Fantasy Baseball 2016: Draft Mookie

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Baseball 2016: Draft Mookie

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weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Many of us have now been eliminated from the fantasy football playoffs, so it's time to start thinking about 2016 fantasy baseball. This is by far the earliest fantasy baseball thread we've had in this forum but I am already researching 2016 so I figured why not get the ball rolling.

:siren:

For the love of Christ please include all relevant details to your league when asking for advice. Keeper baseball leagues are notorious for having custom/obscure rules so if you want advice on your niche situation, give us the full story.

IcePhoenix posted:

How many teams are in your league?

How many keepers does each team get?

How long are you allowed to keep players?

How much does their cost go up each year?

What does your keeper roster look like before/after the trade?

How many licks does it take to get to the Tootsie Roll center of a Tootsie Pop?

How much is your budget?

Is it a points league?

Head to Head or Roto?

News/Advice:

Razzball - I typically draft using Grey's rankings, and I actually pay money for access to their Stream-O-Nator and HitterTron tools. Grey's daily summary posts are the first thing I read each morning during the season. In my opinion, this is the best fantasy baseball site out there.
FantasyAlarm - Ray Flowers gives very good advice and his rankings are typically solid. Can also follow him on Twitter @BaseballGuys, where he is very active during the season.
FanGraphs - The site you should all be using for your baseball stats. Lots of good articles as well, and the host of Ottoneu (see below.)
Rotoworld - General injury/transaction news geared towards fantasy players.
FantasyPros - Fantasy rankings aggregator.
Ottoneu - I started playing Ottoneu last year and I love it. It's 12 team, 40 player MLB/MiLB dynasty with a $400 salary cap. If you are interested in doing a $50 FanGraphs Points startup league, let me know and I might start a goon league with enough interested parties.

Tools/Projections:

Closer Monkey - Up-to-the-minute depth charts for every bullpen in baseball.
Closer News - I follow these guys and set up Twitter SMS alerts during the season for whenever they tweet. They basically just retweet any mention of bullpen situations by the various beat writers around the league so you can rush to the wire to pick up the next closer when someone gets hurt.
Fantasy Baseball Alerts - Syncs with your Yahoo/ESPN league and will send alerts for your players out of lineup, games cancelled due to weather, and disabled list changes. Email is free, SMS you can pay for.
Smart Fantasy Baseball - If you're interested in learning how to generate your own auction dollar values, or you would like to learn more about using spreadsheets for fantasy baseball, this is the place to start. I went through a lot of the tutorials last winter and learned a ton.
Steamer 2016 - The current Bible for 2016 projections since ZiPS isn't out yet.

Statistics I use a lot:

BABIP - Batting Average on Balls In Play. Both pitchers and hitters have BABIP, and anything significantly over/under .300 is an indicator of good/bad luck, with some exceptions. For example, fast hitters often have high BABIPs because they beat out infield grounders at a higher rate than average.
xFIP - Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. Indicator for how "real" a pitcher's ERA is. This stat is normalized to the same scale as ERA, so if your pitcher's ERA is 4.15 but his xFIP is 3.50, you can typically expect some positive regression going forward.
K/9 and BB/9 - Strikeout and Walk Rates. I am not a huge math/stats nerd so I gravitate to easy-to-understand stats like this when trying to evaluate starting pitchers. Generally the best starting pitchers will have difference between their K/9 and BB/9 of 7 or more. So if a pitcher has an 8.8 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9, that is a fantasy ace. I also try to avoid starters with a K/9 under 7.5 or a BB/9 over 3.

weas fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Feb 15, 2016

# ¿ Dec 10, 2015 19:05

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# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 00:04

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Spoeank posted:

~~someone was dumb enough to let me write for them~~

I wrote a thing exploring BABIP, K-BB% and some players due for positive regression:

http://theinscribermag.com/fantasy-sports/fantasy-baseball-2016-sleeper-pitchers-and-advanced-stats.html

tl;dr - go get Michael Pineda and Rick Porcello

Nice article but Carlos Carrasco doesn't have a Cy Young! Definitely love Pineda this year too.

