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Evil_Greven
Feb 20, 2007

Whadda I got to,
whadda I got to do
to wake ya up?

To shake ya up,
to break the structure up!?
Oh, Australia...

quote:

As many as 110 out of 140 positions at the atmosphere and oceans division at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) will be cut, Larry Marshall, the agency’s chief executive, told staff Friday. Another 120 positions will be cut from the land and water program. Across the agency, 350 climate staff will be moved into new roles unrelated to their specialty.
...
Marshall, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, became CSIRO’s CEO in Jan. 2015 and immediately announced that CSIRO would focus on innovation over basic science. Marshall and CSIRO representatives did not respond to ClimateWire’s request for comment by deadline.

When Malcolm Turnbull became Australia’s prime minister in September last year, replacing a pro-energy predecessor, environmentalists rejoiced. But Turnbull’s government has also emphasized science that can be easily commercialized, according to media reports.
...
On Feb. 3, Marshall wrote in a memo that CSIRO would henceforth focus on commercially viable projects. The next day, during a staff meeting, he said all climate change programs would be cut. Staff would be transferred into other programs, so there would not be job losses, he said.

Marshall wrote in the memo that climate change is now settled science, and basic research is no longer needed.

“The question has been answered, and the new question is what do we do about it, and how can we find solutions for the climate we will be living with,” he wrote.

CSIRO would now focus on a path where “climate and industry can be partners, now we must walk that path to prove our science.”
gently caress everything.

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Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
What they really want to say is: " The question is no longer whether the climate is changing, but how we can best monetize that change for profit."

:suicide:

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Evil_Greven posted:

Oh, Australia...

gently caress everything.

quote:

Marshall, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, became CSIRO’s CEO in Jan. 2015 and immediately announced that CSIRO would focus on innovation over basic science.
Short term thinker who doesn't understand how science works gets put in charge of state-funded organisation best suited for basic science, confuses it with engineering academy. Nothing could possibly go wrong.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!
*reallocates research points from environmental science to power plant development*

*clicks "finish turn"*

Ssthalar
Sep 16, 2007

Evil_Greven posted:

Oh, Australia...

gently caress everything.

I'm pretty "happy" that I managed to get on happy pills before this news.
Otherwise there'd be blood.

Inglonias
Mar 7, 2013

I WILL PUT THIS FLAG ON FREAKING EVERYTHING BECAUSE IT IS SYMBOLIC AS HELL SOMEHOW

More good news!

The Supreme Court has issued a stay on the Clean Power Plan!

:negative:

Listerine
Jan 5, 2005

Exquisite Corpse

Is there a good source that discusses this plan and it's potential effectiveness? Saw someone post on FB that it wouldn't have actually done anything.

ugh its Troika
May 2, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Good. The EPA is drastically overreaching it's authority on the subject, much like they have with a number of other issues over the past decade (and were slapped down in court on many of those, too).

ANIME AKBAR
Jan 25, 2007

afu~

blowfish posted:

*reallocates research points from environmental science to power plant development*

*clicks "finish turn"*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEJd838oNp4

totalnewbie
Nov 13, 2005

I was born and raised in China, lived in Japan, and now hold a US passport.

I am wrong in every way, all the damn time.

Ask me about my tattoos.

-Troika- posted:

Good. The EPA is drastically overreaching it's authority on the subject, much like they have with a number of other issues over the past decade (and were slapped down in court on many of those, too).

It's a stay, not a striking down or "slapping down". The case has yet to be argued before the appeals court, which will happen in June.

In other words, 5-4 Supreme Court said, "Eh, alright, you've got a case. We'll preserve the status quo until the case is actually heard/decided."

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Listerine posted:

Is there a good source that discusses this plan and it's potential effectiveness? Saw someone post on FB that it wouldn't have actually done anything.

The end goal is 30% reduction in CO2 from electricity production by 2030. The specific targets varied by state. Its the final stage in a series of rules culminating to it.

Listerine
Jan 5, 2005

Exquisite Corpse

Trabisnikof posted:

The end goal is 30% reduction in CO2 from electricity production by 2030. The specific targets varied by state. Its the final stage in a series of rules culminating to it.

