning, are you really that compelling?

I hope that they only let one person maximum from each season. However this would mean that only one of Tasha/Kass/Spencer would get on and I'm sure there are other conflicts.

paperchaseguy fucked around with this message at 12:27 on May 7, 2015

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO

Binary Logic posted:

I'm still wondering about Carolyn getting rid of her ally and siding with Mike.
Of the remaining people only Mike and maybe Sierra understand jury management and that if they get to F3, they need votes to win.

At some point a truly great player has to do something ruthless to ensure their win. Tyler was a potential winner, at the time maybe only 2nd to Mike. Yes he was Carolyn's ally, but any plan to save him would have been risky and drawn attention. Carolyn sees the endgame and that keeping Tyler would have been more a liability than a help. At this point she is not the biggest threat to win (Mike), and has an idol: basically two guaranteed advancements. The only thing that can stop her is the final immunity challenge.

eta: she also booted the only person who knew she had an idol. She suggested playing it for him, AND THEN distracted him into trying a different plan. A very subtle manipulation that gets her further without pissing Tyler off too much.

Calling it now: Carolyn's your winner.

paperchaseguy fucked around with this message at 12:24 on May 7, 2015

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
I think we can all agree that twice is plenty of chances to play Survivor. More than that and Jeff just wants to give you a million dollars.

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO

Met posted:

I'm just vaguely confident that Jeff wouldn't call this one of his favorite seasons with a Dan/Will/Rodney win.

Jeff wildly exaggerating how good the upcoming season is?!?? WHAT YOU SAY

I would pay good money for a final 2 of Dan and Will.

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
I personally would enjoy every second of Jeff awkwardly trying to put lipstick on the pig.

Of course Dan or Will would have to win final immunity for that to happen. Unless someone got sick and evacuated at the last minute!

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO

BGrifter posted:

I wouldn't hesitate to root for Dan in a Dan vs Will final two. Dan is a loudmouthed, ignorant, condecending jackass, but 90% of his problem is being utterly clueless and incapable of imaging what it must be like to be on the other side of a conversation with him. Will is malicious in a way Dan really isn't.

Dan is contemptuous to everybody, including himself. That doesn't make it OK, but at least he doesn't spare himself.

Unmerciful posted:

Haha I hadn't seen that FB post - to me that makes the story even more fascinating. Can Dan be such an insincere rear end in a top hat and so proudly ignorant and privileged but also a devoted husband and such a good friend that people are lining up to give testimonials and Sierra flies cross country to watch the show with him? Apparently that's the case but it seems very weird to me.

You know, I think he can be that kind of guy. He simply has a case of oblivious foot-in-mouth disease. I don't like him, but I could see him definitely being an utterly loyal friend through thick and thin. See how he talked to Will after the two votes on him.

That's the first I'd heard of Sierra doing that, do you have a link? A mature person on Survivor could go through 39 days of hell, come out the other side and say: Hey, we were all starving, hot, cold, sleep-deprived, stressed, and fighting each other for a million dollars. Now that the game is over, I'll give everyone a mulligan and see how they are when we aren't going through the toughest experience of our lives. You see Jeff talk about how everyone on Survivor is a Family, and it's not surprising considering the unique, highly stressful shared experience they went through together. If Sierra and Dan can be friendly enough to set aside their differences and spend a day together, I think that speaks highly of them whatever their edit may be.

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
If you don't love Merica, you can kiss my ss

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO

Tyree posted:

how the gently caress is shane not in this, gently caress this

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paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO

Hot Dog Day #91 posted:

Can someone explain why the 5/6 in the numbers almost never flips to the other alliance?

It's not so much that they're 5th/6th in their alliance, it's that they're 5/6th out of 11. Therefore the 5/6 person still sees themselves as on the top half. Usually everybody knows who the swing vote is at 9 or 7 (the two most crucial votes IMO). Rarely you do get a ChaosKass loving things up.

I liken it to the Supreme Court, which has 9 voting members. The most senior justice in the majority gets to assign the written opinion to someone in their "alliance". To get a majority of 5 on a decision, usually the opinion is assigned to the shakiest vote.

To bring it back to Survivor, a smart way to keep the 5th vote on your side at 9 people left (or the 4th vote at 7) would be to ask them who they want to get rid of on the minority alliance. Not many alliances are this canny, the usual strategy for keeping shaky votes in line is to browbeat them or lie.

The swing/shaky vote doesn't flip because they're not a Supreme Court justice with years of experience negotiating a potential flip of opinion where the worst that can happen is losing a case, but a Survivor player (usually for the first time) who is cold, hot, lonely, sleep deprived, exhausted, starved, stuck in an unfamiliar place with a bunch of strangers chosen specifically to create drama, and lied to or browbeaten into falling in line with the majority opinion under threat of losing their "friends" (plus a chance at a million dollars).

Sometimes the shakiest vote in your alliance can change to another person depending on who is voted out. Lets say you have nine players, and the current alliances are Vowels vs. Consonants. Players A E I O and U have an advantage over players P Q R S. The shakiest member is U since U is further from the other Vowels. Most Vowels would want to vote off S, being further from it. But U wants to vote off P. If U gets their way, O would be the most hurt, losing a strong possible secondary alliance. U would gain if P is booted because it then has as good a shot at a secondary alliance as O. Does this mean O is actually the shakiest member despite being closer to A E and I? Those three have to play carefully to keep both O and U on board. This is just a one dimensional example, Survivor players have to deal with tribe vs. tribe, old vs. young, men vs. women, etc. It's more complicated than it looks.

If you want to dissect a (justifiable) flip and the fallout from it, check out Jonathan and Candace's fight over sharing fish in Cook Islands.

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