# ¿ Jan 12, 2016 21:35

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Abel Wingnut posted:

keep 6. 6x6, obp instead of avg, slg and qs added. 225 budget

schwarber - $10
rizzo - $25
donaldson - $30
pollock - $10
conforto - $10
david ortiz - $10
carlos santana - $10

scherzer - $21
carrasco - $10
cueto - $10
stroman - $10
liriano - $10
zimmermann - $10

right now: schwarber, rizzo, donaldson, pollock, conforto, and scherzer

pretty sure on the first four. not sure about conforto. could easily keep ortiz over him. would love to keep scherzer, but carrasco at $10 is pretty great.

thanks in advance.

Keep Carrasco over Conforto, gives you better balance, so you'll have a nice 1-2 punch at the top of your rotation. Do you think Conforto would even go for $10 at auction? I don't, but you know your league better than I do.

Spoeank posted:

And since we're doing keepers, I have to keep three hitters and three pitchers, a bunch of my keeper contracts expired (three years max). Waiver players are last round picks. 7x7 H2H with H & TB and L () and K/BB

Khris Davis, 19
Rougned Odor, W
Kevin Pillar, W
Anthony Rendon, 22 (last year)
Anthony Rizzo, 7 (last year)
Miguel Sano, W
Kyle Schwarber, W

Adam Conley, W
Patrick Corbin, W
Kevin Jepsen, W
Francisco Liriano, 13
Carlos Martinez, W
Andrew Miller, W
Matt Moore, W
Daniel Norris, 21
Vidal Nuno, W
Jake Odorizzi, 21
Carson Smith, W
Drew Smyly, 13
Marcus Stroman, W

Bold is what I'm thinking now, but I haven't done much other than from the gut. I, too, just stream pitchers off the wire.

I'll just redraft Smyly anyway because I just can't quit him.

Your hitters are right on but I'd personally keep Liriano over Corbin. Corbin is almost a streamer type guy, while Liriano hasn't had a K rate under 9 since 2011.

mentholmoose posted:

And while I'm here, I might as well ask for suggestions about my keepers. I can keep up to five players; waiver players are 25th round picks (going up a round each if I keep more than one), it's a 10 team 6x6 (with OPS and H) H2H. What I've definitely decided on is:

Nolan Arenado (15th)
Todd Frazier (21st)
Jacob DeGrom (23rd)
Noah Syndergaard (W)

And then I've narrowed down my last choice to one of the following:

Francisco Lindor (W)
Sonny Gray (8th)
Anthony Rendon (18th)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (W)
Stephen Piscotty (W)

I'm leaning towards Lindor or Gray, and more toward Gray because I think this is the last year I can keep Arenado and Frazier and Gray would definitely help me win this year.

Lindor, and I don't think it's close at all. Gray has had middling peripherals for 2 years in a row now, but people think he's really good because of his lucky low ERA. Steamer is predicting major ERA regression this year so I'm very nervous about Gray.

# ¿ Jan 19, 2016 14:59

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Pretty sure Machado will be eligible at SS in Yahoo this year. I'd take him like, 5th or 6th overall in a snake draft.

Is Yahoo even doing Pro leagues again? I thought they quit doing them to focus on their cut rate DFS product.

Moneyball posted:

Who is the go-to for just raw power numbers at 3B for 2016? Arenado or Donaldson? That's the position I want HR/RBI out of and I will shell out for.

Machado (if he isn't eligible at SS in your league) and Bryant round out the big four 3Bs this year. Todd Frazier and Maikel Franco are power-upside 3Bs to look at if you miss out on the top tier.

weas fucked around with this message at 18:50 on Jan 27, 2016

# ¿ Jan 27, 2016 18:48

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Dandy Kaiser posted:

...but I'm thinking that I should maybe try to break the bank and go after some young hitter with a good keeper value by dangling Hamilton, Kluber, and Braun? A guy has Carlos Correa in the ~20th round and not much else and I would trade those three in a heartbeat to get someone wit his ceiling. Then I could use that extra keeper spot to take a flyer on someone like Nelson or Morales or something stupid just for shits and giggles. I don't know if I'll be able to swing a move though, so what I've got above is probably what I'm going to have to go with. Thoughts?