Yeah I guess my question was would the proposed changes actually meet those goals? The comment that got me interested was a claim that it would take a 1000 years before you would see measurable changes in CO2.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Listerine posted:

Yeah I guess my question was would the proposed changes actually meet those goals? The comment that got me interested was a claim that it would take a 1000 years before you would see measurable changes in CO2.

Yes, it would if it gets fully implemented, or get very close. It is a regulatory action not just a proposal or policy paper.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


I keep reading things in print media along the lines of "the scientific community is in overwhelming consensus regarding climate change." I've only started reading research publication journals outside American Journal of Physics in the last year and feel like I've largely missed the boat on what precisely contributes to that consensus.

I'd love to (because I'm lazy) put together a short reading list of what you consider to be modern milestone publications in climate change. I realize that climate change as a research field is quite broad now, so even if you know of a well-known paper in a specific field, I'm interested in what you'd have me read.

Morbus
May 18, 2004

I would start with the IPCC reports and go from there.

totalnewbie
Nov 13, 2005

I was born and raised in China, lived in Japan, and now hold a US passport.

I am wrong in every way, all the damn time.

Ask me about my tattoos.
Something like this? http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024

rivetz
Sep 22, 2000


Soiled Meat
Yeah, I was going to link to this as well, not the study itself, but the supplementary data used to support Cook's study incidentally also serves as one of the best (albeit clunkiest) one-stop-shop repositories of climate research out there, just in terms of being able to clumsily browse thousands of titles of studies, poke around for a paper investigating some aspect that interests you, and then track down the study itself via separate search. If you do go that route, be sure to check the ratings assigned to the paper. I've yet to find any exaggeration or misrepresentation in categorization of papers as explicitly/implicitly/etc endorsing the consensus.

Anyway, doesn't fit the initial ask all that well, but it still has value (to me) as just an absolute shitton of research and studies and findings and :effort: from all over the world that all touch AGW one way or another. Frankly this is a really good way to get really fuckin irritated with people that still maintain there's some tacit conspiracy at play here.

In other news, some interesting findings on PETM find that it really did take thousands of years for poo poo to get as real as we're boldly working to achieve in a few decades. I'm still encountering "happened before, no problem if it's happening now!" stuff from time to time; nice to have something new to point at when making the case that it was a slightly different scenario sixty million years ago.


Also, hoping I can get a hand on a couple fronts from y'all:

  • My daughter's 6th-grade class is holding a climate change conference next weekend, ClimateCon PDX (https://www.facebook.com/climateconpdx2016) and I'm going to be giving a 20-30 minute presentation on climate change. I was going to do it on how to speak to people about climate change, a la skeptics' greatest hits and rebuttals, but...is that really necessary anymore? Aren't we at the point that it's lending false equivalence to that position? Am I better off doing something on how to talk to kids about climate change? Audience will be kids and parents, unsure if we really need any more of "No, the scientists didn't predict an ice age back in the 70s".

    The only other idea I have is some vague poo poo about communicating on climate change, and that's not only hard to do with an optimistic spin, it's also kinda misleading to do with an optimistic spin. I'm not a big fan of a "things You can do to prevent global warming" approach, either, as I'm one of those folks who don't personally feel like individual actions do much to move the needle. If you were a parent at one of these things, what would you want to hear about from a reasonably-well-informed non-climate-scientist dad?

  • For the next week, I've gotta fill that Facebook page up with AGW-related articles, but all the news recently has been lovely (Supreme Court decision, CSIRO layoffs) and so much of climate news in generally is such a downer. Anyone have any links they can recommend, pages and/or articles that take any kind of glass-half-full approach to mitigation or adaptation?

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
Edit: It's 4am and climate change is not the climbing thread.

Hello Sailor
May 3, 2006

we're all mad here

New study claiming that a lot more people than previously thought currently experience severe water scarcity. About half a billion year-round, with another 3.5 billion at least one month of the year.

The study: http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/2/e1500323.full
Washington Post article on the study that spoke to one of the researchers: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/12/the-world-has-even-bigger-water-problems-than-we-thought/

Rime posted:

Edit: It's 4am and climate change is not the climbing thread.

Climbate Change: Are We Headed for an Insurmountable Cliff?

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Hello Sailor posted:

Climbate Change: Are We Headed for an Insurmountable Cliff?

Imagine four climates on the edge of a cliff.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Scalia died today.

This is the most significant turn off events for climate change policy in easily twenty years.

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Potato Salad posted:

Scalia died today.

This is the most significant turn off events for climate change policy in easily twenty years.

Not really?

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Potato Salad posted:

Scalia died today.

This is the most significant turn off events for climate change policy in easily twenty years.

rip in piss, but probably no

Winter Rose
Sep 27, 2007

Understand how unstable the truth can be.

rivetz posted:

Yeah, I was going to link to this as well, not the study itself, but the supplementary data used to support Cook's study incidentally also serves as one of the best (albeit clunkiest) one-stop-shop repositories of climate research out there, just in terms of being able to clumsily browse thousands of titles of studies, poke around for a paper investigating some aspect that interests you, and then track down the study itself via separate search. If you do go that route, be sure to check the ratings assigned to the paper. I've yet to find any exaggeration or misrepresentation in categorization of papers as explicitly/implicitly/etc endorsing the consensus.

Anyway, doesn't fit the initial ask all that well, but it still has value (to me) as just an absolute shitton of research and studies and findings and :effort: from all over the world that all touch AGW one way or another. Frankly this is a really good way to get really fuckin irritated with people that still maintain there's some tacit conspiracy at play here.

In other news, some interesting findings on PETM find that it really did take thousands of years for poo poo to get as real as we're boldly working to achieve in a few decades. I'm still encountering "happened before, no problem if it's happening now!" stuff from time to time; nice to have something new to point at when making the case that it was a slightly different scenario sixty million years ago.


Also, hoping I can get a hand on a couple fronts from y'all:

  • My daughter's 6th-grade class is holding a climate change conference next weekend, ClimateCon PDX (https://www.facebook.com/climateconpdx2016) and I'm going to be giving a 20-30 minute presentation on climate change. I was going to do it on how to speak to people about climate change, a la skeptics' greatest hits and rebuttals, but...is that really necessary anymore? Aren't we at the point that it's lending false equivalence to that position? Am I better off doing something on how to talk to kids about climate change? Audience will be kids and parents, unsure if we really need any more of "No, the scientists didn't predict an ice age back in the 70s".

    The only other idea I have is some vague poo poo about communicating on climate change, and that's not only hard to do with an optimistic spin, it's also kinda misleading to do with an optimistic spin. I'm not a big fan of a "things You can do to prevent global warming" approach, either, as I'm one of those folks who don't personally feel like individual actions do much to move the needle. If you were a parent at one of these things, what would you want to hear about from a reasonably-well-informed non-climate-scientist dad?

  • For the next week, I've gotta fill that Facebook page up with AGW-related articles, but all the news recently has been lovely (Supreme Court decision, CSIRO layoffs) and so much of climate news in generally is such a downer. Anyone have any links they can recommend, pages and/or articles that take any kind of glass-half-full approach to mitigation or adaptation?

How about making your presentation interactive? Activities like this: https://www.climateinteractive.org/programs/world-climate/ help make climate change feel very real to people without any lecturing - it's basically game-ifying mitigation. Poke around the website, there's a few educational tools on there.

Evil_Greven
Feb 20, 2007

Whadda I got to,
whadda I got to do
to wake ya up?

To shake ya up,
to break the structure up!?
Do you know what September 1979 and January 2016 have in common?

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


I didn't need to start my day with that :smith:

drat.

JohnnySavs
Dec 28, 2004

I have all the characteristics of a human being.
An ice-free arctic summer by 2020 seems a likelihood at this point.

Colonel J
Jan 3, 2008

Evil_Greven posted:

Do you know what September 1979 and January 2016 have in common?



I see what the graph says, but what DO those months have in common?

Inglonias
Mar 7, 2013

I WILL PUT THIS FLAG ON FREAKING EVERYTHING BECAUSE IT IS SYMBOLIC AS HELL SOMEHOW

Colonel J posted:

I see what the graph says, but what DO those months have in common?