Hamilton/Kluber/Braun for a keep-forever Correa in the 20th round is pretty clearly a slam-dunk for you but I am skeptical the other owner would take that trade. What are Trout and Harper and Machado's keeper rounds? It's possible Correa is the #1 player in your league in this format with a 20th round keep forever status.

# ¿ Jan 29, 2016 05:24

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Careful with Sano this year guys, 35.5% K rate last season.

# ¿ Feb 3, 2016 21:23

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Dandy Kaiser posted:

A guy wants Kluber and gave me a list of guys he's willing to trade:

12. Rendon
18. Buxton
18. Schwarber
19. Springer
22. Gallo

Should I make a move here? Would getting Schwarber and Springer/Buxton/Gallo for Kluber and then flipping Hamilton and/or Braun for another pitcher and/or draft picks be better than what I have?

Schwarber AND Springer for Kluber?? :gizz:

# ¿ Feb 5, 2016 18:26

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

I don't see Miller being the closer at all this year if Aroldis stays healthy.

# ¿ Feb 9, 2016 17:28

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Yahoo's rankings right now are terrible so I'd have no problem drafting a team this early. They will adjust them at least 2 more times before opening day based on ADP data and industry pressure so the deals you see today won't be around in March.

The flip side is that people drafting this early are probably more likely to be sharks? I am not sure if that is true but something to consider.

# ¿ Feb 10, 2016 18:21

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Doltos posted:

Who are the sleepers I should be targeting this year? I literally have no idea and playing a poo poo ton of OOTP didn't help me either.

All these guys are ranked outside the top 100 on Yahoo and are guys I am targeting: Lance McCullers, Jonathan Schoop, Taijuan Walker, Carlos Rodon, Delino Deshields, Joc Pederson, Rougned Odor, Michael Conforto.

# ¿ Feb 11, 2016 14:53

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

IcePhoenix posted:

Can we put this post in the OP as an example of why you need to include league settings (including keeper rules) instead of just asking an open ended question?

Quoted you in the OP, great point.

# ¿ Feb 15, 2016 20:27

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Doltos posted:

What round is good to target the younger Seager brother in YahooPro20 standard rotisserrie?

Yahoo has him at 105 overall but I have no problem taking him in the 60s. I wouldn't take him over Xander though (77 on Yahoo). I would guess Xander will go in the 6-7th in pro drafts but hard to say.

# ¿ Feb 16, 2016 20:59

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Poque posted:

Hitting categories: R, RBI, SB, OPS
Pitching categories: IP, ERA, WHIP, K.

Rotisserie league. Hard start limit at 162. 12 teams in the league, $260 budget, 25 roster spots (13 hitting, 9 pitching, 3 bench).

Our keepers escalate ($1 for the first, $4 for the second, $8 for the third, $13 for the fourth, and so on).

My keeper candidates who I am considering are Rizzo ($8 base), Arrieta ($13), Odor ($2), Marte ($24), Blackmon ($18), Piscotty ($5), Dozier ($10).

My current thought is keeping:
Rizzo at $9
Odor at $6
Arrieta at $21

and dumping the rest. The +$13 is prohibitive on anybody else and those are the three in that listing who feel to me like they could continue on into 2017, so I want to keep their costs lower. Any thoughts?

I think this is the right decision. I'd also target Marte and Blackmon again in the draft with those categories, both are borderline top 20 hitters in your league.

# ¿ Feb 17, 2016 16:41

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

SilvergunSuperman posted:

What do you guys think of Mazara in a dynasty context?

I feel like he's going to be a megastar, currently trying to trade for him (we play 20 man 7x7 with OBP and SLG)

Love him in dynasty. I am not sure he'll see more than 200 ABs in 2016 but should be a full-time starter in 2017 at 22 years old.