Sea ice volume for the two months are approximately equal.

January is the dead of winter, and September is just after melt season ends, if I am not mistaken.

JohnnySavs
Dec 28, 2004

I have all the characteristics of a human being.

Inglonias posted:

Sea ice volume for the two months are approximately equal.

January is the dead of winter, and September is just after melt season ends, if I am not mistaken.

The valley/peak is usually September/March - this year however...

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July
If at first you don't succeed, fish, fish again.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

JohnnySavs posted:

An ice-free arctic summer by 2020 seems a likelihood at this point.
Wouldn't that cause a greenhouse effect on the north pole, creating massively hosed up weather patterns and extreme seasons for the rest of the century? Like the east coast getting 10 inches of rain each season?

Uranium Phoenix
Jun 20, 2007

Boom.

Grouchio posted:

Wouldn't that cause a greenhouse effect on the north pole, creating massively hosed up weather patterns and extreme seasons for the rest of the century? Like the east coast getting 10 inches of rain each season?

I don't think it would increase the greenhouse effect (that's more gases reflecting heat radiated from the earth), but it would decrease the albedo of the planet, since water is obviously much darker and absorbs more energy than ice. The arctic ice decreasing is a positive feedback loop, since the more ice goes, the warmer things get, and the more ice goes.

Climate change is going to screw with weather patterns and intensify seasons, yes. I don't know if models are good enough to predict something like the east coast specifically getting X amount of rain each season.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


The poles are, in addition to reflectors, massive heat radiators.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Potato Salad posted:

The poles are, in addition to reflectors, massive heat radiators.

:poland:

Don Pigeon
Oct 29, 2005

Great pigeons are not born great. They grow great by eating lots of bread crumbs.

Potato Salad posted:

The poles are, in addition to reflectors, massive heat radiators.

I'm pretty sure that outgoing longwave (infrared) radiation is a function of temperature, so the Equator radiates a lot more heat outward than the poles.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Water vapor attenuates IR emission. Dry polar air permits greater net IR emission despite the surface sitting in a lower blackbody regime. Equatorial air is not transparent to IR in relevant bands.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


The heat pump wherein energy is moved from tropics through the primary Hadley cell to sympathetic cells is complex.

Don Pigeon
Oct 29, 2005

Great pigeons are not born great. They grow great by eating lots of bread crumbs.

Potato Salad posted:

Water vapor attenuates IR emission. Dry polar air permits greater net IR emission despite the surface sitting in a lower blackbody regime. Equatorial air is not transparent to IR in relevant bands.



The poles are massive net radiators of heat only because the incoming energy is much lower at the poles than the equator. As you see in the plot, there is indeed more outgoing IR radiation at the equator (which is why if you look at an IR satellite image of the globe, the surface of the tropics is hotter and emits more energy) but because the incoming radiation is lower at the pole, the net effect is that of heat escaping at the poles.

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Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


The blue curve of that diagram will illustrate the point.

Can you tell me whether that blue line looks like a simple sin(theta) for theta polar angle ranging from pole-to-pole or whether there's something deeper than introductory physics blackbody modeling for a simple sphere with its shape?

Hint: that's not a straight trigonometric function, nor is it merely the power output of each polar latitude as a function of regional temperature. Accounted into net radiation is how well each slice of a given power density vs wavelength radiating blackbody function penetrates the atmosphere. This is dependent on functions including aerosols (suspended particles), water vapor, onward.

One of many asymmetries between the northern and southern poles involves different life cycles of polar stratospheric clouds and how they stabilize nitrogen oxides and the different life cycles of reservoir species. Such a cycle is interesting to those studying CFCs.

Background: I used to work with polar atmosphere models. I have a background in computational physics.

Edit: I was (and am) willing to leave it at "atmospheric science is complex." :D I came into this thread a few weeks ago seeking more info on policy and climate change because I've only started reading a broader digest of journals since leaving academia for IT a few years ago and feel like I've missed out on broader (see: political) policy implications.

Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Mar 1, 2016

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