# ¿ Feb 19, 2016 20:24

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Doltos posted:

Ok finished the draft and got this team in YahooPro20 standard settings rotis:

C - Salvador Perez
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Jonathan Schoop
SS - Starlin Castro
3B - Todd Frazier
OF - Bryce Harper
OF - Mookie Betts
OF - George Springer
Util - Eric Hosmer
Util - Gregory Polanco
BN - Kyle Seager
BN - Brandon Belt
BN - Khris Davis
BN - Howie Kendrick

SP - Carlos Carrasco
SP - Tyson Ross
RP - Keone Kela
RP - Corey Knebel
P - Raisel Iglesias
P - Taijuan Walker
P - Patrick Corbin
P - Kyle Hendricks
BN - Wei-Yin Chen

Loooooooooooooooooooooove this team nice work.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2016 21:11

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Doltos posted:

Should I drop Kendrick for Story in standard 12 team Rotis? Kendrick seems more steady but I like Story being in Colorado and everything, plus his minor numbers aren't terrible.

Story isn't going to be up until June (even when Reyes is suspended) so I can't imagine keeping him rostered that long in 12 team mixed.

# ¿ Mar 8, 2016 14:50

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

I thought he was on the Cubs, did he get traded?

# ¿ Mar 9, 2016 23:29

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Do the "Win 6-4 every week" H2H teams actually work full-season? Always seemed to me like a recipe to having a .500 team since you can't do better than 6 wins in any week, but you can certainly do worse if some bad luck comes your way.

# ¿ Mar 11, 2016 21:01

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

bewbies posted:

Draft strategy question:

My BIG MONEY LEAGUE runs on CBS: 10 teams, no keeper, H2H points. One roster spot per position, one utility, 5 SPs, 2 RPs, basically everything counts for points, rules are here.

I've done pretty well in this league the last few years following my iron law of points leagues, which is to get a 200 IP/200k SP early no matter what. I'm reviewing this scoring system though and I'm starting to think that maybe punting SPs in the draft and rolling them is a better option than drafting big arms early.

Why I think this might be a good idea: 1) the short benches and small league mean that quality is very important. 2) #1 means that decent 2-start pitchers with good matchups are usually pretty easy to find.

Why I think this might be a bad idea: 1) the top couple of scoring players are almost always elite SPs, and by a decent margin. 2) The lack of depth means I can find reasonable fill-ins for pretty much any position.

So, what would you do? Obviously if ~~Greinke~~/Arrieta/Kershaw are there in the 2nd or something I take them, but assuming nothing weird happens would you punt SPing? If so, how far down?

eh I probably still wouldn't take Greinke

I couldn't get into your league settings to see them without joining the league, but if I were you I'd run the settings through this http://www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx (there is a Roto and Points tab) and see what it spits out.

# ¿ Mar 14, 2016 14:47

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Doltos posted:

This trade is in the process of going through in my league

Team A gives:
Dustin Pedroia
Manny Machado
Kevin Pillar
Steven Piscotty

Team B gives:
Rougned Odor
Charlie Blackmon
Yasiel Puig
Justin Turner
Jason Hammel

I think this is total trade rape but I'm not sure. Puig might bounce back but Blackmon feels like he's going to get traded and Odor seems overrated. Pillar and Piscotty seem like good assets too.

Team A wins, just look at auction values. Assuming this is your Yahoo standard league: Pedroia ~$5 Pillar ~$5 Piscotty ~$1 Machado $35-40. Odor ~$10, Blackmon ~$25, Puig ~$20, Turner ~$1, Hammel ~$5. You might not believe in Odor/Blackmon/Puig but lots of people do.

# ¿ Mar 17, 2016 18:30

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

weas posted:

Story isn't going to be up until June (even when Reyes is suspended) so I can't imagine keeping him rostered that long in 12 team mixed.

Ignore this idiot.

# ¿ Mar 21, 2016 14:33

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

euphronius posted:

I love this new era of high drafting 22-23 yos with less than 1000 PAs.

Should be the thread title.

# ¿ Mar 24, 2016 13:36

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

bewbies posted:

Someone offered me Kinsler for Springer straight up (standard h2h). Current 2B is Odor.

Someone talk me out of this.

Why would you trade a 25/25 OF for a 10/10 2B.

# ¿ Mar 24, 2016 17:02

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

@MLBNetworkRadio AJ Hinch announces that Luke Gregerson will be club's "primary closer"

If he is still on your wire go get him.

# ¿ Apr 4, 2016 15:20

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Ahh trade veto chat...the season must be underway!

# ¿ Apr 4, 2016 21:25

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

MinibarMatchman posted:

as a person who only has erick aybar, I would have been crazy to not drop pedro alvarez and pick up jean segura at this point, right? figured there's no way I can pass this up if he's red hot, might actually be good again, and aybar blows poo poo. Helps that I already have rizzo/byung-ho/shaw clogging up 1b and a bench spot anyways.

Yeah pick up Segura.

# ¿ Apr 8, 2016 14:23

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

IcePhoenix posted:

WTS Trevor Story looking for 5x Zod

plz open trade window so i can leave game

# ¿ Apr 11, 2016 17:57

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

DeepDickPizza posted:

Rizzo is going to be the NL MVP, so take that trade at your own peril.

# ¿ Apr 11, 2016 22:52

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

bewbies posted:

So I have this guy who really, REALLY wants Carrasco and Mazara, he's sent me like 5 uninteresting trades for those two in the last 48 hours. The latest one was KRod/Polanco/Jose Fernandez for Mazara/Carrasco/Rondon. I'm not interested in that, but I feel like I could leverage his extreme interest into something useful.

His roster:

Grandal
Cabrera
Cano
Beltre
Correa
Cespedes
CarGo
Polanco
Ad. Gonzalez

Cueto
J Fernandez
Iglesias
Liriano
Quintana
Rodney
K Rod
Chen
Ramirez
Teheran
Chapman

Anyone see any interesting counter offers in that?

I'd much rather have Fernandez/Polanco than Carrasco/Mazara so I think you're pretty close personally.

# ¿ Apr 14, 2016 16:05

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

I am starting to be afraid that a fake DL stint is coming for Harvey so he can fix his mechanics.

# ¿ Apr 17, 2016 15:52

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Delino Deshields has 60 steal speed and could probably be had for a fair price.

# ¿ Apr 20, 2016 15:10

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

I think James Shields is pretty ownable, especially in a 15 teamer. He's pitched in 3 games so far and if you take out the @COL game (which nobody started him in anyway) he's been alright.

# ¿ Apr 20, 2016 17:08

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

I'd normally be all over buying low on Archer but baseball twitter has me concerned:

@jasoncollette
Last 10 starts for Archer: 50.2 IP, 63 hits, 31 BB, 10 HRs, 6.39 ERA, .300 avg, .500 SLG. Each '16 outing multiplies concerns IMO

@jasoncollette
Thing with Archer is he's had FB command issues, but could fall back on slider. Now, that pitch is betraying him too; not pretty to watch

# ¿ Apr 21, 2016 03:10

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Anyone else moving on from Pineda?

# ¿ Apr 25, 2016 14:32

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

I just dropped Ketel for Diaz.

# ¿ Apr 25, 2016 20:38

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

DoctaFun posted:

I might drop adam wainwright tomorrow. Someone talk me down from this ledge or confirm that he's garbage now.

Waino sucks, lose him.

# ¿ Apr 28, 2016 14:39

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Waino is old and his injury last year has masked his decline. 7 K/9 in 2014 was a huge red flag for me going into 2015, and he's only gotten worse since then. There are a million decent pitchers on waivers in most leagues and 8 K/9 Waino isn't coming back.

# ¿ Apr 28, 2016 15:42

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

Moneyball posted:

Would anyone be interested in a rest of the season league? But rather than force anyone to devote more attention to another league, it would literally be set and forget. No roster moves, no replacements, nothing. Not even benching. Win at the draft and with luck.

Betting on Greinke to rebound? Think Story can keep it up? Will your #1 starter blow their arm out? Draft accordingly!

I'm thinking it would be a standard roto league. H2H would be teams trying to corner the market on stats, punting, etc (and I would be one of them!) and points would be people loading up on SP with all their spots unless max IP was set reasonably low.

Though at least in H2H someone would draft Dee

I'd probably do this hah.

# ¿ May 2, 2016 15:45

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

I joined. Sunday night isn't great for me to draft (30 minutes before Game of Thrones airs!) I'd rather do the draft like, TONIGHT but whatever works.

# ¿ May 2, 2016 17:26

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# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 00:04

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

I had to draft on a tablet and I couldn't remember who all the current closers are. Whoops!

# ¿ May 3, 2016 03:19

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Baseball 2016: Draft Mookie

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